Do the 2020 Bucs pose a greater threat to KC than the 2019 49ers did?

[WideRight]

Yes. They have Brady. SF had the guy NE moved to keep Brady in place longer.

[MrOaktown_56]

10 minutes ago, showtime said:

Mahomes >>>

It's a bit of an oversimplification. He has turf toe as well. He's not 100% either.

Look, I think the Chiefs very well could still win this game. Because I know people will quote me if they win. But it's not going to be some walk in the park.

Especially when they are the very banged up team and the Bucs are getting a ton of players back as well.

[showtime]

Just now, MrOaktown_56 said:

It's a bit of an oversimplification. He has turf toe as well. He's not 100% either.

Look, I think the Chiefs very well could still win this game. Because I know people will quote me if they win. But it's not going to be some walk in the park.

Especially when they are the very banged up team and the Bucs are getting a ton of players back as well.

You seem like you're giving a fair outlook on the game. I know Mahomes is hurt and the Chiefs offensive line is banged up, but he's still the best player I've ever seen. The Chiefs can def lose this game because it's a single game elimination, but I'm expecting them to win.

[Forge]

23 minutes ago, showtime said:

I'd say yes just because QB play is so huge and Brady is just so much better than Jimmy G.

Source? 

[J-ALL-DAY]

I think the 2019 49ers would be the favorite over this Bucs team but due to the injuries on the KC OL, the challenge is about the same. 

 

 

[MrOaktown_56]

11 minutes ago, showtime said:

You seem like you're giving a fair outlook on the game. I know Mahomes is hurt and the Chiefs offensive line is banged up, but he's still the best player I've ever seen. The Chiefs can def lose this game because it's a single game elimination, but I'm expecting them to win.

To be honest, I cant really root for either team. 

As much as I hate the man, you can never count Tom Brady out. 

[Magnifico]

24 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

That's entirely fair - and you're giving Reid 2 weeks to prepare, if there's anyone who can mitigate it, it's Reid.   But it's undoubtedly a huge difference.  Keep in mind Vea did not play vs. KC, either - that adds a huge wrinkle (as the LB blitz White started doing after the LAR L).

It's after the LAR game that DC Todd Bowles finally scrapped the zone blitz, zone-scheme, and went to a 5-man blitz, with different directional schemes and stunts, which was far more successful after their L to LAR - going zone and no pressure vs. Goff was a massive mistake - but DC Bowles gets a ton of credit for learning and adapting to his team's strengths.   It's a huge reason why the Bucs are playing this week - the D has carried them this far the past 2 weeks, as much as the O is better from last year (whereas Brady & co. picked up the D in WC weekend, where Bowles played way too conservatively - but again, give credit where it's due - he learned & adapted).   

The thing is with KC, you can't be conservative, on O or on D (doesn't mean you only throw, it means you don't play for the FG, or you play for 3rd and short on D, etc.).  You can live or die with big plays, but you can't hope for them to simply make a mistake on O.   The biggest hopeful sign for Buc fans is that the last 2 weeks, and since the LAR L (the WAS game being a notable exception), DC Bowles has changed to an aggressive scheme.    In the first KC game, it's pretty clear Davis can't cover Hill on his own.   It's likely going to be Dean with safety help, this time.  Still, Hill & Hardman are the keys to KC winning the game - as MVS showed, the one Achilles their D has, is the deep ball.  Hill showed that in spades too.  

Great insight.

But surely the Man Blitz is fine against the Saints, who have weapons to win but had a QB who couldn't get the ball there quickly enough and their #1 WR was playing banged up. (and still the Saints were in that game and driving for a score to take the lead till the Cook fumble), is fine against the Packers; who outside of Devante, who your bracket with a safety, your happy playing everyone else 1 vs 1. (Plus Devante had the oppurtunity to do more damage).

I just don't see how you play Man or go with the Man Blitz, obviously not 100% of the time, against Hill and Kelce and expect to win that often. I guess you hope to get to Mahomes before then but Kelce wins so quickly over the middle/in the short and intermediate game, and is great at YAC, and Hill's speed is ridiculous that your playing with fire there. That before considering if Watkins returns also?

I want KC to win. As I said before the playoff's begun Brady has more than enough rings. Just want a good game.

[Archimedes]

There seems to be a bit of recency bias here. The Niners were a much better team wire to wire during the RS than the Bucs, and were much more dominant in the playoffs. The Chiefs hung almost 500 yards on the Bucs the first time they played and were a couple of errors away from hanging 40+ on them. Losing Fisher is big, but I don’t think it’s THAT big.

Anything can happen in a single elimination game format, but I definitely think the Niners were the bigger challenge.

[MrOaktown_56]

Just now, Archimedes said:

There seems to be a bit of recency bias here. The Niners were a much better team wire to wire during the RS than the Bucs, and were much more dominant in the playoffs. The Chiefs hung almost 500 yards on the Bucs the first time they played and were a couple of errors away from hanging 40+ on them. Losing Fisher is big, but I don’t think it’s THAT big.

Anything can happen in a single elimination game format, but I definitely think the Niners were the bigger challenge.

The big difference is Tom Brady and Jimmy G IMO. They're levels upon levels apart.

[Broncofan]

Just now, MrOaktown_56 said:

The big difference is Tom Brady and Jimmy G IMO. They're levels upon levels apart.

And the KC OL missing 4 of last year's starters on the OL, and Mahomes being mortal in his mobility.   It's less about 49ers/Bucs there.

[ASmithFan1010]

I think the 2019 were a much better team than the 2020 Bucs.  I am still really high on that team. 

[y*so*blu]

Brady's the better QB, but the Niners were the better team. So the logical answer is no, the Bucs don't pose a greater threat and are likely to lose by 10+.

But once again, it's Tom Brady.

[Archimedes]

11 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

The big difference is Tom Brady and Jimmy G IMO. They're levels upon levels apart.

Shrugs. I guess. Brady threw 3 terrible picks in the NFCCG. He’s been solid and smart, but I haven’t exactly been exactly blown away with him in the postseason. He’s better, but I don’t think there’s much difference between the current version of Brady and the version of Jimmy G we saw last year for the Niners.

[Broncofan]

20 minutes ago, Magnifico said:

Great insight.

But surely the Man Blitz is fine against the Saints, who have weapons to win but had a QB who couldn't get the ball there quickly enough and their #1 WR was playing banged up. (and still the Saints were in that game and driving for a score to take the lead till the Cook fumble), is fine against the Packers; who outside of Devante, who your bracket with a safety, your happy playing everyone else 1 vs 1. (Plus Devante had the oppurtunity to do more damage).

I just don't see how you play Man or go with the Man Blitz, obviously not 100% of the time, against Hill and Kelce and expect to win that often. I guess you hope to get to Mahomes before then but Kelce wins so quickly over the middle/in the short and intermediate game, and is great at YAC, and Hill's speed is ridiculous that your playing with fire there. That before considering if Watkins returns also?

I want KC to win. As I said before the playoff's begun Brady has more than enough rings. Just want a good game.

To be clear, TAM can't just play cover-man, blitz on each play.  The point was that DC Bowles can't play "don't lose, wait for 3rd and short" type ball that BUF played.   They will need to show different looks, and be unpredictable.  But the only way to beat KC is to make Mahomes uncomfortable on O, and make enough big plays it prevents converting 3rd downs.   Sacks, tipped balls, etc.  That's usually an impossible task with that OL, and even when the OL struggles, Mahomes' magic pulls a rabbit out of the hat.   We have clear issues with both aspects there.  That's honestly the main reason why there's a path to a Tampa W.

KC deserves to be a road favorite.  They've earned it.  But the spread of -3 is justified, because the matchups are so very different this year - and not just Tampa-SF, but also on KC 2019-KC 2020.  No one is guaranteeing a Tampa win - but the sentiment this isn't a close matchup, man, I don't see that at all.

Edited January 25, 2021 by Broncofan

[Chiefer]

41 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

It's a bit of an oversimplification. He has turf toe as well. He's not 100% either.

Look, I think the Chiefs very well could still win this game. Because I know people will quote me if they win. But it's not going to be some walk in the park.

Especially when they are the very banged up team and the Bucs are getting a ton of players back as well.

I honestly thought he almost looked better without the extra mobility. He was manipulating that pocket, methodical and decisive. Offense really switched on once he stopped trying to extend and run around all the time. 
 

granted I’d rather have him at full strength(as well as the OL) but his arm talent is still very much aLive and well.