Do the 2020 Bucs pose a greater threat to KC than the 2019 49ers did?

[BayRaider]

4 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

It’s Brady vs Mahomes it’s gonna be a classic. Even the last one was really close at the end 

Agreed. This will be a 2 or 3 point game either way. Maybeee 4 points but I doubt it. 

[SalvadorsDeli]

The Niners were a missed Jimmy G throw away from probably winning the Super Bowl last year. 

If Brady ends up in that same scenario, does anyone think he's going to miss?

[BigTrav]

13 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Because matchups change. I had KC beating Baltimore and Buffalo in my bracket, which Kansas City matches up ridiculously well with. I would of also picked Kansas City against Tennessee, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh. 
 

Cleveland was the only team that matched up well with Kansas City. 
 

I’m sure you can understand this logic. 

No, I can't understand the logic of picking a superbowl of KC vs TB pre season and during season, then at the first opportunity putting a team to knock KC out. THEN going "look I have KC vs TB as my superbowl!"

That isn't logic my friend. It's the opposite. 

[BayRaider]

9 hours ago, BigTrav said:

No, I can't understand the logic of picking a superbowl of KC vs TB pre season and during season, then at the first opportunity putting a team to knock KC out. THEN going "look I have KC vs TB as my superbowl!"

That isn't logic my friend. It's the opposite. 

Then your mind is too simple to understand complexity. 
 

For example let’s say you have Kansas City vs Tampa Bay as your bracket but Tampa beats Green Bay and New Orleans in your bracket, but instead they get matched up vs King Kong who has beatin them 45-0 twice in the Regular season, I think you are going to pick King Kong. If you picked Tampa, for the sole reason of your bracket, that makes zero sense. 
 

It doesn’t change the fact my bracket Super Bowl Prediction was correct. And that my real-time Divisional Round Prediction was wrong. 
 

For example, if the Browns won, I wouldn’t be claiming my Super Bowl Prediction was correct, at any point. Understand?

Edited January 27, 2021 by BayRaider

[Awsi Dooger]

I thought the 49ers had a great chance due to contrast. When I was a kid contrast defined the NFL. That's when Any Given Sunday was legitimate. You had passing teams and blue collar running teams, and would face them on an even and alternating basis.

These days due to the ridiculous rules changes coddling the passing game there is no contrast. It is one pantyhose passing team after another. That's why the top teams in the league win 13+ games even without looking dominant. All they have to do is dismiss some stupid team trying to play the same way they do, but with a markedly lesser quarterback and passing game.

Same applies to the Super Bowl. There simply is not enough contrast to bother Kansas City. The Chiefs won't get stuck at 10 points deep into the 4th quarter. Plus the regular season victory is huge, although not as decisive as Kansas City's early win over Buffalo. When you have beaten a team at their place in a big game and then face them at home later, all the energy and motivation is with the home team to punch them in the mouth again and verify the pecking order. That's why it's not surprising in the least that Kansas City played its best game in months against Buffalo. I emphasized the Fury of Anti-Revenge angle prior to that game. It is the single most dominant situational factor in American sports. Once I found it in the late '80s I was able to explain countless prior results that made no sense to me at the time.

This time it's on the road so the edge is considerably less, but it's still got that playground mentality of fastest kid on the block is already established. Besides, the emerging great teams almost always win more decisively the second time. Green Bay struggled in the first half of Super Bowl I then toyed with Oakland the following year. The Dolphins dismissed Minnesota in 1973 considerably more decisively than the Redskins in 1972. Pittsburgh was sluggish against the Vikings in 1974 then much crisper against Dallas the following year, even though both games were close. The 49ers obliterated Denver in 1989 after needing a desperate late minute rally against the Bengals in 1988. Dallas was maybe an exception in 1993 versus Buffalo but once they got going that game turned into a rout also.

This Chiefs team looks to be anything but a one and done. Therefore I would expect them to play extremely well. The one chance Tampa Bay does have is that Brady makes his team immune from the low scoring or mid scoring defeat. I detailed that a month or two ago. that Brady only lost 34 times in 283 regular season games with New England when the opponent scored 27 or fewer. Belichick without Brady loses 1 in 2 games against 27 or fewer, compared to that 1 in 8 when he had Brady.

Kansas City needs to score. There is no reason to believe it won't happen. I am more than willing to align with ability while others align with matchups. 

[Broncofan]

10 hours ago, BigTrav said:

No, I can't understand

You're welcome.

 

 

(For the rest of the audience...)

 

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by Broncofan

[7DnBrnc53]

46 minutes ago, Awsi Dooger said:

This time it's on the road so the edge is considerably less, but it's still got that playground mentality of fastest kid on the block is already established. Besides, the emerging great teams almost always win more decisively the second time. Green Bay struggled in the first half of Super Bowl I then toyed with Oakland the following year. The Dolphins dismissed Minnesota in 1973 considerably more decisively than the Redskins in 1972. Pittsburgh was sluggish against the Vikings in 1974 then much crisper against Dallas the following year, even though both games were close. The 49ers obliterated Denver in 1989 after needing a desperate late minute rally against the Bengals in 1988. Dallas was maybe an exception in 1993 versus Buffalo but once they got going that game turned into a rout also.

I think that explains a lot of what happened during the AFC's 13 years of futility, especially in Buffalo's and Denver's cases. They lost one, and it snowballed. Also, the teams that went to one in that streak and didn't return (85 Pats, 88 Bengals, 94 Chargers) had very little SB experience (although the 88 Bengals had a little from 1981).

[ASmithFan1010]

23 hours ago, BayRaider said:

49ers D >> Bucs D, but I’d say it’s closer than people think. Bucs have the #1 Run D in Football going off DVOA, and their Pass Defense is still about Top 8, they just tend to give up a couple bombs a game like clockwork. I said they’d dominate the Packers but give up a bomb to Scantling, which basically happened. Also, the Bucs Defensive Line can dominate most Offensive Lines. And the Chiefs Offensive Line is pretty suspect. 
 

Now let’s get to the offense.... 2020 Bucs beat the 2020 49ers in almost every position. Especially QB. 43 year old Tom Brady >>>>>> Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy missed a couple big throws and made some boneheaded decisions. Fournette and Ronald Jones > 49ers 2019 RB’s. And Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown is a million times better receiving core. Kittle >>>> Brate/Gronk, and Shanahan >>> Arians, but Brady is in command of the offense anyways and running more of his own scheme with Arians scheme topped on. Plus Arians is more aggressive than Shanahan. OL is pretty even. Bucs get the Pass Protection nod and 49ers get the Run Blocking nod. Overall, Bucs have the better line I’d say. 

 

 

- The 2019 49ers defense was a good amount better than the 2020 Bucs.  

Yards Allowed - 49ers (2nd) 280 vs Bucs (9th) 330.  

Points Per Game - 49ers (7th) 19.5 vs Bucs (9th) 22.3

Takeaways - 49ers (4th) 1.8 vs Bucs (2nd) 1.7

3rd Down conversions - 49ers (2nd) 3.9 vs Tampa (19th) 5.4

 

- The 2020 Bucs are a better offense but it isn't that much better.

Points Per Game - Tampa (2nd) 30.6 vs  49ers (3rd) 29.6

Yards Per Game - Tampa (6th) 385 vs 49ers (8th) 374.2

 

- 2020 Tom Brady is not head and shoulders above 2019 Jimmy G.

This is based on production. Jimmy G was in pretty much the perfect situation for a QB in 2019.  He had two great YAC players, an unstoppable run game for easy play action, a guru calling plays for him, and an elite defense.  His numbers were above-average although he threw way too many INTs.  He was 8th in QB rating, 9th in AY/A, 6th in TDs, 4th in Completion %.  I remember him being a slightly above avg QB in 2019 in the 10-15 range.  Brady is definitely better but Brady is in the top 4-8 range.  Is he a definite upgrade: yes.  Is he head and shoulders better? No.

- The 2019 49ers run game was significantly better than the 2020 Bucs.

Yards Per Game: 49ers (6th) 4.7 vs Bucs (26th) 4.1

Rush TD per Game: 49ers (1st)  1.6 vs Bucs (16th) 1 

The 49ers run game was unstoppable.  

[Troy Brown]

On 1/25/2021 at 10:00 AM, ChazStandard said:

I do not get why people talk like this.

I've been a NE fan for 15 years and in that time they had a 75% chance of winning any game they played, including the playoffs, and yet not once did I ever publicly predict a definite win, let alone be so smug about it. One of two things can happen, you win and you look like an arrogant gasbag boasting about something you literally contributed nothing to, or you lose and look like an idiot.

Maybe it's because I experienced the 2007 Superbowl when I was still young and impressionable, but nothing good ever comes from overconfidence, and there's literally no game ever you can definitely predict the result of.

EDIT: On topic, top to bottom the 49ers were probably a better team, and certainly better built to take down a high powered offense and keep them off the field. The D lines are comparable, but the 9ers secondary was better and their running game was infinitely stronger. That said you'd argue TB have the advantage in two or three areas - their WR corps is 10x better than SF, they have a QB who thrives under pressure, and though Shanahan might be better play designer offensive mind than Arians, Arians will not coach scared.

yasss king, after the 07 superbowl, most intelligent pats fans never guaranteed anything ever again 

[Chiefer]

18 hours ago, BigTrav said:

No, I can't understand the logic of picking a superbowl of KC vs TB pre season and during season, then at the first opportunity putting a team to knock KC out. THEN going "look I have KC vs TB as my superbowl!"

That isn't logic my friend. It's the opposite. 

I mean cmon the guy is a Raider fan. I don’t hold it against him to think we’d lose at the first opportunity, 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Chiefer

[sryan66611]

7 hours ago, ASmithFan1010 said:

 

 

- The 2019 49ers defense was a good amount better than the 2020 Bucs.  

Yards Allowed - 49ers (2nd) 280 vs Bucs (9th) 330.  

Points Per Game - 49ers (7th) 19.5 vs Bucs (9th) 22.3

Takeaways - 49ers (4th) 1.8 vs Bucs (2nd) 1.7

3rd Down conversions - 49ers (2nd) 3.9 vs Tampa (19th) 5.4

 

- The 2020 Bucs are a better offense but it isn't that much better.

Points Per Game - Tampa (2nd) 30.6 vs  49ers (3rd) 29.6

Yards Per Game - Tampa (6th) 385 vs 49ers (8th) 374.2

 

- 2020 Tom Brady is not head and shoulders above 2019 Jimmy G.

This is based on production. Jimmy G was in pretty much the perfect situation for a QB in 2019.  He had two great YAC players, an unstoppable run game for easy play action, a guru calling plays for him, and an elite defense.  His numbers were above-average although he threw way too many INTs.  He was 8th in QB rating, 9th in AY/A, 6th in TDs, 4th in Completion %.  I remember him being a slightly above avg QB in 2019 in the 10-15 range.  Brady is definitely better but Brady is in the top 4-8 range.  Is he a definite upgrade: yes.  Is he head and shoulders better? No.

- The 2019 49ers run game was significantly better than the 2020 Bucs.

Yards Per Game: 49ers (6th) 4.7 vs Bucs (26th) 4.1

Rush TD per Game: 49ers (1st)  1.6 vs Bucs (16th) 1 

The 49ers run game was unstoppable.  

I agree with you about the Defense being better and the Run game is wayyyy better than the Bucs...      The thing I don't agree with is Tom Brady isn't 100% head and shoulders better than Jimmy G.    I mean

Jimmy G  stats  27TD / 13INT  3900 yards 69% comp  

Brady stats?  40TD / 12INT  4600 yards 65% COMP

 

That seems like head and shoulders above Jimmy G to me

[SkippyX]

Both teams had 48 sacks and lots of good pass rushers inside and out, so that's a wash 

• Barrett has 30 1/2 sacks in his last 34 games.
• JPP has 20 in his last 29 games
• Both teams have outstanding dynamic LBs.
• Both teams got good safety play (we will have to see if both guys play in 2 weeks)
• In theory SF had better CB play, then Sherm choked (it was glorious)

 

On offense I don't think its close. SF had slightly better stats than Tampa counting all 16 games and dividing by 16.

• That's not what this Tamps team is.
  • Brady since December has been locked in. (how rare for him 😄)
  • Brady always gets better and he did not have a preseason with a new team.
  • Brown has 5 TDs since the start of December.

 

There are some questions as to who plays and how healthy they are, but if Brown is healthy then this Bucs offense is better than last year's 49ers.

 

This offense also just went through the 4/2 , 5/4 , and 13/9 defenses (all on the road)

• KC's 10/16 D is better than their numbers and has stars in Jones and Honey Badger, but its not like a good D will shock them.

They did it without Brown last week, without Jones against WFT, and with banged up players who should be better rested up with the extra week.

Edited January 28, 2021 by SkippyX

[SkippyX]

I had KC winning like 55 out of 100 times last year in a close matchup.

This year its like 52 out of 100 for Tampa IMO (I will adjust once we know who is playing)

• This includes knowing the health of CEH and Watkins

FWIW, I think this Tampa team would beat that SF team by 10. (mostly because they are so good against the run and they get pressure with 4)

 

I get that Hill is that super rare Healthy and consistent Desean Jackson type (DJ is neither) and its hard to compare him.

All 3 Tampa WR have a legit shot at 100 TD careers. (Brown has 79 at age 32, Evans has 61 at 27 and Godwin already has 24 at 24)

• Its very hard to project Goodwin already but he is playing at that pace.

Brady is not at Mahomes level but he is the most clutch human on the planet even at 43.

• 47 TDs to 13 picks in 19 games

Gronk is not 2017 Gronk but he can be for 3 or 4 plays.

 

Tampa a tough matchup for anyone, but KC is a hell of a team with the current best player at QB, the current best TE, and a legit top 5 WR with ludicrous speed.

[Bolts223]

11 hours ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

I think that explains a lot of what happened during the AFC's 13 years of futility, especially in Buffalo's and Denver's cases. They lost one, and it snowballed. Also, the teams that went to one in that streak and didn't return (85 Pats, 88 Bengals, 94 Chargers) had very little SB experience (although the 88 Bengals had a little from 1981).

It was a combination of the AFC being weak and the NFC having some super insane teams at the top in the 80's and 90's. (Big Blue Wrecking Crew Giants, Montana/Young 49ers, Cowboys Dynasty, Gibbs Redskins, 85 Bears, etc)

Despite that 13 year streak this game will decide who leads the series in SB's. (Both conferences are tied at 27-27)

AFC won almost all the SB's in the 70's/early 80's and has won most of the SB's since 1997.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Bolts223

[Bolts223]

On 1/25/2021 at 12:56 PM, Archimedes said:

 The Niners were a much better team wire to wire during the RS than the Bucs, and were much more dominant in the playoffs.

 

Eh.

This doesn't always matter. Look at the 2018 Patriots - had some horrible losses in the regular season but looked like vintage Patriots in the playoffs.

And while the 49ers looked more dominant in the playoffs, they were a 1-seed playing at home off a first round bye. The Buccaneers are a wild card team that had to play 3-straight road games.

 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Bolts223