2021 Off-Season Talk: Coaches, free agents, extensions etc

[Trentwannabe]

All off-season talk can go here!

What do the Bills need to do to take the next step and compete with a team like KC?

[soflbillsfan]

The bills dline needs to be revamped, being the highest paid group in the NFL offered little to no help in the playoffs. Hughes while having a decent year is 33 years old and can clear cap, I expect the same for addison, not a big fan of jefferson and with Star coming back no need to pay butler. I think you take the 25-30 mil you free up by letting those 4 guy, you then have Oliver, Johnson, Zimmer, Star, Phillips, and Epenesa. Then in free agency go for a young stud at pass rusher (some will be tempted to look at JJ Watt but being 32 years old and injury prone, his pricetag of 17 mil is not worth it, if he takes a 2 year 10 mil deal I am all for him locking up the LDE side but I do not see that happening) and draft dlineman. The biggest difference against the run this year then last year was because of Star, as much as I disliked the guy I realized how impactful he was last year to this year. While Milano has been a key to some packages his injury history and asking price worries me if he is willing to bet on himself this offseason to play 1 more year in buffalo on a low deal I say make the swing and see what happens but with guys coming up with big extensions such as Edmunds I do not see it smart to pay both LBs top money while other positions suffer. So its either a 1 year prove it deal or let him walk as some other team may be willing to offer what he is seeking.

As for offense the run game is horrid, some can be blamed on the oline but singletary just doesn't have it and you could see when Yeldon got the ball he was able to make plays for 5-7 yards, singletary just runs in to a wall and doesnt have the instinct to find or hit the hole. I think you keep singletary and moss but you find the stud rb you need that can make the moves. RB is definitely important and should be top on the list of needs. BPA is definitely the route to take on pick 29/30 if RB is in the mix of BPA and need I say pull the trigger, guys like Harris and Etienne are game changers and can be the back we so desperately need. KC made the move for CEH and it was the right thing to do as that was another weapon for Mahomes to excel in on the offense.

I also would like to look at a different RB coach as we were 20th in the run and Duce Staley is looking to move on from the Eagles in which I would love for him to come in and be RB coach as it would be an upgrade to what they currently have. Also both Daboll and Dorsey were looked at by other teams for HC and OC jobs so it may be ideal to look at Staley to be a RB coach and Run game coordinator in case they get scooped up next year he can be the OC in waiting or CO-OC with Dorsey if he sticks around.

Feliciano and Daryl Williams need to be looked at re-signing, not much out there for upgrades however if Feliciano does move on then Joe Thuney could be an option and move Ford back to RG, with Ike playing back up. I think Williams held up well against guys like TJ Watt, he did struggle last night but the entire oline was overwhelmed and that has to come down to coaching and execution in which was beat on both phases. Finally as we saw last night a TE that can be above average take this offense to the next level. While we can continue to hope and wait on Knox I don't see it. Kroft is a FA, and was healthy scratched for several weeks so he is definitely someone to move on from. Then you have Gilliam, Smith, and Sweeney, none scream #1 TE in pass catch. I hated Smith last year but this year he has stepped up and has turned a new leaf where he has been decent at pass block and was able to get a couple of passes his way. Ideally the #1 FA player this team should be focused on is Hunter Henry. Look at guys like Tampa who have Brate, Gronk, and Howard who have been great pieces to their offense. Look at what Hooper has done for Mayfield, Allen needs this guy with him and knox it can be of benefit. Ertz, while injury prone is likely to be let go and seeking a new team, he is a back up option to Henry. 

All in all this team is on the right track and with both the Patriots and Jets in disarray, while the Dolphins have some major holes to fill on offense including the question of whether Tua can take it to the next level the bills are the favors to run this division next year. I feel that the changes I suggested above can easily make this team better and in a better position to handle a team like KC. 

If the oline stays intact and Milano walks this is what I believe are the top 5 needs in no particular order as they all need the same level of upgrade

1. RB
2. DE
3. TE
4. OLB
5. IDT

The Bills are rolling over 3.7 mil and the expected cap is around 180-185 putting us at 7-12 mil under cap. With the cuts I mention above that will put us around 30-40 mil in cap space. Some circles expect it to be around 195 which is even better. It can give the bills flexibility to not only retain feliciano and williams but be able to add a couple of key players such as Hunter Henry and a young pass rusher. 

[Trentwannabe]

2021 Free Agents:

DE Trent Murphy
TE Tyler Kroft
LB Matt Milano
CB Josh Norman
OL Ty Nsekhe
OL Jon Feliciano
OL Brian Winters
WR Andre Roberts
OL Daryl Williams
QB Matt Barkley
RB Taiwan Jones
RB TJ Yeldon
S Dean Marlowe
WR Isaiah McKenzie
CB Levi Wallace RFA
LB Andre Smith RFA
Corey Bojorquez RFA
Ike Boettger RFA

The RFA's seem obvious to all be brought back. After that....I'd like to see McKenzie, Roberts and Barkley back. I think Daryl Williams gets paid elsewhere. Bills have a huge decision to make with Milano. I see the Bills cutting ties with Mario Addison, Quinton Jefferson and John Brown, freeing up over $20mil in cap space. 

 

[Trentwannabe]

@soflbillsfanWe're on the same page with our cuts. I wouldn't be surprised if they try to restructure Hughes though. Hard to dump a leader like him. I also would prefer to keep Butler. He cam on as the year went and with Star back he could go back to his natural 3T position. Zimmer is just too small to hold up in the NFL. 

I unfortunately don't see any young stud DE's hitting the market. None that will remind us of Mario Williams anyway. Also looks like the Lions have secured Duce Staley to their coaching staff.

I'm torn on the OL. I would rather spend some money on a guy like Thuney and draft a Tackle in round 1 or 2 (apparently its a good class?) then bring back Feliciano and Williams. It's a big year for Ford. He needs to cement himself at Guard or he'll be a full blown bust. 

If the Bills can upgrade the trenches on both sides and add another playmaker to the offense, either WR/TE/RB then they should be in line for another division title. 

[Trentwannabe]

 

[Trentwannabe]

 

[soflbillsfan]

22 hours ago, Trentwannabe said:

@soflbillsfanWe're on the same page with our cuts. I wouldn't be surprised if they try to restructure Hughes though. Hard to dump a leader like him. I also would prefer to keep Butler. He cam on as the year went and with Star back he could go back to his natural 3T position. Zimmer is just too small to hold up in the NFL. 

I unfortunately don't see any young stud DE's hitting the market. None that will remind us of Mario Williams anyway. Also looks like the Lions have secured Duce Staley to their coaching staff.

I'm torn on the OL. I would rather spend some money on a guy like Thuney and draft a Tackle in round 1 or 2 (apparently its a good class?) then bring back Feliciano and Williams. It's a big year for Ford. He needs to cement himself at Guard or he'll be a full blown bust. 

If the Bills can upgrade the trenches on both sides and add another playmaker to the offense, either WR/TE/RB then they should be in line for another division title. 

I am looking at the continuation on offense, if you continue to move around the oline like they have done for the 4th consecutive season for Allen their may be problems. By expecting a rookie to come in and start at RT at pick 30 is pretty high standards, keep in mind we did that with Cody Ford and it has failed miserably thus far. Thuney is going to get paid LG money which is likely around the 10 mil range which is some thing I am not sure we can afford considering we paid Dawkins and Morse top money already. I think once the cap level is announced will decide where we stand. This year they ranked 4th in pass protection so they are doing something right with the offense they have and that was with out their LG, the expectations of Ford being the starter next year. The interior had what a half game where Ford, Morse, and Feliciano were in all at the same time?

As for Butler the cost of keeping him is 8 mil this to me is another Murphy dilemma where he is just not worth the cost with his lack of production. I do agree on hughes restructuring is more likely to happen and ideally they can bring in a young talent. I know Yannick was seeking 20+ mil clearly that is no longer in the books for him and he is still young if they can offer him a respectable deal I could see him being the pass rusher we have been craving. They have to decide on paying him or Judon. Also Shaq Barrett who I know plays more of a 3-4 pass rusher has put together another decent year. Bills need to get a guy who you can count on getting to the passer without requiring sending more then 4 men. Paying guys like Addison to get you only 5 sacks this year and 4.5 from hughes just isnt going to cut it with the threats. We blitzed 60% of the time against the colts and came away with 0 sacks. We blitzed KC 40% of the time and had no pressure on a hobbled Mahomes so the line just isnt strong and even if butler should be at the 3t the price of him splitting reps with Oliver just isnt worth it imo. We need to start cutting the fat and unfortunately the experiment of paying cheaper contracts for more depth isn't working. Jefferson, Butler, Addison, Hughes, and Murphy were all paid in the 7-10 mil range this year (average of that is around 40 mil for those 5 men) and the dline was our down fall on defense. If they can just come in and find a guy who can be the work horse as the main pass rusher at RDE, restructure Hughes to back him up, and then have Epenesa and Johnson play LDE with Star, and Oliver as the IDTs and Zimmer (while small, his price tag and his ability to be depth is ideal on keeping him to atleast compete in camp) phillips backing them up along with a rookie this group can likely manage to produce the same as they did this year if not more for half the cost of what they are expecting to pay them. As much as Klein (2.4 mil savings) came in strong this year, as well as Lee Smith (2.2 mil savings) those 2 may also be cap casualties in order to go younger to keep our core players from moving on. I also hate to say it but John Brown may be a casualty as well paying him 9.5 mil this year may be something Beane has to decide on as emergence of Davis can save the team about 8 mil. 

My response to bold above Carl Lawson, Yannick, Judon, Shaq, Bud Dupree...While some may resign I think a couple will hit the market. Paying both yan and judon is unlikely, Pitt paying both dupree and watt is also unlikely. Ideally if Dupree gets out of there I would hope the bills go for him as he is my top prospect on the defensive side for FA. 

Free agents for the Bills:

Bojo, Mckenzie or Roberts, Levi Wallace (RFA), Ike (RFA, Smith (RFA), Barkley, should be retained IMO. Mckenzie over Roberts, as much as I love what Roberts does with the ball on ST, I see mckenzie making his way as the return guy like he did against Miami this year, not to mention his gadget ability on offense.

Guys who I do not expect back are Winters, Kroft,  Murphy, Norman, and Nsekhe

Guys who may come back for the right price, Daryl Williams, Feliciano,  Jones (for ST purposes), Marlowe, and Milano. Milano on a 1 year prove it deal to show that he can stay healthy.

Guys we get back from COVID Star and Ej Gaines.

COVID will likely be an issue for next year as well, I believe that the NFL will get all the players the vaccine but that is still not a sure fire so they should continue the process of having the 3 qbs where Fromm continues to play that 3rd string/COVID protection and then in 2022 move on from Barkley and have Fromm stick as the back up. 

Edited January 26, 2021 by soflbillsfan

[Trentwannabe]

26 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

am looking at the continuation on offense, if you continue to move around the oline like they have done for the 4th consecutive season for Allen their may be problems. By expecting a rookie to come in and start at RT at pick 30 is pretty high standards, keep in mind we did that with Cody Ford and it has failed miserably thus far. Thuney is going to get paid LG money which is likely around the 10 mil range which is some thing I am not sure we can afford considering we paid Dawkins and Morse top money already. I think once the cap level is announced will decide where we stand. This year they ranked 4th in pass protection so they are doing something right with the offense they have and that was with out their LG, the expectations of Ford being the starter next year. The interior had what a half game where Ford, Morse, and Feliciano were in all at the same time?

Similar to Murphy this year and the Butler situation now, is Brown really worth the $9mil he’s due? I’d argue he’ll be the 4th option in the offense next year behind Diggs, Beasley and a running game. Davis out played him in the final month and the Bills will have Hodgins back next year who a lot of media members said had a better camp than Davis. 
 

Id love to restructure Brown and keep him around but I think it’s a huge mistake to pay him that much. As for the the OL, shuffling it isn’t ideal but keeping status quo when it’s below average isn’t either. Ford was always a Guard, draft experts knew it, teams and fans knew it too. But the Bills had limited options after Waddle got hurt. That shouldn’t deter the Bills from grabbing an OL early in the draft to play RT if Williams prices himself out. 

[soflbillsfan]

48 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

Similar to Murphy this year and the Butler situation now, is Brown really worth the $9mil he’s due? I’d argue he’ll be the 4th option in the offense next year behind Diggs, Beasley and a running game. Davis out played him in the final month and the Bills will have Hodgins back next year who a lot of media members said had a better camp than Davis. 
 

Id love to restructure Brown and keep him around but I think it’s a huge mistake to pay him that much. As for the the OL, shuffling it isn’t ideal but keeping status quo when it’s below average isn’t either. Ford was always a Guard, draft experts knew it, teams and fans knew it too. But the Bills had limited options after Waddle got hurt. That shouldn’t deter the Bills from grabbing an OL early in the draft to play RT if Williams prices himself out. 

Yea as I mentioned before 9.5 is definitely a cap casualty for Brown especially with Davis playing the way he is. If they can get Stills on a favorable deal he is younger then brown and offers the bills that sideline speed that Brown had in 2019. Diggs, Beasley, Davis, Mckenzie, Hodges, and Stills would be the 6 Wr I roll with this season, if Brown doesn't restructure. Maybe it might be a mistake but i liked what I saw with Mckenzie returning punts against miami and think he can be our return man too. Roberts is great but he is useless on offense while mckenzie has made a small niche in the offense on gadget plays and backing up beasley in the slot. Bills have room to clear up space. As for oline they were 4th in pass protection, if Allen is your guy dont you want to continue that protection for him? I know they struggled against the run but is it the olines fault or is it Singletary's fault? Yeldon had some nice runs where he was able to hit the outside, Singletary while agile and elusive off of the 1st open field tackle his inability to find the hole or the speed to get outside is preventing him from being the workhorse back on this team. Moss is also a complimentary piece. I was frustrated when they drafted in the 2nd rd epenesa when Dobbins was still there and still wish they made that pick but it is what it is now and I think they need to correct the wrong and look at a guy like Etienne or Najee with their 1st pick. Just more complete back that the bills need in order to not feel that they are only 1 dimensional with allen throwing the ball so much. RPO was working when we were able to move the ball on the ground but once teams figured they were unable to run it they were coming at Allen, specifically KC. So a solid RB is something we need to go after and not settle for mid rd rbs to be your starters.

 

[Trentwannabe]

 

[soflbillsfan]

17 hours ago, Trentwannabe said:

 

I wonder what  Freeman and Stills are going to do. Ideally having them at camp would be nice. I know a ton of fans like Duke Williams but I do not see the point of consistently signing him and having him be in a camp he is going to be who he has been hes at the age of whether he is got it or not. I do hope they go with a younger guy if it came down to him and the rookie.

[soflbillsfan]

Beane had his end of year presser. To me it sounds like they will let Matt Milano hit FA and see what his worth is. Also said that the cap isn't where they want it to be as they weren't planning on it being at 175 this year (this can obviously change but it wont be more then 195, last year was around 198). So I expected players like John Brown who is a cap hit of 9.5 mil to be let go clearing 8 mil as he will now move forward as the 4th wr on this team if he were to stay, so unfortunately I assume he is on top of the list. He also spoke about the run game and he likes the RB group that they have, which is kind of surprising but can also be smoke to not show his cards, as he has made it clear to home grow his team and keep the pieces they have built up through the draft. He has stated that teams did not take the TE group as a threat this year and didn't need to game plan around them, also mentioned they would like a guy similar to the one on KC, so TE is definitely on the list, Hunter Henry would be my top choice if he is available in FA. Not sure if this would be to much for the Bills to afford as I would assume he gets a similar deal to Hooper which he got 4 years 42 mil, (yr breakdown was 4 mil in yr 1, 8 mil in yr 2, 13, and 13 in years 3/4, with 18.5 mil guaranteed). He also stated that the dline was not where they wanted to be and need to get faster and bigger on the line. I think this is where they move on from a few older guys and restructure some. Butler is likely to be gone while Ed Oliver and Star start in the Interior while Epenesa is going to be the guy on the Left, not sure if hughes and/or addison stay but if they do I can see a restructure happening. He also sees Ford being a versatile guy and playing injured in both of his 2 years isn't ideal but expects him to be a starter on the front 5 next year, did not specify which position though (LG, RG, RT). 

I dont think they spend big money in FA but if they do the top 2 guys ideally want is Henry and Dupree if available. 

[Trentwannabe]

I always love when Beane speaks because he says a lot but doesn’t reveal much. At the same time he is pretty straight forward. 
 

I think he is happy with Moss and probably to a lesser extent, Singletary,  but wouldn’t shy away from an immediate upgrade. He or McDermott mentioned how often they were getting hit in the backfield. I’m still really hoping the Bills get a road grader early in the draft for the right side of their line. 
 

TE seems to be a consensus top need for this offense. Knox certainly came on late but yeah, he isn’t going to keep DC awake like others would. For the right price I’d love Henry, Smith or even Everett. But I can see them going to the draft. 
 

I can’t remember if it was McDermott or Beane but they spoke about how the lack of an off-season and a new coach coming in slowed the DL down. But they are all started playing better as the year went on. Sounds like Beane would have tried to get Jordan Phillips back had he known Star was sitting out. Wonder if we’ll go after the 1T from the Giants or look to the draft here. A stud DE would be great but with our cap and picking 30 it’ll be very difficult.

[Trentwannabe]

 

[soflbillsfan]

On 1/29/2021 at 5:12 PM, Trentwannabe said:

 

I really dont get this move unless he is injured. having a camp body who knows the system at a super cheap price with CB needing to be a need this year makes no sense to me. 

Josh Norman is a FA, Taron Johnson going on his last year, Levi Wallace RFA, Dane Jackson, and Tre white....I figured with Josh Norman being a FA they can let him go as he wasn't anything special and is a liability at times while retaining Gaines on the 1 year 825k deal would be smart. 

Some of these head scratches with Beane some time I just dont get and this is one of them.