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How will the salary cap affect the 2021 offseason?


Tk3

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2020 cap was ~$200M, 2021 cap was expected to be in the ballpark of ~$210M, and the 2021 cap will ACTUALLY be more like ~$180M

So what does that mean? At least 10 teams are in bad, bad spots, and tons of teams who WOULD have cap room, won't, and free agents have fewer teams bidding on them

How are teams going to get out from that? I think TONS of vet players with 1 or 2 years remaining are getting cut. Flat out. If you're a guy and your cap hit is $9M, and cutting you would save $7M, you are getting cut if you are not majorly performing.

I think a lot of 3 year - $30M type of guys (Mario Addison, Blake Martinez, Jordan Phillips, Jamie Collins, Shaq Lawson types) are going to get 1 year - <$5M contracts and try their luck in 2022 when there is more money to go around. Am I thinking about this correctly? I expect an insane amount of cap casualties, and a huge amount of vets signing super cheap

As a result, this is a REAL opportunity for a rebuilding team to get good fast, if they have a ton of cap room and can sign some really quality players at bargains. If a team like Jacksonville is shrewd they can put together a really nice roster in just one year

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More cap casualties than ever, a lot of backloaded deals, and a lot of free agents signing shorter deals than they normally would for less than normal in hopes of seeing a more normal payday come back in a year or two. Like half the league is going to have to make cuts or extensions just to get a 53 man roster under the cap. I think you wind up only seeing a few free agents rake in big money, the truly top tier guys, and then a lot of guys have to settle for less temporarily, because they just won't have much of a market. There's been chatter in the KC forum about how Watkins moving on is a foregone conclusion, because he's just not worth $10M to us. But I don't think he's going to be worth that to anyone, this year. He's the kind of guy who is going to have to accept way less than he normally would've on the market, because he's a lower tier guy who normally gets overpaid just because free agency. But that won't happen this year. At least not as much. So generally, yeah, I agree with you, OP.

The other thing we're going to see a lot of, and this could get scary for some teams if not managed right, is the kind of deferring of cap hits we've seen the Saints and Eagles do for years. Auto-void years past the end of contracts to spread out signing bonus hits, restructures converting base salary to new signing bonuses so the money originally paid in 2021 winds up being paid over the term of the contract. I think you'll especially see this from teams that think they have a superbowl window to commit to next year, but if taken too far it could really screw over some teams in 2 to 3 years. But I think it's something to watch with teams like the Chiefs, Bucs, Packers, Rams, Bills, Seahawks, etc. Teams that think a superbowl win next year is very possible, and that they should do whatever it takes to open that 2021 window as much as possible. The Bucs especially will be one to watch. They're projected about $25M under the cap, but that's with only 31 players under contract next year. They have a ton of vital players primed to hit free agency, all towards the back half of their careers (Barrett, Suh, David, Gronk, Brown, Fournette, etc.) But assuming they just have another year of Brady, they may choose to go all in bringing those guys back. And they can do it, but it would likely require restructures from guys like Evans, Marpet, Brate, etc. Can easily shuffle around another like $20M from those guys 2021 cap hits into 2022 and 2023, if they want to go all-in again with Brady.

I think it will be very clear what teams think they can win the superbowl next year, based on how much they do to push more cap flexibility into 2021, at the cost of 2022 and on.

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The cap was already expected to go up by a lot in 2022 with the TV deals up for renegotiation, before you even get into it being the likely first post-COVID year financially (inshallah). If the league and NFLPA are smart they'll try to find a smoothing measure here that borrows against that coming increase to keep the cap from going down too much. Cratering salary cap forces teams into decisions they were not planning for and kneecaps a lot of contending teams' plans (which management won't like) while destroying the market for vets who can only hope for short-term deals (which the union won't like). Do I trust them to find a common sense solution here? No. But it sure would be nice. 

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6 minutes ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

The cap was already expected to go up by a lot in 2022 with the TV deals up for renegotiation, before you even get into it being the likely first post-COVID year financially (inshallah). If the league and NFLPA are smart they'll try to find a smoothing measure here that borrows against that coming increase to keep the cap from going down too much. Cratering salary cap forces teams into decisions they were not planning for and kneecaps a lot of contending teams' plans (which management won't like) while destroying the market for vets who can only hope for short-term deals (which the union won't like). Do I trust them to find a common sense solution here? No. But it sure would be nice. 

Common sense solution would be flat cap from 2020 to 2021.

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24 minutes ago, August4th said:

dreading what it will do to the steelers. Hard to believe their are teams in worse situations cap wise

 

17 minutes ago, scar988 said:

Have you seen the Saints?

 

Definitely the Saints, by a significant margin

But Steelers are the clear cut runner up

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21 minutes ago, scar988 said:

Common sense solution would be flat cap from 2020 to 2021.

I can't see the NFLPA agreeing to a cut in the salary cap that would have 40% of the teams over the cap and having to cut players to get under. The cap staying flat for a year or two is a much more realistic idea IMO. Even then a handful will have to make some moves but that's the case every year. 

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26 minutes ago, NVRamsFan said:

I can't see the NFLPA agreeing to a cut in the salary cap that would have 40% of the teams over the cap and having to cut players to get under. The cap staying flat for a year or two is a much more realistic idea IMO. Even then a handful will have to make some moves but that's the case every year. 

Or even if they could negotiate stepped increases before a boom in 2023. That would work too. They should see caps around 220M in 2022 and 240 in 2023, so why not step it from 195 now to 200 in 2021, to 213 in 2022 and 226 in 2023 and then normal caps from then on.

 

EDIT: My #s awere off.

Edited by scar988
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