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Hypothetical Trade with Dolphins


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So the Dolphins are definitely in play for Watson, and I think their biggest rival is their in division rival Jets.  Both have high firsts, plus two firsts this year.  The problem for the Dolphins is that the Jets have #2 to their #3, and some reports I've read are that the Texans aren't interested in Tua.  

So how could the Dolphins outbid the Jets then?  My guess is they need to flip Tua to another team for a first round pick, so they can offer Three first round picks in this draft vs. the Jets two.  

In steps the WFT.  Now Tua is coming off a pretty disappointing rookie campaign, but was coming off an injury and was once considered an elite QB prospect.  The most recent trade we have of a similar high QB being dumped so early is the Josh Rosen trade, in which he was traded for the 62nd pick in the draft, plus Arizona included a future 5th round pick.  That is a pretty poor return, and I think Tua would be worth more than that, but I don't think he's worth the 19th pick straight up either.  

So obviously the 19th pick is worth a lot more than the 62nd pick Rosen was traded for, and like I said Arizona even sent a future 5th back in that deal.  So in order to acquire 19 from us I think the Dolphins would have to send another pick back to us as well (albeit a much better one than a future 5th).  

I think it would have to be a 2nd round pick in this current draft, of which Miami has two (36 & 50).  From Miami's perspective, I think it would be a hard pill for them to swallow to trade 36 and Tua for 19.  They'd be dumping the #5 overall pick from the previous year just to move up 17 spots in this draft, plus they might even have to include the 36th pick to get Watson in the first place.  So that lands me on #50.  

Here's my proposed trade.

 

Miami Receives:

#19 overall pick

 

WFT Receives:

QB Tua Tagovailoa

#50 overall pick

 

Thoughts?

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I’d do that in a heart beat. Before Burrow emerged & then Tua’s hip injury he was projected to be the #1 pick with no questions about it. I’m also not one to hold this past season against any rookie QB, it was the hardest rookie year for any rookie in NFL history which makes it that much tougher on the toughest position to play in the NFL. 

Tua wasn’t awful either, his production doesn’t look bad minus a few games & most rookie QBs have issues with some turnovers.

You also have to consider that the WRs for the Dolphins are kinda poo. Yeah, Devante Parker but I don’t really consider him a #1, he’s a #2.

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21 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I’d do that in a heart beat. Before Burrow emerged & then Tua’s hip injury he was projected to be the #1 pick with no questions about it. I’m also not one to hold this past season against any rookie QB, it was the hardest rookie year for any rookie in NFL history which makes it that much tougher on the toughest position to play in the NFL. 

Tua wasn’t awful either, his production doesn’t look bad minus a few games & most rookie QBs have issues with some turnovers.

You also have to consider that the WRs for the Dolphins are kinda poo. Yeah, Devante Parker but I don’t really consider him a #1, he’s a #2.

 Sure, for what we have at QB. I think Tua fits well in ST’s quick pass offense and with his accuracy. Can also throw the deep ball to move down field. 

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I'm not a huge fan of Tua, but I would be more on board with the OP trade scenario.

Than trading multiple firsts & players for Watson. That for sure.

I'm not even sure I want to trade our 1st for Stafford.

To land Tua, have two 2nds & 3rds going into the draft?

Have Tua & Heinicke? Sign me up.

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Hard to judge Tua as a qb, but I am not a fan of Tua as he has already showed signs of the big red flag on him - injuries.   However sure I would do that trade.  Essentially a 1st round pick for a 1st round qb and a 2nd.  No chance in hell the dolphins do that trade unless they are desperate.

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If we give up a first, I'd rather go all in for Watson, but I also wouldn't hate this deal either.  I know I'm the one who continually beats the drum for asset management here, but an elite QB at Watson's age is never available, and I think you have to consider what it will take.  

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I would do this in a heartbeat. I’m not totally sold on Tua, but this deal values him as something like the 38th pick — that’s where  guys like Drew Lock and Kyle Trask go, and I’m sure as hell more sold on Tua than on any of them.

He’s a nice fit for the offense, with a little mobility to go with extremely accurate passing. He doesn’t have the big cannon arm, but you don’t necessarily need that in this offense. His ball placement is terrific, which would give him some Alex Smith feel in the sense that he gets the ball to guys in stride. He’s always been a bit of a “lock on and find a way to get it to your primary receiver” type guy — probably a side effect of guys always being open and extremely precise ball placement to still complete it when they’re not — but he’s just a kid. I think there’s plenty of room to grow, and he’s clearly a gamer. 

As best I can tell, we’d have him on what amounts to something like a 3/$11M deal with the 5th-year option. Which is obviously a slam dunk contract. You could sign an elite WR with the difference between his contract and Stafford’s, and you could damn near sign one of those and an elite FS with the difference between his contract and Watson’s. 

All of that said, I’d be shocked if that’s the best they can get for Tua. I suspect someone in our pick range (if not us, perhaps CHI or IND or PIT) would bite on the 1st rounder straight up if they put him up for bids. 

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I'd do this doubt the Dolphins would.

Not a big fan of Tua's though as I don't like his Arm that much,but with that being said if he learns the insides of the game he could be a Drew Brees lite and I'd rather have him the Jones or Trask who will be only QBs that might be there at 19.

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No thanks.  He made his reputation on 1 game, though it was the National Championship.  I never thought he was a great talent, and they had to replace him with Fitzgerald in 2 games.  I say we stay put at #19 and draft the best player available at a position of need.  We made the playoffs this year but we still have positions that are in need of upgrading, and I don't think Tua is that player.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Trying not to thread necromance up too many threads after being away for so long, but this one is interesting.

I'm on board with this deal ... with one hesitation. To make this work, Miami and Houston would need to agree to trade Watson before the draft. That in turn means Houston would need to agree to the trade with Washington before the draft.

By doing all of that, Washington robs itself of significant draft flexibility. However, given what is likely available at 19 and what they need, I still think I make this deal.

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