Trentwannabe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: 1 hour ago, Trentwannabe said: These are the myths, right? Because its been pretty thoroughly debunked by most analyst. 11 minutes ago, MikeT14 said: Meh, i can specifically remember the Kirk Cousins led WFT - generally Top 10 in PA and bottom half of the league in rushing. Specifically 9th and 27th in rushing in 2017 it appears. I am saying it’s a myth. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said: I am saying it’s a myth. Okay I follow. Looking through other posts some are going one direction and some the other. I'm with you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, DannyB said: That certain running backs face a massively inordinate percentage of 8+ man boxes beyond what their formation would dictate the defense should do. Let's called it the Adrian Peterson Myth. The sad thing is, the numbers are available and people still perpetuate this myth. The only outlier from a starter was Derrick Henry. People always say that about Zeke but its simply not true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 hours ago, biggie. said: Wrong again!!!! Despite playing the most amount of games, Brady has a very low average on a per game basis. Josh Allen leads that category. The claim that Tom Brady gets all of the roughing the passer calls has been DEBUNKED. Wouldn’t a per pass attempt basis make more sense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scar988 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 21 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: The sad thing is, the numbers are available and people still perpetuate this myth. The only outlier from a starter was Derrick Henry. People always say that about Zeke but its simply not true. It also relates a lot to the scheme going against it too. The Seattle based cover 3 shells tend to start out with 8 in the box on over 50% of the plays regardless in their base defense. It's just how they're aligned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The page has a bunch of columns to sort by. Brady is also far down the list on a per game (33rd), per 100 attempts (38th) and per sack (26th) basis. If your response to that is, but but but, then you might want to reconsider the reliability of your "eyetest." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 (edited) My myth is that aDOT and CPOE are significant indicators of QB/offensive success. There's a positive correlation there but it's not nearly as strong as others. Edited January 28, 2021 by childofpudding Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackstar12 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Dominating TOP doesn’t guarantee you wins. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malik Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 No team has ever built a consistent playoff team by building all pieces and THEN attempting to get a QB. You're much more likely to waste a super bowl window by waiting on getting a good QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASmithFan1010 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 22 minutes ago, Malik said: No team has ever built a consistent playoff team by building all pieces and THEN attempting to get a QB. You're much more likely to waste a super bowl window by waiting on getting a good QB. Isn't that essentially what the Titans did? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malik Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, ASmithFan1010 said: Isn't that essentially what the Titans did? Without looking up the roster changes year-to-year their biggest offensive philosophy change was making Derrick Henry the primary runningback. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, ASmithFan1010 said: 36 minutes ago, Malik said: No team has ever built a consistent playoff team by building all pieces and THEN attempting to get a QB. You're much more likely to waste a super bowl window by waiting on getting a good QB. Isn't that essentially what the Titans did? The Chiefs kinda as well. They had most the pieces when they switched to Mahomes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scar988 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 hours ago, childofpudding said: My myth is that aDOT and CPOE are significant indicators of QB/offensive success. There's a positive correlation there but it's not nearly as strong as others. aDOT has no indication of success or failure. Just says how risky a QB is. CPOE is a slight indicator of success. But more a correlative one than a causational one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 (edited) 9 minutes ago, scar988 said: aDOT has no indication of success or failure. Just says how risky a QB is. CPOE is a slight indicator of success. But more a correlative one than a causational one. Correct on aDOT. On CPOE, it is only marginally more correlative to offensive success (yards/drive, point/drive) as comp% on its own. There has been a bit of a trend in some circles of NFL analytics to pair CPOE with EPA/play as a composite QB metric. But the correlation of that composite metric to the offensive success metrics I mentioned earlier is actually lower than the correlation of EPA/play on its own. What I've found is that the QB metric with the highest correlation to offensive success is EPA/play, ANY/A, or traditional passer rating with NY/C substituted for Y/A in the formula so that sack yards are accounted for and comp% isn't counted twice. Edited January 28, 2021 by childofpudding Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, childofpudding said: 18 minutes ago, scar988 said: aDOT has no indication of success or failure. Just says how risky a QB is. CPOE is a slight indicator of success. But more a correlative one than a causational one. Correct on aDOT. On CPOE, it is only marginally more correlative to offensive success (yards/drive, point/drive) as comp% on its own. There has been a bit of a trend in some circles of NFL analytics to pair CPOE with EPA/play as a composite QB metric. But the correlation of that composite metric to the offensive success metrics I mentioned earlier is actually lower than the correlation of EPA/play on its own. What I've found is that the QB metric with the highest correlation to offensive success is EPA/play, ANY/A, or traditional passer rating with NY/C substituted for Y/A in the formula so that sack yards are accounted for and comp% isn't counted twice. The last study I saw on this was the stats most correlated to winning are ANY/A and QBR. But what I was shocked to find is that the most predictive from season to season is PFF QB Grade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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