Awsi Dooger Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 hours ago, Tk3 said: Interesting... do you have actual numbers you can point us to? I'm curious how big the affect actually is Home teams have won at slightly above 57% clip over NFL history. This was the first season ever in which home teams finished below .500...127-128. That should tell you that denying home advantage is ridiculous. Amidst a sample of a full century there would have been numerous seasons with road advantage if the home edge was negligible. It is worth slightly above 2.5 points per game. I studied that specifically during the 24 years I bet sports in Las Vegas. There is always fluctuation from year to year. 2019 had lower than normal home advantage at 52% wins but that followed a 2018 season in which NFL home teams dominated at above 60% winning clip. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18 hours ago, scar988 said: Bruh. Have you never seen Falcons and Saints fans interact? Bruh...it's nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 17 hours ago, OkeyDoke21 said: I don't really understand this. Wouldn't anything over 50% indicate an advantage? No, it's within a margin of error. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 (edited) 16 hours ago, WideRight said: Amongst fans, the rivalry thing still exists. I hate the Eagles and Cowboys and actively root against them. Soccer has always had more insanity even at the height of NFL rivalries. Doesn't mean they don't exist. I don't think they're really rivalries though. Some fans think like you, but I've seen an equal number of so called 'rival' fans rooting for their rival team against us in the superbowl, for example. Most Eagle fans that I know were rooting for NYG against us in the 07 Superbowl IMO the fatigue effect is more powerful than rivalries in the NFL. Fans get tired of successful teams more than they hate teams in their divisions, I'd say Edited January 29, 2021 by Hunter2_1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WideRight Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said: I don't think they're really rivalries though. Some fans think like you, but I've seen an equal number of so called 'rival' fans rooting for their rival team against us in the superbowl, for example. Most Eagle fans that I know were rooting for NYG against us in the 07 Superbowl IMO the fatigue effect is more powerful than rivalries in the NFL. Fans get tired of successful teams more than they hate teams in their divisions, I'd say I definitely agree with you on that last point. People very quickly tire of a team that wins. I personally never do that. Either I like the team/coach/scheme/etc or not. I'm sure we're pretty close to people hating the Chiefs for no reason. Same that happened with the Pats, Yankees, Bulls, Warriors, Cowboys, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 22 minutes ago, WideRight said: I'm sure we're pretty close to people hating the Chiefs for no reason. Well, on here at least, there are a couple posters that have been annoying AF lately. Super braggadocious. 22 minutes ago, WideRight said: Same that happened with the Pats, Yankees, Bulls, Warriors, Cowboys, etc I always wondered how the Spurs, generally speaking, escaped this treatment. I think Lakers fans hated us, but as a rule of thumb there wasnt that vitriol you normally see with teams that go on 20 year runs of awesomeness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WideRight Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Matts4313 said: Well, on here at least, there are a couple posters that have been annoying AF lately. Super braggadocious. I always wondered how the Spurs, generally speaking, escaped this treatment. I think Lakers fans hated us, but as a rule of thumb there wasnt that vitriol you normally see with teams that go on 20 year runs of awesomeness. That has to do with the Lakers. They were already hated, so people just naturally didn't mind their less flashy rival that was keeping them from winning some titles. As a Knicks fan, I sided with SA but didn't mind either. After '99, neither were stopping us from winning any titles lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7DnBrnc53 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, WideRight said: That has to do with the Lakers. They were already hated, so people just naturally didn't mind their less flashy rival that was keeping them from winning some titles. As a Knicks fan, I sided with SA but didn't mind either. After '99, neither were stopping us from winning any titles lol. I hated the Lakers in the 80's (and Celtics), but I respected them (watch the 30 for 30 about their rivalry if you haven't. It is good). I not only hated the 00-02 Lakers, I didn't have any respect for them. They needed referee assistance to win. Also, SA went down a notch from 2000-02. Duncan got hurt in 00 (and almost left), the 01 Spurs were banged-up heading into the WCF, and the 02 Spurs weren't that great. That was also around the time that NE started winning titles with less than stellar talent. Neither team should have won multiple championships, but they were buoyed by the NFL and NBA's officials, so they did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OkeyDoke21 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said: No, it's within a margin of error. So your issue is just with that your two myths are exaggerated beyond what they are in reality, not that they don't actually exist? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 13 hours ago, Awsi Dooger said: Home teams have won at slightly above 57% clip over NFL history. This was the first season ever in which home teams finished below .500...127-128. That should tell you that denying home advantage is ridiculous. Amidst a sample of a full century there would have been numerous seasons with road advantage if the home edge was negligible. It is worth slightly above 2.5 points per game. I studied that specifically during the 24 years I bet sports in Las Vegas. There is always fluctuation from year to year. 2019 had lower than normal home advantage at 52% wins but that followed a 2018 season in which NFL home teams dominated at above 60% winning clip. Just did a quick look. Over the last 10 years, in the regular season the home team has won 56% of games. In the playoffs, the home team has won 65% of games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awsi Dooger Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I worked for a sports stats company in the early 2000s in Las Vegas, focused on sports betting. At that point the two worst returns in offensive game planning were third down screen passes, and red zone fades. But third down screen passes were in a league of their own. The entire office would literally burst into laughter when they were attempted on a key play. The success rate was next to nothing. That was nearly 20 years ago but I doubt much has changed. In the college game nothing infuriates Nick Saban more than when an opponent successfully pulls off a third down screen against his defense. He knows they are wimp plays. I'll never forget when Texas converted two of them during the 4th quarter when Alabama faced Texas in the championship game about 10 years ago. Saban looked like he wanted to strangle somebody. Throw it beyond the sticks on third down. Good teams are not going to let you catch and run for a cheapie. Down near the goal line try to actually design a play instead of a garbage fade pass. I'm convinced head coaches would refrain from fade passes if they ever bothered to check the percentages, or received the deserved ridicule. Somehow everybody accepts those plays and you've even got conventional wisdom commentators begging for them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said: I don't think they're really rivalries though. Some fans think like you, but I've seen an equal number of so called 'rival' fans rooting for their rival team against us in the superbowl, for example. Most Eagle fans that I know were rooting for NYG against us in the 07 Superbowl IMO the fatigue effect is more powerful than rivalries in the NFL. Fans get tired of successful teams more than they hate teams in their divisions, I'd say Rooting for the Giants disqualifies you as an Eagles fan IMO (unless they are playing WFT or Dallas) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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