soflbillsfan Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Gruden has the security of a 10-year deal with 6 years left. If he doesn’t think Carr is getting him to the final 4 there won’t be a better time to sell. I agree Indy is a solid fit for Carr. His strengths fit that O best. Yes to sell but what are you buying? Since Gruden has come along the Raiders have had the most 1st rd picks of any other organization, what has he done to put them in a position to move on from Carr? Whether you have security or not I dont see the point in moving a player with a positive asset such as carr when other parts are barely functioning. I dont see Carr being the issue and his stock may be high but swapping out Qbs isnt going to solve the issue at hand which is oline protection and defense. If they moved on from Carr what Qb is going to be available to get at 17 Mac Jones or Trask those are the type of guys you will get without having to trade up to land a Wilson or Lance while figuring out their defensive issues. If they had a solid defense and Carr was holding them back then yes I would say sell him now but its not 25th in yards allowed and 30th in points given up to me that is a defense issue that needs to be resolved to allow this team to compete. If Carr is moved then you are basically looking to rebuild again and throw in the towel for 2021 season. Edited February 4, 2021 by soflbillsfan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 (edited) 12 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said: Yes to sell but what are you buying? If Carr is moved then you are basically looking to rebuild again and throw in the towel for 2021 season. The only way you sell Carr is because you're looking at 2021 as a rebuild year. I mean yes, Mariota is just a stopgap, absolutely. Realistically with LV's D in the shape they're in, it's going to take more than 1 year to fix (which is a huge problem and for which Gruden the co-GM should absolutely get more heat on, but he hasn't). But that's also where's Gruden's unique level of security comes in. Remember Gruden is one of the few HC/GM (Mayock is the de facto GM, but remember Gruden actually signs off on all the decisions too) with enough security to present that to Davis...and being that they are in year 2 in a new city, there's likely more willingness to buy that take. I get from the wide angle lens, Gruden should be on the hot seat - but with 6 years left on his contract, and a move to a new city, I don't think we should dismiss that Gruden may be looking to this as the year to cash out Carr, and start again. I'm skeptical that he's worth a 1st round pick - but if there was a market in which he would be, it's now. Very few HC/GM's have the security to switch gears and go rebuild, and think they'll be safe doing so, but in this case, it may fit with LV & Gruden. I don't think he'll be on the hot seat until 2022 at the earliest, given the contract, and Davis' loyalty (who knows if the cash flow issues are real, but Davis' loyalty to Gruden is remarkable, for the mediocre results we've seen), It's also why LV hanging on to Carr makes sense if they're not blown away. It's more the willingness to explore the market, since Carr's value is likely never going to be higher than it is now (with only 2 years left in a below-market deal). Edited February 4, 2021 by Broncofan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul-mac Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 If you look at Brady, Rodgers, Peyton Manning back in the day, probably Mahomes going forward. Those elite level QBs pretty much guarantee you playoffs every year Peyton was in the playoffs 15/17 years as a starter, Mahomes 3/3, Brady an incredible 19/20 and Rodgers 10/13. Brees was a step below these guys at 60% rate of making the playoffs in New Orleans. Russell Wilson is 8/9 although I'm not sure he's really led many crappy teams in that time. Those guys shared the ability to put a crappy team on their back and still win 10+ games every year. Given the level of both draft pick compensation and salary that it's going to take to land Deshaun Watson, he's going to NEED to be as good as these guys to even give your team a chance to make the playoffs. I honestly don't think he's worth what these teams are looking at giving up for him. I view him as a second tier QB in the same conversation as guys like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott etc. I don't think Watson is a truly elite guy in the same conversation as the one's I mentioned, and I'm only selling the farm for a guy who guarantees an annual trip to the playoffs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'd sacrifice my first born son if we could somehow acquire Deshaun Watson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, NYRaider said: I'd sacrifice my first born son if we could somehow acquire Deshaun Watson. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CKSteeler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 10 hours ago, Broncofan said: but remember Gruden actually signs off on all the decisions too) with enough security to present that to Davis.. Did the terms of Gruden's deal ever actually get leaked behind the headline making 10 years? I find it hard to believe that even the most incompetent owner would actually sign a contract that gave a head coach 10 years of job security and which would require the team to buy out the rest of the contract with early termination. There has to be some bogus years worked in there or team options. Something. He may not be as secure as you think, is my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, CKSteeler said: Did the terms of Gruden's deal ever actually get leaked behind the headline making 10 years? I find it hard to believe that even the most incompetent owner would actually sign a contract that gave a head coach 10 years of job security and which would require the team to buy out the rest of the contract with early termination. There has to be some bogus years worked in there or team options. Something. He may not be as secure as you think, is my point. People forget that Gruden was getting north of 6M per year on MNF. That’s a 20 year gig if he stayed there. The only way he was leaving was for that kind of mega deal. Mark Davis was desperate to bring an air of legitimacy especially with the spectre of a move to LV. So yeah, Davis is on the hook here. Crazy it’s going south this quickly but Davis made his bed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CKSteeler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Broncofan said: People forget that Gruden was getting north of 6M per year on MNF. That’s a 20 year gig if he stayed there. The only way he was leaving was for that kind of mega deal. Mark Davis was desperate to bring an air of legitimacy especially with the spectre of a move to LV. So yeah, Davis is on the hook here. Crazy it’s going south this quickly but Davis made his bed here. I don't know. Mike Tomlin has more job security than the Pope and even the Rooney's wouldn't give him a 10 year deal with no possible exit strategy outside buying him out. Belichick wouldn't get a 10 year deal with no way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, CKSteeler said: I don't know. Mike Tomlin has more job security than the Pope and even the Rooney's wouldn't give him a 10 year deal with no possible exit strategy outside buying him out. Belichick wouldn't get a 10 year deal with no way out. When you have a MNF gig it’s a lifetime deal once you’re established (cough not Booger / Witten cough). It’s not the same as having another coaching gig. Gruden was making 6.5M a year with absolute job security. LV was an org with a long history of futility. There’s only one way you lure a candidate in that situation. Edited February 5, 2021 by Broncofan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evilpimp972 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 hours ago, paul-mac said: If you look at Brady, Rodgers, Peyton Manning back in the day, probably Mahomes going forward. Those elite level QBs pretty much guarantee you playoffs every year Peyton was in the playoffs 15/17 years as a starter, Mahomes 3/3, Brady an incredible 19/20 and Rodgers 10/13. Brees was a step below these guys at 60% rate of making the playoffs in New Orleans. Russell Wilson is 8/9 although I'm not sure he's really led many crappy teams in that time. Those guys shared the ability to put a crappy team on their back and still win 10+ games every year. Given the level of both draft pick compensation and salary that it's going to take to land Deshaun Watson, he's going to NEED to be as good as these guys to even give your team a chance to make the playoffs. I honestly don't think he's worth what these teams are looking at giving up for him. I view him as a second tier QB in the same conversation as guys like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott etc. I don't think Watson is a truly elite guy in the same conversation as the one's I mentioned, and I'm only selling the farm for a guy who guarantees an annual trip to the playoffs. Well by your logic Drew Brees is not an all time great since he missed the playoffs multiple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I can see the Raiders doing a nutty deal like this. Would make the trade for Carson Palmer look like nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul-mac Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 hours ago, evilpimp972 said: Well by your logic Drew Brees is not an all time great since he missed the playoffs multiple times. Brees is an all time great and a first ballot HOFer, but I think any team that traded like 4-5 first rounders for Brees entering his prime would have had egg on their face. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roninho Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18 hours ago, soflbillsfan said: What good is it for the Raiders to bail on Carr now though? They are not in a position to land Trevor Lawrence. They may get more ammo to go after Watson but even then that is not a for sure conclusion, as texans are saying NO to trade talks. So if you dump Carr who is going to step in and offer him the same playing ability as Carr gave them, Mariota did not look like he was the answer. You have to stick with Carr if you are Gruden, would be different if you held a top 3 pick and were in a position to land a rookie qb. Is carr even the issue? That defense seemed to break every time they faced a decent team. If for some reason they do move him Colts to me would be the best destination as he is in a dome and he is behind an oline that can protect him for days. Add some more weapons with the already capable running game, that would put the Colts on top in that division next year. Raiders and another franchise agree on a compenstation package to trade Carr for which the Raiders that is 24 hours on the table. Raiders then turn around to Texans and offer 4 1st round picks (or whatever it takes) to the Texans and make sure they have 12 hours and then the offer is off the table. If the Texans take it then the Carr deal goes ahead. If the Texans refuse the Carr deal is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Roninho said: If the Texans take it then the Carr deal goes ahead. If the Texans refuse the Carr deal is off the table. It's also contingent on Watson waiving his no trade clause. If Watson doesn't want to go to Las Vegas, he's not going to Las Vegas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roninho Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yeah fair point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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