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PRE-SB^2 MOCK: How Matthew Stafford became a Colt and how I learned to love to eat W's


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**SB^2 (Senior Bowl and Super Bowl)

Starting Cap Room: $1.8M

TRADES

  • Matthew Stafford - Traded to Indianapolis Colts for 2021 1st (#21) and 2021 3rd (+$14M in cap space)
  • Trey Flowers - Traded to Tennessee Titans for 2021 3rd (+$3.1M in cap space)
  • Jamie Collins - Traded to Miami Dolphins for 2021 4th (+$6.6M)
  • Justin Coleman - Traded to New York Jets for 2021 6th (+$4.9M)
  • Da'Shawn Hand - Traded to Denver Broncos for 2022 5th (+$920k)
  • Joe Dahl - Traded to Las Vegas Raiders for 2022 6th (+$2.84M)
  • Hal Vaitai - Traded to Cleveland Browns for 2022 6th (+$4.8M)

New Cap Room: $37.16M + $1.8M = $38.96

CUTS

  • Desmond Trufant (+$6.18M)
  • Jesse James (+$2.14M)
  • Nick Williams (+$4.65M)
  • Chase Daniel (+$2.3M)
  • Danny Shelton (+$4M)
  • Christian Jones (+$2.55M)

Total Cuts = $21.82M

New Cap Room = $60.78M

TRADES/CUTS: The time for change is now. Campbell has been signed to a 6 year deal, Matthew Stafford is on the trade block. It is a significant gutting of the roster but it does help open up cap space into the future and it allows us to transition towards the 4-3 defense Campbell and Glenn are bringing in with a focus towards athleticism. 

LET WALK

  • Kenny Golloday (expecting 2022 3rd comp)
  • Marvin Jones (expecting 2022 5th rd comp)
  • Danny Amendola
  • Duron Harmon
  • Daryl Roberts
  • Oday Aboushi
  • Adrian Peterson
  • Mohamed Sanu
  • Tony McRae
  • Romeo Okwara

LET WALK: Marvin is likely going to be looking at signing with a contender and has still been very productive as a Lion. Kenny wants to get paid and that money would be better spent on other parts of the roster. A number of Patriots-ish players are let go as they are free agents. 

RE-SIGN

  • Jarrad Davis - $2.5M x 2 Years
  • Matt Prater - $3.5M x 2 Years
  • Jack Fox - $1.5M x 3 Years
  • Jamal Agnew - $1M (Vet Minimum)
  • Reggie Ragland - $1M (Vet Minimum)
  • Jaylen Reeves-Maybin - $1M (Vet Minimum)
  • Miles Killebrew - $1M (Vet Minimum)
  • Don Muhlbach - $1M (Vet Minimum)
  • Michael Ford - $1M (Vet Minimum)
  • Matt Nelson - $1M (Vet Minimum)

TOTAL RE-SIGN = $14.5M

$60.78 - $14.5M = $46.28M

RE-SIGN: Campbell seems to be a fan of Jarrad Davis. JD has a lot of tools that could be utilized in this new scheme and comes back on a team friendly deal. Prater, Fox and Muhlbach are locks to be re-signed. JRM and Killebrew are excellent ST guys that could find an increased role in this new scheme. Agnew finds a spot on the roster as a returner and continues his development as a WR. Ragland had success under new LB coach DeLeone. For a team that is in need of help at LB, it's worth seeing if we can get something out of him. 

FREE AGENCY

  • Trey Hendrickson, DE (27) - 3 years x $10.3M
  • John Johnson, SS (26) - 5 Years x $8M
  • Troy Hill, SCB (29) - 1 year x $1.6M
  • Denzel Perryman, ILB (28) - 2 Years x $5M
  • Dalvin Tomlinson, DT (27) - 3 Year x $6M
  • Josh Reynolds, WR (26) - 3 years x $2.25M
  • Corey Davis, WR (26) - 4 years x $9.5M
  • Jameis Winston, QB - 1 year x $1.5M (Up to $10M with incentives)

TOTAL FREE AGENCY: $43.75M

NET CAP SPACE: $2.13M (All figures are APY with cap hit usually smaller in year 1; some vet min's below $1M)

FREE AGENCY: The Lions have a need on the defensive line. Instead of bringing back Okwara, we get a more proven commodity with scheme familiarity in Hendrickson. Tracy Walker slots back in at FS with the hope he improves in that role. As a result, we bring in a guy that Holmes is familiar with but also one of the top SS's to shore up our back end. Hill comes in as a veteran to help out Okudah and Oruwariye. Perryman is a veteran MLB which will allow Davis to push outside. Tomlinson becomes a veteran presence on the defensive line. With the loss of Marvin and Kenny, the Lions need a lot of help out wide. Davis comes back to Michigan as our #1 WR and is paired up with Reynolds from LA. Lastly, Campbell and Glenn are very familiar with Jameis Winston from his time in Tampa and New Orleans. Instead of competing with Taysom Hill for the Saints job, Jameis takes the chance to bet on himself and join MCDC as his likely starting QB. 

DRAFT CAPITAL:

Team Needs: QB, WR, RT, DE, 3T, WLB, CB, RB, TE

DRAFT

Lions trade #7 to Miami for #18 (Parsons), #50 (2nd), #255 (7th), 2022 5th

Lions trade #21 to Saints for #28 (Z. Collins), 132 (4th), 2022 3rd

2022 - +3rd, +5th (2), +6th (2)

  • #18 - Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami > Not a finished product, takes a Montez Sweat kind of drop. Has a lot of potential to be a disruptor on the DL.
  • #28 - Christian Barmore, 3T, Alabama > Guy that can generate a lot of interior pressure. Lions begin revamping their interior.
  • #39 - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama > The potential heir apparent to #9, has potential to be a pretty decent QB
  • #50 - Nico Collins, WR, Michigan > Has been out of football for a little while. Has had a nice showing at the Senior Bowl. Getting Denzel Mims vibes. Athletic guy with potential to develop into a WR1
  • #71 - Jabril Cox, WLB, LSU > Our new coach, Sheppard, was just coaching at LSU. Cox has all of the tools to be a dynamic new breed of WLB. 
  • #84 - Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford > Okudah and Oruwariye are young with potential but not 
  • #85 - Richie Grant, FS, UCF
  • #111 - Jamie Newman, QB, Wake Forest > Pulling a page out of
  • #122 - Jalen Twyman, 3T, Pittsburgh
  • #132 - Anthony Schwartz, WR, Auburn
  • #150 - Kylin HIll, RB, Mississippi State
  • #196 - Alaric Jackson, OT/OG, Iowa
  • #255 - Tarron Jackson, Edge, Coastal Carolina

SUMMARY: It feels like a lot of picks but we just witnessed the Vikings with 2 more (15 vs 13). It's a focus on adding talent in the immediate future, especially on defense, while adding assets to continue building out the roster in 2022 and beyond (14 2022 picks). We take the WFT RG3/Cousins approach double dipping at QB in the draft. The hope is that one of these three guys pans out and if not, the overall team should be better add someone else in 2022 or 2023. The entire defensive line is swapped out between FA and draft picks. We can't fix everything and the secondary gets some help in the slot and in the safety group. Ideally, Tracy Walker bounces back to form but Richie Grant can step in and be that guy. 

2022 Draft Capital

  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3 - Saints
  4. 3 - Comp (KG)
  5. 4
  6. 5
  7. 5 - Broncos
  8. 5 - Dolphins
  9. 5 - Comp (MJ)
  10. 6 - Raiders
  11. 6 - Browns
  12. 7

Free Agent; Rookie

DEPTH CHART

QB - Jameis, Jones, Newman

RB - Swift, Johnson, Hill

WR - Davis

WR - Reynolds, Collins

SWR - Cephus, Schwartz, Agnew

TE - Hockenson

LT - Decker

LG - Jackson

OC - Ragnow

RG - Stenberg

RT - Crosby, Jackson

 

DE - Hendrickson, Jackson

DT - Tomlinson

DT - Barmore, Twyman

DE - Rousseau

SLB - Davis

MLB - Perryman

WLB - Cox

CB - Okudah

CB - Oruwariye, Adebo

SCB - Hill

FS - Walker, Grant

SS - Johnson

Edited by Karnage84
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7 minutes ago, Superduperman said:

That is worlds of dead money youre racking up. I'd love to bounce 90% of this roster too, but I dunno

It is but we're in major rebuild mode. You're eating it for this year and then opening things up for the next few years. There's a few guys that are really not going to be good fits in the 4-3 that we seem to be moving towards. A guy like Collins tends to check out when the team is bad. I don't want someone like him here as a part of the culture change. 

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4 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

It is but we're in major rebuild mode. You're eating it for this year and then opening things up for the next few years. There's a few guys that are really not going to be good fits in the 4-3 that we seem to be moving towards. A guy like Collins tends to check out when the team is bad. I don't want someone like him here as a part of the culture change. 

No argument on wanting the Quinn guys out of here, but I don't think you can do it all in one year. I'll settle for them getting rid of Shelton and Nick Williams. No compromise on those two because they only have a million bucks dead cap hit each. But Vaitai and Collins and maybe even Trufant will probably have to stay for a year.

Edit: the thing is,  the cap going down. If not for that, I'd probably agree with you. But that, plus Stafford's dead cap hit, means we have to wait a little.

Edited by Superduperman
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3 minutes ago, Superduperman said:

No argument on wanting the Quinn guys out of here, but I don't think you can do it all in one year. I'll settle for them getting rid of Shelton and Nick Williams. No compromise on those two because they only have a million bucks dead cap hit each. But Vaitai and Collins and maybe even Trufant will probably have to stay for a year.

Edit: the thing is,  the cap going down. If not for that, I'd probably agree with you. But that, plus Stafford's dead cap hit, means we have to wait a little.

The numbers I have are coming from the Over The Cap Calculator, so I do believe it already accounts for the dead cap. Vaitai could be someone we keep on but I do think a good chunk of these guys will be let go. They could be June 1st cuts and push some of that into 2022 (assuming the cap will go up by then). 

 

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23 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

The numbers I have are coming from the Over The Cap Calculator, so I do believe it already accounts for the dead cap. Vaitai could be someone we keep on but I do think a good chunk of these guys will be let go. They could be June 1st cuts and push some of that into 2022 (assuming the cap will go up by then). 

 

I think you have to keep Vaitai unless you can give up capitol for a team to take on the salary.  If you trade him we eat over half of the cap/salary i believe so perhaps a team would be willing to do it if they get a mid level OT for the year at $5m.

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1 minute ago, Millenhater said:

I think you have to keep Vaitai unless you can give up capitol for a team to take on the salary.  If you trade him we eat over half of the cap/salary i believe so perhaps a team would be willing to do it if they get a mid level OT for the year at $5m.

According to Over The Cap, Dead Cap for a trade would be $5.6M while new cap room is $4.8M. 

 

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Yeah, even with the dead cap hits on alot of these guys you actually save money still outside of guys like Viati,Flowers,Collins. Till next year.

Idk, really hate Jamies Winston but I understand what you're doing. Change that name and I prolly like it better.

Lots of movement! But this is the year it'll happen if we're gonna trade like crazy.

Good job overall though, B+ stuff imo. Anyone that focuses on the O-line/D-line/Franchise Qb's is talking my rebuild language. Not my favorite players but i'll wait till off-season workouts to get knit-picky. 

Edited by SimbaWho
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4 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

According to Over The Cap, Dead Cap for a trade would be $5.6M while new cap room is $4.8M. 

 

Yeah, in a trade. Vs release. The other team is responsible for his Salary, which he has 9M still guaranteed that would now be the other teams responsibility. The Lions are responsible for the remaining sign bonus money that's been already paid but pro-rated, which now, is accelerated all up to this season.

So, 10.4( Salary+ProRatedSigningBonus/ Old cap hit) - 5.6(AcceleratedSignBonusMoney/ New cap hit) = 4.8 million in savings. 

If you outright cut him now, he's still owed that guaranteed salary plus accelerated signing bonus, all in one year, making him more expensive to cut than keep. Until June 1st. Idk whats with the new CBA but it seems after June 1st this year the cap hit signing bonus wouldn't be accelerated, making his cap hit the same as he cost now, if you released him after June 1st. Idk...

* 10.4 dead money/ orginal cap hit./ 0 savings.

* 1.4 dead money/ new cap hit./ 7 mill saved.

* 1.4 dead money " "/ 9 mill saved.

* 1.4 dead money. " "/ " "

I don't make the rules I'm just interpenetrating them... 

 

* Just for anyone having trouble following *

Edited by SimbaWho
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If all the salaries work as you lay it out, I am all for it. Cannot speak to every play added, but this would sure make for one h*ll of an exciting offseason.

Regarding the qbs- I generally like Jamis and think taking an inexpensive flyer on him makes sense given he is still only 27. As for the rooks;

1. Jones- been watching some tape and I really get a Drew Brees vibe from him. Solid arm strength, accurate, poised, and a great distributor. Wouldnt be surprised if he is the Staffs preferred target. 

2. Newman- real dark horse prospect in this class. Has good tools to work with and would be welcomed that late in the draft.

Edited by BarryTheBest
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