The Orlando Brown Situation

[diamondbull424]

2 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

What would people think if we traded him for something like the Chargers 2nd round pick and Mike Williams?

Not even sure if the Chargers would go for that because I'm not really sure how to properly value Williams. But I've been thinking a Brown trade could be a hidden path towards working the WR market as well particularly if we're not sure about the FA options.

If we ended up doing something like that (or sending him to JAX for a package that includes Chark), used our 1st rounder on a RT/Brown replacement, and then made Brandon Scherff our big FA signing, I think we could be really pleased with where we stand on offense. 

 

While I like the idea, I can’t fully support the WR. Which isn’t to say I don’t like MW.

My only issue would be Williams is making $15m this season and is on the last year of his deal. He could leave the year following unless we sign him, potentially giving him some negotiation leverage.

So unless we can reach a reasonable extension deal prior to the trade, I’d probably be against it. Reasonable being something like $12-15m APY.

That should still give us a strong shot to resign Andrews, Hollywood and Lamar as our offense’s core moving forward. That’s probably the kind of money we accounted for paying Orlando Brown Jr before his LT breakout. 

However if we have to pay Williams much more than such an extension number, than I think it would adversely impact our ability to retain some of those other core guys, leaving us in a similar situation as Brown Jr wanting to maximize his value.

That said, in this class with an early 2nd round pick I think we could get close enough to replacing Brown Jr’s level of play. Guys that could fall to a 2nd round slot would be Teven Jenkins, Liam Eichenburg, and Jalen Mayfield. I’d feel very confident with getting good RT play, they would also reset our “contract clock” with a rookie that isn’t looking to get paid so we can better space out our OL deals.

Personally I would use any remaining cap space to address the defense to mid level deals vs signing Brandon Scherff.

I think the point of trading Brown Jr should be spacing out the OL deals. Scherff IMO isn’t someone we can afford with Williams brought in.

But even if we could then we’re likely losing either Andrews and/or Brown in the near future. It would maximize this year, for sure, but I don’t think the maximization of this window would be far less than if we double dipped along the OL in the draft with our 4 top 100 picks, then went with another identified OL on day 3. Our OL pieces while mediocre aren’t terrible. If we could get two good to great pieces we’d already upgrade the level of play from 2020 while adding a high level #2 WR that’s a great fit for Lamar and our offense.

Something like:
#27: Alex Leatherwood
# 45: Trevon Moehrig
#59: Creed Humphrey
Comp: Rashad Weaver
Day 3: Drake Jackson

Between Leatherwood and Patrick Mekari I’d anticipate we’d get good RT play and have some depth to fill in for Stanley, in the event of him going down.

Along the interior, between Jackson and Humphrey they should solve the center position. If Jackson wins out, Creed would be a great guard. If Creed wins, we could have Mekari win the RG spot. Either way that’s a good starting unit with nice depth. 

Not as dominant as what Scherff could add, but would set us up better for the future seasons IMO.

[baltimoreRebel]

21 hours ago, DreamKid said:

Could see us having maybe one flashier pick out of our top selections. Like if one of the big receivers fell. Other than that though, yea.. expect OL centric picks.

I'm fine with devoting early picks to the offensive line. It needs to be addressed. We do have young guys who we are bringing along, sure. Either way, it needs to be addressed and anchor it to help Lamar and our run heavy offense. Unless we're landing a top WR in the draft. I'd rather sign or trade for a WR and get offensive line help, a TE, Edge and Safety help. 

[Ray Reed]

Are we sure Creed Humphrey is going to be around at the end of the 2nd? I’ve seen that thrown around a lot in some threads the past few weeks but isn’t he THE guy at C this year in the draft? 

Would be nice to get him there but i feel like a trade down from our 1st round pick into the early/mid-2nd is what we’d have to do to secure him...draftniks love this kid 

[diamondbull424]

4 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

Are we sure Creed Humphrey is going to be around at the end of the 2nd? I’ve seen that thrown around a lot in some threads the past few weeks but isn’t he THE guy at C this year in the draft? 

Would be nice to get him there but i feel like a trade down from our 1st round pick into the early/mid-2nd is what we’d have to do to secure him...draftniks love this kid 

Draftniks also loved Tyler Biadasz until they got wind of NFL teams and their feelings and then he fell to the 4th round. At around this point last year (tbf probably more like November/December) I was hyping up Cesar Ruiz as someone I really liked behind Biadasz, while draftniks had him consensus as a day 3 option.

But back to Creed, I personally wouldn’t wait to take him... that was just a mock draft simulator run, only I inserted Trevon Moerig in there with the pick we would’ve conceivable had gotten from the Chargers in the 2nd round, as per @SalvadorsDeli scenario. I was more so just running with that concept.

In terms of how I’d probably more realistically approach it, I agree. Considering his scenario, I might’ve used the Chargers pick to take Creed (better safe than sorry) and instead go with the next best safety option at some point later. Perhaps trade down with our 2nd round pick and then eventually draft Moerig’s teammate Ar’Darius Washington... or perhaps a Ritchie Grant or Tyree Gillespie as well.

But the things hurting Creed’s value are 1) this is the most stacked OL class I’ve ever seen, teams consistently tend to put a larger focus on drafting OTs and OGs above C’s on the draft board. So the first center off the board should get pushed down the board for that reason. 2) throw in the idea that some people seem to prefer Landon Dickerson above Creed Humphrey- I’m not one of them, but I’m sure there’s potentially a contingent within the NFL that thinks similarly 3) There will be a good second wave of center options to deploy with guys like Myers, Lindstrom, Hill, Jackson, etc. and teams are probably a little more likely to wait. 4) Scheme- some zone teams might prefer some of the other center options available, like a Myers or Lindstrom because of their athleticism to get 2nd level. 5) Snapping issues as a redshirt sophomore.

I think Creed is a 1st round OL talent in any normal draft year and could go anywhere from pick 20-64. We could get lucky by holding off, but if it were a real life scenario, I wouldn’t leave it up to chance. But as the draft gets closer I’m seeing more and more people lower Creed down their board and thus that makes me believe it’s likely NFL sources talking to them and feeding them input. But in terms of talent, I’d have Creed right alongside Kevin Zeitler along the IOL.

[ThatJaxxenGuy]

It’s unfortunate Orlando is getting into it now because I feel like building the Offensive Line is what will push this team over the hump.

id rather he stay for next season and one last run of it before shipping out in free agency unless we can get a monster haul for him. Proven player is probably more valuable than the picks when we are trying to win now 

Edited February 2, 2021 by ThatJaxxenGuy

[wackywabbit]

^Basically confirming that his short "I'm a LEFT tackle" tweet meant exactly what we thought it did.

[DreamKid]

Matt Judon- "My dad had a dream that I would be designated as a true base Defensive End and not merely as an OLB within a 3-4 Defense, and it's not about Defensive Ends making more on the franchise tag it was just his dream".

lol Jesus Orlando. Go ahead and chase the bag, but c'mon with the act 😅. This isn't the first time we've had fan favorites chase more money elsewhere in Free Agency and it certainly won't be the last. It's all good.

 

[warrenblue]

2 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

Matt Judon- "My dad had a dream that I would be designated as a true base Defensive End and not merely as an OLB within a 3-4 Defense, and it's not about Defensive Ends making more on the franchise tag it was just his dream".

lol Jesus Orlando. Go ahead and chase the bag, but c'mon with the act 😅. This isn't the first time we've had fan favorites chase more money elsewhere in Free Agency and it certainly won't be the last. It's all good.

 

Yeah I have to agree with this. I mean, he is just trying to say the right words, but we know it's all about the money. Let's say that our attempt to play him as a LT failed miserably this season (it didn't obviously). Do you see OB Jr saying the same words? Nah. He knows he is capable of playing LT and he knows that's the spot to target if he wants to get paid big time. I don't blame him, but as DK said, stop the freaking act. 

Our OL is clearly a weak spot. We have been able to squeeze good OLs with late round picks and UDFAs, but we let Jensen go, Yanda retired and Stanley is not reliable. We need to get at least 2 stud OL prospects out of this draft otherwise we're screwed. 

[coordinator0]

1 hour ago, wackywabbit said:

^Basically confirming that his short "I'm a LEFT tackle" tweet meant exactly what we thought it did.

I'm not encouraged about his prospects of being on the team come next season given how that is worded. 

[DreamKid]

1 hour ago, coordinator0 said:

I'm not encouraged about his prospects of being on the team come next season given how that is worded. 

Agree. Sounds like a deal will come this offseason. Cause I mean if he plays with us this year...it's clear he's betraying his father's memory 🙄.

[DreamKid]

Also you've got to love these moronic fans of other teams pondering a trade for Orlando. "I might give up a 3rd and -insert middling/mediocre player- for him".

OBJ is a 24 Y/O franchise Tackle. You'll give us what we tell you to give us. 

[drd23]

If he wants to play LT because of something his dad said 10 years ago he can do that even if its illogical

It doesn't really make financial sense to insist on playing LT given that only the elite LTs get paid more than good RTs, but people get sentimental about weird things (especially when it relates to dead relatives).

 

[drd23]

3 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

Also you've got to love these moronic fans of other teams pondering a trade for Orlando. "I might give up a 3rd and -insert middling/mediocre player- for him".

OBJ is a 24 Y/O franchise Tackle. You'll give us what we tell you to give us. 

They are no different than the idiot 9ers/Vikings fans on social media that weren't sure if Deshaun Watson would be an upgrade over Jimmy G/Kirk

Every fan base has them, and they are really only good for a laugh or should be ignored

[diamondbull424]

Tbf I really don’t think it IS about the money for Orlando Brown Jr, it’s about the idea- which is even worse. It’s like with a mercenary you can always pay them to go out and do their job, but with a believer, it’s not so simple. Brown Jr is a believer. He feels as though he IS a LT and he feels that LT is the highest form of achievement within his field. Even if the organization decided to pay him $19m to play RT, I don’t think he’d be satisfied with it.

Brown Jr making the pro bowl at LT and being nicknamed Big Drip has absolutely gone to his head and now it’s truly about living out his life’s dream. So the organization will do right by him and trade him this offseason, I’m sure. His value will never be higher, he’s still got one year left on his rookie deal to squeeze underneath a cap.

Lastly, these comments will make it even easier to move him. If this WERE about the money and getting the biggest bag possible, another team might be less inclined to provide highest value, believing they will have to pay Brown Jr $20m or something crazy. However, if it’s just about him being the starting LT for their ball club and not about breaking the bank, they’ll be more likely to hand over game changing compensation.
———

After watching the full Ozzie interview, I can’t help but to feel like the organization and Orlando won’t have any malice toward one another as they trade him, allowing him to fulfill a life’s dream. They will actually probably be happy for him. He got the chance to play LT with his favorite organization and make the PB, I’m sure like his dad, he’ll eventually be back with the organization at some point, whether its to retire or comeback home once his contract with whatever team we send him to runs out.

All in all, it’s just bad timing. Had Stanley went down LAST year and Brown Jr had this season, I’m sure the organization would’ve made the choice to trade Stanley and sign Brown vs the other way around, but it is what it is. Both Stanley and Brown Jr are safe bets in their own way. Wish Brown nothing but the best in proving the haters wrong who told him he couldn’t play the position, particularly after the worst NFL combine for a 1st round prospect I’ve ever seen. Oh well, Kyle Pitts would be a nice consolation prize for losing Brown Jr.

[DreamKid]

3 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

However, if it’s just about him being the starting LT for their ball club and not about breaking the bank, they’ll be more likely to hand over game changing compensation.

Would be funny if Miami acquired him then wanted him on Tua's blind side-.. which would be at RT.