The Orlando Brown Situation

[diamondbull424]

40 minutes ago, drd23 said:

Counter-point - Tunsil (+Stills) was traded for 2 1sts and a 2nd and it was thought at the time that this was a stupid trade and is now considered even worse in hindsight because that second 1st has turned into #3 overall.

As Jeff Zrebiec points out in the article on The Athletic that DK posted above, his trade value should fall somewhere in between what Miami got for Tunsil and what Houston got for Duane Brown (a 2nd and a 3rd, although Duane Brown was older), and that not knowing what is going to happen with the cap over the next year or two could make a trade harder.

I genuinely think a mid 1st is right around what we should expect, and anything more would be setting ourselves up for disappointment

I’m sorry, but that makes little sense from him then. Duane Brown was a 32 year old, 3x PB LT that hadn’t made the PB since his age 29 season (3 years) and was facing durability questions. His AV the previous two season prior to trade don’t equal Brown Jr’s AV of this past season. OB’s highest AV equals the highest AV DB had ever put up in a season, yet it was in his age 26/27 seasons, meaning he hadn’t put up a premier season in 5 years, when he was was traded for a 2nd and 3rd round pick; I’ll reiterate that was when he was at 32 years old.

Yet he believes that Orlando Brown Jr who has made the PB each of the last two seasons and will be entering his age 25 season this year should be partly scaled to Duane Brown? That’s absolutely nonsensical in every which way. The Tunsil deal while an overpay, was a clear overpay because it was for two 1st round picks (and another 2nd)- and at a time before those deals had become the norm. It’s also worse in retrospect because the Dolphins have an opportunity to draft Penei Sewell, a generational LT prospect. If not for that aspect, if the Texans didn’t completely implode, we’d look back on that deal far more favorably. If the Texans were a playoff team this season and considering Tunsil making back to back PBs since that trade, depending on what the Dolphins had done with those late picks, there’d be the potential for the fact that the Texans broke even with the Tunsil deal. And again, I’m not really considering Kenny Stills a major value contributor in that deal. He was a possible cut due to his comments and the Texans also shipped out multiple players in that deal as well.

But since the Tunsil deal, we’ve seen other such deals of young PB level talents where they’ve garnered multiple 1st round picks, so the shockwaves are far more tame now then they were at the time, when Tunsil’s deal went down.

EDIT: For example, had the Texans made the playoffs- as many anticipated, that deal could’ve been something like-

Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn
Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
Landon Dickerson, IOL, Alabama

for

Laremy Tunsil

————

Considering they were in a win now mode and considering Tunsil making multiple PBs and being the best part of that OL, under a different narrative, it’s easy to see a scenario where the Texans come away from that deal unscathed. However the extra 2nd was certainly overkill and especially so at the time.

Edited February 12, 2021 by diamondbull424

[baltimoreRebel]

6 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

I’ll just be happy once he’s traded and this predicament is behind us. As it stands, I think the reality is probably everyone is underestimating his value, including us. He was voted on as a pro bowl starter. Which means there’s obviously great respect he ushers across the league. Brown Jr has matched up with the likes of TJ Watt and Myles Garrett and lived to tell the story... he’s given up no sacks at LT. I’d be willing to bet most would assume those guys would go for multiple 1sts+, yet we’re all assuming (myself included) he goes for a single mid 1st or late 1st and mid-late 2nd.

After much thought, especially with the Ravens emphasis on the OL this offseason, I feel I’ve undervalued Orlando Brown Jr and where he likely weighs in their mind. In actuality, I think they probably put a value of two 1st round picks on him for any team interested in acquiring him... and I think enough teams will be wiling to pay that (or put their name in the hat before bowing out).

Jaguars, Vikings, Giants, and Chargers could all be willing buyers.

My final guess as to where Brown Jr ultimately goes is the Minnesota Vikings. They’re OL has been a serious problem for years now, they’re just one pick behind the Chargers, and of the two teams I could more easily see the Vikings being willing to part with two 1st round picks. Tom Telesco (Chargers GM) has mentioned he envisions the Chargers to be a draft driven organization and thus I think he ultimately taps out at one 1st round pick.

While the Vikings and the Ravens have already worked together on the Ngakoue deal, so there’s definitely going to be some familiarity there. Plus, if there’s a team that has enough of a track record to be a playoff caliber team that could be aggressive enough to make this deal, while simultaneously could end up as a team where the players quit and ultimately earns a top 5-10 pick in the 2022 NFL draft, I’d put the Vikings high up on my list. They’ve shown with trading for Yannick Ngakoue from the Jags that they’re willing to be aggressive in obtaining a player. Yet they’re a Kirk Cousins full season implosion and a veteran coach losing the locker room away from ending up in a premium draft slot. So I think they could present a strategic opportunity for us to attach our future value to. What’s more while the Vikings are without their 2nd round pick, which the Jags have, they still have 10 picks in the upcoming draft. Getting a PB LT and offering up a 4th round pick, would still leave them with 8 picks in the draft to plug up some holes. So that’s my prediction.

Vikings get:
Orlando Brown Jr

Ravens get:
2021 #14- 1st
2021 #115- 4th
2022 1st Round Pick

I'm going to go with an obvious team here. Jaguars are bringing in their franchise QB in Trevor Lawrence. They need to protect him in the worst way. They'd be getting a guaranteed top end LT with very little risk compared to drafting a tackle. The scenario I see here is this. 

Jaguars get:

Orlando Brown Jr. 

Ravens get:

2021 #25 1st Round

2021 #47 2nd Round 

2022 2nd Round Pick

They have the draft capital to give up these picks in the 2021 draft and they avoid giving up a 1st rounder next year. It solidifies Lawrence's blind side and they're not mortgaging their future. 

Ravens receive a 2nd next year that will likely be in the top 5 of the 2nd round, almost making it another 1st.

Edited February 12, 2021 by baltimoreRebel

[diamondbull424]

6 minutes ago, baltimoreRebel said:

I'm going to go with an obvious team here. Jaguars are bringing in their franchise QB in Trevor Lawrence. They need to protect him in the worst way. They'd be getting a guaranteed top end LT with very little risk compared to drafting a tackle. The scenario I see here is this. 

Jaguars get:

Orlando Brown Jr. 

Ravens get:

2021 #25 1st Round

2021 #47 2nd Round 

2021 2nd Round Pick

They have the draft capital to give up these picks in the 2021 draft and they avoid giving up a 1st rounder next year. It solidifies Lawrence's blind side and they're not mortgaging their future. 

Ravens receive a 2nd next year that will likely be in the top 5 of the 2nd round, almost making it another 1st.

Guessing you meant there 2022 2nd? I could see this being of enough value. It’s right around that two 1sts value. They’ve also coveted a lot of members of our coaching staff. Could certainly see them coveting some of our players as well. Could work out for all sides.

[baltimoreRebel]

Just now, diamondbull424 said:

Guessing you meant there 2022 2nd? I could see this being of enough value. It’s right around that two 1sts value. They’ve also coveted a lot of members of our coaching staff. Could certainly see them coveting some of our players as well. Could work out for all sides.

I did, I'll edit that now. Lol

[drd23]

5 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

But since the Tunsil deal, we’ve seen other such deals of young PB level talents where they’ve garnered multiple 1st round picks, so the shockwaves are far more tame now then they were at the time, when Tunsil’s deal went down.

1) Pro Bowls aren't exactly a good metric of who is and isn't a good player given how much of a popularity contest they are, especially on the OL

2) Who are they?  According to this article, these are the only players traded for multiple 1st in recent times

Jamal Adams had been a 1st team All-Pro and a 2nd team All-Pro before he was traded (and that was also arguably a bad trade)
Jalen Ramsey had been a 1st team All-Pro
Tunsil was a stupid trade then and only done because BoB didn't know what he was doing
Khalil Mack had been a DPOY and 2 time 1st team All-Pro

You have to go back to Jay Cutler to find the last player who was traded for 2 1sts who has the same or lesser accolades.

Basically you need someone else to make a poor decision or to trade a better player with more awards/a higher reputation if you want 2 1st round picks.  Sure, all it takes is one team to overpay, but I think it wouldn't be smart to expect that to happen

[diamondbull424]

37 minutes ago, drd23 said:

1) Pro Bowls aren't exactly a good metric of who is and isn't a good player given how much of a popularity contest they are, especially on the OL

2) Who are they?  According to this article, these are the only players traded for multiple 1st in recent times

Jamal Adams had been a 1st team All-Pro and a 2nd team All-Pro before he was traded (and that was also arguably a bad trade)
Jalen Ramsey had been a 1st team All-Pro
Tunsil was a stupid trade then and only done because BoB didn't know what he was doing
Khalil Mack had been a DPOY and 2 time 1st team All-Pro

You have to go back to Jay Cutler to find the last player who was traded for 2 1sts who has the same or lesser accolades.

Basically you need someone else to make a poor decision or to trade a better player with more awards/a higher reputation if you want 2 1st round picks.  Sure, all it takes is one team to overpay, but I think it wouldn't be smart to expect that to happen

1. I didn’t simply use PBs, throughout this thread I’ve mentioned PFF, AV, and PBS.. I’d use FO if they had OL players graded. However even considering the probowl being a ‘popularity contest’ how does a player become popular with other players and coaches to accumulate a high number of votes, particularly as a young player? Talent and exposure. Brown Jr was the 8th graded OT on true passing sets in 2019 by PFF and improved in 2020. He's an ascending talent and has the positional value in his favor.

2. Firstly I listed those names already so questioning the point and then listing the same names again seems a little extra, don’t you think? You just listed FOUR trades occurrences over the last three seasons of young PB talents that all went for AT LEAST two 1st round picks. You can add qualifiers like “well most of them made All Pro” all you want, but it doesn’t cover all the names you listed. What’s more what’s worth more in the league, a top 10 LT or a top 3 box safety?

Also what holds more relevance trades that have taken place over the last two seasons with similarly aged prospects that were on rookie deals (Ramsey, Adams, Tunsil) OR a deal done four years ago for a veteran OT that was 7 years older?

Now the notion of somewhere in between “2nd & 3rd” and “1st, 1st, 2nd” isn’t very brave. Two 1sts would fall somewhere in between that offer. However the issue of contention isn’t that concept, but using Brown as an established precedent in this instance. It’s foolish. They’re two completely separate scenarios due to the age group. Or do you suppose that a 25-27 year old Duane Brown fresh off “popularity contest” performances would have still only garnered a 2nd and 3rd round pick? The fact that he brought back such lush returns given his advanced age should tell you just how much teams value the LT position when trying to protect a young/franchise QB.

3. You claim it needs a better player or a massive mistake made. In what EDC trades that we’ve seen has he come away from the deal in a neutral or losing position? What do you think makes this scenario any different?Whether another teams give up two 1sts doesn’t somehow make them dumb for doing so. If the Ravens could trade two 1st for DeVonta Smith, a player who has proven absolutely nothing in the league, I would do it in a heartbeat and worry about the ramifications later. For teams who have struggled to hit on OTs and have young QBs they want to protect or are paying a veteran QB a lot of money, bringing in an ascending LT option makes all the sense.

Ronnie Stanley was an All Pro and I’m sure if it came down to it, there’d by enough of a split within the fanbase if the question was asked, which OT would you rather trade; Stanley or Brown Jr. Orlando has been very durable and good all around, he also plays with more passion. The performance difference between Stanley and Brown Jr was largely negligible, yet Brown was consistently a healthier option on a snap to snap basis. If the perceived value is roughly similar for both LT options, what would drastically change the value equation for a team trading for Brown Jr vs Stanley.
————

But hey, if it happens, I’m sure the excuse will be that whatever team opted to make such a deal did it because they were stupid and not because there’s a trend that has popped over the last three seasons and that’s simply the new cost of doing business. Both the Seahawks and Texans were both stupid for making their trades, well with EDC at the helm, I’ll anticipate another team looking stupid as the end result vs assuming we settle for a late 1st for a PB LT on his rookie deal where we possess all the leverage... that to me, sounds far more stupid than the other way around... and I don’t take EDC to be a stupid man.

[Ray Reed]

14 hours ago, drd23 said:

Counter-point - Tunsil (+Stills) was traded for 2 1sts and a 2nd and it was thought at the time that this was a stupid trade and is now considered even worse in hindsight because that second 1st has turned into #3 overall.

As Jeff Zrebiec points out in the article on The Athletic that DK posted above, his trade value should fall somewhere in between what Miami got for Tunsil and what Houston got for Duane Brown (a 2nd and a 3rd, although Duane Brown was older), and that not knowing what is going to happen with the cap over the next year or two could make a trade harder.

I genuinely think a mid 1st is right around what we should expect, and anything more would be setting ourselves up for disappointment

Yup. Been saying this since the news came out - fans are naturally going to be dreaming up these best case scenarios and playing them off as "realistic" but this is about what we should expect...a mid-first at the highest imo and more likely value equivalent to a late first and a 2nd or maybe 3rd.

People like Zrebiec and McKusick know more about what this trade might bring us IMO and over optimistic posts on this board are fun, for sure, but they won't change my mind lol. 

I mean people in here are talking MULTIPLE first rounders AND stuff on top of that.

That's absurd lol.

Edited February 12, 2021 by Ray Reed

[diamondbull424]

On 2/12/2021 at 2:51 AM, baltimoreRebel said:

I'm going to go with an obvious team here. Jaguars are bringing in their franchise QB in Trevor Lawrence. They need to protect him in the worst way. They'd be getting a guaranteed top end LT with very little risk compared to drafting a tackle. The scenario I see here is this. 

Jaguars get:

Orlando Brown Jr. 

Ravens get:

2021 #25 1st Round

2021 #47 2nd Round 

2022 2nd Round Pick

They have the draft capital to give up these picks in the 2021 draft and they avoid giving up a 1st rounder next year. It solidifies Lawrence's blind side and they're not mortgaging their future. 

Ravens receive a 2nd next year that will likely be in the top 5 of the 2nd round, almost making it another 1st.

After looking over the Trade Value Chart and factoring in a future 2nd value as the 64th pick in the round (regular practice for future picks), this trade would supply 1440 Trade Value Points, which is equal to receiving both the 25 and 26th picks in the draft- roughly. Plus the Jags would be in a great position to supplement that value with all the picks they have in this draft. I know I responded to this before, but I’ve been looking up the actual values according to the chart and this would definitely be a quality haul that would be a win/win/win in terms of Brown, Ravens, and Jags. I think your return value of two late 1sts is probably the most realistic value; something in that 1400-1600 TVP range.

Based on those parameters and looking toward the Giants offer I suggested, I think it would adjust to:
2021 #11
2021 #42
2022 1st

Orlando Brown Jr
2021 #27
2021 Compensatory 3rd

Would equate to roughly 1550 Trade Value points and allow the Giants assets to still attack their needs through the draft. If the Chargers are in a similar spot where they don’t want to part with enough draft assets, we could similarly look to swap picks to give rebuilding teams enough assets to continue to build, while the premium selections would give us a chance at getting the value we want in return for Brown Jr. Which should begin and end with two 1sts... assuming we move him. I’m sort of hoping we can get a future 1st vs getting a future 2nd, just because if we can hit the lotto like the Dolphins did, it could really pay huge dividends down the road. Though in your scenario getting the 1st upfront would certainly go a long way towards making the 2021 team as competitive as it can be to maximize this window.

[baltimoreRebel]

20 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

After looking over the Trade Value Chart and factoring in a future 2nd value as the 64th pick in the round (regular practice for future picks), this trade would supply 1440 Trade Value Points, which is equal to receiving both the 25 and 26th picks in the draft- roughly. Plus the Jags would be in a great position to supplement that value with all the picks they have in this draft. I know I responded to this before, but I’ve been looking up the actual values according to the chart and this would definitely be a quality haul that would be a win/win/win in terms of Brown, Ravens, and Jags. I think your return value of two late 1sts is probably the most realistic value; something in that 1400-1600 TVP range.

Based on those parameters and looking toward the Giants offer I suggested, I think it would adjust to:
2021 #11
2021 #42
2022 1st

Orlando Brown Jr
2021 #27
2021 Compensatory 3rd

Would equate to roughly 1550 Trade Value points and allow the Giants assets to still attack their needs through the draft. If the Chargers are in a similar spot where they don’t want to part with enough draft assets, we could similarly look to swap picks to give rebuilding teams enough assets to continue to build, while the premium selections would give us a chance at getting the value we want in return for Brown Jr. Which should begin and end with two 1sts... assuming we move him. I’m sort of hoping we can get a future 1st vs getting a future 2nd, just because if we can hit the lotto like the Dolphins did, it could really pay huge dividends down the road. Though in your scenario getting the 1st upfront would certainly go a long way towards making the 2021 team as competitive as it can be to maximize this window.

EDC is going to do everything he can do to get max value. He's a 24 year old 2 time pro bowl tackle. I want the Firsts round picks as well but I don't think Jacksonville will do that because they need to be somewhat self aware. That's likely a top 5 pick next year. 2nd just made more sense. 

I'm anxious for this deal to get done just so we know what we're working with come late April. 

That said. I do hope that EDC takes his time and really draws out the best offer because there's going to be more than a few teams interested. 

Edited February 15, 2021 by baltimoreRebel

[HuskieBear]

apologies if this has been thrown out there, i didn't really feel like combing through 9 pages to find out. would a base package trade of Brown for Allen Robinson make sense for you guys? I'm not familiar with your cap situation, so i'm not sure how a WR franchise tag/long term deal would affect y'all, but it seems like you have a player you can't afford to pay, and have a need at WR. Maybe this works? 

Again, i say "base package" because I'm sure there would have to be a little bit more thrown in on either side, whether it's picks or other players, but it's at least a starting point. A 25 year old LT/RT for a 26 year old #1 WR. Thoughts?

[Boodgyman5220]

34 minutes ago, HuskieBear said:

apologies if this has been thrown out there, i didn't really feel like combing through 9 pages to find out. would a base package trade of Brown for Allen Robinson make sense for you guys? I'm not familiar with your cap situation, so i'm not sure how a WR franchise tag/long term deal would affect y'all, but it seems like you have a player you can't afford to pay, and have a need at WR. Maybe this works? 

Again, i say "base package" because I'm sure there would have to be a little bit more thrown in on either side, whether it's picks or other players, but it's at least a starting point. A 25 year old LT/RT for a 26 year old #1 WR. Thoughts?

Honestly I think we’d be selling short on this. Trade a young upcoming excellent offensive tackle for the right to pay a good receiver top dollar. I think our team would value picks higher because they result in young cost controlled players. We have quite a few of young core players coming up  for their second contracts.

[HuskieBear]

1 hour ago, Boodgyman5220 said:

Honestly I think we’d be selling short on this. Trade a young upcoming excellent offensive tackle for the right to pay a good receiver top dollar. I think our team would value picks higher because they result in young cost controlled players. We have quite a few of young core players coming up  for their second contracts.

thats certainly a consideration. as i mentioned, that would just be the base of the deal. there would certainly additions to it - an exchange of 1st round picks for instance, which is the equivalent of a 3rd rounder. correct me if i'm wrong, but one of your few young core players is Brown, and from what i've read you guys might not be able to afford him at what he's worth considering the deal that Staley just got

[Boodgyman5220]

20 minutes ago, HuskieBear said:

thats certainly a consideration. as i mentioned, that would just be the base of the deal. there would certainly additions to it - an exchange of 1st round picks for instance, which is the equivalent of a 3rd rounder. correct me if i'm wrong, but one of your few young core players is Brown, and from what i've read you guys might not be able to afford him at what he's worth considering the deal that Staley just got

I’m no cap expert but we have about four young core players coming up for extensions in the next two years, so yes, it seems as if we’ll have to choose between a few players, which is one reason why I think we would prefer picks to expensive players. Like I said though, I’m no cap expert

[wackywabbit]

I saw the Colts were one of the teams rumored to have some interest. We know there was some talk or speculation about moving Nelson to LT. They may also be shorter on draft picks if/when they make a move for a QB. What if instead of sliding Nelson over or having to find both LT and QB, they trade Quenton Nelson to us for Brown and 3rd round draft picks in both 2021 and 2022 (Culley picks). The Colts get a player at a more valuable position that they can pay with all their cap space and have as the blindside for their new QB. The Ravens actually improve on the O-line and get the next Yanda.

Never going to happen, but it'd be fun.

[diamondbull424]

6 hours ago, HuskieBear said:

thats certainly a consideration. as i mentioned, that would just be the base of the deal. there would certainly additions to it - an exchange of 1st round picks for instance, which is the equivalent of a 3rd rounder. correct me if i'm wrong, but one of your few young core players is Brown, and from what i've read you guys might not be able to afford him at what he's worth considering the deal that Staley just got

Meh. I love Allen Robinson, I don’t love player trades. Brown Jr has an additional year of cost control under his belt and plays a premium position. I’d like to think we could get a package that provides at least mid 1st round value for him. What’s more, the Bears will have to restructure about 4 players to have the needed cash to franchise Robinson.

If Robinson makes it to FA, I’d be for signing him to a deal. But I’m much less interested in a franchise and trade option. There’s far less precedent to go off of in player for player trades IMO. Peak value could potentially be lost in translation. I’d rather you guys trade Robinson for picks and then trade us those picks for Brown Jr.