SkippyX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 (edited) This whole thread is a trap, BTW. We all know that Dak was a very good rookie QB and his career has been disappointing since then. 13-3 with a 104.9 rating vs 29-24 with a 95.4 rating He is one of the stars of AMERICAS GAME: The Week 11 2018 through Week 3 2019 Super Bowl Champion Dallas Cowboys Wentz is 28-23-1 with a 92.4 rating since 2016 and that includes the 2020 joke season Edited January 30, 2021 by SkippyX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Quote There are 40 seasons all-time with 8.00 + adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A). Although there are some surprises/outliers, most of the best QB seasons of all time are above this threshold, although it obviously skews towards modern QB play as efficiency has skyrocketed. Their average ANY/A between those seasons is included. Aaron Rodgers: 4 (8.73) Drew Brees: 4 (8.34) Tom Brady: 4 (8.55) Peyton Manning: 3 (8.89) Patrick Mahomes: 3 (8.49) Steve Young: 3 (8.21) Phillip Rivers: 2 (8.17) *Peyton has 2 additional seasons of 7.9+ *Kurt Warner just missed the cutoff with an ANY/A of 7.97 in his second best season. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_adj_net_yds_per_att_single_season.htm Peyton Manning (28) 9.78 2004 IND 2 Aaron Rodgers (27) 9.39 2011 GNB 3 Nick Foles (24) 9.18 2013 PHI 4 Matt Ryan (31) 9.03 2016 ATL 5 Dan Marino+ (22) 8.94 1984 MIA 6 Patrick Mahomes (22) 8.89 2018 KAN Aaron Rodgers (36) 8.89 2020 GNB 8 Tom Brady (30) 8.88 2007 NWE 9 Peyton Manning (37) 8.87 2013 DEN 10 Tom Brady (39) 8.81 2016 NWE 11 Aaron Rodgers (30) 8.65 2014 GNB 12 Randall Cunningham (35) 8.54 1998 MIN Josh McCown (34) 8.54 2013 CHI 14 Ryan Tannehill (31) 8.52 2019 TEN 15 Drew Brees (39) 8.47 2018 NOR 16 Carson Palmer (35) 8.41 2015 ARI 17 Patrick Mahomes (23) 8.38 2019 KAN 18 Mark Rypien (28) 8.34 1991 WAS 19 Drew Brees (40) 8.33 2019 NOR Patrick Mahomes (24) 8.33 2020 KAN 21 Joe Montana+ (33) 8.31 1989 SFO Drew Brees (30) 8.31 2009 NOR Kurt Warner+ (28) 8.31 1999 STL 24 Philip Rivers (27) 8.30 2009 SDG 25 Steve Young+ (29) 8.28 1991 SFO 26 Tom Brady (33) 8.25 2010 NWE Tom Brady (34) 8.25 2011 NWE 28 Steve Young+ (32) 8.24 1994 SFO 29 Drew Brees (32) 8.23 2011 NOR 30 Deshaun Watson (24) 8.22 2020 HOU 31 Lamar Jackson (22) 8.19 2019 BAL 32 Andy Dalton (27) 8.17 2015 CIN 33 Matthew Stafford (31) 8.15 2019 DET 34 Steve Young+ (30) 8.12 1992 SFO 35 Tony Romo (34) 8.11 2014 DAL 36 Ryan Fitzpatrick (35) 8.04 2018 TAM Philip Rivers (26) 8.04 2008 SDG 38 Peyton Manning (29) 8.03 2005 IND 39 Daunte Culpepper (27) 8.02 2004 MIN 40 Aaron Rodgers (29) 8.00 2013 GNB 41 Kurt Warner+ (29) 7.97 2000 STL 42 Joe Montana+ (28) 7.93 1984 SFO Peyton Manning (30) 7.93 2006 IND 44 Ryan Tannehill (32) 7.90 2020 TEN 45 Peyton Manning (36) 7.89 2012 DEN 46 Donovan McNabb (27) 7.87 2004 PHI 47 Dak Prescott (23) 7.86 2016 DAL 48 Dak Prescott (26) 7.84 2019 DAL 49 Matt Schaub (30) 7.83 2011 HOU 50 Ben Roethlisberger (32) 7.82 2014 PIT Feel free to point out how many of these seasons are swayed by the QB not throwing the ball enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Fray32 said: Now the question becomes, did they lose because Brees was inefficient or was Brees inefficient because they were losing? I mean that genuinely. Its a good point. And it circles back to my main argument for all NFL teams. Your goals should be: Make your QB efficient. Make the other QB inefficient. 5 minutes ago, Fray32 said: Was Dak really worse this year before his injury than his rookie season? Now I don't watch many Cowboys games and I won't try to shape a narrative around boxscore scouting, but it seemed to me that, despite the record, Dak was willing Dallas to stay competitive in every game he played in. (No small feat, given the locker-room was on the cusp of mutiny against their DC? And their HC literally conned his way into the job?) No. Daks efficiency numbers are greatly hurt by 2 INTs on hailmarys. Those are fluke plays which do sway his numbers ( @Bearerofnews). He didnt have a large enough data sample to overcome their weighting in the 4.5 games he played. If you back those out, his efficiency numbers were also some of the best in the league. 5 minutes ago, Fray32 said: I genuinely want to stress this question, too. I think most of us on this site understand the fallacy of "My teams chances of winning improve when my lead back rushes for 100 yards" to mean "more rushing yards implies better chance of winning". So, are these QB efficiency stats actually predictive or merely descriptive of performance? Is it causation or just correlation? Its not just efficient, its more efficient than your opponent. There are 2 pieces to it. If your QB has an 8.0 ANY/A (a great game) but your opponent has an 8.5 ANY/A - chance are about 85% that you lost (depending on study). Obviously there are other factors, like if your running back fumbles 4 times or whatever. But those are the exception. I think ANY/A, QBR, Rating all fall into a more descriptive state - though some QBs are consistent. Sadly, because I dont like them much, PFF is the most predictive. Their grades from past games are generally going to tell you if your QB will play well in future games. I posted the study a few months ago. 5 minutes ago, Fray32 said: I actually love the passer rating stat as a handy back-of-the-envelope number to get a sense of performance, but I remember reading on PFF a long time ago that passer rating was more of a (paraphrasing) description of the performance of the passing game overall vs. just how well the QB played. Thats true. Passer rating does not take into effect a few major things: 1. QB's who use their legs. 2. All negative plays (sacks, fumbles). 3. Did the QB accomplish the goal. IE - throwing for 5 yards on 3rd and 10 is a failure. Throwing for 5 yards on 3rd and 3 is a success. On a side note - Expected points added and all its variations are pretty decent as well. Its just average football fans dont know them, and I hate explaining them every time I qoute. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, SkippyX said: This whole thread is a trap, BTW. We all know that Dak was a very good rookie QB and his career has been disappointing since then. 13-3 with a 104.7 rating vs 29-24 with a 95.4 rating He is one of the stars of AMERICAS GAME: The Week 11 2018 through Week 3 2019 Super Bowl Champion Dallas Cowboys Wentz is 28-23-1 with a 92.4 rating since 2016 and that includes the 2020 joke season Take out the games where we had no RB (since you think thats important), a terrible OL that went through 3 OL coaches, and literally the worst WRs in the NFL in getting open (according to next gen stats) and those numbers are drastically different for Daks career. It starts Falcon '17 and goes for about 10 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 53 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: I addressed this in the other thread. Twice. You can respond here if you would like. We are talking season long trends with 400-600 passes. Not a single game comparison. 140 is a significant difference. Dak averaged 28 pass attempts a game. 140 attempts would be him playing 5 whole more games. Just look at his 17th game.. his averages already started showing a deviation from the mean for his season long data-points. Also on the last thread you tried using game per basis aggregation of his avg. I mean i can do the same for Herbert and show 90% of his games were at 100+ passer rating ticker. Throw out 2020 (5 game sample) 17 and 18 his efficiency dipped substantially as he increased his data points. In 2019 it trended back up with his highest amount of data-points. To me Wilson and RG3 aren't even up for debate. They had 200 less attempts. For Wilson that is 8 more games and if you look at turnovers and sacks per touch. The difference in efficiency did not negate the difference in counting stats dominance. 53 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: I addressed this in the other thread. Feel free to respond here. Three options here. I miswrote, which I dont think I did. I knew he had one. You are a liar. You need new bi-focals. ET edited your reply. If you said 1, my apologies. Pretty sure you said 4... because 1 MVP vote is a weird flex. Especially when his own rookie backfield team mate got 5 more votes. Herbert had the most prolific rookie season and his efficiency was still very good and near the other 3... then when you account for situational differences... i believe Herbert's will historically be looked as as substantially the more dominant. Efficient doesn't equal best or most dominant. Efficiency is merely maximizing your opportunities. Herbert was doing things no other rookie has. But when all else fails. Throw on the tape. Herbert was a whole different level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 (edited) I addressed almost all this, and it took like 30 minutes. But @ET80 deleted it all instead of moving it. Kinda of a mean move since he opened this thread while I was researching the other thread. Which I am not going to do again, so you will get bullet points. 22 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said: 140 is a significant difference. Dak averaged 28 pass attempts a game. 140 attempts would be him playing 5 whole more games. Just look at his 17th game.. his averages already started showing a deviation from the mean for his season long data-points. Are you talking regular season? The final game of his rookie year he played like 2 series and threw the ball 4 times I think. His 17th game he threw it 40 times against the Packers, a game he played really well against in the playoffs. Quote Also on the last thread you tried using game per basis aggregation of his avg. I mean i can do the same for Herbert and show 90% of his games were at 100+ passer rating ticker. I think you are confused on what I am saying. I am not saying Herbert was bad. Im saying he was 4th best in the modern pass happy league. Out of the dozens (hundreds) of QBs drafted - thats elite. Quote Throw out 2020 (5 game sample) 17 and 18 his efficiency dipped substantially as he increased his data points. In 2019 it trended back up with his highest amount of data-points. 2017 he lost his WRs, OL and Zeke starting the Falcons game (which he was sacked 8 times and looked concussed). He sucked until a few games into 2018 when during that time we went through 3 OL coaches and had the worst WRs in the NFL according to next gen stats. He was surrounded by horrific talent and coaching and he suffered. Once we promoted Marc Colombo to OL coach and traded for Cooper, Dak returned to a top ~5-10 QB. Quote To me Wilson and RG3 aren't even up for debate. They had 200 less attempts. For Wilson that is 8 more games and if you look at turnovers and sacks per touch. The difference in efficiency did not negate the difference in counting stats dominance. ET edited your reply. If you said 1, my apologies. Pretty sure you said 4... because 1 MVP vote is a weird flex. Especially when his own rookie backfield team mate got 5 more votes. Well, I couldnt flex OPOY since Herbert will win that also, wont he? haha Quote Herbert had the most prolific rookie season and his efficiency was still very good and near the other 3... then when you account for situational differences... i believe Herbert's will historically be looked as as substantially the more dominant. I doubt it. Every year the bulk numbers for QBs go up. Herberts season beat Bakers numbers from a couple years ago. Lawrence might break them next year. Quote Efficient doesn't equal best or most dominant. Efficiency is merely maximizing your opportunities. Herbert was doing things no other rookie has. But when all else fails. Throw on the tape. Herbert was a whole different level. Efficient past a reasonable threshold does equal best or most dominant. Thats why the MVP often goes to the QB with the most efficient season that has acceptable bulk production (and wins). Edited January 30, 2021 by Matts4313 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: Efficient past a reasonable threshold does equal be or most dominant. Thats why the MVP often goes to the QB with the most efficient season that has acceptable bulk production (and wins). ahh haaa that is the key. Acceptable volume. There is no standard baseline for that threshold per se when it comes to attempts. I think personally 450.. the very minimum has to be 400. It's why i don't think Wilson and RG3 have much of an argument. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 44 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said: ahh haaa that is the key. Acceptable volume. There is no standard baseline for that threshold per se when it comes to attempts. I think personally 450.. the very minimum has to be 400. It's why i don't think Wilson and RG3 have much of an argument. Dak had about 550 touches in his first 16 full games in his rookie season. ~490 were passes. This includes the playoffs, which was his 16th game. Russell and RG3 both had about 500 touches, 400 passing. Both played 16 games so it doesnt include their playoff production. I think its unfair to exclude that both RG3 and RW were much more productive on the ground than Dak and Herbert. Even though Dak/Justin were no slouches in that regard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MagicMT Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 A Dak vs Herbert debate championed by Matts & Bearerofnews ... That's a nightmare 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 So Herbert played Dak-like as a rookie but had a Wentz-like rookie record. I'd say his 2020 team was more like the 2016 Eagles without Lane Johnson instead of like the 2016 Cowboys I think Chargers fans hope his next 4 years are better than what either of those guys have done so far after their rookie years. The Super Bowl setup was great, but the playoffs is the hard part The playoff win was great, but 1 playoff win until 2024 is not the goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, MagicMT said: A Dak vs Herbert debate championed by Matts & Bearerofnews ... That's a nightmare I took down FF.com and their ridiculous fascination with Wentz. I took down Rams fans. I think I can take down an oregon homer. 55 minutes ago, SkippyX said: So Herbert played Dak-like as a rookie but had a Wentz-like rookie record. I'd say his 2020 team was more like the 2016 Eagles without Lane Johnson instead of like the 2016 Cowboys I think Chargers fans hope his next 4 years are better than what either of those guys have done so far after their rookie years. The Super Bowl setup was great, but the playoffs is the hard part The playoff win was great, but 1 playoff win until 2024 is not the goal. You always argue wins are a QB stat. Dak took a 4 win team and went +9 in the win column. The offensive rankings by points improved from 31st to #5. By yards #22 to 5. Herbert took a 5 win team and went +2 in the win column. The offense rankings by points (around 20) and yards (around 10) virtually unchanged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iknowcool Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 For me, Dak Prescott is one of the hardest players to judge. Yeah, his numbers are very good. Production-wise, I can’t argue he gets it done. But when I watch him play... I don’t know. It never matches up. He looks good, but he never really looks great to me. Not consistently anyway. With that said I really could see him taking that next step barring a set-back from the injury. He’s still only 27 years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKnight82 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Dak sucks tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 1:30 AM, iknowcool said: For me, Dak Prescott is one of the hardest players to judge. Yeah, his numbers are very good. Production-wise, I can’t argue he gets it done. But when I watch him play... I don’t know. It never matches up. He looks good, but he never really looks great to me. Not consistently anyway. With that said I really could see him taking that next step barring a set-back from the injury. He’s still only 27 years You might be biased? The guy makes a lot of splash plays. A lot of scramble throws. A lot of deep passed (very highly rated in 2019, looked even better in 2020). Makes some really crazy tight window throws. And with all that, at the end of the day, all the stats back up that he is awesome. Statistically, he is in or very close to the top 5. I dont really know what "next step" is. Because I dont ever seem him being Mahomes/Rodgers/Manning. 1 hour ago, MKnight82 said: Dak sucks tho I hope Tyler/Taylor whatever his name is goes back to college because he hates Snyder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 He's going to be a niner. It is known. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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