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Patrick Mahomes is keeping Tom Brady in the NFL.


RamblinMan99

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12 hours ago, NeptunePenguins said:

Mahomes without his arm is an average QB basically. Mahomes is the next Matthew Stafford after this year. He isn't an elite QB and he will not make the Hall of Fame if he loses this Superbowl and he WILL. 

um... The idea that Mahomes isn't a good QB because he has a strong arm is just... well... ill-informed.

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2 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

TB is 10th in run DVOA.

And if theres a more decorated receiving core, feel free to name it. Mike Evans has 7 straight 1000 yd receiving seasons, 3x PB, in his prime, top 10 WR in the NFL. Chris Godwin is at worst a top 15 WR and arguably a top 10 WR in the NFL when healthy, which he struggled with throughout the year. Antonio Brown is a HOF WR with what 4 1st team All Pros; last time he played a full season he was a Pro Bowler and probably should’ve been AP 2nd team above Keenan Allen (but I digress), who hasn’t shown signs of truly slowing down. Outside of being a head case and being forced to sit out most of the last two seasons, on the field he’s a top 5-10 WR in the NFL. Add in depth options like Scott Miller, Tyler Johnson, and Justin Watson and the unit isn’t lacking for overall talent nor depth.

Then once you throw in a TE group that consists of Gronkowski (top 10 TE) and Cameron Brate (top 20ish TE), as well as a good receiving RB. 

Who are some of the top units ever assembled? Greatest show on turf with Holt, Bruce, Faulk, Proehl, Conwell? 98 Vikings with Moss, Carter, Glover, Reed, Smith, Hatchette? 07 Patriots with Moss, Welker, Stallworth, Watson? 04 Colts with Harrison, Wayne, James, Stokley, Clark, Pollard? 13 Broncos with Thomas, Thomas, Decker, Welker, Moreno, Caldwell, Tamme? 18 or 20 Chiefs with Hill, Kelce, Watkins, Robinson, Hunt/CEH, and/or Hardman? 2012 Falcons with White, Julio, Gonzalez, Rodgers, Douglas, Snell? 2011 Packers with Jennings, Nelson, Finley, Jones, Driver, Cobb, Grant, Starks?

None of those units above are as decorated nor has as much overall talent from top to bottom. The 98 Vikings is a little before my football viewing time, so I can’t attest to that unit completely, but of all the other units the closest in overall talent/depth might be the 2013 Broncos or the 2011 Packers; that Packers unit had produced 11 1000 yard seasons through their careers to that point when assembled, this current TB unit has produced 18 such seasons with guys still operating at a high level of play. They beat the GB unit in depth of stacked talent and in regards to the top trio and peak talent.

Really not seeing what’s so funny about this unit’s credentials as being the greatest receiving core ever assembled. It was already a unit that contributed to a 5000 yd passing season, they then added Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski to the mix. But again, if there’s a better unit, let alone even 5 better units in the history of the NFL- name them and explain what makes them better.

Decorated means nothing. What Brown did in Pittsburgh or Gronk did in NE has zero to do with the type of players they are now. I'll use PFF as a quick reference. TB doesn't have a WR in the top 14, or any rated above a 82.8. Their top three rank 15, 28, and 39. Three teams have 2 WR's ranked before TB has one. At TE their two rank 22 and 23. This is not even to say they have bad receivers - they don't at all, they have good ones. But to call them the best receiving corps in history is preposterous. Minnesota's is better right now. Just off the top of my head, Indy '04 was better, NE '07, Minnesota '98, Arizona '08 - all better. Tampa barely had a WR crack 1000 this year - Arizona '08 had three.

All of this is still beside the point. My initial point was in reply to the thread in that it's dumb to think that Brady is still playing solely because of Mahomes. Why wouldn't he play? He's still awesome, clearly enjoys doing it, and this year is already a success whether or not they can beat KC.

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5 hours ago, RamblinMan99 said:

Three of those QBs you said looked “done” took their teams to the postseason this year.  
 

They are far from being done.  Rivers (if not newly retired), Brees, and Ben could all still play well into their 40s if they wanted to.

 

They just aren’t looking for something to prove like Brady is (you know, at 43 years old!)

So they’re younger and look worse than Brady. Brees is gonna retire rivers retired and the Steelers fans want Ben to hang it up

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On 1/31/2021 at 1:12 PM, ChazStandard said:

Second, all the other nonsense: It has literally never been harder to maintain success at a high level in the NFL than it is today. The older dynasties didn't even have FA to consider, but still there were only a handful of teams that managed truly prolonged success.

You aren't close. I've followed since the late '60s. It is incredibly easy to dominate these days, compared to eras like that. Contrast is long gone. Given the rules changes and application of them it is one pantyhose passing team after another. Consequently teams with dominant quarterbacks can play a mediocre flawed game and still get to 30 points late and dispatch the opponent across from them. In prior eras you couldn't get to the required number or overcome deficits because the blue collar contrast teams were too busy battering your quarterback and wide receivers. Those players would get so beat up they'd be out or limping around for weeks. That was particularly true given 5 teams in every division and 8 divisional games among 14, instead of current format of only 6 division games among 16. When you were playing more than half the games within the division those were incredibly intense physical battles. Even if two divisional rivals were having down seasons they relished the opportunity to batter and diminish the glory teams in the division.

Nowadays teams win 13 games and they aren't particularly special at all. That was impossible decades ago. It required dominant numbers in one category after after on both sides of the ball. Now you can have a special quarterback and overcome everything. The tipoff is the stat I have followed for decades, the Bud Goode Killer Stat of Yards Per Pass Attempt Differential. There used to be teams with +3.0 or higher. That's why Goode's site still uses this summary: "At the end of the season the strongest team will earn 2 to 2.5 yards per pass more on offense than their defense allows. Any team near +3 yards per toss will earn a Super Bowl invite."

But notice the link below, the numbers from 2020. Nobody was above +1.6. That would have been unheard of in prior decades. Every year you have multiple teams at +2.0 or higher. The Chiefs went 14-2 with a pedestrian +1.0. In prior decades a number like that would have been good for 10-6 or maybe 11-5 if everything broke your way. But these days when only one position matters it's a sad pathetic league where it's easy to screw around with utter confidence that your elite quarterback will bail you out at the end:

http://mule.he.net/~budsport/pub/killer.php

Edited by Awsi Dooger
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1 hour ago, WideRight said:

Decorated means nothing. What Brown did in Pittsburgh or Gronk did in NE has zero to do with the type of players they are now. I'll use PFF as a quick reference. TB doesn't have a WR in the top 14, or any rated above a 82.8. Their top three rank 15, 28, and 39. Three teams have 2 WR's ranked before TB has one. At TE their two rank 22 and 23. This is not even to say they have bad receivers - they don't at all, they have good ones. But to call them the best receiving corps in history is preposterous. Minnesota's is better right now. Just off the top of my head, Indy '04 was better, NE '07, Minnesota '98, Arizona '08 - all better. Tampa barely had a WR crack 1000 this year - Arizona '08 had three.

All of this is still beside the point. My initial point was in reply to the thread in that it's dumb to think that Brady is still playing solely because of Mahomes. Why wouldn't he play? He's still awesome, clearly enjoys doing it, and this year is already a success whether or not they can beat KC.

Footballs Outsiders in DYAR has Mike Evans at #4, Godwin at #11, Brown at #31, Miller at #33. DVOA has Godwin at 4, Evans at 6, Miller at 17, and Brown at 21... this considering Brown wasn’t the same player he is now within his first couple games... or rather, him and Brady weren’t on the same page as they are now. If that wasn’t a thing, I’m sure Brown would be even higher up both lists. Then their TE’s are both rated #13 and #15 respectively.

DVOA and DYAR might not be the end all be all either, but it’s certainly a part of the picture. That’s 6 weapons that regardless of how you want to slice it are AT WORST top half in the league, at worst. At best you’re talking three WRs that have some type of claim to being a top 5-15 WR in the NFL in terms of on field talent, I add the qualifier because of course when you have 6 guys with that level of ability all featured within the same offense there’s going to be some definite level of the law of diminishing returns taking effect at some point.

In terms of “barely having a WR crack 1000” They also didn’t have all of them healthy and/or on the roster the entire time. Brady didn’t have an offseason with them to work with them and himself looked VERY out of sorts through spurts within this season. Which is why I said if this core had a young GOAT level QB guided by a good offensive mind, this is the kind of core that gets you an All Time season. Marvin Harrison was the same age as Antonio Brown was this season when Manning had his ridiculous 2004 season. Evans is a known quantity and Godwin is a known quantity that consistently grades out as a top option when healthy. Those teams you list are not a better collection of talent, they just had superior seasons. I also listed those same units. We saw this same unit with a non-GOAT QB put up 1200+ yds a piece just last season. We’ve seen AB display projected averages of 1000 yds receiving and 8 TDs in the last 9 games he’s played between 2019 and 2020 in two different foreign offensive systems that he’s had to adjust to mid season. We’ve seen him take off more and more with TB with the more he picks up that offense and builds rapport with Brady.
——

I got your initial point, which is why I said in my OP that I get your point. I only pushed back in one area. The rest I had little enough issue with. But hey, the TB receiving core is a hill I refuse to be moved from; not that the Ravens would likely maximize their ability and all, but I’d love it if they were able to swap WR cores with TB and their simply ‘good WR core’.  But it is what is is, I suppose we can just agree to disagree on this.

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The one thing most people are missing is how long Tereek Hill can play at the level he's playing. That is a major key to KC success. He makes PM job so much easier. He is the one weapon that has drastically changed the playing field in KC favor. 

He makes that offense run, the other receivers have a big advantage with him out there.  I'm not in the least putting Travis Kelce down but do your really think he would have the success he is having without TH.  Other teams can't (double team) game plan against him, they are to wrapped up with Hill and they should be if they have any chance.

In my 50+ year I have never seen a player like him and he's one of the greatest game changer in the history of the NFL. Simply amazing.

PS If I'm KC I would do everything possible to get Rondale Moore. Pair him with Hill and hope he can take over down the road.

 

Edited by m haynes
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On 1/31/2021 at 6:55 AM, Nick_gb said:

First off LMAO

Okay, now that we got THAT out of the way. Tom Brady is staying in the NFL because it’s what he loves. It’s not because of hypothetical career projections for Mahomes. That’s just nonsense. 
 

Everyone thought Aaron Rodgers was going to have multiple SB wins in his career and yet here we are a decade later still trying to get to his 2nd one. Enough with the ramblin

Tom Brady has also been very lucky to have been limited in injuries....No one can say with certainty that Mahomes will be as fortunate....

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1 hour ago, m haynes said:

The one thing most people are missing is how long Tereek Hill can play at the level he's playing. That is a major key to KC success. He makes PM job so much easier. He is the one weapon that has drastically changed the playing field in KC favor. 

He makes that offense run, the other receivers have a big advantage with him out there.  I'm not in the least putting Travis Kelce down but do your really think he would have the success he is having without TH.  Other teams can't (double team) game plan against him, they are to wrapped up with Hill and they should be if they have any chance.

In my 50+ year I have never seen a player like him and he's one of the greatest game changer in the history of the NFL. Simply amazing.

PS If I'm KC I would do everything possible to get Rondale Moore. Pair him with Hill and hope he can take over down the road.

 

I think DeSean Jackson is a similar talent with 2 big drawbacks

  • DJ can't stay healthy.
  • DJ for whatever reason disappears for 2-5 games a year when he is playing.

DJ has 25 TDs of 60+ yards.

In a lot of those plays he slows down at the end to taunt the other players because he is just too fast.

 

FYI, its not just DJ who can't stay healthy. Lots of speed receivers have this problem. (paging Sammy Watkins!)

Sprinters get hurt all the time too.

Edited by SkippyX
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I think Brady will stay through at least 2023. The Bucs have a home game with Jacksonville that year, and he knows that Trevor Lawrence is one of the most highly-touted QB prospects ever, being projected to JAX at #1. Brady wants a chance to have a QB duel with him, potentially in primetime. So yeah, Brady doesn't want to retire until he plays against Lawrence.

Edited by pf9
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15 hours ago, pf9 said:

I think Brady will stay through at least 2023. The Bucs have a home game with Jacksonville that year, and he knows that Trevor Lawrence is one of the most highly-touted QB prospects ever, being projected to JAX at #1. Brady wants a chance to have a QB duel with him, potentially in primetime. So yeah, Brady doesn't want to retire until he plays against Lawrence.

Ah, one of those good old "regional interconference rivalry games." 

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