What would the extreme circumstances have to be for a 14+ Super Bowl Spread in today's game?

[Bolts223]

If you noticed in the last 12+ years the Super Bowl Point Spreads has never been anything extreme.

Since 2009 the largest point spread for a Super Bowl was Panthers being 5-point favorites over the Broncos.

But before then it wasn't totally unusual to have large spreads of 14+

 

94: 49ers were 19-point favorites over the Chargers

95: Cowboys were 14-point favorites over the Steelers

96: Packers were 14-point favorites over the Patriots

01: Rams were 14-point favorites over the Patriots

 

 

What would the extreme circumstances have to be in today's game for there to be a 19-point spread? Or even a 14-point spread?

 

Like lets say hypothetically the Bears or Washington had gotten on a roll and somehow managed to get to the Super Bowl to face the Chiefs. Would the spread in that game be 14-points? Probably not. I'd imagine that the Bears or Washington would have impressed enough in the playoffs to get to the SB to warrant it being in the ballpark of 8-10 points.

 

I think it would something seriously extreme or unlikely. Complete juggernaut of a team that dominates all season and blows out every team on it's way to the Super Bowl vs some 8-8 #4 seed that lucked its way into getting 3 Home-playoff games against 3 teams with 8-10 wins.

 

 

[scottishpatriot]

Well in this season, if Covid struck one of the teams, leaving a number of key players out, then that could lead to the spread escalating.

 

In any other year, maybe the star QB for one of the Conference Champions goes down injured in the 4th quarter while his team has the lead. He led the offence to the brink of the 'ship but can't make it to the big game. His backup isn't very good or the offence relied on the star's mobility a lot. 

[BigTrav]

Yeah can only think of the star QB going down. Maybe like if Ravens got the Superbowl vs Packers and then Lamar got injured before the game, and it's RG3/Huntley vs Packers? Even then I dunno if 14 point line

[CP3MVP]

There were people saying the Point spread for SB 42 was too low at 12

Edited February 2, 2021 by CP3MVP

[Broncofan]

With the salary cap era, and every team well versed in its nuances, it's hard to see a 14 pt spread in a SB barring catastrophic injury leading up to it. 

Keep in mind that a 14 pt spread corresponds to an 85 percent chance of winning.   Whereas a 3 pt spread implies a 60 percent chance of winning (likely less, when you factor the vig books are keeping).   In this salary cap era, and the weeding out of flawed teams that the playoffs usually achieves, it's hard to see a 10 pt spread.   

94-96 there was such an imbalance in conference strength, IMO because the dynasties created pre-cap were still able to be maintained (the cap started in 1994).   It's no coincidence that the biggest double-digit spreads since then all pushed (GB-NE '97 push) or lost.

Vegas certainly learned this lesson with LAR-NE, NE-NYG, and GB-DEN.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Broncofan

[Daniel]

All it would take is an injury.  I mean, either Brady or Mahomes goes down and you would have to think the spread would change drastically.

Double that if say, like in the AFC Championship game, Mahomes goes down, the Bills win, and then Allen goes down.  Then I think you'd definitely see a really high spread.

[Matts4313]

Take an awesome team like the '07 Pats or '16 and put them up against a goofy looking QB from a team that shouldnt even be in the 'bowl. 

[Broncofan]

30 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Take an awesome team like the '07 Pats or '16 and put them up against a goofy looking QB from a team that shouldnt even be in the 'bowl. 

The last time that happened was Case Keenum / Nick Foles for the NFCG.   And the spread still wasn't even 7, let alone 14 pts.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Broncofan

[BullsandBroncos]

I think the Packers were 14 pt favorites against Denver as well in 1997

[Matts4313]

19 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The last time that happened was Case Keenum / Nick Foles for the NFCG.   And the spread still wasn't even 7, let alone 14 pts.

It was a joke... You need to lighten up my dude. This is the ~3rd time youve taken a silly post literally in the past week. 

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

It was a joke... You need to lighten up my dude. This is the ~3rd time youve taken a silly post literally in the past week. 

The internet needs a sarcasm icon - but yeah, that one I should have picked up on lol (the other thread was filled with such extreme takes, it was hard to separate)...

Edited February 2, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

12 minutes ago, BullsandBroncos said:

I think the Packers were 14 pt favorites against Denver as well in 1997

11.5 - easy money.....

[Apparition]

1 hour ago, Matts4313 said:

Take an awesome team like the '07 Pats or '16 and put them up against a goofy looking QB from a team that shouldnt even be in the 'bowl. 

you mean like Eli Manning?

 

[Matts4313]

2 minutes ago, Starless said:

you mean like Eli Manning?

 

It applies to both Nick Foles and Eli Manning. I didnt think the joke was that layered. 

[Tk3]

If Football Team, Bears, or probably even the Rams somehow made their way to the SB they would be +14 against the Chiefs

If Tom Brady gets covid today I'm sure they will be +14 (and even worse if more players contract it)