What would the extreme circumstances have to be for a 14+ Super Bowl Spread in today's game?

[Awsi Dooger]

There will be a high poinstpread when there's a dominant Super Bowl favorite with a massive power rating. Kansas City has won a very high percentage of games but has never owned a huge power rating, for the reasons I detailed the other day -- including the marginal YPPA Differential -- since this era enables moderately strong teams to monopolize victories as long as they have an ultra elite quarterback.

Many posters in this thread were looking at the wrong end...the weakness of the underdog. Very high pointspreads are courtesy of the strength of the power favorite. That's why teams like the 1968 Colts and 1969 Vikings and 2007 Patriots were big favorites despite the underdog hardly considered a doormat. 

If you check the well known power ratings like Jeff Sagarin and see an NFL team well into the mid 30s, that team has opportunity to be a huge Super Bowl favorite. I believe the 2007 Patriots were 36 or 37 on Sagarin. That's well above current Kansas City level in the 28 range.

[Bolts223]

7 minutes ago, Awsi Dooger said:

There will be a high poinstpread when there's a dominant Super Bowl favorite with a massive power rating. Kansas City has won a very high percentage of games but has never owned a huge power rating, for the reasons I detailed the other day -- including the marginal YPPA Differential -- since this era enables moderately strong teams to monopolize victories as long as they have an ultra elite quarterback.

Many posters in this thread were looking at the wrong end...the weakness of the underdog. Very high pointspreads are courtesy of the strength of the power favorite. That's why teams like the 1968 Colts and 1969 Vikings and 2007 Patriots were big favorites despite the underdog hardly considered a doormat. 

If you check the well known power ratings like Jeff Sagarin and see an NFL team well into the mid 30s, that team has opportunity to be a huge Super Bowl favorite. I believe the 2007 Patriots were 36 or 37 on Sagarin. That's well above current Kansas City level in the 28 range.

I think that the underdog in all 3 of these cases WAS considered a doormat.

1968: Nobody thought that any AFL team could win against any NFL team.

1969: A lot of people thought SB 3 was a fluke.

2007: Giants were a 10-6 wild card team that nobody predicted to even make the Super Bowl, let alone win it.

Obviously the Colts/Vikings/Patriots were all considered to be huge powerhouses as well.

But it was that in combination with them playing teams that were considered weak by SB standards.

[SkippyX]

41 minutes ago, Awsi Dooger said:

There will be a high poinstpread when there's a dominant Super Bowl favorite with a massive power rating. Kansas City has won a very high percentage of games but has never owned a huge power rating, for the reasons I detailed the other day -- including the marginal YPPA Differential -- since this era enables moderately strong teams to monopolize victories as long as they have an ultra elite quarterback.

Many posters in this thread were looking at the wrong end...the weakness of the underdog. Very high pointspreads are courtesy of the strength of the power favorite. That's why teams like the 1968 Colts and 1969 Vikings and 2007 Patriots were big favorites despite the underdog hardly considered a doormat. 

If you check the well known power ratings like Jeff Sagarin and see an NFL team well into the mid 30s, that team has opportunity to be a huge Super Bowl favorite. I believe the 2007 Patriots were 36 or 37 on Sagarin. That's well above current Kansas City level in the 28 range.

I'm not denying your insider knowledge but I do have a question.

Why do lines move away from the money?