2021 Raider Depth Chart

[NYRaider]

28 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

I'm working with the assumption he would have inevitably asked for/tried to force his release, so I'm only giving an opinion. I think the chances of him staying with the Jets as a backup for 2021 were slim to none at the end of the day. 

Wentz flamed out and I think the Colts got suckered personally. Though, unlike Rhule, Reich has a bit of a history with Wentz, so I can see them gunning for him. As for Rosen, that whole bit was just wild and I don't think indicative of a norm. 

But like I said, for Darnold believers, it's a potential steal. For those who don't believe in Darnold, it's a steep price. I get both camps. I wouldn't have given up that much for him no matter what, because I think Bridgewater is a better QB and would've banked on hin in year 2 while maybe angling to draft a guy. I say this because I think Darnold is a finished product who is who he is. I don't look at him and see upside and never did in the first place. On the flip side, there are people who think he just got a raw deal with the Jets and has untapped potential still remaining. Based on what, I do not know because I never saw it to begin with. But some do. And for them, they have a chance at saying "I told you so" if he pans out. 

Not everyone has to be happy with the trade or applaud it just because he was a former 1st round pick or some people are enamored with him. For those who think he's a great reclamation project, more power to you. For those who think he's another Josh Rosen, I can understand the groaning. That's what happens in a world where nothing is certain until it is. 

There's almost zero chance the Jets were going to release him. If they wouldn't have traded him they would've kept him and let him and Wilson battle for the starting job. If Wilson would've won the job then they would've had a cheap back up behind him ($4M cap hit) that they could've then traded during the season if another teams starter got hurt. 

The Colts gave up 2021 3rd round pick and a conditional 2022 2nd round pick, which will likely be a 1st round pick if Wentz starts. And Wentz is 6 years older and has a much larger cap hit going forward if they decide to keep him, not to mention he has been often injured throughout his career. 

The 49ers gave up a 2nd round pick for Jimmy Garoppolo and he only had 2 starts in 3 seasons with the Patriots. The Raiders traded a 1st and a 2nd round pick for Carson Palmer who was sitting on his couch at home at the time. The Broncos traded up 2 1st round picks and Kyle Orton for Jay Cutler. The Rams just traded Goff and two 1st round picks for Stafford while the 49ers just gave up 3 1st round picks for the third best QB in the draft. 

How often do teams find good starting quarterbacks in the 2nd round of the draft? And it's not even a 2nd round pick this year, it's a 2022 pick. I've personally never been a huge Bridgewater fan and it's pretty clear that he held their offense back last season. In his 7 year career he has had two seasons where he looked okay, his second year when he had a top 5 defense and Adrian Peterson and in spot duty with the Saints. When the Vikings made the playoffs with him he only had 3,200 yards and 14 TD. And when he had success filling in for Brees he had one of the best offenses in the league around him. 

Not sure how you can call Darnold a finished product when he's only 23 years old and was in a horrible situation with the Jets. Gase has proven to be a pretty terrible coach and they had one of the worst running games in the league last year led by 37 year old Frank Gore and his #1 WR was Jamison Crowder. 

Not sure how you can compare him to Rosen either, who was a practice squad player last year. In 20 career games Rosen has completed 54% of his passes and has 12 TD/19 INT. In 38 career games Darnold has completed 60% of his passes and has 45 TD/39 INT. 

In 2019 during the second half of the season when Darnold was healthy he passed for 2,000 yards, 13 TD, and 5 INT while the Jets went 6-2 during that stretch. It's a low risk/high reward situation for the Panthers. If it pans out they get a starting QB without giving up significant draft capital and if he plays poorly this year then they can always draft a QB next year and move on from Darnold in 2022. 

[ronjon1990]

5 hours ago, NYRaider said:

There's almost zero chance the Jets were going to release him. If they wouldn't have traded him they would've kept him and let him and Wilson battle for the starting job. If Wilson would've won the job then they would've had a cheap back up behind him ($4M cap hit) that they could've then traded during the season if another teams starter got hurt. 

The Colts gave up 2021 3rd round pick and a conditional 2022 2nd round pick, which will likely be a 1st round pick if Wentz starts. And Wentz is 6 years older and has a much larger cap hit going forward if they decide to keep him, not to mention he has been often injured throughout his career. 

The 49ers gave up a 2nd round pick for Jimmy Garoppolo and he only had 2 starts in 3 seasons with the Patriots. The Raiders traded a 1st and a 2nd round pick for Carson Palmer who was sitting on his couch at home at the time. The Broncos traded up 2 1st round picks and Kyle Orton for Jay Cutler. The Rams just traded Goff and two 1st round picks for Stafford while the 49ers just gave up 3 1st round picks for the third best QB in the draft. 

How often do teams find good starting quarterbacks in the 2nd round of the draft? And it's not even a 2nd round pick this year, it's a 2022 pick. I've personally never been a huge Bridgewater fan and it's pretty clear that he held their offense back last season. In his 7 year career he has had two seasons where he looked okay, his second year when he had a top 5 defense and Adrian Peterson and in spot duty with the Saints. When the Vikings made the playoffs with him he only had 3,200 yards and 14 TD. And when he had success filling in for Brees he had one of the best offenses in the league around him. 

Not sure how you can call Darnold a finished product when he's only 23 years old and was in a horrible situation with the Jets. Gase has proven to be a pretty terrible coach and they had one of the worst running games in the league last year led by 37 year old Frank Gore and his #1 WR was Jamison Crowder. 

Not sure how you can compare him to Rosen either, who was a practice squad player last year. In 20 career games Rosen has completed 54% of his passes and has 12 TD/19 INT. In 38 career games Darnold has completed 60% of his passes and has 45 TD/39 INT. 

In 2019 during the second half of the season when Darnold was healthy he passed for 2,000 yards, 13 TD, and 5 INT while the Jets went 6-2 during that stretch. It's a low risk/high reward situation for the Panthers. If it pans out they get a starting QB without giving up significant draft capital and if he plays poorly this year then they can always draft a QB next year and move on from Darnold in 2022. 

1. Conjecture. But fine. So they don't release him. Your premise relies on the idea that everyone wanted the guy, and mine relies on him not having much a of a market. I don't care if they wouldn't released him or not BECAUSE I WOULDN'T HAVE WANTED HIM AT ALL. I'd rather drag Ryan Lindley out of retirement than waste a roster spot on Sam Darnold.

2.  And none of those wound up being good trades, so you've pretty much made my point. Again, your assuming that everyone wanted him, and that's just not remotely provable. 

3. You're basing this bit on Darnold being a good starting QB, when he hasn't been. I don't think the Panthers got a good starting QB with the 2022 2nd round pick. I think they used that pick on someone who won't pan out and will wish they had it back to address another position. 

4. Easy, because he never impressed me in the first place. How many different ways can I possibly explain that not every single person on the planet was enamored with him? He could've been coached up by the ghost of Bill Walsh for all I care, I never thought he was a good QB. All I've seen is a bust, and he wouldn't be the first guy to peak in college. I never saw much progress from him at USC, I never thought I'd see much in the NFL, and that so far has rung true. Not every player just gets the benefit of the doubt by default. 

5. Easy, both are 1st round busts. I'd argue Rosen had an even worse situation and wasn't helped at all. Darnold has had more play time, so I expect his bad stats to have more volume. But none of that is relevant because I'm not comparing them any further than both being busts. I could say he's another Todd Marinovich, but I don't think henhas a coke problem if you want to be super pedantic though? 

6. You're still missing the point, so let's try this again. IF. IF. IF. 

IF you think Darnold is worth a damn, you can hail the move as low risk/high reward. 

IF you think he's garbage and your mind is made up on him, it's not a low risk/high reward move, it's just a dumb move by a newbie HC potentially fighting for his job using someone else's sloppy seconds. 

Not. Everyone. Thinks. Darnold. Is. Good. At. All. And. If. You. Don't. You. Are. Not. Going. To. Be. A. Fan. Of. The. Move. Until. You. Are. Unquestionably. Proven. Otherwise. 

Are you so set in your own perception of things that honestly can't grasp that if a Panthers fan hates Darnold with a passion, they don't have to feel optimistic about the move because Darnold hasn't given them a reason to? I get it, YOU like him and think it was a good move, particularly IF it works. Not everyone shares your opinion, and thinks they just gave away a reasonbly high pick for a hopeless reclamation project. 

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, ronjon1990 said:

IF you think Darnold is worth a damn, you can hail the move as low risk/high reward. 

Are you so set in your own perception of things that honestly can't grasp that if a Panthers fan hates Darnold with a passion, they don't have to feel optimistic about the move because Darnold hasn't given them a reason to? I get it, YOU like him and think it was a good move, particularly IF it works. Not everyone shares your opinion, and thinks they just gave away a reasonbly high pick for a hopeless reclamation project. 

Even if he's terrible it's still a low risk/high reward situation. They gave up a future 2nd round pick and if Darnold doesn't play well they're only committed to him for the next two seasons so there's nothing stopping them from drafting a QB next year while Darnold provides depth/competition. If he plays well then they just acquired a starting QB for a 2nd round pick. The Panthers leadership clearly doesn't have faith in Teddy Bridgewater and knew that they weren't going to be able to move up high enough to get their guy at QB in the draft this year. 

The reasons I feel optimistic about the move: 

• During the second half of the 2019 season with limited talent around him he passed for 2,000 yards, 13 TD, 5 INT and the Jets went 6-2 during that stretch. 

• I personally believe that a lot of his struggles were directly tied to Gase being a terrible coach and the Jets doing a poor job of building around him. 

• Ryan Tannehill wasn't very good with Gase under similar circumstances and then blossomed when he was traded into a better situation with more talent around him and a good young offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith. 

• Darnold is going into a similar situation in Carolina where he'll have weapons in the passing game (Moore/Anderson), one of the most dynamic playmakers in the league at RB in McCaffery and a bright young offensive coordinator in Joe Brady. 

Draft capital is often overvalued because the draft is a complete and total crap shoot. I'm not saying Darnold is going to set the league on fire but he'll be in a much better situation in Carolina then he was in New York. If he plays well this year then they've addressed their need for a starting quarterback. If he doesn't then they can always look to address the position again in the draft next year. I wouldn't call him a hopeless reclamation project, he's 23 years old and a former top 3 pick. 

Edited April 10, 2021 by NYRaider

[NYRaider]

I'm also interested/excited to see how Zach Wilson plays with a less than stellar supporting cast around him in NY. 

[ronjon1990]

13 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I'm also interested/excited to see how Zach Wilson plays with a less than stellar supporting cast around him in NY. 

My guess is poorly. I'm not a fan of his to begin with. 

He's an athletic profile with very little substance despite playing lower tier competition. 

2018, he was statistically pretty good, but BYU had a garbage schedule. 

2019, he was actually pretty underwhelming. 

2020, he caught some fire and hype while BYU was hot, but the overall competition was meh. The one game I saw them play against even respectable competition, he looked painfully average. Coastal Carolina exposed him a bit. I won't say he's "bad", but once playing a good team, he didn't pop out to me as that "1st round talent stuck on a mediocre team" the way other guys in the past have.

Mahomes, Goff, Allen, etc. Some guys are hamstrung by the teams they played on, but you can look and say "Oh man...someone (a big school) missed out on an absolute stud!". I've never felt that way with Wilson. I never got excited about his play nor did I find myself watching for HIM and anticipating the prospect of him absolutely taking over a game.

I'm so glad we aren't in the market for a QB this year. I'm not in love with any of them. Feels very 2011-ish to me. We've got the game altering superstar no one shall question without punishment, the gutsy guy you wish you'd seen more from overall, the smaller program athletic stud who got hot once and bailed for the NFL, and the guy who is all around just OK but almost neutral as a prospect who will likely be a 1st round career backup. 

Cam was ok. But he'll never really justify his #1 overall selection. Locker showed some very brief flashes here and there, but never overcame his flaws. Gabbert had a few shots but his ceiling is a backup. And Ponder had his bit of inspiring play before it became apparent that he just wasn't a star. 

Imo the roles are:

Newton-Lawrence

Locker-Fields

Gabbert-Jones

Ponder-Wilson

[Bitty 2.0]

20 hours ago, NYRaider said:

There's almost zero chance the Jets were going to release him. If they wouldn't have traded him they would've kept him and let him and Wilson battle for the starting job. If Wilson would've won the job then they would've had a cheap back up behind him ($4M cap hit) that they could've then traded during the season if another teams starter got hurt. 

The Colts gave up 2021 3rd round pick and a conditional 2022 2nd round pick, which will likely be a 1st round pick if Wentz starts. And Wentz is 6 years older and has a much larger cap hit going forward if they decide to keep him, not to mention he has been often injured throughout his career. 

The 49ers gave up a 2nd round pick for Jimmy Garoppolo and he only had 2 starts in 3 seasons with the Patriots. The Raiders traded a 1st and a 2nd round pick for Carson Palmer who was sitting on his couch at home at the time. The Broncos traded up 2 1st round picks and Kyle Orton for Jay Cutler. The Rams just traded Goff and two 1st round picks for Stafford while the 49ers just gave up 3 1st round picks for the third best QB in the draft. 

How often do teams find good starting quarterbacks in the 2nd round of the draft? And it's not even a 2nd round pick this year, it's a 2022 pick. I've personally never been a huge Bridgewater fan and it's pretty clear that he held their offense back last season. In his 7 year career he has had two seasons where he looked okay, his second year when he had a top 5 defense and Adrian Peterson and in spot duty with the Saints. When the Vikings made the playoffs with him he only had 3,200 yards and 14 TD. And when he had success filling in for Brees he had one of the best offenses in the league around him. 

Not sure how you can call Darnold a finished product when he's only 23 years old and was in a horrible situation with the Jets. Gase has proven to be a pretty terrible coach and they had one of the worst running games in the league last year led by 37 year old Frank Gore and his #1 WR was Jamison Crowder. 

Not sure how you can compare him to Rosen either, who was a practice squad player last year. In 20 career games Rosen has completed 54% of his passes and has 12 TD/19 INT. In 38 career games Darnold has completed 60% of his passes and has 45 TD/39 INT. 

In 2019 during the second half of the season when Darnold was healthy he passed for 2,000 yards, 13 TD, and 5 INT while the Jets went 6-2 during that stretch. It's a low risk/high reward situation for the Panthers. If it pans out they get a starting QB without giving up significant draft capital and if he plays poorly this year then they can always draft a QB next year and move on from Darnold in 2022. 

People compare Donald to other NFL QBs but being only 23 you have to compare to QBs his age. mostly college QBs.

[Jerry]

15 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

My guess is poorly. I'm not a fan of his to begin with. 

He's an athletic profile with very little substance despite playing lower tier competition. 

2018, he was statistically pretty good, but BYU had a garbage schedule. 

2019, he was actually pretty underwhelming. 

2020, he caught some fire and hype while BYU was hot, but the overall competition was meh. The one game I saw them play against even respectable competition, he looked painfully average. Coastal Carolina exposed him a bit. I won't say he's "bad", but once playing a good team, he didn't pop out to me as that "1st round talent stuck on a mediocre team" the way other guys in the past have.

Mahomes, Goff, Allen, etc. Some guys are hamstrung by the teams they played on, but you can look and say "Oh man...someone (a big school) missed out on an absolute stud!". I've never felt that way with Wilson. I never got excited about his play nor did I find myself watching for HIM and anticipating the prospect of him absolutely taking over a game.

I'm so glad we aren't in the market for a QB this year. I'm not in love with any of them. Feels very 2011-ish to me. We've got the game altering superstar no one shall question without punishment, the gutsy guy you wish you'd seen more from overall, the smaller program athletic stud who got hot once and bailed for the NFL, and the guy who is all around just OK but almost neutral as a prospect who will likely be a 1st round career backup. 

Cam was ok. But he'll never really justify his #1 overall selection. Locker showed some very brief flashes here and there, but never overcame his flaws. Gabbert had a few shots but his ceiling is a backup. And Ponder had his bit of inspiring play before it became apparent that he just wasn't a star. 

Imo the roles are:

Newton-Lawrence

Locker-Fields

Gabbert-Jones

Ponder-Wilson

Cam took his team to the SB.  He obviously isn't a great passer though.  The guy needs to be able to run in order for him to succeed and his body is obviously breaking down from all the rushing he did earlier in his career.  But overall I think he was an excellent pick for the Panthers.  He just didn't last as long as any team would've liked.  As for the comparison between Newton and Lawrence, I don't see that at all.  I think Lawrence is much more accurate with the ball overall.  I can't really think of anyone to compare him to though.  He's thin and lanky which a lot of QBs in the league just aren't.  He may need to bulk up so he isn't getting rag dolled by DL.

[NYRaider]

15 hours ago, Bitty 2.0 said:

People compare Donald to other NFL QBs but being only 23 you have to compare to QBs his age. mostly college QBs.

QB success/failure depends so much on the situation that a player comes into as well. When you look at the best quarterbacks that have came into the league recently, almost all of them have come into very good situations. 

Russell Wilson: Drafted by Seattle who had the best defense and running game in the NFL. 

Patrick Mahomes: Drafted by the Chiefs and was able to RS his rookie season behind a good veteran QB then start in year 2 for one of the best offensive coaches in the league on a team stacked with weapons. 

Dak Prescott: Drafted by the Cowboys who had the best running game in the league, a top 3 OL, and a top 10 defense. 

Lamar Jackson: Drafted by the Ravens, wasn't forced to start from day one, had a good OL, and an elite defense. 

Josh Allen: Drafted by the Bills who were patient with him and had an elite defense in year 2 and then did a great job of adding weapons around him. 

Justin Herbert: Drafted by the Chargers who had a ton of weapons in Allen, Williams, Henry, and Ekeler. 

[NYRaider]

55 minutes ago, Jerry said:

Cam took his team to the SB.  He obviously isn't a great passer though.  The guy needs to be able to run in order for him to succeed and his body is obviously breaking down from all the rushing he did earlier in his career.  But overall I think he was an excellent pick for the Panthers.  He just didn't last as long as any team would've liked.  As for the comparison between Newton and Lawrence, I don't see that at all.  I think Lawrence is much more accurate with the ball overall.  I can't really think of anyone to compare him to though.  He's thin and lanky which a lot of QBs in the league just aren't.  He may need to bulk up so he isn't getting rag dolled by DL.

Yeah I don't see a comparison between Cam Newton and Trevor Lawerence. Newton was super underdeveloped as a passer coming out of Auburn as a 1 year starter that only had 1 game of 20+ completions, he was more of a run first player. 

My NFL comps for the top QB's (ceilings): 

Trevor Lawerence: Andrew Luck

Justin Fields: Dak Prescott

Zach Wilson: Johnny Manziel (bigger arm and w/o character concerns)

Trey Lance: Cam Newton 

Mac Jones: Andy Dalton

 

 

[ronjon1990]

12 hours ago, Jerry said:

Cam took his team to the SB.  He obviously isn't a great passer though.  The guy needs to be able to run in order for him to succeed and his body is obviously breaking down from all the rushing he did earlier in his career.  But overall I think he was an excellent pick for the Panthers.  He just didn't last as long as any team would've liked.  As for the comparison between Newton and Lawrence, I don't see that at all.  I think Lawrence is much more accurate with the ball overall.  I can't really think of anyone to compare him to though.  He's thin and lanky which a lot of QBs in the league just aren't.  He may need to bulk up so he isn't getting rag dolled by DL.

It wasn't a player comp, just a situation comp. 

Leading up to the Draft, it was blasphemous to even remotely criticize Newton. I've seen a lot of the same hyperbole surrounding Lawrence. "Best eva!", "transformational", "sure thing", "best since (insert name)", "Gonna win 2 Superbowls!", etc. 

I shy away from those. It's why "Tank for Tua" was thrown around so loosely in this forum well over a year before he even declared. The only one of "those" prospects to pan out in ages was Luck, and his body of work, even discounting the injuries, was far from perfect. 

Edited April 12, 2021 by ronjon1990

[Jerry]

1 hour ago, ronjon1990 said:

It wasn't a player comp, just a situation comp. 

Leading up to the Draft, it was blasphemous to even remotely criticize Newton. I've seen a lot of the same hyperbole surrounding Lawrence. "Best eva!", "transformational", "sure thing", "best since (insert name)", "Gonna win 2 Superbowls!", etc. 

I shy away from those. It's why "Tank for Tua" was thrown around so loosely in this forum well over a year before he even declared. The only one of "those" prospects to pan out in ages was Luck, and his body of work, even discounting the injuries, was far from perfect. 

I don't trust Bama QBs.  And I don't think Lawrence is the best ever or anything personally.  I think he's going to be a good QB, but he isn't going to be on Wilson's, Watson's, Brady's, Rodgers' level.  He's a sure thing I'll agree with that, but I doubt he's going to win two SBs.

[Jerry]

12 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Yeah I don't see a comparison between Cam Newton and Trevor Lawerence. Newton was super underdeveloped as a passer coming out of Auburn as a 1 year starter that only had 1 game of 20+ completions, he was more of a run first player. 

My NFL comps for the top QB's (ceilings): 

Trevor Lawerence: Andrew Luck

Justin Fields: Dak Prescott

Zach Wilson: Johnny Manziel (bigger arm and w/o character concerns)

Trey Lance: Cam Newton 

Mac Jones: Andy Dalton

 

 

I don't think Lawrence will be able to bulldoze his way into a first down like Luck did.  I guess I just don't care to compare QBs because no two QBs are ever the same.  But yeah I agree with you, Newton and Lawrence just aren't the same.  I was going to say Luck or Josh Allen for Lawrence but he seriously needs to add weight so he isn't getting destroyed by DL.  He's pretty lean/thin.

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, Jerry said:

I don't think Lawrence will be able to bulldoze his way into a first down like Luck did.  I guess I just don't care to compare QBs because no two QBs are ever the same.  But yeah I agree with you, Newton and Lawrence just aren't the same.  I was going to say Luck or Josh Allen for Lawrence but he seriously needs to add weight so he isn't getting destroyed by DL.  He's pretty lean/thin.

Yeah it's difficult to make pro comps for quarterbacks. Not even in terms of playing style, I compared Lawerence to Luck as they were both guys who were viewed as consensus #1 players and generational prospects. Luck struggled with injuries but they had a winning season every year he was healthy, he was a 4x Pro Bowler, and at his peak he was throwing for 4,500 yards and 40 TD. 

[NYRaider]

3 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

I shy away from those. It's why "Tank for Tua" was thrown around so loosely in this forum well over a year before he even declared. The only one of "those" prospects to pan out in ages was Luck, and his body of work, even discounting the injuries, was far from perfect. 

The issue for most QB's selected #1/#2 is that they typically go to horrible teams/situations. 

[ronjon1990]

3 hours ago, NYRaider said:

The issue for most QB's selected #1/#2 is that they typically go to horrible teams/situations. 

There's some truth to that, but I maintain that they're increasingly hyped to laughable levels as if they're going to overcome their surroundings.

How many #1/#2 overall QBs go elsewhere and succeed? We can even just say first round QBs overall to account for the years they didn't go 1 and 2. 

Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden, Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, Manuel, Mariota, Winston, Goff, Wentz, Lynch, Trubisky, Darnold, Rosen, Haskins...these are the guys who have flopped on their 1st team, not counting possibilities like Tua or Jones yet. 

Aside from Tannehill, none found any real success on their second or subsequent teams, and he was actually probably the best of them with his first stop, though underwhelming. And Tennessee didn't pursue him as a starter to begin with.

Griffin was just bad as a starter and was ok at best as a backup  in an offense painfully tailored to his skillset. Weeden, Bortles, Manziel, Manuel, Lynch, and Haskins were/are borderline unwatchable. Hands down busts, that bunch. Bridgewater has bounced around a lot. Mariota is a backup who showed some slight promise but not enough for anyone to offer enough for his services apparently. Winston got lucky and wound up in New Orleans where his primary opposition is a Wildcat QB UDFA. Rosen, forgot about him, he's another that can't even stick on a roster. Trubisky is gonna be holding a clipboard as long as he's in Buffalo, and he's not particularly likely to get another crack at starting. Goff, Wentz, and Darnold are the 3 who we can say are TBD. Goff didn't get a ringing endorsement from Detroit, and he's by far the most successful of the 3. Wentz, people are hoping he and Reich can rekindle the magic that was barely there to begin with. Darnold...well...you either think he has potential or he sucks. Either way, the history of "rehabbing" QBs just isn't on the side of anyone pulling for it. 

But I digress, that's going into a different discussion. My main point is every time a QB is hailed as a franchise's "savior", it proves to be fools gold. You're right, it's very much impacted by bad circumstances. But it's also a matter of them being so overhyped ahead of time that it's practically a foregone conclusion that "he's gonna be the one who bucks the trend". Yet over and over thus far, we've seen them change circumstances only to continue not being very good.