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The 2021 NFL Draft...


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So, didn't think we'd have to have this because of the Tunsil trade... But it's absolutely on the table that the Texans will be back in the first round (maybe even in the top 5, maybe with two picks in the round).

So, who you looking at?

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2 hours ago, lumberjackchris said:

I would be greedy and say QB and WR, but the defense needs help in a bad way. If we can manage to snag WIlliams in a trade with the Jets, Id go with an edge rusher and a QB 

If I'm really entertaining this - I'm punting on QB this draft. One of these offers (Carolina, San Francisco, Denver, Miami, NYJ) will include a QB. Maybe not a good QB (I think Tua CAN be a good one) but not a disaster at QB (maybe Jimmy Garropolo).

Let them get a full season, with no QBOTF on the roster. See if the culture here is enough to get them to improve their game - they're not going to be Deshaun, but maybe they'll be good to earn the gig? And if they're not, you've got the ammo to get whatever QB you want next draft - Sam Howell, Spencer Rattler, Michael Penix Jr, Kendon Slovis. (Honestly, this team is picking 1.1 next season).

Use every pick however Lovie Smith wants. Build up a perfect Tampa 2. Let the defense usher in the next era of the Texans.

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The problem is that there isn’t really a top 5 defensive player in this draft. I would almost want to trade down if we ended up with the 3rd pick, maybe get some 2nds in a deal to go along with a 1st. On defense we could easily go BPA. 
 

 

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38 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

The problem is that there isn’t really a top 5 defensive player in this draft. I would almost want to trade down if we ended up with the 3rd pick, maybe get some 2nds in a deal to go along with a 1st. On defense we could easily go BPA. 
 

 

There are some who think Penn State LB Micah Parsons might be the best LB to declare since Khalil Mack...

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/micah-parsons-nfl-draft-player-profile-penn-state-linebacker/

He's capable of playing all three LB spots, with no real dropoff; You could put him in the middle and move Cunningham to SLB, or you can keep Cunningham in the middle and play Parsons at WLB or SLB.

A Lovie D needs a Derrick Brooks, and Parsons is probably a Brooks-esque player. I can't imagine him making it past Atlanta at #4.

If you're looking at secondary, Patrick Surtain II and Caleb Farley are two intriguing options that are near certain top 10 selections. Haven't really looked into either z but if Surtain is anything like his dad, he'll be a day one difference maker at CB.

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6 hours ago, ET80 said:

There are some who think Penn State LB Micah Parsons might be the best LB to declare since Khalil Mack...

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/micah-parsons-nfl-draft-player-profile-penn-state-linebacker/

He's capable of playing all three LB spots, with no real dropoff; You could put him in the middle and move Cunningham to SLB, or you can keep Cunningham in the middle and play Parsons at WLB or SLB.

A Lovie D needs a Derrick Brooks, and Parsons is probably a Brooks-esque player. I can't imagine him making it past Atlanta at #4.

If you're looking at secondary, Patrick Surtain II and Caleb Farley are two intriguing options that are near certain top 10 selections. Haven't really looked into either z but if Surtain is anything like his dad, he'll be a day one difference maker at CB.

Heard Parsons had some bullying issues... a player allegedly pulled a knife on him (after the bullying became too much).

Surtain II would be my choice. Lock down corner harder to find than versatile LB.

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I think the best deal for you guys would be if you traded with the Jets to grab Darnold. Start him at QB and trade that 2nd pick and move back a tiny bit an acquire even more picks. Still able to draft a guy like Smith of Chase perhaps around 4-7 (lets say). And with that trade back you'd get a very high 2nd rounder and more. Juts giving you more ammo for the rebuild. Giving you guys several picks in the top 40.

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24 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I think the best deal for you guys would be if you traded with the Jets to grab Darnold.

I'll be honest - Sam Darnold does nothing for me. Pretty much every scenario has a QB coming to the Texans (save for the Las Vegas hypothetical offer, which has the four FRPs and RB Josh Jacobs - which is the most enticing offer on the table by a significant margin).

Of those deals, this is how I'd rank those QBs:

1. Tua Tagovailoa

2. Teddy Bridgewater

3. Drew Lock

4. Sam Darnold/Jimmy Garropolo

5. Nick Foles

(I'm not even entertaining Derek Carr - trading Watson and bringing in a member of the Carr family would lead to actual riots at NRG. I'll be there with a stolen truck and a baseball bat, because I'd be angrier than I've ever been before).

Tua still has the rawness to develop into a 8-12 ranked QB and a potential long term answer - not as good as Watson of course, but not bad either. I don't see anyone else hitting that mark, everyone else on that list is a holdover for the guy in 2022/2023. Miami also offers the same amount of draft capital and the defensive stalwart in Xavian Howard (who I'd prefer over Quinnen Williams, to be honest).

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10 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I think the best deal for you guys would be if you traded with the Jets to grab Darnold. Start him at QB and trade that 2nd pick and move back a tiny bit an acquire even more picks. Still able to draft a guy like Smith of Chase perhaps around 4-7 (lets say). And with that trade back you'd get a very high 2nd rounder and more. Juts giving you more ammo for the rebuild. Giving you guys several picks in the top 40.

The jets are gonna have to give us two 1sts in 2021 and two 1sts in 2022. Plus Rumor has it that the jets are not on Watsons list of teams. 

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1 minute ago, Pastor Dillon said:

The jets are gonna have to give us two 1sts in 2021 and two 1sts in 2022. Plus Rumor has it that the jets are not on Watsons list of teams. 

There's lots of conflicting reports. We were his #1 team for awhile. Now the rumor is that he will accept a trade pretty much anywhere.

What we do know is that he LOVES our new HC. So I cant see him not liking us. So I think we are on his list of teams. But mainly he just wants out. So he doesn't want to give a list of a handful of teams to limit the trade partners.

What I will say is that our GM isn't a guy to hugely overpay. I do think he knows Watsons worth and values the QB position. But I think he also knows the value of that 2nd pick. I know we've talked about this before. But the 2nd pick on its own is twice as valuable as the CAR or DEN 1st round picks. So if we are in on Watson and your GM throws out that lets say CAR is offering 8, 2022 1st and a 2nd the next 2 years and Teddy... he knows that our 2nd pick on its own is worth those 2 1sts. That Darnold is 23 and Teddy is 28, so the future is brighter with Darnold. Lets keep in mind that Schefty is reporting that Darnold is looking to fetch a late 1st perhaps (I doubt we get that, I'm thinking more an early 2nd).

Our main competition that we need to compete with is only MIA. Every other team is drafting so much further back that what they offer isn't the same as what us or MIA offers.

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38 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I know we've talked about this before. But the 2nd pick on its own is twice as valuable as the CAR or DEN 1st round picks

... To anyone who values th DVC, which isn't many from what we've seen in our only trade this off-season. Detroit had higher picks on the table (from Carolina and Denver, no less) and they went with quantity over quality in picking LAR.

When you're rebuilding, quantity of picks will win over quality of picks. That number two pick is worth... one pick, period.

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3 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

There's lots of conflicting reports. We were his #1 team for awhile. Now the rumor is that he will accept a trade pretty much anywhere.

What we do know is that he LOVES our new HC. So I cant see him not liking us. So I think we are on his list of teams. But mainly he just wants out. So he doesn't want to give a list of a handful of teams to limit the trade partners.

What I will say is that our GM isn't a guy to hugely overpay. I do think he knows Watsons worth and values the QB position. But I think he also knows the value of that 2nd pick. I know we've talked about this before. But the 2nd pick on its own is twice as valuable as the CAR or DEN 1st round picks. So if we are in on Watson and your GM throws out that lets say CAR is offering 8, 2022 1st and a 2nd the next 2 years and Teddy... he knows that our 2nd pick on its own is worth those 2 1sts. That Darnold is 23 and Teddy is 28, so the future is brighter with Darnold. Lets keep in mind that Schefty is reporting that Darnold is looking to fetch a late 1st perhaps (I doubt we get that, I'm thinking more an early 2nd).

Our main competition that we need to compete with is only MIA. Every other team is drafting so much further back that what they offer isn't the same as what us or MIA offers.

I can’t imagine Watson wants to go suck on the jets. 

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On 2/3/2021 at 2:26 PM, ET80 said:

If I'm really entertaining this - I'm punting on QB this draft. One of these offers (Carolina, San Francisco, Denver, Miami, NYJ) will include a QB. Maybe not a good QB (I think Tua CAN be a good one) but not a disaster at QB (maybe Jimmy Garropolo).

Let them get a full season, with no QBOTF on the roster. See if the culture here is enough to get them to improve their game - they're not going to be Deshaun, but maybe they'll be good to earn the gig? And if they're not, you've got the ammo to get whatever QB you want next draft - Sam Howell, Spencer Rattler, Michael Penix Jr, Kendon Slovis. (Honestly, this team is picking 1.1 next season).

Use every pick however Lovie Smith wants. Build up a perfect Tampa 2. Let the defense usher in the next era of the Texans.

I think this is your best shot at building towards sustainable success in a post-Watson era. I just can't imagine trying to sell a fanbase on another teams recycled goods (Darnold, Tua, Carr, etc.) -- so unless Caserio is enamored with Fields/Wilson, tear it to the ground & rejuvenate the roster/culture with young talent. Watson just had an All-pro caliber season and only managed four wins -- to throw a lesser quarterback in the mix and expect newfound development + a quick rebuild would be foolish IMO.

Texans could feasibly get 5-6 FRP from the Jets by trading down from #2, especially if Schefter is correct in assuming Darnold will net a late first (hard to believe, equally hard to discredit Schefter). Despite everything that has transpired, that's not a terrible place for any team looking to embrace a full rebuild. 

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On 2/5/2021 at 11:37 AM, Pastor Dillon said:

I can’t imagine Watson wants to go suck on the jets. 

Every indication would point to the contrary -- there's a lot of smoke & most has originated from Watsons camp.

The Jets aren't positioned to "suck" moving forward. My assumption is that Watson, while recognizing this from a football perspective, also realizes the potential glory that winning in NYC would bestow. His persona extends far beyond just football & what he could accomplish here from a brand/marketing standpoint would be unparalleled. I think that's incredibly enticing for someone of his stature. Coupled with the fact he reportedly believes in Saleh, it's hard to imagine him sharing with you the same bleak outlook.

This isn't to say the Jets are his top choice or a deal is even likely at this point, just objectively reading the room -- Saleh being one of his preferred candidates, 'liking' Jets related content on twitter, supposedly loves NYC, his brother's a Jets fan.. not to mention, his agent posted a video telling people they wanted to paint his new car "Jet green". At this point, I think he'd welcome a trade anywhere. Nonetheless, if he wasn't interested in the Jets he's got a weird way of showing it.

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36 minutes ago, NJC33 said:

Every indication would point to the contrary -- there's a lot of smoke & most has originated from Watsons camp.

His own agent denied much of that smoke:

 

37 minutes ago, NJC33 said:

The Jets aren't positioned to "suck" moving forward. My assumption is that Watson, while recognizing this from a football perspective, also realizes the potential glory that winning in NYC would bestow. His persona extends far beyond just football & what he could accomplish here from a brand/marketing standpoint would be unparalleled. I think that's incredibly enticing for someone of his stature. Coupled with the fact he reportedly believes in Saleh, it's hard to imagine him sharing with you the same bleak outlook.

I'm not saying the Jets WILL suck - but it's been nearly 10 years since they were relevant. Anything past a 3-5 year revival is usually an indictment on the owner, not the different regimes coming in and out of the franchise...

It's not a coincidence that bad owners have bad football teams - Cal McNair, Mark Davis, Jimmy Haslem - and that stink doesn't really leave until the owner leaves. 

40 minutes ago, NJC33 said:

At this point, I think he'd welcome a trade anywhere.

I think this is most likely. 

It just seemed really odd to me that the two teams that were "preferred destinations" for Watson were two teams with multiple picks in this draft and picks in the top 3 (NYJ, Miami). And it seems as if the other franchise who fits this criteria (Jacksonville) is suddenly coming up in Watson talk (check ESPN). Is it a coincidence that picks 1/2/3 are suddenly either interested in Watson or Watson is interested in? Is it a coincidence that all three teams have multiple picks in this years' first round?

If I'm a betting man, that source close to Watson is someone inside the Texans organization, trying to fetch the biggest possible deal for him. 

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