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"This team is in the Pitts"


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2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

And that's probably the flaw of the simulator.  Teams don't usually pay more as players fall closer to them.  I mean, if Detroit was offered that deal by San Francisco for 7 and the Broncos offered their deal for 7 with that package, which one do you think the Lions would realistically accept?  There's always a small chance that the Lions have 3 guys who are graded out pretty similar and want to extract a little extra value, which would make sense if they stayed at 9 to make their pick.  But they trade down yet again?  A team like San Francisco who is actively looking to move up knows what they're willing to give up in terms of assets.  They're calling every team from 2 to 11 pre-draft and discussing what a potential framework and if the team is willing to move down.  They're not going to suddenly bump their offer for 9 when they weren't willing to do it for 7.  The logic just isn't there.

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Just now, Karnage84 said:

Stop making sense.

 

lol

Honestly, I have a tough time gauging the trade values in those trade.  A future FRP seems like an overpay for both Denver and San Francisco in that situation.  I think a SRP would even be a high price to pay, but I really don't think that Denver and San Francisco want to give up another premium pick in this year's draft, and future picks are devalued to begin with.  Maybe something like a '21 FRP, '21 SRP, and a '22 4th round pick for #7 and a '21 4th round pick.

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Just now, CWood21 said:

Honestly, I have a tough time gauging the trade values in those trade.  A future FRP seems like an overpay for both Denver and San Francisco in that situation.  I think a SRP would even be a high price to pay, but I really don't think that Denver and San Francisco want to give up another premium pick in this year's draft, and future picks are devalued to begin with.  Maybe something like a '21 FRP, '21 SRP, and a '22 4th round pick for #7 and a '21 4th round pick.

If you ignore the FRP, thoughts on the rest of the draft?

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2 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

If you ignore the FRP, thoughts on the rest of the draft?

I'm a pretty strong advocate of not drafting an offensive skill position player in the first round unless they're an elite positional prospect (i.e. Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson).  It's a bit fuzzier when you get closer to the backend of the first round, but I usually reserve the first round for QBs, OTs, and defense (non-ILBs).  And I'm not sure this is a particularly good draft to be picking in that 6-12 range.  Not sure there's a clear cut OT2 (although Darrisaw is probably going to be it), the EDGE aren't very good, and you just used the #3 pick last year on a CB.  I'm not a huge fan of Decker either.

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8 hours ago, Superduperman said:

No. We have a good TE and I don't want any WR in the first round because there are WRs all throughout this draft.

 

 

"There are WRs throughout this draft"      

 

 

That was said last year too.  Who did we end up with?  Cephus......

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10 hours ago, Superduperman said:

I just don't see the value in the top 15. Saying he's a great TE-WR hybrid is great, but there's always the risk of getting someone who isn't fast enough for WR and not strong enough for TE.

Besides, TE is the position of least need on the whole team.

In Pitts's case, he's a guy who is too big for DBs to handle and too athletic for LBs to handle. I understand the point about Hockenson, but they would play very different roles. If you're using Pitts as a traditional Y, you're wasting his talent. He's a guy you deploy in the slot and out wide. I watched every snap he took at UF. There wasn't a single player this year who could stop him one on one. The guy's hands are on par with prime Larry Fitzgerald, and I truly don't think I am being hyperbolic in saying that. I'm not saying the Lions should pick Pitts, but I am saying that if they do, they're getting a guy who will be one of the game's biggest mismatches.

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14 hours ago, Miblue said:

 

 

"There are WRs throughout this draft"      

 

 

That was said last year too.  Who did we end up with?  Cephus......

Guess you didn't watch Cephus last year? He can get open. I expect him to have a bigger role this year

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12 hours ago, jrry32 said:

In Pitts's case, he's a guy who is too big for DBs to handle and too athletic for LBs to handle. I understand the point about Hockenson, but they would play very different roles. If you're using Pitts as a traditional Y, you're wasting his talent. He's a guy you deploy in the slot and out wide. I watched every snap he took at UF. There wasn't a single player this year who could stop him one on one. The guy's hands are on par with prime Larry Fitzgerald, and I truly don't think I am being hyperbolic in saying that. I'm not saying the Lions should pick Pitts, but I am saying that if they do, they're getting a guy who will be one of the game's biggest mismatches.

Other than his actual speed, which I do think warrants being a part of the discussion to determine if he can play that WR/TE hybrid role in the NFL, is his blocking. He doesn't have to be a world beater but you need him to be at least somewhat competent in blocking so that you can play those mismatches. If we're running 12 personnel and he's lined up with Hockenson, the defense has to respect him enough as a blocker where they'll expect he is in because it could be a running play. If he's the key that it's going to be a play-action then you lose a lot of the value and versatility that a guy like him can offer. 

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13 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Other than his actual speed, which I do think warrants being a part of the discussion to determine if he can play that WR/TE hybrid role in the NFL, is his blocking. He doesn't have to be a world beater but you need him to be at least somewhat competent in blocking so that you can play those mismatches. If we're running 12 personnel and he's lined up with Hockenson, the defense has to respect him enough as a blocker where they'll expect he is in because it could be a running play. If he's the key that it's going to be a play-action then you lose a lot of the value and versatility that a guy like him can offer. 

His blocking is serviceable. He's not going to handle NFL DLs and edge defenders all that well, but he can handle LBs and dominates DBs. Personally, I'd treat him more like a WR than a TE. He's harder to defend when you can't use edges and LBs to disrupt his releases off the LOS. He's a massive guy with elite hands and the physicality to create the needed separation. Plus, he's shockingly agile for his size. I watched him beat guys like Tyson Campbell, Jaycee Horn, Israel Mukuamu, and Kelvin Joseph for big plays this year while playing WR. And that's just off the top of my head. 

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On 2/5/2021 at 10:13 AM, Karnage84 said:

This is just an exercise in trying something different. I'm not generally a fan of taking a TE up high but Pitts could be played more as a versatile WR and be BPA. 

  • Lions trade #7 (Justin Fields) to Denver for #9, #73 (3rd), #233 (7th)
  • Lions trade #9 (Trey Lance) to San Francisco for #12, #102 (3rd), 2022 1st

Pick breakdown - Offense (3/9); Defense (6/9)

#12 - Kyle Pitts, WR/TE, Florida: Pitts is more of a big WR and playmaker. There's a lot of things that would lead up to this pick - Pitts' 40 time will be the difference, Parsons (who was available) not interviewing well with character concerns, etc. If the Lions choose to franchise tag Kenny, Pitts would give them KG insurance and another tool in the toolbox for new QB Jared Goff. We have to be able to put points on the board in order to win. KG (if he's playing under the tag or re-signed), Hockenson, Pitts is a nice trio.

 

#39 - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama: He is probably going to be picked in the 1st round but he was available here. We need pass-rushing help in the biggest of ways. He can play in both a 3-4 and 4-3 front. 

 

#71 - Levi Onwuzurike, DT/DE, Washington: Another interior pass-rusher, he is on the smaller side compared to someone like Barmore. He fits the mold of what Da'Shawn Hand is and should be able to fit his role. 

 

#73 - Jabril Cox, LB, LSU: A LB that fits the mold of the new age linebacker. Should help improve our capabilities moving side-line to sideline instead of the big, clunky guys that were favoured under the previous regime. 

 

#88 - Walker Little, OT, Stanford: Little is a guy that had been mocked in the top 10 in 2019 mock drafts. He was injured and lost a season and seems to be a guy that has been forgotten in the mix. He offers up a lot of upside and could be one of the better OT's in this class if he can stay healthy. Should slot in at RT and could be our LTOTF.

 

#102 - Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson: A dynamic slot WR with great hands. Made a ton of plays at the Senior Bowl. He could easily become one of Goff's favourite new toys. 

 

#111 - Ronnie Perkins, EDGE, Oklahoma: We need help on the edge in a big way. Perkins could develop into a stud playmaker as he has the tools to get there. 

 

#150 - Caden Sterns, S, Texas: Versatile safety with the potential to play in a number of roles in different schemes. Will need to become more aggressive at the LOS.

 

#233 - Camryn Bynum, CB, Cal: Athletic developmental CB. Really just more of an outside guy. 

 

I’ve been thinking a great deal about Pitts. I would be totally in favour of drafting him if his 40 time is satisfactory. He’s virtually the same size as CJ and if he has adequate speed the versatility would bring an interesting dynamic.

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1 minute ago, diehardlionfan said:

I’ve been thinking a great deal about Pitts. I would be totally in favour of drafting him if his 40 time is satisfactory. He’s virtually the same size as CJ and if he has adequate speed the versatility would bring an interesting dynamic.

If he is there, we can't trade down (or we've traded down and he's BPA), his athletic profile fits the CJ/DK Metcalf type or mode, I'd rather take him over someone like Devonta Smith. It could totally blow up in our face but it feels like he could be a real mismatch and guy the defense has to account for.

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I’d be ok drafting Pitts. It’s not about the position. It’s about playmakers. We wouldn’t be asking him to get his hand in the fort and block DEs. He’s a mismatch and a TE than can catch 60 balls for 800 yards and 8-10 TDs a year. He’s not comparable to Eric Ebron. He’s a WR in a TEs body who has measurables off the charts. 

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Big reason why the Lions have been so bad is that they don't use their draft picks in a wise manner. Drafting a TE at #7 is a terrible move no matter who they are. As if I even need to tell any of you that. The hell is wrong with you all

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22 minutes ago, HashtagFTW said:

I’d be ok drafting Pitts. It’s not about the position. It’s about playmakers. We wouldn’t be asking him to get his hand in the fort and block DEs. He’s a mismatch and a TE than can catch 60 balls for 800 yards and 8-10 TDs a year. He’s not comparable to Eric Ebron. He’s a WR in a TEs body who has measurables off the charts. 

We haven't really seen his measurables at this point, so I would want to wait until his pro day before making that kind of judgement. It does appear to line up on tape though, which is the first start. He ran a 4.70 40 at 6'6 and 239 lbs during his recruitment (ESPN recruiting).

DK Metcalf ran 4.72 at 6'4, 210 lbs. 

Guys do develop and the high school testing numbers aren't indicative of where a guy is now but it does show what he could do at an early age. 

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4 minutes ago, Superduperman said:

Big reason why the Lions have been so bad is that they don't use their draft picks in a wise manner. Drafting a TE at #7 is a terrible move no matter who they are. As if I even need to tell any of you that. The hell is wrong with you all

BECAUSE HE WOULD BE PLAYED AS A WR.... 

If you're against the idea of drafting a WR that high... I get it. If you're against the idea of drafting a TE playing a more traditional TE role (like Hock), I get it. I like Hock the player but it was a huge investment for someone at that position. 

If you're open to guys like Chase, Smith at #7 and Pitts is going to be played in a similar fashion, then he should be in the conversation. 

Also, in my draft we take him after a trade down to #12. So we're not even talking about taking him at #7 but outside of the top 10. 

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