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Nacho Simulation Football League (Season 21 - Taco Bowl XXI POSTED!)


TheKillerNacho

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Team PWNY Wins Loss Win % Net PF PA OR DR LUCK
Reykjavík Direwolves 12.704 8 2 0.800 69 307 238 2 5 0.060
Rio de Janeiro Pirates 12.300 7 3 0.700 58 286 228 4 2 -0.687
Freiburg Venom 11.078 8 2 0.800 43 303 260 3 11 1.076
Richmond Flying Squirrels 10.693 6 4 0.600 39 315 276 1 15 -0.683
Norway Knights 10.492 7 3 0.700 30 262 232 8 4 0.442
Hanoi Viet Kongs 10.409 6 4 0.600 28 253 225 10 1 -0.506
Chicago Fire 9.942 4 6 0.400 24 269 245 7 6 -2.214
Egypt Starfalls 9.333 5 5 0.500 15 244 229 14 3 -0.833
Rocket City Trash Pandas 9.194 6 4 0.600 15 272 257 6 10 0.254
Scranton Papermakers 7.838 6 4 0.600 -2 261 263 9 12 1.101
Anchorage Moose 7.748 5 5 0.500 -3 251 254 12 9 0.157
Tacoma Thunder 7.651 4 6 0.400 -4 241 245 16 6 -0.782
Miami Sharks 7.569 4 6 0.400 -5 243 248 15 8 -0.730
Phoenix Rattlers 6.235 5 5 0.500 -25 283 308 5 20 1.103
Antarctica Penguin Poppers 6.115 4.5 5.5 0.450 -24 253 277 10 16 0.678
Little Rock Uni Royals 5.999 3 7 0.300 -25 247 272 13 13 -0.750
South Africa Woolly Mammoths 4.609 3.5 6.5 0.350 -43 231 274 17 14 0.619
Indianapolis Predators 4.012 2 8 0.200 -53 231 284 17 18 -0.507
Pittsburgh Punishers 3.240 3 7 0.300 -67 227 294 19 19 0.975
Lancaster Fighting Amish 2.860 3 7 0.300 -70 210 280 20 17 1.212

 

Div PWNY Wins Loss Win % Net PF PA
Red 8.702 27.5 22.5 0.550 42 1287 1245
Blue 8.370 23 27 0.460 22 1270 1248
Yellow 7.935 25.5 24.5 0.510 -4 1303 1307
Green 7.068 24 26 0.480 -60 1329 1389
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Cheesy conference

  1. >99% 8-2 Reykjavík Direwolves
  2. 98% 7-3 Rio de Janeiro Pirates
  3. 97% 7-3 Norway Knights
  4. 85% 6-4 Hanoi Viet Kong
  5. 8% 5-5 Anchorage Moose
  6. 7% 4-6 Chicago Fire
  7. 3% 4-6 Tacoma Thunder
  8. 2% 3-6-1 South Africa Woolly Mammoths
  9. <1% 3-7 Lancaster Fighting Amish
  10. <1% 3-7 Little Rock Uni Royals

The predictor says its a wrap - but I think it overstates the chances of this being locked down. Kong have a 1 game lead over the Moose AND their pwny/elo metrics are giving them a bump in the win% of remaining games, which is what causes the gap between 4 and 5. But just remember that week 16 matchup could be important. Until then though, it feels like the 4 are in really good shape right now

Salsa conference

  1. >99% 8-2 Freiburg Venom
  2. 79% 6-4 Rocket City Trash Pandas
  3. 74% 6-4 Richmond Flying Squirrels
  4. 73% 6-4 Scranton Papermakers
  5. 29% 5-5 Egypt Starfall
  6. 28% 5-5 Phoenix Rattlers
  7. 12% 4-5-1 Antarctica Penguin Poppers
  8. 6% 4-6 Miami Sharks
  9. <1% 3-7 Pittsburgh Punishers
  10. <1% 2-8 Indianapolis Predators

My how Egypt has fallen. Venom are a +3 over 5th, which feels pretty insurmountable here. The rest of the pack is still tight, but the 6-4s are all in a good spot according to the model. Far from over though, and I expect some more wild swings as these teams play each other. 

The week ahead

Amish @ Mammoths - not much to see here. both teams basically drawing dead. I don't think a W can save the Amish, although I suppose a W can keep the Mammoths in deep darkhorse contention with a few other favorable outcomes

Punishers @ Papermakers - Papermakers at home should be a no brainer here. It will be critical to maintaining that playoff positioning and a massive missed opportunity if they get upset

Kongs @ Royals - See above. Road games are dangerous, but this is an opportunity the Kongs cannot afford to blow, in order to maintain or even extend their lead

Predators @ Poppers - Poppers get a 2-8 team at home. They can afford to lose one more game and still have a shot, but with their remaining schedule, they need this one

Thunder @ Squirrels - A bit of an underrated matchup IMO. The Thunder are very much in "must win out" mode, and the Squirrels are fighting for the division. Feels like an obvious choice, but the Thunder are always a tough out

Pirates @ Direwolves - Yes, this is the big one - definite GOTW. The result should not materially affect playoff odds, but critical to the divisional odds. If the Direwolves hold on for the win at home, I think its a wrap. Up 2 games plus tiebreakers with 5 left is basically a done deal. But if the Pirates return the favor and get a road W, its wide open. Both teams have a very similar remaining schedule, but Pirates would have ALL the momentum (and I believe the tiebreaker). A Pirates win also opens the door for the Kongs to be a darkhorse division candidate

Rattlers @ Starfall - At 5-5, this is an absolute must win for both teams. The winner likely falls into a tie for the final playoff spot, while the loser falls a game behind. Absolutely critical for both.

Moose @ Fire - this is the battle of "who is going to emerge as the challenge to the Kongs for the 4th seed". If the Moose win, I don't see the Fire coming back at 7 losses. If the Fire pull it off, you have two 5-6 teams who are gigantic fans of the Royals to upset the Kongs.

Pandas @ Venom - The other lowkey GOTW. It isn't quite as flashy as the longtime rivalry game in Red div, but it's still 8-2 against 6-4 and a battle for the division. Similarly, if the Venom win, its a done deal in the division, and the Pandas need to just worry about making the playoffs. If the Pandas pull off the road win, they are within striking distance of the Yellow division and creating additional separation against the playoff pack

Knights @ Sharks - Not a super meaningful game. Knights can survive a bad outcome here, and I'm not sure the Sharks can do much, even if they pull off the W. A win for the Knights though would further cement their stranglehold on the division, and give them a legitimate chance at the 1 seed

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