TheKillerNacho Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Pickle Rick said: Nacho: if you kill you become a bad guy so we have to no lynch Nacho: oh no I'm being pushed, lets kill orca so I can become a bad guy whoever killed swag is probably a bad guy now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said: @The OrcaI have a coin. I flip it once, and it's heads. I then say, "Well , there's only a 25% chance that two heads in a row will occur, so if you wager $100 that the next flip will be tails, I'll give you $25 if it's heads. After all... 3 to 1, odds, right? btw if you still cannot understand gamblers fallacy or how you are guilty of it after this analogy i give up, im talking to a wall lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Wow so I tried to watch Swag and my move failed. At least I picked right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, TheKillerNacho said: When you already know the result of the first outcome, the second outcome's chances remain unchanged Jesus I've tutored 5th graders back when i was a high schooler who understood this concept. Lol If something has never happened....an alien attack on new york city occurs. You would bet the next day a different set of aliens would attack new york city again 🤣 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Counselor said: Wow so I tried to watch Swag and my move failed. At least I picked right. if you were successful, the entire game mightve been solved FeelsBadMan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said: the second outcome's chances remain unchanged That means there is a 0.000000000001% chance that this is all town game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, TheKillerNacho said: if you were successful, the entire game mightve been solved FeelsBadMan If scum roleblocked me they picked right also then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Counselor said: If scum roleblocked me they picked right also then Nacho says we are all town Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, The Orca said: Lol If something has never happened....an alien attack on new york city occurs. You would bet the next day a different set of aliens would attack new york city again 🤣 no? what you're putting forth (an incredibly unlikely event occuring, period) is different than what you're tryign to accuse me of (an unlikely event occuring twice in a row, after already knowing the first result). to answer your question, if an alien attack on new york occurs, I will consider it no less likely another set of aliens would attack new york city the next day, not that the event of "aliens attacking new york" is likely to begin with. you're literally grasping almost the complete inverse of gambler's falacy. All you have to do is reverse what you're curerntly thinking and youll have it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Pickle Rick said: That means there is a 0.000000000001% chance that this is all town game possiblity. although I said from the beginning it was a hunch on a previous conversation with Dome... we'll soon see, although what Orca is having issue with is the chance of "bastard win conditions" ... of which the chance is no where near that low. Blue's game was definitely not the first with imprecise win conditions I've played on this site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Orca said: Nacho says we are all town My hypothesis, yes. I'm willing to consider I'm wrong - I was only 30-50% sure to begin with. But knowing I was lynch proof made the choice to NL d1 easier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, The Orca said: Nacho says we are all town How so? Dome showed Bad guys in the Op 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Counselor said: How so? Dome showed Bad guys in the Op Did he say they existed? Or what would appear if they did exist? Either way, There's probably a bad guy or two now. Even if my initial hypothesis was correct, whoever killed Swag is almost certainly one now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, TheKillerNacho said: Did he say they existed? Or what would appear if they did exist? Either way, There's probably a bad guy or two now. Even if my initial hypothesis was correct, whoever killed Swag is probably one now. I’m pretty sure I was most likely roleblocked. Now not as revealing as Blues game in being told but my move did fail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, TheKillerNacho said: no? what you're putting forth (an incredibly unlikely event occuring, period) is different than what you're tryign to accuse me of (an unlikely event occuring twice in a row, after already knowing the forth result). to answer your question, if an alien attack on new york occurs, I will consider it no less likely another set of aliens would attack new york city the next day, not that the event of "aliens attacking new york" is likely to begin with. you're literally grasping almost the complete inverse of gambler's falacy. All you have to do is reverse what you're curerntly thinking and youll have it. Keep ignoring me 3 minutes ago, Counselor said: How so? Dome showed Bad guys in the Op Ask Nacho. I said what you did. D0 bad guy died good guys congratulations, N0 good guy dies bad guy congratulations...shows bad guys in the game 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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