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Questions the Saints need to answer this off-season:


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32 minutes ago, Dome said:

No. But we aren't paying him like we think he can produce top 3 numbers, we're paying him like a UDFA. 

 

Yes, that's great and all but we just saw Hendrickson put up top 3 pass rush numbers this past year, so things get a bit awkward from there.

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19 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

Yes, that's great and all but we just saw Hendrickson put up top 3 pass rush numbers this past year, so things get a bit awkward from there.

Jarran Reed put up 10.5 sacks from the DT position in 2018, better than Rankins in his career year. He's had 8.5 combined since then, and he had 3 combined in the two years previous. 10.5 in 1 season, 11.5 combined in the four other seasons.

Kyler Fackrell had 10.5 sacks in 2018 as well, playing in just 59% of snaps for GB. He's combined for 10 sacks in his other 4 seasons.

Vic Beasley's 15.5 sack season stands out. He's had 18 sacks in since then (4 seasons). 

 

Sometimes guys just pop off for a year, it doesn't mean they're suddenly elite. I would not be remotely surprised to see Hendrickson fall back to earth, like 8-10 sacks on 80% of the snaps while he struggles against the run, and then that $15m elite pass rusher contract looks really really bad. 

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10 hours ago, Dome said:

Jarran Reed put up 10.5 sacks from the DT position in 2018, better than Rankins in his career year. He's had 8.5 combined since then, and he had 3 combined in the two years previous. 10.5 in 1 season, 11.5 combined in the four other seasons.

Kyler Fackrell had 10.5 sacks in 2018 as well, playing in just 59% of snaps for GB. He's combined for 10 sacks in his other 4 seasons.

Vic Beasley's 15.5 sack season stands out. He's had 18 sacks in since then (4 seasons). 

 

Sometimes guys just pop off for a year, it doesn't mean they're suddenly elite. I would not be remotely surprised to see Hendrickson fall back to earth, like 8-10 sacks on 80% of the snaps while he struggles against the run, and then that $15m elite pass rusher contract looks really really bad. 

As I previously mentioned, Hendrickson produced when given a chance in 2019, and then in 2020, he took it to an elite level when given more snaps. This isn't a 1 year situation to me, but even if it was, you don't let a guy that puts up numbers like that go for someone like Marcus Williams. I could go on about the flaws of Williams the past few years.

If I'm wrong, I'll gladly eat crow, but you better believe I'll be sending it if Hendrickson continues to produce at a similar level lol. Especially if it's on another team. Guess only time will tell here.

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1 hour ago, tyler735 said:

As I previously mentioned, Hendrickson produced when given a chance in 2019, and then in 2020, he took it to an elite level when given more snaps. This isn't a 1 year situation to me, but even if it was, you don't let a guy that puts up numbers like that go for someone like Marcus Williams. I could go on about the flaws of Williams the past few years.

If I'm wrong, I'll gladly eat crow, but you better believe I'll be sending it if Hendrickson continues to produce at a similar level...Especially if it's on another team. Guess only time will tell here...

Hendrickson’s lack of ability in run support is why I would not pay him elite money... just like Williams poor tackling is why I wouldn't make him the leagues highest paid safety but some teams out there will be willing to do both on the open market.

 

My guess... 

 

Hendrickson signs with the Jets.

 

Williams signs with the Lions.

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I don't think Hendrickson will have top 3 pass rush numbers next year.  He'll remain a solid pass rusher, and I'd like to re-sign him, but I' rather not pay him elite money.  I'm not all that high on Williams either.  He's a good player, but I won't lose sleep over not being able to sign him.

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3 hours ago, MookieMonstah said:

If we lose Trey and Williams, our defense will take a big step back next year.

Might be inevitable... we been knowing for years that there would be a price to kicking the can down the road on not just Brees deal but with our all in mentality. The Saints have racked up a ton of dead money not just now but in the future, they also have a few deals currently in the books that they are stuck with for at least a year or two. They could likely get Williams or Hendrickson extended but how do the numbers lineup in future years and at what cost?

 

The fact is that the Saints need to restructure their base payments of how they invest into players / positions when it comes to the salary cap. Thomas, Jordan and Armstead will be our top 3 paid players for a while as we're not paying a franchise quarterback contract nowadays. Ramczyk and Lattimore are about to join them in the top 5. If you look at most NFL franchises salary cap layouts typically only the top 6-7 players are big money guys. When your not paying a franchise quarterback you can stretch it out to 8-9 of your top players in the 10+ million per year range. However the Saints are still committed to Brees for 12 million in 2021 and 2022 on top of what there paying Hill and possible Winston so I feel the Saints are still in that 7 range. So let's look at it...

 

1. Cam Jordan at 18.9

2. Mike Thomas at 18.8

3. Terron Armstead at 16.2

4. Taysom Hill at 16.1

 

Janoris Jenkins and Kown Alexander come in at 5 & 6 but both will either be released or take major pay cuts to stay.

 

They are followed by Brees still on the books for 12 million, Andrus Peat at 11, then Demario Davis, Lattimore, Ramczyk and Onyemata all at 10+ million cap hit.

 

Ram and Lattimore are due to get long-term extensions this offseasons or play out their rookie deals so where do you value guys like Williams and Hendrickson and how do you pay them?

 

Do you value both as top 5 players on the team moving forward which is about what you would have to pay them? This is why the Saints will look at Carl Granderson and hope he can step into that pass rush 3rd down role and look for a bounce back year from Davenport as both players would cost less than half of a new Hendrickson deal. As for Williams, is good but is he top 5 on the cap good as the highest paid safety in the NFL? The Saints could likely land the top safety in the draft at 28 to replace him on a 5 year deal totaling less than what Williams will make in the first year of his new contract.

 

Fact is Hendrickson is a very good edge rusher when thats all he's asked to do and Williams is a very good safety when all he's asked to do is roam the center of the field but neither is worth what other teams will be willing to pay for them on the open market and this Saints off-season will be mostly about filling holes as we begin to feel the effect of our all in mentality over the last few years.

 

I guess what I'm saying is... do you value Williams or Hendrickson as foundational pieces? The Saints have always nit valued safeties as such (Jenkins, Vaccaro, Bell) and recent history in the NFL shows you to be wary of breakout pass rushers in contract years who aren't good run defenders.

 

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2 hours ago, whodatworm23 said:

 

 

I guess what I'm saying is... do you value Williams or Hendrickson as foundational pieces? The Saints have always nit valued safeties as such (Jenkins, Vaccaro, Bell) and recent history in the NFL shows you to be wary of breakout pass rushers in contract years who aren't good run defenders.

 

Jenkins and Vaccaro were let go because they weren't playing well. Bell is gone because we had a surplus of safeties. Marcus Williams is one of the best coverage safeties in the league, I think Saints will do whatever it takes to keep him around.

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1 hour ago, MookieMonstah said:

Jenkins and Vaccaro were let go because they weren't playing well. Bell is gone because we had a surplus of safeties. Marcus Williams is one of the best coverage safeties in the league, I think Saints will do whatever it takes to keep him around.

I tend to agree... I think the Saints really value Williams more so than most realize. I think they view him as a young Darren Sharper who can seal games with timely INTs. Malcolm Jenkins will come off the books next year when the Saints release him. I feel the Saints view Williams and Lattimore as the mainstays in their defensive secondary the question is are they willing to make Williams the highest paid safety in the NFL or is Williams willing to give the Saints a smidge of a hometown discount to remain here?

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On 2/15/2021 at 2:06 PM, whodatworm23 said:

I tend to agree... I think the Saints really value Williams more so than most realize. I think they view him as a young Darren Sharper who can seal games with timely INTs. Malcolm Jenkins will come off the books next year when the Saints release him. I feel the Saints view Williams and Lattimore as the mainstays in their defensive secondary the question is are they willing to make Williams the highest paid safety in the NFL or is Williams willing to give the Saints a smidge of a hometown discount to remain here?

I think Payton values pass rushers more than any other position.  Hes been on record saying so for years.  And of course, they just spent two firsts on a pass rusher.  If Payton feels Hendrickson will continue to play at a high level, I bet they sign him first.

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25 minutes ago, Jlowe22 said:

I think Payton values pass rushers more than any other position.  Hes been on record saying so for years.  And of course, they just spent two firsts on a pass rusher.  If Payton feels Hendrickson will continue to play at a high level, I bet they sign him first.

Thats actually not entirely true... Loomis was on record with the Davenport pick about how they valued his size, traits but most importantly his overall game vs the run and pass. They felt his upside was worth the investment. They didn't draft Davenport to simply be a edge rusher... they drafted him to be a complete defensive end like Cameron Jordan. 

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On 2/12/2021 at 4:56 PM, whodatworm23 said:

I see him higher on Williams than you... ball hawking centerfielders are rare and Williams has been very good over the last 4 seasons. 

 

13 INTs and he's still only 24. He plays almost 100% of our defensive snaps, not a rotational player. I think he's part of our core to build around.

I really really want to keep Williams, and would prioritize him over Hendrickson even.

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On 2/15/2021 at 7:51 AM, MookieMonstah said:

If we lose Trey and Williams, our defense will take a big step back next year.

Mook I've seen you post before but didn't realize you were a Saints fan... somehow I thought you were a Browns fan. Idk how that happened. But anyway, good to have another in our ranks 😄

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20 hours ago, Jlowe22 said:

I think Payton values pass rushers more than any other position.  Hes been on record saying so for years.  And of course, they just spent two firsts on a pass rusher.  If Payton feels Hendrickson will continue to play at a high level, I bet they sign him first.

Payton also says one of his biggest regrets is letting Jenkins walk and sign with the Eagles in 2014. I think letting Williams sign with another team would end up being an even bigger regret for him. 

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