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Daniel's Draft Thread-2021


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I haven't made the progress I'd like to make in tape watching this season, so for now, my rankings are a little sparse, but I'll fill them in as the offseason goes on.  Initial thoughts on the class are we have a great group of Edges, ILBs, and DLs.  Everywhere else the class seems pretty average.  The interior OL class is kinda weak, but there are enough tweener tackles for that.  The QB class is insane at the top end, but really shallow, with little talent after the first rounders.

I'll be posting mocks in this thread as well, once we get into free agency and pro days.

QB: The top end talent is insane, with 5 QBs that could go in the first round, with one of them looking like a potential generational talent.  Trask and Mond provide some intriguing options as early as the second round, but after that, the dropoff is severe.  Franks is the only one worth talking about after that, and he shouldn't go before the fourth round.

1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson: Not shocking anyone here.
2. Justin Fields, Ohio St: Looked better and better as the season went on.
3. Zach Wilson, BYU: He just did not turn the ball over.  No. 3 by the slimmest of margins.
4. Trey Lance, NDSU: All the physical tools and a good arm.
5. Mac Jones, Bama: Almost put him fourth.  He had a lot of weapons, but he also had a special season.
6. Kyle Trask, Florida: Good when things are going well for him.
7. Kellen Mond, TAMU: I was high on Mond coming into 2020, but he didn't really develop past the 2019 version like I'd hoped.
8. Feliepe Franks, Arkansas: Hated watching him engineer that comeback against Tennessee.  Some talent to work with.

RB:

1. Najee Harris, Bama:
2. Travis Etienne, Clemson:

WR: Another deep class, I wish I got to sorting them out further than just a top 5, but there's a lot to like.  I don't like Toney, so there's the hot take.

1. Ja'Marr Chase, LSU: As good as his former teammate has been in the NFL, and as good as Chase looked next to him, he's No. 1 in my book.
2. Rashod Bateman, Minnesota: Big enough to bully CBs and make contested catches or pile on YAC.
3. DeVonta Smith, Bama: The better of the two Bama WRs, he's a crisp route runner with good hands.  But he is skiiiiiiinny.
4. Elijah Moore, Ole Miss: Polished, potentially a slot, but Ole Miss pumps out athletic receivers like it's going out of style.
5. Jaylen Waddle, Bama: Elite speed, and can change direction better than some speedsters, but recent injury bumps him down.

TE: A good group of TEs.  Two first rounders, two other future starters, and then some contributors.

1. Kyle Pitts, Florida: Dynamic pass catching threat.
2. Pat Freirmuth, Penn St: Baby Gronk
3. Brevin Jordan, Miami: Another dynamic pass catcher, attacks the ball with his hands, and a YAC monster.
4. Hunter Long, BoCo: Big bodied, but lean for size, solid blocker and soft hands.  Big upside if he fills out his frame.
5. Tommy Tremble, ND: Great blocker with good athleticism.
6. Kenny Yeboah, Ole Miss: A little bigger and he'd be a top tier TE.  Not much of a blocker, shifty, and long striding.
7. Matt Bushman, BYU: Long arms, good catch ability, could develop into a good blocker with his reach.  Medicals an issue.
8. Tre McKitty, Georgia: Great blocker, and athletic.  Showed a little pass catching ability in the Senior Bowl.
9. Quintin Morris, Bowling Green: Pass catcher that produced in 2019, but no blocking ability.
10. Kylen Granson, SMU: Receiving TE who's a little too small and can't block.

OT:

OL:

DL: This class is so full of tweeners that I simply put the big guys in as DLs and the smaller guys as Edges regardless of what they played in college.  This DL class is loaded, and depending on the development of a few guys that didn't play, may be even better.  Unfortunately, that also meant conjecturing on where a few guys fall. 

1. Kwity Paye, Michigan: Dripping with talent.  Reminds me of Marlon Davidson with better length and technique.  Could be an edge.
2. Daviyon Nixon, Iowa: Criminally underrated, collapses the pocket like no one else.  Reminds me of Jeffery Simmons, with less refinement and more power.
3. Carlos Basham, Wake: Apparently had a severe case of covid, so I'm taking his lacking tape from 2020 with a grain of salt.  Looked great at the Senior Bowl.
4. Jay Tufele, USC: Looked like an ascending player in 2019, great play strength.  Big and fast, but a little raw.
5. Christian Barmore, Bama: Came up big in the big game.  Bull rushing specialist that is surprisingly quick to shoot the gaps.
6. Levi Onwuzurike, Washington: Controls the gap well and is good with his hands, but not many splash plays.  Could rise or fall drastically on Senior Day with no 2020.
7. Osa Odighizuwa, UCLA: Looked very good in the Senior Bowl and a productive player.
8. Jaylen Twyman, Pitt: Looks like an interior pass rush specialist at the next level more than an every down player.
9. Bobby Brown III, TAMU: True nose tackle, pushes the pocket well, and provides a little pass rush.
10. Dante Stills, WVU: The better Stills brother can move the pocket, but really excels as a pass rusher.
11. Darius Stills, WVU: A better pocket collapser than his bro, and more apt to blitz on the edge, but not as good a penetrator.
HM: Mustafa Johnson, Colorado: A well rounded, classic 4-3 DT with a good motor.  People seem to think he's undersized.

Edge: As I said, smaller guys went here.  Like other positions, some key guys didn't play in 2020, so it's tough to rank.  Still, a very good and deep class, but so full of tweeners.  Rousseau was raw in 2019, but so physically talented that even a slight improvement in technique over the last year probably puts him over the top.

1. Greg Rousseau, Miami:  When I first started reviewing tape, I thought Rousseau would be eclipsed by better players, but the more 2019 tape I watched, the more dominant he looked.  Had he played this season, there's a good chance he'd be a top 5 pick if he improved his technique.
2. Joe Tryon, Washington: Built like a 3-4 linebacker, pushes people around like a 3-4 DL.  Solid bend, a slew of pass rush moves, and a decent tackler.
3. Joseph Ossai, Texas: The best tackler in this class, but not a lot of pass rush moves and seemed to rely on speed more than bend to get to the edge.
4. Patrick Jones II, Pitt: Plenty of moves, and does a good job of staying where he needs to when blocked, but no elite traits.
5. Azeez Ojulari, Georgia: I like everything I see on tape, except this constant issue of Ojulari being nearly there, but never making the play.
6. Jaelen Phillips, Miami: Good ball awareness, but not as powerful at the point of attack as you would hope.
7. Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma: Pure pass rusher, don't see many coverage traits, but good blend of bend, speed, and strength.
8. Quincy Roche, Miami: This class's prototypical lean, twitchy edge guy.  Looked good in the Senior Bowl and has the best bend in the class. EDIT: He has been moved down since he weighed in at a paltry 235.
9. Rashad Weaver, Pitt: Lives in the backfield, but rarely finishing plays there.  Long arms always out when the ball comes out.
10. Shaka Toney, Penn St: Tends to get caught hand fighting with OLs way too often.  Good at stunting to inside.
11. Cam Sample, Tulane: Suspect production at a low level, but looked great in the Senior Bowl practice and game.  Might be a riser.
HM: Chris Rumph, Duke: Fast, pretty good at shooting gaps and getting around tackles, but he is just too small for the next level.

ILBs: This is an excellent class to need an ILB in.  There's a plethora of very different types.  Good at the top with Collins, Parsons, and Browning and deep after.

1. Zaven Collins, Tulsa: Fast, physical guy who is kind of a hybrid edge/off the ball.  Good coverage ability and a big frame gives him tremendous upside.
2. Micah Parsons, Penn St: Elite read and react ability, the speed to play sideline to sideline, and pretty good coverage ability.  Not the strongest tackler though.
3. Baron Browning, Ohio St: Fits the mold of the guy who's ascending at the right time.  Spends so much of his time lined way off the ball and dropping into coverage, but a very sure tackler when it comes to it.
4. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, ND: Sideline to sideline speed and read ability, but sort of a weak and hesitant tackler.
5. Nick Bolton, Mizzou: Prototypical thumper, he's a hard hitter with a high motor and good closing speed.  Don't see him in pass coverage.
6. Chazz Surratt, NC: Has all the physical tools, but he is a very hesitant tackler, and not the quickest.  High upside though.
7. Jahad Woods, Washington St: Great speed, but not sideline to sideline ability.  Sure tackler, competent blitzer, rarely drops back into coverage.
8. Tony Fields, WVU: Tweener LB/Safety type guy, but does better with blocks than his size would say.  Discount Parsons.
9. Dylan Moses, Bama: Started higher on the list until I started watching tape of other guys.  Not particularly fast, and gets absolutely destroyed by pulling OLs.
10. Paddy Fisher, Northwestern: More assists than plays made.  Good coverage skills, but needs to be faster to cover in the NFL, and stronger to be an NFL thumper.
HM: Jabril Cox, LSU: Fast, and coverage skills for days, but he pulls up on tackles all the time.  Doesn't finish.

S: Not a great safety class, but there are some solid players here.  Only Moehrig gets a first round grade, but there are a few worth taking in the second, a few more thirds, and then a dropoff.

1. Trevon Moehrig, TCU: A safety that can actually cover like a CB, and probably the only one in the class.
2. Jevon Holland, Oregon: Sat out 2020, so could be even better.  Centerfielder with good hands.
3. Paris Ford, Pitt: A little lean, but he diagnoses plays quickly and is a sure tackler with good speed.
4. Talanoa Hufanga, USC: Interception machine in 2020 with great size for the position.
5. Hamsah Nasirildeen, FSU: Aggressive, hard hitter, with good hands.
6. Caden Sterns, Texas: Probably not helpful against the run, but a solid centerfielder who gets to where the ball is.
7. Andre Cisco, Syracuse: Scary medicals, but a hard hitter with great size for his speed.  Reminds me of Kevin Byard.
8. Richie Grant, UCF: Solid safety, but doesn't show the speed he probably needs at the next level.
9. Ar'Darius Washington, TCU: Outshined by his teammate, and a little small, but a solid player.
10. Joshuah Bledsoe, Mizzou: Slot safety who brings decent size, not enough speed.

CB: I haven't evaluated all the CBs I want to just yet, since evaluations still seem to be absolutely all over the place.  Surtain and Horn are can't misses, especially after they destroyed their pro days.  Farley has a scary injury history and sat out a year, but he's a quality CB prospect.  After that, things get uneven, with guys that are more projection picks or guys with some weaknesses.

1. Patrick Surtain, Bama: Do-it-all, long, fast, and a ton of quality game tape against top level competition.
2. Jaycee Horn, SC: Aggressive, and all the speed in the world to keep playing that aggressively in the NFL.
3. Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech: Some injuries, but built like an NFL CB, and good tape before he sat out 2020.
4. Tyson Campbell, Georgia: The better of the two Georgia CBs, despite Stokes' 40 time.  Pretty polished, but not nearly the player that the three above are.
5. Greg Newsome, Northwestern: Smooth, fluid mover, and long.  Looks the part, but not much tape against quality receivers.
6. Aaron Robinson, UCF: The slot CB of the class, but just a slot.
7. Shaun Wade, Ohio St: Super uneven tape, but he is physically built, and has a ton of upside.  Needs a lot of work though.
8. Paulson Adebo, Stanford: Good technique, big body, but some uneven tape and a recent injury.
9. Kelvin Joseph, Kentucky: Another upside CB, sticky and good ball skills.

2021 Mock Draft: I use my own BB, even though I know it will play out differently IRL.  I also don't do trades.

1. Jags: Trevor Lawrence: Obvious pick is obvious
2. Jets: Justin Fields: Could be either Fields or Wilson, and I like Fields.
3. 49ers: Zach Wilson: The third QB.
4. Falcons: Kyle Pitts: Falcons will be in a tough spot, and will probably try to trade down.  If not, generational TE it is.
5. Bengals: Penei Sewell: A stud left tackle to keep heat off of Burrow is the obvious way to go.
6. Dolphins: Ja’Mar Chase: A stud weapon for a young QB.
7. Lions: Trey Lance: Without Stafford, I imagine the Lions will jump on Lance.  In reality, they may need to trade up to do so.
8. Panthers: Patrick Surtain: This is probably a little earlier than Surtain will go, but he's the best player that makes sense for the Panthers.
9. Broncos: Zaven Collins: Now, in reality, this will be Parsons or maybe JOK, but on my BB, the top ILB is Collins, who also adds some pass rush.
10. Cowboys: Alijah Vera-Tucker: A stud, versatile OL that can also screw over the Giants, who want a tackle.
11. Giants: Kwity Paye: They could take the next OT up, but Paye is a better player, and they need pass rush.
12. Eagles: Jaycee Horn: Farley might be the pick if they don't care about his medicals, but Horn has some elite qualities.
13. Chargers: Rashod Bateman: Another team with a young QB taking a young WR.
14. Vikings: Greg Rousseau: A raw but infinitely talented pass rusher for the Vikings.
15. Pats: Micah Parsons: The Pats would like to go in other directions, but Parsons is the best option if they can't trade down.
16. Cardinals: Caleb Farley: The Cards need help in their secondary, so Farley is an obvious choice.
17. Raiders: Christian Darrisaw: A big, long, powerful tackle for the Raiders' right side.
18. Dolphins: Najee Harris: Between Chase and Harris, the Dolphins should have a great offense even if Tua struggles.
19. Football Team: Pat Friermuth, tough call between him and Moehrig, but Friermuth is higher rated on my board.
20. Bears: DeVonta Smith: They could grab Jones if they like him, but if not, just take a polished receiver instead.
21. Colts: Rashawn Slater: Their OT of the future, who can also play pretty much any position on the line.
22. Titans: Daviyon Nixon: This is too early for Nixon in reality, but I have him very high on my BB, and the Titans still need to add talent up front.
23. Jets: Elijah Moore: The Jets give Fields an athletic, reliable guy to get the ball to.
24. Steelers: Tyson Campbell: The Steelers want a QB, but the good ones are taken, so they grab a CB to get the most of Big Ben's last season.
25. Jags: Alex Leatherwood: The Jaguars could go a lot of different directions here, but I'd bet on them putting a premium on protecting Lawrence.
26. Browns: Joe Tryon: The Browns need someone other than Garrett to put pressure on the QB.
27. Ravens: Trevon Moehrig: The Ravens land the class's best safety.
28. Saints: Mac Jones: Someone will take him, and I don't think the Saints really want to roll with Hill.
29. Packers: Jackson Carman: A big tackle that will be needed on a thin roster, even if Bakhitari returns early.
30. Bills: Carlos Basham: The Bills' biggest weakness is on the D Line, and Basham is the solution.
31. Chiefs: Jaylen Waddle: More weapons for Mahomes, because why not?  They'd prefer a OT, but they'll likely need to trade up.
32. Bucs: Travis Etienne: Complete the offense by landing a dynamic running back.
 

Edited by Daniel
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2 hours ago, Daniel said:

2. Daviyon Nixon, Iowa: Criminally underrated, collapses the pocket like no one else.  Reminds me of Jeffery Simmons, with less refinement and more power.

I don't see this at all. Simmons dealt with SEC double and triple teams consistently. Nixon hasn't flashed that kind of power for me in any of the cut ups/footage I've watched. Great athlete to be sure, but not at that level with his base strength/power imo. I think he'll impress teams with his pace and agility more than anything.

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Have to disagree on Owusu-Koramoah. That dude is a baller. Absolutely special athlete. Could be a better version of Deion Jones. Also, I don't see Paddy Fisher fitting today's game. Have you watched Davis Mills? I am a huge fan. Best developmental guy in this class.

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23 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Have to disagree on Owusu-Koramoah. That dude is a baller. Absolutely special athlete. Could be a better version of Deion Jones. Also, I don't see Paddy Fisher fitting today's game. Have you watched Davis Mills? I am a huge fan. Best developmental guy in this class.

Yup, me too. Favorite QB that won't go in the 1st round. He has flaws, but refuses to give up and I think he can fix them. 

Edited by Chrissooner49er
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23 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Have to disagree on Owusu-Koramoah. That dude is a  baller. Absolutely special athlete. Could be a better version of Deion Jones. Also, I don't see Paddy Fisher fitting today's game. Have you watched Davis Mills? I am a huge fan. Best developmental guy in this class.

For me JOK will be a tremendous player at next level and he's definitely a special athlete. 
I wouldn't mind if some team would take him as the first LB off the board (although Parsons and Collins are awesome prospects as well).  

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10 minutes ago, MagicMT said:

For me JOK will be a tremendous player at next level and he's definitely a special athlete. 
I wouldn't mind if some team would take him as the first LB off the board (although Parsons and Collins are awesome prospects as well).  

I'd take Parsons before him. But he's close.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 2/10/2021 at 8:36 PM, DreamKid said:

I don't see this at all. Simmons dealt with SEC double and triple teams consistently. Nixon hasn't flashed that kind of power for me in any of the cut ups/footage I've watched. Great athlete to be sure, but not at that level with his base strength/power imo. I think he'll impress teams with his pace and agility more than anything.

Watch Nixon against Michigan St if you want to see him absolutely plow through double and triple teams like they aren't even there.  I understand that I'm in the minority in my love for Nixon.

On 2/10/2021 at 8:50 PM, jrry32 said:

Have to disagree on Owusu-Koramoah. That dude is a baller. Absolutely special athlete. Could be a better version of Deion Jones. Also, I don't see Paddy Fisher fitting today's game. Have you watched Davis Mills? I am a huge fan. Best developmental guy in this class.

I haven't scouted Mills at all.  I'll check him out though.  He got taken earlier than some on my list in TCMD.

On 2/11/2021 at 8:22 PM, MagicMT said:

For me JOK will be a tremendous player at next level and he's definitely a special athlete. 
I wouldn't mind if some team would take him as the first LB off the board (although Parsons and Collins are awesome prospects as well).  

On JOK.  Yall are right that he's a special athlete, and like I said, he's one of the three LBs in this class that has sideline to sideline play ability.  But he doesn't attack defenders the way I like my LBs to do, which is why I have him third.  Depending on what you're looking for, you might be right about him being first on some boards.

 

Boards updated: TEs and Ss added.  Getting around to these slower than I prefer.  Hope to get the RBs and WRs on here this weekend, then the OLs.

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2 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Watch Nixon against Michigan St if you want to see him absolutely plow through double and triple teams like they aren't even there.  I understand that I'm in the minority in my love for Nixon.

I'll give that game a watch. I was disappointed by him in the snaps I saw. Had some absolutely phenomenal snaps, but when he wasn't winning early, he was invisible, way too easy to block and seal/stonewall. So I'd quite enjoy seeing a game where he made a more consistent impact. Tools are clearly there, though.

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2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I'll give that game a watch. I was disappointed by him in the snaps I saw. Had some absolutely phenomenal snaps, but when he wasn't winning early, he was invisible, way too easy to block and seal/stonewall. So I'd quite enjoy seeing a game where he made a more consistent impact. Tools are clearly there, though.

You'll see those too, even in the Michigan St game.  The same guys he tore through in double teams will stonewall him one on one in the middle/late game.  He comes on strong to start, lulls for a while, then finishes strong again.  That tells me it's likely a conditioning thing, which you see from a lot of DLs, and it's a weakness that doesn't worry me too much.

I remembered seeing the same things with Simmons (as a Titans fan, I watched a ton of Simmons tape two years ago), though not as severe, and it's an issue that is ironed out in the pros with conditioning and just rotating DLs more often.  I'm gambling on getting more of the good Nixon than the bad Nixon for that reason, and that's what puts him so high in my estimation.

The flip side is that a guy that wins with power and just by being a stronger, faster, bigger kid than the ones across from him will struggle more in the pros when he's facing better blockers, but he faced some pretty good OLs in the big 10, so I'm not so worried about that.

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1 hour ago, Daniel said:

You'll see those too, even in the Michigan St game.  The same guys he tore through in double teams will stonewall him one on one in the middle/late game.  He comes on strong to start, lulls for a while, then finishes strong again.  That tells me it's likely a conditioning thing, which you see from a lot of DLs, and it's a weakness that doesn't worry me too much.

I remembered seeing the same things with Simmons (as a Titans fan, I watched a ton of Simmons tape two years ago), though not as severe, and it's an issue that is ironed out in the pros with conditioning and just rotating DLs more often.  I'm gambling on getting more of the good Nixon than the bad Nixon for that reason, and that's what puts him so high in my estimation.

The flip side is that a guy that wins with power and just by being a stronger, faster, bigger kid than the ones across from him will struggle more in the pros when he's facing better blockers, but he faced some pretty good OLs in the big 10, so I'm not so worried about that.

Same with Quinnen Williams too, tbh. He got eviscerated by double teams at Bama when he saw them (rarely). He was not my top DT that year. 

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On 2/10/2021 at 3:38 PM, Daniel said:

4. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, ND: Sideline to sideline speed and read ability, but sort of a weak and hesitant tackler.

Don't see that at all, tbh. 

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I told myself I was gonna finish these out, but unfortunately, watching tape on OLs is annoyingly difficult, even in normal years, and the combine is a great equalizer to see how guys move in things like the mirror drill, how quick they are in the cone drills (without bias), and how straight up fast they are if they're tackles, since that actually correlates well to NFL success for some reason.  Don't have any of that this year, so this is where it stays.  I did a quick top 5 for receivers, because that's about as far as I've gotten, and I did the top 9 CBs I've been able to evaluate a while back, but that's all I'm probably doing this year.  Sorry.

Adding a mock draft now, will post it when it's done.

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9 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Always good to see rankings threads, regardless if you agree with them or not. Always appreciate the time and effort. Good job man. 

Normally I would argue that my rankings are right, but with the weird *** season we've had, and the number of players that sat out and games that were cancelled, I don't really trust mine that much this year.

Then there's no combine, and we either have the most athletic class of prospects ever, or liars at pro days.

Throw in the fact that some players had covid, and didn't play up to their full potential when healthy, and you have a perfect storm for trying to get quality rankings.

So thanks, and yes, these are probably bad.

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