There hasn't been a Hall of Fame-worthy RB drafted in over a decade

[scar988]

13 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

The game has changed so much, that passer rating, an already flawed metric, shouldn't be referenced really at all. Especially across era. 

The playoffs are the playoffs. And it's different when it's one guy right at the top of the metric. He's also 8th in adjusted pass yards per attempt, second in completion %, 9th best in interception rate (meaning keeping it low), and tied for 9th in TD rate (meaning throwing more). You're missing that we're talking the playoffs here. If Matt Ryan was a bad playoff quarterback, he wouldn't be anywhere near the top on these stats.

I get this idea that Matt Ryan is a bad quarterback in the playoffs seems to be the narrative. But I'm pointing out that it really isn't true. That's all. Matt Ryan's team has let him down in the playoffs. And if that narrative is why people don't put him in the Hall of Fame? Then I just don't get it. 

 

That's the same point being made here for running backs. If guys like Curtis Martin and Terrell Davis are in the Hall of Fame, why can't guys like Warrick Dunn and Tiki Barber also be in?

[scar988]

2 hours ago, iknowcool said:

FWIW.  Here are the RBs ahead of McCaffrey and Kamara in terms of YFS in their first 4 years (bolded are HOFers, italized made at least 2 Pro Bowls/All-Pros in the 4 years after, underlined objectively fell off in the 4 years after):

#36-#30: Christian McCaffrey, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Marshall Faulk, Tony Dorsett, Roger Craig, Ricky Watters

#29-#20: Chuck Foreman, Ottis Anderson (injury, although he did have a couple of very good seasons after his 4th year), Le'Veon Bell, Arian Foster, Alvin Kamara, William Andrews (injury), Matt Forte, Billy Sims (injury), Curtis Martin, Eddie George

#19-#10: Walter Payton, Todd Gurley (injury), Ricky Williams (fell off for other reasons), Herschel Walker, Ray Rice (fell off for other reasons), Edgerrin James, Earl Campbell, Jamal Lewis, Thurman Thomas, Emmitt Smith

#9-#1: Marcus Allen, Adrian Peterson (it is a guarantee), Barry Sanders, Ezekiel Elliott, Clinton Portis, Chris Johnson, Terrell Davis (injury), Eric Dickerson, LaDainian Tomlinson

Of the 33 backs (not including Zeke/CMC/Kamara), 14 fell off, 2 of them being for off-the-field reasons (although you could argue Rice began to show signs of regression), 5 for injury, and 4 being power backs.  I also think it is worth pointing out the ZBS/Shanny backs on this team (Foster with Kubiak, Davis/Portis with Shanny).  

I mean a Chris Johnson scenario is always possible, although he was never the receiver CMC and Kamara were.  But those two just flat out regressing without a serious injury?  I don't know if I buy it.  The RBs most closely like them (other than Gurley and Rice, who again both fell off for different reasons) typically continue to play well if not outright get better.  Anything can happen but odds are closer to CMC/Kamara staying on their pace than them just becoming shells of their former self.  They are both great athletes with a minimal injury history and they aren't power backs and a lot of their touches come in the pass game which allows them to avoid the same kind of hits others were taking.  And they play in a less physical era of football too.  

I'd be shocked if Adrian Peterson didn't end up breaking Barry Sanders' mark in rushing yards next year. Dude has been bionic.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

10 hours ago, scar988 said:

The playoffs are the playoffs. And it's different when it's one guy right at the top of the metric. He's also 8th in adjusted pass yards per attempt, second in completion %, 9th best in interception rate (meaning keeping it low), and tied for 9th in TD rate (meaning throwing more). You're missing that we're talking the playoffs here. If Matt Ryan was a bad playoff quarterback, he wouldn't be anywhere near the top on these stats.

I get this idea that Matt Ryan is a bad quarterback in the playoffs seems to be the narrative. But I'm pointing out that it really isn't true. That's all. Matt Ryan's team has let him down in the playoffs. And if that narrative is why people don't put him in the Hall of Fame? Then I just don't get it. 

 

That's the same point being made here for running backs. If guys like Curtis Martin and Terrell Davis are in the Hall of Fame, why can't guys like Warrick Dunn and Tiki Barber also be in?

I'm not saying he's a bad QB in the playoffs. I'm saying that using passer rating to cement where he stands in the playoffs isn't a good indicator either way. If you had said DVOA, DYAR, or some other metric that accounts for more important factors than passer rating does that would be a better measuring stick. 

Edited February 17, 2021 by TecmoSuperJoe

[FinSting]

On 2/15/2021 at 5:01 PM, HoboRocket said:

Gurley, at the age of 26, has more TDs than the likes of OJ Simpson, Terrell Davis, Eddie George, Tiki Barber, and Matt Forte achieved in their whole careers.

RB Ron Davenport scored 13 TD's as a rookie for the Dolphins in 1985 which is more than rookie Gurley (10) did for the Rams.

Yet nobody cares about TD's as a metric. Giving the ball to a guy at the 1-yd line is stat padding, not a good way to evaluate a guy's total performance. 

 

[scar988]

On 2/17/2021 at 12:49 AM, TecmoSuperJoe said:

I'm not saying he's a bad QB in the playoffs. I'm saying that using passer rating to cement where he stands in the playoffs isn't a good indicator either way. If you had said DVOA, DYAR, or some other metric that accounts for more important factors than passer rating does that would be a better measuring stick. 

Back when the Falcons had a 1-4 record in the playoffs with Ryan starting, his DVOA was 13th in NFL history. As of 2017, he ranked 8th all time. The idea that he's a bad playoff QB is, well, just a bad take.

[SalvadorsDeli]

"Matt Ryan is one of the best postseason QB's of all time" is about as good an example of someone wildly overcorrecting in the other direction while trying to defend their guy as you'll find. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

23 minutes ago, scar988 said:

Back when the Falcons had a 1-4 record in the playoffs with Ryan starting, his DVOA was 13th in NFL history. As of 2017, he ranked 8th all time. The idea that he's a bad playoff QB is, well, just a bad take.

That first article from 2014 where Ryan is ranked 14th, is only in accordance to the defenses he played against, not necessarily how he performed. There's no way Jake Plummer even at that time was the 5th best QB in postseason history, especially when the defenses he faced up against where 42 ranked. That table just shows that Ryan had the 13th most difficult opponents by DVOA from 1989 to 2013. The next table down which is just DYAR straight up regardless of competition, Ryan doesn't even crack the top 30. 

The more recent article with straight up DVOA is more to the point like you stated where he is ranked 8th. 

Edited February 18, 2021 by TecmoSuperJoe

[SalvadorsDeli]

Matt Ryan during the 2016 postseason: 10.35 Y/A, 9 TD's, 0 INT's

Matt Ryan in all of his other playoff games: 6.5 Y/A, 11 TD's, 7 INT's

It's fair to say that his 2016 playoff run has ended up being underrated because of the way it ended up but I have a hard time saying he's one of the best in playoff history based on that one run when he has been utterly unremarkable outside of it. 

[scar988]

Just now, SalvadorsDeli said:

Matt Ryan during the 2016 postseason: 10.35 Y/A, 9 TD's, 0 INT's

Matt Ryan in all of his other playoff games: 6.5 Y/A, 11 TD's, 7 INT's

It's fair to say that his 2016 playoff run has ended up being underrated because of the way it ended up but I have a hard time saying he's one of the best in playoff history based on that one run when he has been utterly unremarkable outside of it. 

2017 playoff run: 6.49 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INTs (played 2 games)

2016 playoff run: 10.35 T/A, 9 TD, 0 INTS (played 3 games)

2012 playoff run: 8.39 Y/A 6 TD, 3 INTs (played 2 games)

2008-2011: 5.31 Y/A, 3 TD, 4 INTs (played 3 games)

His playoff runs in 08, 10 and 11 were bad. His 2012 one was good. His 2016 one was exceptional. His 2017 one wasn't great, but it wasn't terrible either considering the defenses he faced were No. 5 and 6 in the NFL by DVOA. 

 

[SalvadorsDeli]

1 minute ago, scar988 said:

2017 playoff run: 6.49 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INTs (played 2 games)

2016 playoff run: 10.35 T/A, 9 TD, 0 INTS (played 3 games)

2012 playoff run: 8.39 Y/A 6 TD, 3 INTs (played 2 games)

2008-2011: 5.31 Y/A, 3 TD, 4 INTs (played 3 games)

His playoff runs in 08, 10 and 11 were bad. His 2012 one was good. His 2016 one was exceptional. His 2017 one wasn't great, but it wasn't terrible either considering the defenses he faced were No. 5 and 6 in the NFL by DVOA. 

 

So outside of 2016, the only 'good' playoff run he had was 2012 where he and the Falcons choked away a multi-score 2nd half lead at home in the NFC Championship game because the the offense couldn't score any 2nd half points and Ryan turned the ball over twice. Got it. 

[scar988]

2 minutes ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

So outside of 2016, the only 'good' playoff run he had was 2012 where he and the Falcons choked away a multi-score 2nd half lead at home in the NFC Championship game because the the offense couldn't score any 2nd half points and Ryan turned the ball over twice. Got it. 

And where the refs missed a defensive holding call in the final 2 minutes on Navorro Bowman against Roddy White. Or where the running game couldn't get going in the second half because Michael Turner was hurt and Koetter is terrible at designing run games? And where the defense couldn't cover anyone. The interception thrown was because Roddy White fell down on the route and the defender jumped over it to get the play. Fumble was his fault and he's never fumbled a snap like that since. There's a whole plethora of reasons that they lost that game. But Ryan's one fumble wasn't why. And the interception wasn't his fault when his WR fell down on the route.

[scar988]

Anyway, back to the topic since no one answered my questions:

If guys like Curtis Martin and Terrell Davis are in the Hall of Fame, why can't guys like Warrick Dunn and Tiki Barber also be in? 

[SalvadorsDeli]

6 minutes ago, scar988 said:

And where the refs missed a defensive holding call in the final 2 minutes on Navorro Bowman against Roddy White. Or where the running game couldn't get going in the second half because Michael Turner was hurt and Koetter is terrible at designing run games? And where the defense couldn't cover anyone. The interception thrown was because Roddy White fell down on the route and the defender jumped over it to get the play. Fumble was his fault and he's never fumbled a snap like that since. There's a whole plethora of reasons that they lost that game. But Ryan's one fumble wasn't why. And the interception wasn't his fault when his WR fell down on the route.

Lol this is every one of your posts, on repeat. Sorry man, the rest of us don't have to buy this just because you do. If it's not the running game's fault, it's the defense's. If it' not the defense's fault, it's the playcalling. Or the refs. A supposed easy Hall of Fame QB like Matt Ryan is apparently just a willing passenger in the biggest moments of every game, every year.  

In any case, you'd think 'one of the best postseason QB's of all time' could have done more with that 2017 team where the D gave up 28 points over 2 games and stonewalled that juggernaut Eagles team. But instead we get equivocations about how that actually wasn't as bad as it seems, because for once there's no else to point fingers at. 

Edited February 18, 2021 by SalvadorsDeli

[scar988]

1 minute ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

Lol this is every one of your posts, on repeat. Sorry man, the rest of us don't have to buy this just because you do. If it's not the running game's fault, it's the defense's. If it' not the defense's fault, it's the playcalling. Or the refs. A supposed easy Hall of Fame QB like Matt Ryan is apparently just a willing passenger in the biggest moments of every game, every year.  

Anyways you'd think 'one of the best postseason QB's of all time' could have done more with that 2017 team where the D gave up 28 points over 2 games and stonewalled that juggernaut Eagles team. But instead we get equivocations about how that actually wasn't as bad as it seems, because for once there's no else to point fingers at. 

I'd say 2008-2011 he was objectively bad as a playoff QB. 2017 was a tough year with multiple factors. Wasn't great, but also wasn't terrible. They beat the Rams and Ryan was just fine in that game. The Eagles game was bad for him. But at the same point, the NFL is a team game. And blaming losses on one player is stupid because it takes a whole team to lose a game. It also takes bad luck to blow the leads they have.

[childofpudding]

38 minutes ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

Matt Ryan during the 2016 postseason: 10.35 Y/A, 9 TD's, 0 INT's

Matt Ryan in all of his other playoff games: 6.5 Y/A, 11 TD's, 7 INT's

It's fair to say that his 2016 playoff run has ended up being underrated because of the way it ended up but I have a hard time saying he's one of the best in playoff history based on that one run when he has been utterly unremarkable outside of it. 

Exactly. His sample size is small enough that one incredible playoff run - and yes, it was incredible - skews the overall results. He needs to play a lot more playoff games before we can make any kind of declaration either way about his ability as a playoff quarterback. Prior to 2016 (through 5 playoff games), he was 20th in yds/drive and 30th in pts/drive in the playoffs: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/quarterback-postseason-drive-stats