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If Jaguars draft Lawrence, how fast will they win two Super Bowls?


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1 hour ago, FinSting said:

Fins and Jags are 5-5 lifetime head to head, because the Jags can't handle the Florida heat/humidity. 

And those 5 Ws is because the Dolphins can't handle the jet lag from a trip to London - which is oddly not factored into this discussion.

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10 hours ago, pf9 said:

The other two Florida teams, Miami and Tampa Bay, have now won two Super Bowls. Miami won both of theirs in consecutive seasons in the 1970s, the first capping off the only perfect season in NFL history. Despite his talents, Dan Marino was never able to win it all. Meanwhile the Bucs went 17 seasons in between championships, the last 12 of these being non-playoff seasons. It took the acquisition of Tom Brady, ironically from Miami rival New England, to get their second title.

The Jaguars are unique in that they are in a part of Florida that still retains its Southern characteristics, Miami and Tampa Bay have both been drastically changed by the arrival of people from the North.

So, if the Jaguars take Trevor Lawrence, how fast do you think they will get their second Super Bowl championship?

It comes down to a lot more than just drafting Trevor Lawrence.  The Jaguars were a 1-15 team last year and they have a lot of rebuilding to do with the entire team, not just the QB position.  Hopefully, they will make enough good decisions that they could someday win a Super Bowl in the future.  Until then, we should probably just take it a step at a time before proclaiming that they will win multiple Super Bowls.  Rome wasn't built in a day.  I'll be happy if they win just one.  Anything over and above that is just gravy.

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1 hour ago, ToonPatriot said:

From the Andrew Luck thread to this LOL

This brings up a very interesting counterpoint to the thread...

Trevor Lawrence is considered "the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck" who was "the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning" who was "the best QB prospect since John Elway".

Using history as our barometer, how long did it take this "line of succession" to win their #2?

- Elway: 15 years (drafted 1983, won first in 1997, 2nd in 1998).

- Manning: 17 years (drafted 1998, won first in 2006, 2nd in 2015).

- Luck: N/A (Never made a SB).

Notes and Observations on a Friday morning:

- Elway was 0-3 in Super Bowls prior to his two wins; Only when Terrell Davis was the bellcow in the Mike Shanahan ZBS offense did Elway achieve his championships.

- Manning won his 1st Super Bowl with a post season run from S Bob Sanders that launched his status into the 2007 DPOY; His 2nd SB was alongside a Wade Phillips/Von Miller defense that is widely considered one of the top 5 defenses in NFL History.

- Luck has no SB appearances to his name, largely because the Colts had no meaningful assets outside of TY Hilton during Luck's tenure.

- Elway played for the Broncos his entire career. Luck played for the Colts his entire career. Manning played his career with the Colts and Broncos.

So, the safe assumptions are as follows:

- Trevor Lawrence will not win a SB because a Jaguar is not a horse of any kind. It is a cat of sorts.

- Trevor Lawrence will need a boost from either a defense or run game (or both). He cannot do it on his own.

- A fair milestone to notate would be the year 2040; that would be 19 years from today, which would align with the trendline of odd numbers in the teens for #2 (Elway '15, Manning '17, etc).

- Please note, this trendline might have already failed because Luck in '19 should have continued continuity, leading to Lawrence in '21. With Luck's abrupt retirement in 2019, the highest odds is that Trevor Lawrence will retire immediately after being drafted.

- With the connection between Urban Meyer and Ohio State University, it's more likely that Justin Fields wull be drafted #1.

- With the connection to Charlie Strong and David Ash, it's even more likely that the Jaguars will draft Sam Ehlinger at #1.

This is my analytic review. Please provide feedback.

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10 hours ago, FalconFan13 said:

Agreed although he might win 1 or 2 possibly if everything goes perfectly.  But yeah just being a top 5 to 10 QB doesn't get you a SB Ryan is living proof of that.  Ryan has been legit a top 5 to 8 QB for most of his career and even in his best season where he was the best QB in the league he still lost his SB.  The guy even played almost a perfect game in that SB with a 144+ QB rating and only missing 5 or 6 throws the entire game.   Him making it back to another one is a low chance at this point but to me that proves no matter how great the QB is the team around him has to be just top notch as well or it just won't work.   0

The 1 benefit the Jags have going into this is an established championship winning coach on some levels atleast.  Not having to give up any draft capital anytime soon and actually having extra draft capital to build pieces around him.  Plus 5 years of no massive QB cap hit and 100+ million in cap space to build the team any way you dream or see fit too.    

The jags to me have the perfect storm and setup to make a SB contender if you are knowledgeable enough to know how to build one and honestly if you fail in doing so or atleast making them into a guaranteed playoff contender going forward then you probably shouldn't ever get a 2nd chance anywhere else because you have everything you could wish for as a blank slate there. 

Yup.  Rodgers is exhibit B.   A lot of people think Aaron Rodgers is one of the most talented QBs to play his position and they assumed he would win another one.  He's been in his conference championship game 3 times since 2010 but has yet to get to another SB.

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1 hour ago, Uncle Buck said:

It comes down to a lot more than just drafting Trevor Lawrence.  The Jaguars were a 1-15 team last year and they have a lot of rebuilding to do with the entire team, not just the QB position.  Hopefully, they will make enough good decisions that they could someday win a Super Bowl in the future.  Until then, we should probably just take it a step at a time before proclaiming that they will win multiple Super Bowls.  Rome wasn't built in a day.  I'll be happy if they win just one.  Anything over and above that is just gravy.

Yes, one would think a team that is repeatedly drafting near the top of the draft for years wouldn't struggle to win more games every year.  Jag fans better hope Meyer will change the atmosphere and how things are run up there or drafting this talented young man isn't going to change things any time soon.

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8 minutes ago, Pugger said:

Yes, one would think a team that is repeatedly drafting near the top of the draft for years wouldn't struggle to win more games every year.  Jag fans better hope Meyer will change the atmosphere and how things are run up there or drafting this talented young man isn't going to change things any time soon.

Our QBs have been Luke McCown, Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, Blake Bortles, Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew, and Mike Glennon for the past 8 years.

Until you find a QB, this is what happens.

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Even if he is as good as Mahomes, does he get Hill, Kelce and Reid?

And everyone knows how difficult it is to win a ring when your QB is not on a rookie deal anymore. His best shot is to win 1 from 2021-2024. Mahomes won 1 on his rookie deal. If Lawrence matches that he has done very well. If he wins 2 in the next 4-5 years, he might have Goat potential.

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It's VERY difficult to win a Super Bowl as a #1 pick...because you are going to the worst team in the NFL, so you're at an inherent disadvantage from word go. It's happened before (Manning, Elway, Aikman, Bradshaw, Eli...and Jim Plunkett), but often times it doesn't work out.

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Will they have a top 10 scoring defense that can hold teams to 19 points per game or less in the postseason?

If so, it depends on how many times Lawrence gets paid less than 12.5% of the salary cap. 

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11 hours ago, pf9 said:

The other two Florida teams, Miami and Tampa Bay, have now won two Super Bowls. Miami won both of theirs in consecutive seasons in the 1970s, the first capping off the only perfect season in NFL history. Despite his talents, Dan Marino was never able to win it all. Meanwhile the Bucs went 17 seasons in between championships, the last 12 of these being non-playoff seasons. It took the acquisition of Tom Brady, ironically from Miami rival New England, to get their second title.

The Jaguars are unique in that they are in a part of Florida that still retains its Southern characteristics, Miami and Tampa Bay have both been drastically changed by the arrival of people from the North.

So, if the Jaguars take Trevor Lawrence, how fast do you think they will get their second Super Bowl championship?

What does the second paragraph have to do with anything?

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