If Jaguars draft Lawrence, how fast will they win two Super Bowls?

[Uncle Buck]

On 2/14/2021 at 3:36 AM, JAF-N72EX said:

This was said about the Browns for years whenever they draft a QB. The same was said about the Rams when they drafted Bradford and the same was said about the Colts when they drafted Luck......... and we have seen how all of that turned out. 

Don't you think the Colts could have won a Super Bowl with Luck?  Sure, it can be said they didn't win one with him, but injuries obviously shortened his career.  I think it's probably fair to think that Lawrence has more potential than any of the other QB's in your example.

[Uncle Buck]

On 2/12/2021 at 9:16 AM, Pugger said:

You need more than a top flight QB to win it all.  Most of the time you need a great defense.   A couple of teams have won with pretty pedestrian QBs like the Ravens, Bucs and WFT.  Even Foles has a ring. 

True, but it sure makes it a lot easier to win one when you have everything else in place if you do have a top flight QB.  There are PLENTY of teams in the league with very solid rosters and coaching staffs who have spent years languishing without that one player.  Getting the QB isn't everything, but it could certainly be argued that it is the biggest thing.

[sryan66611]

1 hour ago, Uncle Buck said:

Don't you think the Colts could have won a Super Bowl with Luck?  Sure, it can be said they didn't win one with him, but injuries obviously shortened his career.  I think it's probably fair to think that Lawrence has more potential than any of the other QB's in your example.

Injuries and the main issue was the absolute abomination of a GM that Ryan Grigson was.  He made some really terrible moves and Luck never got O-line help until after he was gone.

[Superduperman]

The answer is never. The Jaguars never win two SBs with him.

[diamondbull424]

On 2/13/2021 at 4:04 PM, Uncle Buck said:

they are one of the few teams in the league who will have one of the small handful of elite NFL quarterbacks.  That fact alone vaults them ahead of most of the rest of the league when it comes to the quest for a Super Bowl win.

When did Trevor Lawrence suddenly become a part of the NFL’s elite QBs? I feel like I’ve missed him even throwing an NFL pass to determine such.

For all we know he becomes a Matthew Stafford level player that is never truly able to put it all together to be a truly elite NFL QB.

Its also not like the league is struggling with QB play. Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill (no order) are all QBs that have displayed top 10-12 type QB ability/potential already and are still young enough to continue producing at a high level for a good while.

Then you’ve got the elder statesman like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady who haven’t shown that they’re no longer top 10 QBs, Rodgers having won the MVP and Brady a SB. Matt Ryan could probably be placed in this category as well, but on the lower end... and he’s fallen out of the top 10, so it’s not a perfect match, but he could still get back into the top 10 with a good year.

Then you’ve got other young QBs like Burrow, Fields, Wilson, Tua, Lance, and Love who could have some potential moving forward.
————

It is not anywhere NEAR a fact that Trevor Lawrence, regardless of his level as a prospect, is guaranteed to be an elite NFL QB... and before you say you haven’t made such a claim, you called it a fact that he would rise to elite status. He could succeed and still not ever be a top 5 NFL QB simply be virtue of the other talent in the league.

[Uncle Buck]

1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said:

When did Trevor Lawrence suddenly become a part of the NFL’s elite QBs? I feel like I’ve missed him even throwing an NFL pass to determine such.

For all we know he becomes a Matthew Stafford level player that is never truly able to put it all together to be a truly elite NFL QB.

Its also not like the league is struggling with QB play. Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill (no order) are all QBs that have displayed top 10-12 type QB ability/potential already and are still young enough to continue producing at a high level for a good while.

Then you’ve got the elder statesman like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady who haven’t shown that they’re no longer top 10 QBs, Rodgers having won the MVP and Brady a SB. Matt Ryan could probably be placed in this category as well, but on the lower end... and he’s fallen out of the top 10, so it’s not a perfect match, but he could still get back into the top 10 with a good year.

Then you’ve got other young QBs like Burrow, Fields, Wilson, Tua, Lance, and Love who could have some potential moving forward.
————

It is not anywhere NEAR a fact that Trevor Lawrence, regardless of his level as a prospect, is guaranteed to be an elite NFL QB... and before you say you haven’t made such a claim, you called it a fact that he would rise to elite status. He could succeed and still not ever be a top 5 NFL QB simply be virtue of the other talent in the league.

Obviously, he hasn't played in the NFL yet, so he isn't elite.  I like his chances though - better than most.

[Chargers]

On 2/14/2021 at 7:27 AM, Danger said:

Giants D-Line* did it

COUGH

Stop it. I'm a a big Eli hater and he was without question a big part of why they won both SBs. Both post-season runs were fantastic. 

[Danger]

32 minutes ago, Chargers said:

Stop it. I'm a a big Eli hater and he was without question a big part of why they won both SBs. Both post-season runs were fantastic. 

He wasn't the biggest reason, but in 2011 he earned his wins. I'll give him that. In 2007 he had the miracle play of miracle plays in the Super Bowl. Outside of that? He was carried that year.

[ET80]

2 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

It is not anywhere NEAR a fact that Trevor Lawrence, regardless of his level as a prospect, is guaranteed to be an elite NFL QB... and before you say you haven’t made such a claim, you called it a fact that he would rise to elite status. He could succeed and still not ever be a top 5 NFL QB simply be virtue of the other talent in the league.

I personally think Andrew Luck is a very cautionary tale we need to go over before we crown any QB coming from college.

For people to create threads such as this and respond to said thread about how Lawrence is already elite - it's ignoring the "good but not quite great" career of the noble Captain Andrew Luck. Was Luck a bust? No, not at all. Was he elite? No, not at all. He was very good, a franchise QB in his own right. But that wasn't the expectations from the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning. Early retirement or not - Luck really didn't hit that top 3-5 mark everyone was projecting for him as he wrapped up his career at Stanford. 

So, Lawrence might reach those expectations - or he might not. Can't be too sure, even on these sure things.

[diamondbull424]

5 hours ago, ET80 said:

I personally think Andrew Luck is a very cautionary tale we need to go over before we crown any QB coming from college.

For people to create threads such as this and respond to said thread about how Lawrence is already elite - it's ignoring the "good but not quite great" career of the noble Captain Andrew Luck. Was Luck a bust? No, not at all. Was he elite? No, not at all. He was very good, a franchise QB in his own right. But that wasn't the expectations from the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning. Early retirement or not - Luck really didn't hit that top 3-5 mark everyone was projecting for him as he wrapped up his career at Stanford. 

So, Lawrence might reach those expectations - or he might not. Can't be too sure, even on these sure things.

Exactly. Luck is absolutely the perfect point. Throw in the fact that Lawrence is going to a worse organization historically than what the Colts were and the fact that the NFL (heck, we might as well say the AFC) is absolutely loaded with young QBs right now and two SBs will be even a challenge for Mahomes to reach... and he’s already got a ring to his credit... and he’s actual NFL elite.

[KimuraGod]

5 hours ago, ET80 said:

I personally think Andrew Luck is a very cautionary tale we need to go over before we crown any QB coming from college.

For people to create threads such as this and respond to said thread about how Lawrence is already elite - it's ignoring the "good but not quite great" career of the noble Captain Andrew Luck. Was Luck a bust? No, not at all. Was he elite? No, not at all. He was very good, a franchise QB in his own right. But that wasn't the expectations from the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning. Early retirement or not - Luck really didn't hit that top 3-5 mark everyone was projecting for him as he wrapped up his career at Stanford. 

So, Lawrence might reach those expectations - or he might not. Can't be too sure, even on these sure things.

I think it’s more the reason to absolute dedicate huge resources to the o-line etc and protect your investment properly. Luck had a bad o-line for the most part.

Will the Jags look after Lawerence?!? Only time will tell but I suspect they will. They have a lot of picks and huge cap room.
 

As for Lawrence winning two super bowls. It’s ironic that he’s compared to Manning and Luck. The same great Peyton one of the best of all time only won 2 Super Bowls with just 1 with Indy. And Luck never even got to a SB. 

[ET80]

2 hours ago, xenajets said:

As for Lawrence winning two super bowls. It’s ironic that he’s compared to Manning and Luck. The same great Peyton one of the best of all time only won 2 Super Bowls with just 1 with Indy. And Luck never even got to a SB. 

As stated earlier, both Manning and Luck were preceded by John Elway - who took 17 years to win back to back, with Terrell Davis providing a lot of help.

[Uncle Buck]

12 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Its also not like the league is struggling with QB play. Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill (no order) are all QBs that have displayed top 10-12 type QB ability/potential already and are still young enough to continue producing at a high level for a good while.

Really?  That's not the league I'm familiar with.  Your team may have a quarterback you like.  I'm happy for you.  How long has that been the case with the Ravens?  Playoff Flacco was a fun story, but let's be honest, he wasn't exactly one of the all time greats.  The Ravens aren't alone though.  I'm coming from the perspective as a former fan of the Vikings and now the Jaguars.  Since 2010, the following starting quarterbacks have started games for these two teams:

Brett Favre
Tarvaris Jackson
Joe Webb
Christian Ponder
Donovan McNabb
Matt Cassel
Josh Freeman
Teddy Bridgewater
Sam Bradford
Case Keenum
Kirk Cousins

David Garrard
Todd Bouman
Trent Edwards
Luke McCown
Blaine Gabbert
Chad Henne
Blake Bortles
Cody Kessler
Gardner Minshew
Nick Foles
Mike Glennon
Jake Luton

The Vikings and Jaguars are not alone in this struggle.  There are PLENTY of teams in the league who ARE "struggling with quarterback play" and would (or should) want to upgrade the position.  The list encompasses almost half of the league.  I'd put the following teams on that list.

New England Patriots
New York Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers
Indianapolis Colts
Denver Broncos
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Football Team
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
San Francisco 49ers

You took issue with my use of the word "fact."  Well here are a couple of facts that are irrefutable: 

- There are not enough good quarterbacks to go around.
- The teams listed above would love to be in the position to draft Trevor Lawrence.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Uncle Buck

[ET80]

18 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

Really?  That's not the league I'm familiar with.  Your team may have a quarterback you like.  I'm happy for you.  How long has that been the case with the Ravens?  Playoff Flacco was a fun story, but let's be honest, he wasn't exactly one of the all time greats.  The Ravens aren't alone though.  I'm coming from the perspective as a former fan of the Vikings and now the Jaguars.  Since 2010, the following starting quarterbacks have started games for these two teams:

Brett Favre
Tarvaris Jackson
Joe Webb
Christian Ponder
Donovan McNabb
Matt Cassel
Josh Freeman
Teddy Bridgewater
Sam Bradford
Case Keenum
Kirk Cousins

David Garrard
Todd Bouman
Trent Edwards
Luke McCown
Blaine Gabbert
Chad Henne
Blake Bortles
Cody Kessler
Gardner Minshew
Nick Foles
Mike Glennon
Jake Luton

The Vikings and Jaguars are not alone in this struggle.  There are PLENTY of teams in the league who ARE "struggling with quarterback play" and would (or should) want to upgrade the position.  The list encompasses almost half of the league.  I'd put the following teams on that list.

New England Patriots
New York Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers
Indianapolis Colts
Denver Broncos
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Football Team
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
San Francisco 49ers

You took issue with my use of the word "fact."  One thing IS a fact.  There are not enough good quarterbacks to go around, and there are quite a few teams right now who would love to be in position to draft Trevor Lawrence.

I don't think he's trying to say "there's enough for every team". Moreso, I interpreted his statement as "there's a line behind Mahomes, Trevor doesn't jump that line..."

Which I agree with, for the most part.

[Uncle Buck]

1 minute ago, ET80 said:

I don't think he's trying to say "there's enough for every team". Moreso, I interpreted his statement as "there's a line behind Mahomes, Trevor doesn't jump that line..."

Which I agree with, for the most part.

I would agree about Mahomes.  I have never said that Trevor Lawrence is going to hit the ground running to the point where he will jump ahead of Patrick Mahomes.  That would be a ridiculous claim and the thought has never even crossed my mind.  My thinking is that I'd like to see the Jaguars go 8-8 next year with the addition of not only Trevor, but a new coaching staff and quite a few new players added through free agency and the draft.  In 2022, hopefully we see a playoff birth.  I'd love to see the Jaguars get to the Super Bowl and win it, but you will not see any post on the site where I have proclaimed them to be automatic multiple Super Bowl winners.