If Jaguars draft Lawrence, how fast will they win two Super Bowls?

[Pugger]

14 hours ago, Uncle Buck said:

True, but it sure makes it a lot easier to win one when you have everything else in place if you do have a top flight QB.  There are PLENTY of teams in the league with very solid rosters and coaching staffs who have spent years languishing without that one player.  Getting the QB isn't everything, but it could certainly be argued that it is the biggest thing.

Yes, getting the QB is the biggest thing but GB is a prime example that you need more than that.  We've been in the playoffs a ton but not much to show for it these past 10 seasons.  I seriously doubt Tampa would have won this year without that defense.  In the NFCC game it was their defense (along with our screwups) that enabled them to win that game and ultimately the SB.  They bottled Mahomes up pretty good too.

[Uncle Buck]

Just now, Pugger said:

Yes, getting the QB is the biggest thing but GB is a prime example that you need more than that.  We've been in the playoffs a ton but not much to show for it these past 10 seasons.  I seriously doubt Tampa would have won this year without that defense.  In the NFCC game it was their defense (along with our screwups) that enabled them to win that game and ultimately the SB.  They bottled Mahomes up pretty good too.

It sounds like we are on the same page on this, Pugger.  It's definitely a team sport.
 

[ET80]

10 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

I would agree about Mahomes.  I have never said that Trevor Lawrence is going to hit the ground running to the point where he will jump ahead of Patrick Mahomes.  That would be a ridiculous claim and the thought has never even crossed my mind.  My thinking is that I'd like to see the Jaguars go 8-8 next year with the addition of not only Trevor, but a new coaching staff and quite a few new players added through free agency and the draft.  In 2022, hopefully we see a playoff birth.  I'd love to see the Jaguars get to the Super Bowl and win it, but you will not see any post on the site where I have proclaimed them to be automatic multiple Super Bowl winners. 

Word for word, you're not saying that - but you're coming pretty darn close to saying it:

On 2/13/2021 at 3:04 PM, Uncle Buck said:

While it is far too early to be predicting multiple championships for the Jaguars, one thing looks fairly certain: they are one of the few teams in the league who will have one of the small handful of elite NFL quarterbacks.  That fact alone vaults them ahead of most of the rest of the league when it comes to the quest for a Super Bowl win.

You're seriously projecting here, and you're projecting with a guy who has done nothing in the NFL so far. And it's not a small handful of your looking at 10-12 guys ahead of him in the pecking order as-is. Sure, he's not vaulting Mahomes - what about Lawrence puts him ahead of Watson? Murray? Herbert? Allen? Jackson? 

These guys have similar resumes as Lawrence coming out of college (maybe not NCs, but none of them played on teams as good as Clemson - save for Watson). They've had their ups and downs, but they've all had great starts to their careers - but to date, they've played in a combined zero AFC/NFC title games.

Why is that you're projecting Lawrence to do what QB #2-10 have a tough time doing regularly - and in some cases, ever?

[Uncle Buck]

1 minute ago, ET80 said:

Word for word, you're not saying that - but you're coming pretty darn close to saying it:

You're seriously projecting here, and you're projecting with a guy who has done nothing in the NFL so far. And it's not a small handful of your looking at 10-12 guys ahead of him in the pecking order as-is. Sure, he's not vaulting Mahomes - what about Lawrence puts him ahead of Watson? Murray? Herbert? Allen? Jackson? 

These guys have similar resumes as Lawrence coming out of college (maybe not NCs, but none of them played on teams as good as Clemson - save for Watson). They've had their ups and downs, but they've all had great starts to their careers - but to date, they've played in a combined zero AFC/NFC title games.

Why is that you're projecting Lawrence to do what QB #2-10 have a tough time doing regularly - and in some cases, ever?

OK, I guess if you look at it that way I was a little overzealous.  When I wrote it, however, I was thinking about all the teams on the list who don't have good QB's.  I have to admit to drinking a little bit of Kool-aid when I believe that Lawrence has the potential to become a Top 5 quarterback in a few years, but it's not like there is much not to like about the kid.  Will he have competition when he gets to the NFL?  Sure, but he will provide a decent amount of competition to the rest of them too.

[ET80]

38 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

I have to admit to drinking a little bit of Kool-aid when I believe that Lawrence has the potential to become a Top 5 quarterback in a few years, but it's not like there is much not to like about the kid.  Will he have competition when he gets to the NFL?  Sure, but he will provide a decent amount of competition to the rest of them too.

There wasn't much to dislike with Sam Darnold, either... People figured he would be elite, based on college production, mechanics, athleticism and intangibles:

https://www.conquestchronicles.com/2018/4/23/17269468/2018-nfl-draft-scouting-reports-sam-darnold-qb-usc

Read this, tell me if any of this lines up with what we know about Darnold. We can rattle off WHY this happened, but it's irrelevant to this discussion. It happened, a can't miss guy ...missed.

I heard a very interesting stat yesterday - from 2009 to 2016, not a single QB drafted in the 1st is still on their original team. If you consider the future fates of Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky, you can include the 2017 class and the number goes to one (Mahomes). 2018 will probably add to that "Mahomes" list, as Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield will probably bring the total to four (Darnold and Josh Rosen are gone). 2019? Yeah, add Kyler - Dwayne Haskins is already out and Danny Jones is soon to follow. Hell 2020 might lose Tua already.

So - in the last 10 years of drafting QBs in the first, 2009 to 2019 - you have 5 QBs stick around with the original team that drafted them. (Taking a leap of faith on Mayfield and Murray, if we're being honest). Pick 1.1 and 1.2 in 2015 are now backups, pick 1.1 and 1.2 in 2016 were both traded this off-season - so it's not pedigree either, blue chip players from their respective drafts are not immune to this.

So, it's not even guarenteed Lawrence will be in Jacksonville for 10 years... let alone win two Super Bowls... let alone win one Super Bowl... let alone MAKE a Super Bowl... let alone make a Conference Championship.

This is more fact than what you're saying. 

[Uncle Buck]

2 minutes ago, ET80 said:

There wasn't much to dislike with Sam Darnold, either... People figured he would be elite, based on college production, mechanics, athleticism and intangibles:

https://www.conquestchronicles.com/2018/4/23/17269468/2018-nfl-draft-scouting-reports-sam-darnold-qb-usc

Read this, tell me if any of this lines up with what we know about Darnold. We can rattle off WHY this happened, but it's irrelevant to this discussion. It happened, a can't miss guy ...missed.

I heard a very interesting stat yesterday - from 2009 to 2016, not a single QB drafted in the 1st is still on their original team. If you consider the future fates of Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky, you can include the 2017 class and the number goes to one (Mahomes). 2018 will probably add to that "Mahomes" list, as Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield will probably bring the total to four (Darnold and Josh Rosen are gone). 2019? Yeah, add Kyler - Dwayne Haskins is already out and Danny Jones is soon to follow. Hell 2020 might lose Tua already.

So - in the last 10 years of drafting QBs in the first, 2009 to 2019 - you have 5 QBs stick around with the original team that drafted them. 

So, it's not even guarenteed Lawrence will be in Jacksonville for 10 years, let alone win two Super Bowls, let alone win one Super Bowl, let alone make a Super Bowl...

This is more fact than what you're saying. 

OK, so what's your point though?  Should we never get excited about any prospect then?  Would you say that Darnold was as good of a prospect as Trevor Lawrence?  I sure wouldn't.  We could do a poll in the comparisons forum.  What do you think the results would be?  Maybe it would prove that I'm in the minority.  I'm still a huge Tim Tebow fan, so it wouldn't be the first time I was in the minority with my thinking when it comes to quarterbacks.  At the same time, as a fan of a division rival team, are you totally unphased by the thought that the Jaguars will be going from Gardner Minshew to Trevor Lawrence as their quarterback?  After all, nothing is guaranteed.

[ET80]

17 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

OK, so what's your point though?  Should we never get excited about any prospect then? 

My point is you should hold off on the anointing oil. We are literally in a thread asking when a player who has yet to take a practice rep at the NFL level is going to win his SECOND Super Bowl (as if the first is guarenteed). Then you're doubling down by saying it's a foregone conclusion said QB is going to be elite and that's going to put him in the Super Bowl discussion, ignoring that there are a lot of young, proven QBs in the league who have yet to win a playoff game. 

Do you, get excited however you choose to get excited - but don't go wondering why people don't agree with you, and take it into consideration when they back their points up with facts.

17 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

Would you say that Darnold was as good of a prospect as Trevor Lawrence?  I sure wouldn't.  We could do a poll in the comparisons forum.  What do you think the results would be? 

You're getting lost in the names, not the demonstration - Trevor Lawrence would absolutely win in a poll, but he could bust out even worse than Darnold did as a pro. Nobody knows, despite what a Comparisons thread would say.

That literally proves nothing.

17 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

I'm still a huge Tim Tebow fan, so it wouldn't be the first time I was in the minority with my thinking when it comes to quarterbacks.

That's fine, but don't get up in arms when people call that out. That's the unwritten rule of being contrarian, nobody is going to agree with you, and they're not going to do it in silence.

17 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

At the same time, as a fan of a division rival team, are you totally unphased by the thought that the Jaguars will be going from Gardner Minshew to Trevor Lawrence as their quarterback?  After all, nothing is guaranteed.

1. Not a fan of a division rival. I think I've been pretty up front about that lately.

2. I've seen the Jaguars ruin MANY QBs, and I have no idea what Urban Meyer is at the pro level (he could be another Chip Kelly/Bill O'Brien, nobody can really say). 

So - if I'm being honest - not really.

[Uncle Buck]

2 minutes ago, ET80 said:

My point is you should hold off on the anointing oil. We are literally in a thread asking when a player who has yet to take a practice rep at the NFL level is going to win his SECOND Super Bowl (as if the first is guarenteed). Then you're doubling down by saying it's a foregone conclusion said QB is going to be elite and that's going to put him in the Super Bowl discussion, ignoring that there are a lot of young, proven QBs in the league who have yet to win a playoff game. 

Do you, get excited however you choose to get excited - but don't go wondering why people don't agree with you, and take it into consideration when they back their points up with facts.

You're getting lost in the names, not the demonstration - Trevor Lawrence would absolutely win in a poll, but he could bust out even worse than Darnold did as a pro. Nobody knows, despite what a Comparisons thread would say.

That literally proves nothing.

That's fine, but don't get up in arms when people call that out. That's the unwritten rule of being contrarian, nobody is going to agree with you, and they're not going to do it in silence.

1. Not a fan of a division rival. I think I've been pretty up front about that lately.

2. I've seen the Jaguars ruin MANY QBs, and I have no idea what Urban Meyer is at the pro level (he could be another Chip Kelly/Bill O'Brien, nobody can really say). 

So - if I'm being honest - not really.

I think there IS a difference here.  After my saying that he is going to be elite (when, admittedly, I should have prefaced the statement with the word "potentially" in my projections) you are lumping me in with a guy who predicted that the Jaguars are destined to win multiple Super Bowls.  That was not my train of thought.  In fact, if you go back in the thread, you will see that I was one of the people trying to put the brakes on the hype train by saying I'd just be happy if we win one Super Bowl when all is said and done.

What I will admit to, however, is that I do believe a quarterback with Lawrence's potential could potentially put the Jaguars in the conversation to win a Super Bowl for a long time.  That doesn't mean they will win multiple times, or even once, but at least they should be in the conversation with teams who will be there in the post season competing, which is something they haven't been able to say for a long, long time. 

I think it's fair to say the same thing about the Texans.  I know they are a dumpster fire in many respects right now as a result of the way they are being run, but the mere presence of Deshaun Watson means that it wouldn't take near as much to change direction and right the ship as it would if they had a merely average quarterback, such as Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, etc.  For their sake, I hope they can mend the fences with Watson and find a way to keep him around.

As far as being called out by other fans on my opinions, I don't get up in arms.  I enjoy the conversation and the exchange of opinions.  When it comes to Tebow, I actually enjoy being a fly in the ointment for all the Tebow haters out there.  They can say what they want about his throwing motion and his stats, but they cannot deny that in his first year as a starter he took over a 1-4 team, led them to the playoffs, and got a playoff win.  (I love that!)

Ultimately, I'll be willing to make a deal with you.  I'll hold off on the annointing oil if you agree to hold off on putting me up there with the people who say it is a foregone conclusion that the Jaguars are automatically going to win multiple Super Bowls.  I STILL won't say that about any team - even the Chiefs, and I'm a big Patrick Mahomes fan.    

[ET80]

5 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

Ultimately, I'll be willing to make a deal with you.  I'll hold off on the annointing oil if you agree to hold off on putting me up there with the people who say it is a foregone conclusion that the Jaguars are automatically going to win multiple Super Bowls.  I STILL won't say that about any team - even the Chiefs, and I'm a big Patrick Mahomes fan. 

Deal. 😁

[Uncle Buck]

3 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Deal. 😁

That was an awesome movie.

[diamondbull424]

6 hours ago, Uncle Buck said:

Really?  That's not the league I'm familiar with.  Your team may have a quarterback you like.  I'm happy for you.  How long has that been the case with the Ravens?  Playoff Flacco was a fun story, but let's be honest, he wasn't exactly one of the all time greats.  The Ravens aren't alone though.  I'm coming from the perspective as a former fan of the Vikings and now the Jaguars.  Since 2010, the following starting quarterbacks have started games for these two teams:

You misinterpreted.

10 years ago the number of teams with QBs that could be argued as “elite” were far smaller and encompassed by older options than now.

1) Aaron Rodgers, 2) Tom Brady, 3) Drew Brees, 4) Peyton Manning. Then someone could MAYBE make the case for 5) Big Ben, 6) Matt Ryan, and 7) Phillip Rivers.

Anything below that line saw a steep decline in QB play. Usually filled with past their prime veteran QBs that were on their last legs.

Wheras in the current league that line has blurred because the QB play across the league has elevated with guys that are both athletes and operating at high enough QB levels.

Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill.

Outside of Mahomes this line is sort of blurred because each of these guys have had (or are likely to have) their names in the MVP discussion at some point or another.

Then the drop (if there is one) from the QB play above and what you get from Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins... that drop isn’t nearly as far as a decade ago.

Then there’s the strong enough possibility that Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa develop to further blur the line. Not to mention that Carson Wentz could be redeemed and put himself back on a franchise QB level play.

Then even after all that even in Trevor Lawrence draft class, it’s not as though he’s the only QB with elite potential. All of the big 3 options have some potential- regardless of if Lawrence has the most potential of the bunch.

However just like we saw with Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson... where they all were thought to have the highest bust potentials within their respective QB drafts, yet have been the best of the bunch... we can’t rule out a guy like Trey Lance.
————

Cam Newton last year was a bottom 5 QB. Yet in 2010 if we take the same caliber of Newton, he’s perhaps on that Flacco/Eli tier of QB.

So when I see a situation where about 2/3 of the league can feel decently good about their QB play... I certainly don’t see it as a situation where the league is “struggling” with the position. Especially not in comparison to where the league was just a decade  or so ago.

Trevor Lawrence is good, but so was Joe Burrow last year... and he wasn’t even a top half QB in the league. Even if Lawrence is immediately as good as Justin Herbert showed in 2020 (possibly the greatest rookie QB season of all time), as we saw with Herbert while on a bad team... that still only got him to a 7-9 record.

[Uncle Buck]

1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said:

Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill.

Then the drop (if there is one) from the QB play above and what you get from Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins... that drop isn’t nearly as far as a decade ago.

 

I agree with pretty much everything you said except for a couple of things.  I'd probably put a tier just under the "elite" for those who have proven themselves to be "very, very good."  I'd bring Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan up to this tier and also include Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and Ryan Tannehill.  These are QB's who are good enough to win a Super Bowl, but they need to have a slightly better, more complete roster around them than the top tier QB's.  It sounds like Justin Herbert could probably make it to this tier, but I haven't seen him play yet.  I understand that he had a good rookie season, but is he already on the level of these guys?  If he is, that's awesome for the Chargers.  I just don't know.  I'd also likely put Joe Burrow on whatever tier Herbert is on because he was looking very good until he got hurt.  I'd drop Kyler Murray a tier down, but I'm not adamant about it.  I'm just not as big of a believer in him as some people are.  Finally, I'd put Baker Mayfield on any tier that Murray is on at this point.

Based on this, we have:

Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Rodgers, Wilson, and Brady on the Elite Tier.

Jackson, Tannehill, Mayfield, Stafford, Ryan, Murray, Herbert, and Burrow on the Very, Very Good Tier.

The rest of the league is looking for a better quarterback and know that they more than likely won't be able to win a Super Bowl until they find a better one then they currently have.

We also have to keep in mind that these tiers are not set in stone either.  The players involved will move up or down depending on different factors.  Older guys like Brady, Rodgers and Wilson will be moving down as father time inevitably catches up to them, and players like Jackson, Herbert and Burrow probably haven't reached their ceilings and could very well move up to the elite. 

When it comes to Trevor Lawrence, I know he hasn't taken a snap in the league yet, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect him to reach the Very, Very Good Tier by at least his second year in the league.  Could he disappoint?  Sure.  Could he end up being a total bust?  Yeah, I guess, if you want to include that possibility.  We could have said the same thing about LeBron James before he got to the NBA too, but sometimes the eye test is so clear that you can almost rule out the possibility of a player busting for anything other than factors that are completely out of his control such as serious injury, complete team incompetence, etc. 

 

 

Edited February 21, 2021 by Uncle Buck

[sammymvpknight]

7 hours ago, ET80 said:

My point is you should hold off on the anointing oil. We are literally in a thread asking when a player who has yet to take a practice rep at the NFL level is going to win his SECOND Super Bowl (as if the first is guarenteed). Then you're doubling down by saying it's a foregone conclusion said QB is going to be elite and that's going to put him in the Super Bowl discussion, ignoring that there are a lot of young, proven QBs in the league who have yet to win a playoff game. 

Do you, get excited however you choose to get excited - but don't go wondering why people don't agree with you, and take it into consideration when they back their points up with facts.

You're getting lost in the names, not the demonstration - Trevor Lawrence would absolutely win in a poll, but he could bust out even worse than Darnold did as a pro. Nobody knows, despite what a Comparisons thread would say.

That literally proves nothing.

That's fine, but don't get up in arms when people call that out. That's the unwritten rule of being contrarian, nobody is going to agree with you, and they're not going to do it in silence.

1. Not a fan of a division rival. I think I've been pretty up front about that lately.

2. I've seen the Jaguars ruin MANY QBs, and I have no idea what Urban Meyer is at the pro level (he could be another Chip Kelly/Bill O'Brien, nobody can really say). 

So - if I'm being honest - not really.

I’m going to go so far in saying that there is literally no chance that Lawrence could be worse than Darnold. He’s infinitely better as a prospect...like it’s not close...not in the same stratosphere. If Lawrence isn’t a perennial top 10 QB by year 2, honestly, I’ll be really disappointed. It would take me being REALLY wrong about Lawrence’s mental makeup/work ethic or injury. Of course he COULD bust. Peyton Manning and John Elway could have also busted...but for a handful or prospects over the past decades, you can say it’s pretty unlikely unless something catastrophic happens. 

[Freeman McToon]

@Uncle Buck for a guy who just jumped ship from one franchise to another, you seem to do a lot of overcompensating to make up for lost time with your new squad. Save for that Cinderella run to the AFCCG a few seasons ago, that franchise has done nothing since the Coughlin era. Pump the brakes on waving those teal, gold, & black pom-poms and the "guarantees" that come with it and let it all play out. As a former Vikings fan who I'm assuming witnessed at least 1 Vikings SB loss, you should know as well as anyone not a darn thing is guaranteed in this league for any one franchise.

I can already see over the horizon a thread coming from you arguing that Mark Brunell was a top 5 QB in the 90s lol

[Uncle Buck]

2 minutes ago, Freeman McToon said:

@Uncle Buck for a guy who just jumped ship from one franchise to another, you seem to do a lot of overcompensating to make up for lost time with your new squad. Save for that Cinderella run to the AFCCG a few seasons ago, that franchise has done nothing since the Coughlin era. Pump the brakes on waving those teal, gold, & black pom-poms and the "guarantees" that come with it and let it all play out. As a former Vikings fan who I'm assuming witnessed at least 1 Vikings SB loss, you should know as well as anyone not a darn thing is guaranteed in this league for any one franchise.

I can already see over the horizon a thread coming from you arguing that Mark Brunell was a top 5 QB in the 90s lol

Hahaha!  Nah, I'm not much of a Brunell historian at all.  I'm just a guy who is excited about the prospects that my change of scenery have brought me.  Even though the Jags haven't been a very successful franchise in the past, it really has been a breath of fresh air and a jump start to my love for the game in general.  I'll admit to probably being a little over-hyped at this point, but it's a lot of fun dealing with a team that has some decent pieces already in place, a bunch of quality draft picks, a ton of salary cap money, and a new coaching staff. 

You're right about my time with the Vikings.  I saw all four Super Bowl losses as well as five NFCCG losses.  I know full well that nothing is ever guaranteed.  This is just that time of the year when we can all dream about our team making big strides for the upcoming season, and I'm going to cling to the dream as long as I can.