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What does a team “going all in” look like to you?


CP3MVP

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If I were to describe a team as going all-in, that's going have to involve some level of spending future assets to maximize how competitive your team is now. Whether that's trading draft picks for established players, backloading deals to sign extra free agents, or restructures/extensions to add void years or push back cap hits to get the most out of the cap this year. The Rams are the obvious peak example of this. They care little for draft picks compared to established talent. They've been on a 3 year run of thinking they can win a superbowl this year, and they act to try to maximize those odds. They've been successful enough to not blame them. The Eagles would be more of a failed example, where they've tried to do this since their first superbowl win, and just haven't made the right choices around it. The Rams still drafting well without high picks, while the Eagles can't draft well with anything, it seems, makes a big difference.

Otherwise, the most common examples would be teams with aging QBs. The biggest reason the Pats fell off is obviously Brady leaving, but a big part of why they couldn't do more is that 2020 was when they paid for trying to go all-in the preceding seasons. The Pats were still paying Tom Brady like $15M against the cap last year, because they tried to hold that team together through 2019, presumably thinking Tom was about done. The Saints have been doing the same thing, squeezing every dollar they can to keep as much talent together prior to Brees retiring. Next year may well be the Saints equivalent of the 2020 Pats, paying due on the success they basically took a loan out for. The Peyton Broncos were probably an example of this, though I don't recall their cap situation that well, they were crazy aggressive those waning years.

I don't think 2020 Tampa is a good example though, because none of their moves really hurt the team long term. They didn't maximize their shot this year by sacrificing future assets, they just used the resources they had built up from not being good for awhile. They had a ton of cap space because when you don't make the playoffs for 12 years, who are you really giving big money too. And they had a run of really good mid to high draft picks. They saw Brady and got him, they used all the cap space they had built up, and their draft picks all kind of peaked around this time too (Evans, Vea, White, and Wirfs were all huge pieces to the run, and all were mid-to-high firsts), and capitalized. Tampa is an example of what teams like Cleveland or Indy have been dreaming about in recent years. A crap ton of cap space, a bunch of high picks, and you try to grab the QB to put it all together. But that's really just normal team building for a previously bad team, I would argue. They certainly had a chunk of old players, but it isn't like Gronk or Brown or Brady or Suh were high risk moves, or anything. They just had the cap space and motivation for them all. But if this had all failed, for Tampa. If Brady and Gronk were washed, Brown blew up, Fournette did nothing, etc., the team lost one year and that was it. If they had collapsed this year, there would've been no long term costs to it. Could let them all walk, draft a rookie, and really only be one year behind where they would've been otherwise.

Now, 2021 Tampa has an opportunity to be a prime example of going all-in. Success breeds cost, and the key pieces that happen to be coming up this year are going to want to be paid. And they 100% don't have the cap space to keep everyone together. Godwin and Barrett alone would eat up more than what they have left, let alone Gronk and Brown and David and Suh and Fournette. But they have plenty of ability to restructure and extend guys, and make a crap ton of room if they want to go all-in on another Brady year. You could bring literally everyone back, but it would involve backloading Godwin and Barrett, restructuring Evans and Marpet, maybe extending Smith or Jensen. THAT would be a team going all-in.

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8 hours ago, CP3MVP said:

The “all in” moves were 

-Signing LF off the scrap heap after he was released by the worst team in football for peanuts. He was a below average back the whole season and turned it on in January.

-Trading a 4th round pick for retired Rob Gronkowski off his couch. Took him about 6-8 games to really get it going and he effectively was just a blocker in the playoffs until the Superbowl. 

-Signing AB 8 games into the season off his couch for peanuts to be a role player playing 50% or less of the snaps.

I'm not sure how you can argue those as "all in" moves other than maybe the Gronk deal.  And I'd argue that Gronk in one season probably outproduces an average career of a 4th round draft pick.  Leonard Fournette and Antonio Brown had absolutely ZERO guarantees in their deals.  There was no downside for the Buccaneers.  If they create issues, you release them and you're only on the hook for the amount they played.

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3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not sure how you can argue those as "all in" moves other than maybe the Gronk deal.  And I'd argue that Gronk in one season probably outproduces an average career of a 4th round draft pick.  Leonard Fournette and Antonio Brown had absolutely ZERO guarantees in their deals.  There was no downside for the Buccaneers.  If they create issues, you release them and you're only on the hook for the amount they played.

Maybe the all in move ends up being moving on from Winston a former number one pick. If Sean Payton and having that lasik surgery gets him to perform to his draft status for years to come. And Brady ends up being a two year deal long term maybe that ends up being the all in move 

I mean I cringed when I read their GM said that they view Blaine Gabbert as the qbotf lol.

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2 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Maybe the all in move ends up being moving on from Winston a former number one pick. If Sean Payton and having that lasik surgery gets him to perform to his draft status for years to come. And Brady ends up being a two year deal long term maybe that ends up being the all in move 

I mean I cringed when I read their GM said that they view Blaine Gabbert as the qbotf lol.

I'd call that making a bold, but right move.  Winston is in the "good, but not great" QB category.  Or QB purgatory as it's probably more accurately.  I'd consider "all-in" moves where you're mortgaging the future for moves that affect today, i.e. trading future FRPs for picks in the upcoming draft, backloading contracts that have large dead cap numbers, etc.  None of the moves the Bucs made really mortgaged the future.  It's not like the Bucs are in a terrible position moving forward.

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16 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'd call that making a bold, but right move.  Winston is in the "good, but not great" QB category.  Or QB purgatory as it's probably more accurately.  I'd consider "all-in" moves where you're mortgaging the future for moves that affect today, i.e. trading future FRPs for picks in the upcoming draft, backloading contracts that have large dead cap numbers, etc.  None of the moves the Bucs made really mortgaged the future.  It's not like the Bucs are in a terrible position moving forward.

I could see Winston thriving under Payton we shall see. Obviously Bucs fans will never complain about the Superbowl, but what if Winston became a top 5 QB under Payton. Fans would put it in this category. 

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i would say that generally "going all in" is when a team makes 2+ moves that are rather intriguing either in a good or bad way

for us this year it was signing Brady and Gronk then LF came out of nowhere because the jags are the jags and then AB

but usually "going all in" is when teams make questionable moves like our AB move (and some would say the Gronk move) or mortgage future pics (Rams) cap space (Saints)

 

 

Edited by BucsDraftGeek47
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9 hours ago, ravishingone said:

I believe the 02 SB Champs Bucs were the definition of "All In".  A few years earlier, they traded 2 1st rds. for Keyshawn Johnson.  Then the Jon Gruden was a massive mortgaging of the future considering the age of the starting 22- 2 1sts and 2nds was a very high price.  It worked fortunately.   

Yup. That was the biggest difference between "going all in" in 2002 and "going all in" in 2020. By just so much. We crippled ourselves getting one of the best offensive guys at the time. With zero regard of how that would play out in the future.

BA was convinced we were one player away and we "sold out" to get Tom Brady. Helped that the 9ers didn't want him. But we offered him everything he wanted. Gave him whatever players he wanted and let him bring half his offense with him.

That was our "all in" this year.

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1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Maybe the all in move ends up being moving on from Winston a former number one pick. If Sean Payton and having that lasik surgery gets him to perform to his draft status for years to come. And Brady ends up being a two year deal long term maybe that ends up being the all in move 

I mean I cringed when I read their GM said that they view Blaine Gabbert as the qbotf lol.

Jameis had his lasik surgery the year before we let him walk, if I remember correctly.

His 30 INT season was obviously an anomaly. That'll never happen again, as much as everyone likes to laugh at it. And he's never been close to it before. But the chance to sign Tom ******* Brady was an option. And you let basically anyone walk 100/100 times in that situation. ESPECIALLY Jameis.

Can't enter the season with a guy that had almost 40 turnovers the year before (as rare as that is) when the guy with six Super Bowls is available.

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10 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said:

Jameis had his lasik surgery the year before we let him walk, if I remember correctly.

His 30 INT season was obviously an anomaly. That'll never happen again, as much as everyone likes to laugh at it. And he's never been close to it before. But the chance to sign Tom ******* Brady was an option. And you let basically anyone walk 100/100 times in that situation. ESPECIALLY Jameis.

Can't enter the season with a guy that had almost 40 turnovers the year before (as rare as that is) when the guy with six Super Bowls is available.

He got it April of 2019 wasn't the season before I'm not saying it was the wrong decision. All I'm saying is it would be second guessed depending on the level of  success Winston has for the Saints. 

I totally get the Bucs decision 

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14 hours ago, CP3MVP said:

In the wake of the Bucs Super Bowl championship I see a lot of teams can see getting angry at the idea that they’re team isn’t “going all in” like tampa allegedly did. Seahawks Packers Ravens fans for example have been saying “we need to go all in for our QB” and stop playing it safe. 
 

The thing with Tampa is, it’s not like they mortgaged their future for this title like other teams we associate “going all in” with. They didn’t trade all their first round picks for years like the rams, they have cap space, they don’t have any Vets on terrible immovable contracts. They have an “old” QB surrounded by a young talented team. The old QB is also has 1 year left on his deal being paid below market value for how good he still is.

The “all in” moves were 

-Signing LF off the scrap heap after he was released by the worst team in football for peanuts. He was a below average back the whole season and turned it on in January.

-Trading a 4th round pick for retired Rob Gronkowski off his couch. Took him about 6-8 games to really get it going and he effectively was just a blocker in the playoffs until the Superbowl. 

-Signing AB 8 games into the season off his couch for peanuts to be a role player playing 50% or less of the snaps.

I would argue other than Brady the biggest acquisition  for Tampa this year was the drafting of Wirfs at RT who was a stud. But who considers drafting a rookie RT to be an “all in” move?

So I’m interested in people’s opinions on this, what does “going all in” mean for you? Has your team ever done it? 

Denver went 'All-In' in 2014-2015 when they won a Super Bowl. Same scenerio you suggested of a team with a old veteran QB that they know they needed to surround with talent. 

They went out and signed Aqib Talib, Emmanuel Sanders, TJ Ward and Demarcus Ware. It won them a SuperBowl just like Tampa got theirs with guys like Fournette, Gronk and Brown.

The downside to this is that after you achieve the final result, your team gets broken apart through Free Agency afterwards. 

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Minnesota went all in for the 2009 season.

I really liked Harvin but that was not a good use of a first round pick (WRs hardly ever are). I think we got him because we lost out on TJ Houshmanzadeh that year. Loadholt was a good pick though.

All the old guys stayed that year and next.

I guess that qualifies.

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36 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

Denver went 'All-In' in 2014-2015 when they won a Super Bowl. Same scenerio you suggested of a team with a old veteran QB that they know they needed to surround with talent. 

They went out and signed Aqib Talib, Emmanuel Sanders, TJ Ward and Demarcus Ware. It won them a SuperBowl just like Tampa got theirs with guys like Fournette, Gronk and Brown.

The downside to this is that after you achieve the final result, your team gets broken apart through Free Agency afterwards. 

That's really why the best time to do it is definitely when you have an aging QB. Kind of assume you'll step back anyways once the QB retires, so may as well commit while you have them.

It's also why teams like KC or Baltimore will kind of flirt with it, but not fully commit, because you want to balance your years with that QB now, and your years with that QB later.

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4 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

That's really why the best time to do it is definitely when you have an aging QB. Kind of assume you'll step back anyways once the QB retires, so may as well commit while you have them.

It's also why teams like KC or Baltimore will kind of flirt with it, but not fully commit, because you want to balance your years with that QB now, and your years with that QB later.

Sure, it seems like the best time to be aggressive is either when you have a QB on a rookie deal or a ageing veteran on his last legs.

It sort of seems weird and difficult to be ultra aggressive when you have a good QB on their 2nd contract since that is likely eating up a large portion of the cap.

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