Trentwannabe's 2021 Mock Off-season & Draft

[Trentwannabe]

*Using Spotrac Salary Tool that estimates cap at $185m*

Restructure:
LB AJ Klein - Base Salary
C Mitch Morse - Base Salary
CB Tre White - Base Salary
 

Retired:
TE Lee Smith

Release:
WR John Brown
DL Quinton Jefferson
DL Mario Addison
DL Vernon Butler

Available Cap Space:
$43,290,323

Re-signed:
OG Jon Feliciano -  3 years $17m
QB Matt Barkley - 2 years $5mil
CB Levi Wallace - RFA Tender
LB Andre Smith - RFA Tender
P Corey Bojorquez - RFA Tender
OG Ike Boettger - RFA Tender

Free Agents:
RB James White - 2 year $5mil. Bills get a legit receiving threat out of the backfield with a nose for the end zone. 
DE Carl Lawson  - 4 year $35mil. Bills get a young pass rusher who's shown the ability to get after the QB and plays the run well.
CB Artie Burns - 1 year $1mil. Bills add a veteran corner on the cheap as he's coming off an injury. Has exp in Man and zone.

2021 NFL Draft: 

Round 1, Pick 30:
LB Zaven Collins Tulsa

- A athletic freak to pair with the other athletic freak at MLB. Collins can play in multiple fronts and has the athleticism and size to stick with TE's like Kelce. He is also quite capable as a pass rusher off the edge or blitzing up the middle. 

Round 2, Pick 62:
OT Dillon Radunz North Dakota State

- The Bills hope they got their future at RT in Radunz. He is considered a nasty run blocker which is something the Bills sorely lacked. 

Round 3, Pick 93:
DT Tyler Shelvin LSU

- Star is coming back which is great, but what kind of shape will he be in? He's also 31 and has always been slower. Shelvin is an absolute game wrecker. I am biased towards this pick because I've watched a lot of Cover 1 highlights of him but I think he'd do wonders for Edmunds in the middle. Could make a nice pairing with Oliver inside and allow him to see less doubles.

Round 5, Pick 162:
WR Dazz Newsome North Carolina

 - Maybe a bit out in left field? Not sure how some of you view the WR room right now but I think Newsome adds an element. He can be the future slot and immediate PR/KR option. 

Round 5, Pick 175
Traded to Philadelphia for TE Zach Ertz. 

Round 6, Pick 215
DT Naquan Jones, Michigan St. 

- A former 4 star recruit who's had issues getting on the field but has shown some nice push when he does. A late flier on a guy who could help stop the run is never a bad thing.

 

Depth Chart:
QB: Allen, Barkley
RB: Moss, Singletary, White
TE: Ertz, Knox, Gilliam, Sweeney
WR: Diggs, Davis, Beasley, Newsome, Hodgins, Kumerow
OT: Dawkins
LG: Feliciano, Boettger
C : Morse, Devey
RG: Ford, Bates
RT: Radunz, Adams

DE: Hughes, Johnson Jr.
DT: Oliver, Phillips, Jones
DT: Star, Shelvin
DE: Lawson, Epenesa
WLB: Collins, Smith
MLB: Edmunds, Matakevich
SLB: Klein, Dodson
CB: White, Burns, Wallace, Johnson, Jackson, Lewis
S: Hyde, Johnson
S: Poyer, Neal, Thomas

K: Bass
P: Bojo
LS: Ferguson

Synopsis:

Not an overly sexy off-season or draft IMO. But one that could really help the defense go to a higher level and help solidify the offense.

Davis earns his shot as WR2, James White and Ertz come in to give Allen even more options on 3rd down and in the redzone. Bills hope Ford can stay healthy and be the mauling Guard they drafted two years ago while pairing him with the nasty Radunz on the right side.  

Defensively, Star returning and the additions of Lawson and Shelvin help shut down the run game and free the LB's. Edmunds gets a new running mate in Collins who is a very versatile athlete. The secondary remains mostly unchanged with Burns being this years "veteran" added to the CB2 mix with some young guys in the frey as well. 

The Bills cap space is set up quite nicely in 2022 and beyond, so they are able to push some money that way and will pick up the 5th year option on Edmunds while working on a long-term deal for Allen. 

Discuss! 

[DER10N92]

Like a lot of things here. I think picking up Ertz would be a pretty solid get for us and he could give us good production for the next 2-3 years even though he had a down year.

Few different things:

1.) I kind of would like us to look at other backup QB options before going back to Barkley. I like the guy a lot. He's a great team guy but if/whe it would come to needing him for games, idk if I'd like to see him in that spot for a couple games.

2.) I like the receiving RB option upgrade but feel like maybe we should go after someone who can also hit it between the tackles a little better than White but still be that receiving threat. Maybe someone like a Matt Breida, who also has speed.

3.) I'm kind of hoping we resign McKenzie who plays a similar role that you have Newsome projected to play. Even if we don't keep him though, we already have Hodgins as the up and comer ready to fill a similar role as well. I would say to use the pick instead on a secondary player or developmental pass rusher.

[Trentwannabe]

12 hours ago, DER10N92 said:

Like a lot of things here. I think picking up Ertz would be a pretty solid get for us and he could give us good production for the next 2-3 years even though he had a down year.

Few different things:

1.) I kind of would like us to look at other backup QB options before going back to Barkley. I like the guy a lot. He's a great team guy but if/whe it would come to needing him for games, idk if I'd like to see him in that spot for a couple games.

2.) I like the receiving RB option upgrade but feel like maybe we should go after someone who can also hit it between the tackles a little better than White but still be that receiving threat. Maybe someone like a Matt Breida, who also has speed.

3.) I'm kind of hoping we resign McKenzie who plays a similar role that you have Newsome projected to play. Even if we don't keep him though, we already have Hodgins as the up and comer ready to fill a similar role as well. I would say to use the pick instead on a secondary player or developmental pass rusher.

With the cap being what it is, I’m not sure what realistic options for a backup QB are out there.

I looked at some other free agent RBs but none came close to the receiving threat White is. Breida for example has a career high of 27 receptions in a season. 
 

Is Hodgins a burner? I thought he was more of a tall possession WR but not someone who’s a home run threat or a returner. I don’t view him and Newsome the same at all. I’d like McKenzie back too but I couldn’t fit him in cap wise or in the WR room currently. 

[soflbillsfan]

I like some of the stuff that you have pointed out. Adding Lawson would be great just dont know if he would come that cheap. With the draft being some what weak at pass rusher I could see his price tag be around the 10 mil range. Deals with multiple years on it will not be impacted when it comes to COVID and the salary cap this year, it will impact the vets looking to do 1 year deals so I wouldn't be surprised he gets a higher pay day. Love the Ertz move just dont know what his price tag will be as he is expecting a new deal and in order for the trade to happen I assume a new deal has to be put in place. 

I get the barkley extension but would prefer it to be a bit lower in the price tag as I dont think it will cost that much to retain him and I would expect them to hold on to fromm as a long term back up option and a preventative COVID spot for next year as well. If they do go with a 2 year 5 mil deal ideally I hope the guarantees are around the 1.5-2 mil range and can be spread out between the 2 years so they can cut him next offseason with Fromm being the permanent back up to Allen. 

My debate is feliciano vs Williams ideally I would love to keep both but at the end of the day it may not be possible. While I like feliciano's ability to play both center and guard I like the fact that Williams was able to put guys in their own place at times. Him vs the best pass rusher in 2020, Watt 1 on 1 was handled as best as a RT could be and I think with him back at his RT spot and proving when healthy he is just like they saw him in 2017, so ideally keeping him and having both anchors while looking to replace feliciano would be the option I go, but that is my opinion and mock on the take. With Ike being a capable LG for us this year, not ideal but capable it would be more flexible going in to camp with Ford at RG and Ike/2nd rd rookie at LG compared to Feliciano at RG and a rookie at RT with no true back up option unless you slide Ford back in to the RT which I am not comfortable doing at all. Honestly if we were only to look to add Feliciano of the 2, I would much rather go all in on Joe Thuney and pay a bit more then what we pay feliciano if we cant land both (Feliciano and Williams).

I dont mind the White pick up but come game day they rolled with 2 all year long and scratched yeldon during game day I expect that to happen this year if thats the case. Honestly would like to see a true #1 rb come in if any at all or roll with what we got and hope the oline is improved to get a run game going and use Williams as the #3 RB while saving the cap. Nothing against White as I think he is a solid RB but with a pass happy offense Daboll has shown he is willing to keep more WR in the starting lineup then RBs. It may change if they had white where 1 less TE/Wr would be on the active roster while carrying 3 rbs but I am not sure for that is why I wouldn't go with the pick.

Zaven Collins is a solid pick and hopefully he will be there at 30, would agree with this being a solid option at the time. I would have liked a Safety/CB being added at some point too in the draft. 

Edited February 15, 2021 by soflbillsfan

[Trentwannabe]

@soflbillsfanfor the contracts I just used the market value from spotrac. I could see Lawson getting a higher deal though. 
 

I’d prefer Williams too but it sounds like Feliciano may be a done deal and Williams is the only real option at RT in free agency so I could see a team with space paying him a lot of money. Not sure the Bills will be able to afford him, and at 29 years old, i like the idea of getting a cheaper contract there for 4 years.  I personally wouldn’t want to see Feliciano or Ike starting as neither has shown the strength to hold up well. I almost went Wyatt Davis at pick 30.

As for RB, remember they had Jones active all year so it was technically 3 backs on game day. I think White just replaces him and Yeldon all at once.

I wanted to add a secondary player too but the value was never right and I wanted to get a second DL added to the mix. Seems like the staff like Johnson and Thomas too as backups.

[soflbillsfan]

51 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

@soflbillsfanfor the contracts I just used the market value from spotrac. I could see Lawson getting a higher deal though. 
 

I’d prefer Williams too but it sounds like Feliciano may be a done deal and Williams is the only real option at RT in free agency so I could see a team with space paying him a lot of money. Not sure the Bills will be able to afford him, and at 29 years old, i like the idea of getting a cheaper contract there for 4 years.  I personally wouldn’t want to see Feliciano or Ike starting as neither has shown the strength to hold up well. I almost went Wyatt Davis at pick 30.

As for RB, remember they had Jones active all year so it was technically 3 backs on game day. I think White just replaces him and Yeldon all at once.

I wanted to add a secondary player too but the value was never right and I wanted to get a second DL added to the mix. Seems like the staff like Johnson and Thomas too as backups.

Taiwan Jones was used primarily for gunner on special teams, in which James white, Moss nor Singletary are used for. While I agree on having 3 active, the 3 have no ST value. keep in mind we will be losing Roberts, Jones, and Mckenzie who do play a good portion of ST in which those 3 will need to be replaced at some capacity and they will also have to get some form of role whether it is on the offensive side of the ball or defensive side of the ball. That is where I see one of the 3 positions filled with Newsome but it will be tough to fill the other 2 as they played gunner and/or return man on PR or KR. Mckenzie I think you can bring back on a cheap, diggs, beasley, davis, newsome, mckenzie, and hodgins, with Kumerow coming up from psqaud if need be. We still have no idea how Hodgins can be and since he was a 6th rd pick last year he may be expendable if Kumerow shows up in camp.

[Trentwannabe]

49 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

Taiwan Jones was used primarily for gunner on special teams, in which James white, Moss nor Singletary are used for. While I agree on having 3 active, the 3 have no ST value. keep in mind we will be losing Roberts, Jones, and Mckenzie who do play a good portion of ST in which those 3 will need to be replaced at some capacity and they will also have to get some form of role whether it is on the offensive side of the ball or defensive side of the ball. That is where I see one of the 3 positions filled with Newsome but it will be tough to fill the other 2 as they played gunner and/or return man on PR or KR. Mckenzie I think you can bring back on a cheap, diggs, beasley, davis, newsome, mckenzie, and hodgins, with Kumerow coming up from psqaud if need be. We still have no idea how Hodgins can be and since he was a 6th rd pick last year he may be expendable if Kumerow shows up in camp.

I think the Bills can find a gunner from elsewhere and not necessarily have to be from the RB position. I think Kumerow is a guy who can fill in on all special teams and that alone could earn him a roster spot.

[bigbadbuff]

I refuse to accept that Matt Milano walks. We would be so incredibly ****ed.

I want nothing to do with Ertz. He’s washed. I’d rather just hope Knox takes a step forward tbqh.

Can’t really comment on the draft, I haven’t paid too much attention or given it much thought.

[Trentwannabe]

10 hours ago, bigbadbuff said:

I refuse to accept that Matt Milano walks. We would be so incredibly ****ed.

Give me Milano on a one year deal full of incentives and I'm happy. Anything long-term or with a lot of guaranteed money and I'm out. This team is all about Josh Allen now anyways. 

[soflbillsfan]

12 hours ago, bigbadbuff said:

I refuse to accept that Matt Milano walks. We would be so incredibly ****ed.

I want nothing to do with Ertz. He’s washed. I’d rather just hope Knox takes a step forward tbqh.

Can’t really comment on the draft, I haven’t paid too much attention or given it much thought.

Milano is good as gone. Some team like the Raiders will be willing to make him a big offer. We can not afford to pay a SLB 12-14 mil a year then the next year turn around and pay Edmunds 13-15 mil it is just not happening. The position, injury history, and value of him is not worth the price he will likely land. Only way he comes back to us is he hits the market and the market hits flat for him and he needs to prove to the NFL he can stay healthy in which we get him on the cheap for one more year.

As for Ertz people think he is washed up, he definitely has an injury risk but he was greatly under utilized and quickly phased out last year because of the whole offense losing their identity with Wentz, the offense was predictable and finally they are trying to be fully committed to Goedert. He will be 31 so I expect his price tag to be fairly cheap with the ability to be playing at a level of 900+ yards and 5-6 td. His route running and catching ability at worst is Knox best day. So yes the age and injury risk is concerning but giving up a 6th rd pick for him is well worth it considering majority of those picks do not last on a team or at best back up/ST while you are getting a starting TE in which this draft does not offer outside of Pitts. Also let's not forget this offseason for drafting is going to be harder then ever to predict how most of these guys will be able to contribute in the NFL with them not playing full seasons, opting out, no true combine, limited work outs. It is a huge risk and we know what Ertz is and is not capable of doing while the unknown in a late draft could easily be a blunder.

[BillsGuy82]

Zaven Collins tops my BB at 30. Day 1 starter to step in and fill Milano position.

Collins, Nick Bolton and Najee Harris 

Not sure restructuring Tre White right after signing extension is the right play but if hes ok with it than good stuff

 

[BillsGuy82]

On 2/16/2021 at 10:41 AM, soflbillsfan said:

Milano is good as gone. Some team like the Raiders will be willing to make him a big offer. We can not afford to pay a SLB 12-14 mil a year then the next year turn around and pay Edmunds 13-15 mil it is just not happening. The position, injury history, and value of him is not worth the price he will likely land. Only way he comes back to us is he hits the market and the market hits flat for him and he needs to prove to the NFL he can stay healthy in which we get him on the cheap for one more year.

As for Ertz people think he is washed up, he definitely has an injury risk but he was greatly under utilized and quickly phased out last year because of the whole offense losing their identity with Wentz, the offense was predictable and finally they are trying to be fully committed to Goedert. He will be 31 so I expect his price tag to be fairly cheap with the ability to be playing at a level of 900+ yards and 5-6 td. His route running and catching ability at worst is Knox best day. So yes the age and injury risk is concerning but giving up a 6th rd pick for him is well worth it considering majority of those picks do not last on a team or at best back up/ST while you are getting a starting TE in which this draft does not offer outside of Pitts. Also let's not forget this offseason for drafting is going to be harder then ever to predict how most of these guys will be able to contribute in the NFL with them not playing full seasons, opting out, no true combine, limited work outs. It is a huge risk and we know what Ertz is and is not capable of doing while the unknown in a late draft could easily be a blunder.

I've come to this conclusion as well on Milano. The market wont be flat either in fact hell be coveted because his skillset matches any scheme. I think he could play inside in a 3/4 because of his coverage skills 

[soflbillsfan]

13 hours ago, BillsGuy82 said:

Zaven Collins tops my BB at 30. Day 1 starter to step in and fill Milano position.

Collins, Nick Bolton and Najee Harris 

Not sure restructuring Tre White right after signing extension is the right play but if hes ok with it than good stuff

 

Yea I am getting to be more on the page of going Collins over Najee my only concern is people are putting him in the late teens early 20s and I dont see him dropping to us. If he is gone Najee is my #2 with Owusu coming in as my 3rd option. 

I am just not high on any of these pass rushers coming out in any way, and I get the meh feeling like I did with the Espenesa pick last year. Unfortunately that is our greatest need at the moment.

[Trentwannabe]

13 hours ago, BillsGuy82 said:

Zaven Collins tops my BB at 30. Day 1 starter to step in and fill Milano position.

Collins, Nick Bolton and Najee Harris 

Not sure restructuring Tre White right after signing extension is the right play but if hes ok with it than good stuff

 

We wouldn’t really be restructuring White, just converting money into a bonus paid out now but the cap hit would be spread out over the life of his contract.