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Packer Prospect Interest Thread


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25 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

This is like saying anyone who has driven a car can diagnose an engine issue.

No it's not really at all. When driving a car, you don't watch the engine work. Notice I didn't say HS?

In college/pro ball you watch film every single day, you learn how your offense/defense works, you scout your opponents. Turning it around and watching a different person for the purpose of evaluation isn't like a foreign language. Let's not act like football is engineering or mechanics.

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Just now, Packerraymond said:

No it's not really at all. When driving a car, you don't watch the engine work. Notice I didn't say HS?

In college/pro ball you watch film every single day, you learn how your offense/defense works, you scout your opponents. Turning it around and watching a different person for the purpose of evaluation isn't like a foreign language. Let's not act like football is engineering or mechanics.

Couldn't disagree more. Colt Lyerla could not be a successful scout.

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45 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

This is like saying anyone who has driven a car can diagnose an engine issue.

Or anyone who owns a grill is a grill master. Or anyone who owns a stove is a chef.  

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13 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Couldn't disagree more. Colt Lyerla could not be a successful scout.

Lol OK. I'm sorry I forgot to put an asterisk that you had to be a player that didn't drink excessively and do drugs. Obviously not every player has the personality to get into scouting, doesn't mean they couldn't pop on tape and break down a player.

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1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Anyone who played football in college (at any division) or pros can evaluate game tape. It's not a difficult skill. His number is probably quite low. The NFL FO's of late are the poster for nepotism. There are no more Gutey or Schneider's coming up who grind away at lower divisions of the NCAA while writing letters to NFL front offices and get internships. It's all who you know.

So....who do you know?
You need a referral letter let me know :)

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On 4/15/2021 at 2:17 PM, packfanfb said:

The Packers have sucked drafting in the 3rd round for what seems like a decade....

 

10 hours ago, pgwingman said:

Amen to that. I've watched the draft every year going back to at least the Rodgers draft. Every year, like clockwork, I've watched them select a guy who basically has a late round/UDFA grade. Every year I tell myself to trust that the Packers scouts have better info than the talking heads. And every year I watch the third round pick from two or three years ago flame out. It seems beyond comprehension.

Josiah Deguara is going to be an end to that damnit

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1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Anyone who played football in college (at any division) or pros can evaluate game tape. It's not a difficult skill. His number is probably quite low. The NFL FO's of late are the poster for nepotism. There are no more Gutey or Schneider's coming up who grind away at lower divisions of the NCAA while writing letters to NFL front offices and get internships. It's all who you know.

This.

Game film isn't hard. A decent understanding of the concepts gets you most of the way there.

The hardest part is putting in the work. What percent of snaps do you need to win the hands fight on to say a guy has good hands? 

Hell, an All Pro LT probably allows 2 sacks in 600 pass pro snaps. A trash LT probably allows 10 in 600. That's a difference between a .33% failure rate and a 1.6% failure rate. You need a ton of reps to parse that out, and that's something as concrete as play outcome and not as arbitrary as a characteristic.

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2 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

 

Josiah Deguara is going to be an end to that damnit

uh....no he won't. He'll be a middle-of-the-road Rich-Rod type of player that functions in a role player role and we'll sit back and think...man if Gutey didn't blow a 4th round pick to trade up for Jimmy G 2.0 we might have drafted a better player at 94 AND have taken the plunge on Deguara in the 4th...

Seriously, his ceiling is very low, but if he can be that successful H-back that can consistently sneak out and get you 5-7 yards underneath we can consider that pick a success IMHO.

3 minutes ago, cannondale said:

Not sure if this is legit or not

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/payton-turner/32005455-5264-6253-7d03-4daa88bd4dd4

 

Note the comparison. If we can hit on OT and CB first, I'd be more than happy to use pick 92 on him as a developmental future guy opposite Gary. In that event, if Garvin could develop a bit more we'd have a formidable EDGE rush for a solid 2-3 seasons provided we kept everything intact IMHO.

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35 minutes ago, Joe said:

uh....no he won't. He'll be a middle-of-the-road Rich-Rod type of player that functions in a role player role and we'll sit back and think...man if Gutey didn't blow a 4th round pick to trade up for Jimmy G 2.0 we might have drafted a better player at 94 AND have taken the plunge on Deguara in the 4th...

Seriously, his ceiling is very low, but if he can be that successful H-back that can consistently sneak out and get you 5-7 yards underneath we can consider that pick a success IMHO.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/payton-turner/32005455-5264-6253-7d03-4daa88bd4dd4

 

Note the comparison. If we can hit on OT and CB first, I'd be more than happy to use pick 92 on him as a developmental future guy opposite Gary. In that event, if Garvin could develop a bit more we'd have a formidable EDGE rush for a solid 2-3 seasons provided we kept everything intact IMHO.

If you get a contributor on offense or defense in the 3rd round you're very happy.

Of the 34 players drafted in the 2015 NFL draft, only 21 are still in the league. 

There are 3 people that have made a pro bowl. Tyler Lockett (1), David Johnson (1), Danielle Hunter (2). 

Among those 34, over the course of 6 seasons, there have been 56 seasons as the primary starter. 56 primary starter seasons out of a possible 204. That isn't being a good starter, that's just being there. Of the 34 drafted players only 19 have ever been a primary starter. 

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57 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

This.

Game film isn't hard. A decent understanding of the concepts gets you most of the way there.

The hardest part is putting in the work. What percent of snaps do you need to win the hands fight on to say a guy has good hands? 

Hell, an All Pro LT probably allows 2 sacks in 600 pass pro snaps. A trash LT probably allows 10 in 600. That's a difference between a .33% failure rate and a 1.6% failure rate. You need a ton of reps to parse that out, and that's something as concrete as play outcome and not as arbitrary as a characteristic.

This is a circular argument. You are glossing over the actual part of the argument that it hinges on ...

'putting in the time'

The whole point is that it requires that, and not "every college player" currently does that. They literally cannot create a big board right now precisely because they HAVEN'T put in the time.

Everyone agrees they COULD do it, but 99% haven't, and won't, and aren't among the 2,000ish people who HAVE for this draft class.

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1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Lol OK. I'm sorry I forgot to put an asterisk that you had to be a player that didn't drink excessively and do drugs. Obviously not every player has the personality to get into scouting, doesn't mean they couldn't pop on tape and break down a player.

Or literally anyone who has another job right now and hasn't watched the necessary tape to properly evaluate an entire draft class (which is virtually every current and former pro and college player).

I don't understand where the confusion is coming from anymore. We all agreed that a lot of these guys COULD do it if they put the time in.

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3 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Or literally anyone who has another job right now and hasn't watched the necessary tape to properly evaluate an entire draft class (which is virtually every current and former pro and college player).

I don't understand where the confusion is coming from anymore. We all agreed that a lot of these guys COULD do it if they put the time in.

Sage Rosenfels on Twitter: "There are maybe a couple thousand people in the world who know how to watch college or NFL “film” and know what they are looking at. Watching TV versions does nothing. Most people don’t have a clue about defenses, protections or coverages. Stop with the “I watched his film”." / Twitter

I agree with your premise above, but my argument was because I thought you were concurring with this bolded statement by Rosenfels which I think is a load of crap personally.

If you're talking about wholely evaluating a specific draft class, you need to be in the NFL. We can see what the docs said, what their coaches said without them in the room, hell you can't even get ahold of college all 22 unless you know someone. Not sure why the NCAA is not picking up on that possible revenue stream.

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