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Good nuts and bolts article here about the draft. A little long, but I thought it was worth the time. 

NFL draft board building 101 - Inside the secretive yearlong grind (espn.com)

I liked this paragraph,

"The board is players you like; other people may not, but you do," is how one longtime personnel executive put it. "Sometimes you're not right until a few years out and sometimes you're not right until the guy goes somewhere else because they fit him better or he gets healthier or he just develops. Fit, the developmental curve, coaching, the guy's work ethic, maturity, it all can add up differently and those are the questions you're trying to answer when you make the picks."

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https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/draft.htm

Over the last six 3rd round selections, Fackrell is the only one whose development hasn't been significantly limited by injuries.  Ty Montgomery; Montraveous Adams; Burks; Sternberger; Deguara.  

Thornton, Richard Rodgers, Alex Green, blah.  

Several years with out a 3rd-round pick:  2013, 2012, 2009, 2005.

Burnett, Finley, Jones was a good stretch.  Finley and Spitz were a couple more 3rds whose careers were truncated by injuries.  

Here's hoping Gute picks somebody who both stays healthy and is actually good.  And that Deguara comes back from his rookie injury and ends up being a good player for a lot of Packers seasons.  

Edited by craig
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39 minutes ago, Norm said:

I agree with what he's saying but a couple thousand seems stupidly low. 

It seems pretty reasonable I feel. At least in an order of magnitude. There's probably, what, 20-30 guys per NFL team? then probably fewer than 100 media personalities/former players/execs/scouts that keep up with it. Then a chunk in the college ranks.

Like @Spartacus said, this is largely true for many skilled professions. 10,000 hours to expertise and all that. Sure a lot of people COULD do this if they put in the time, but there's probably around 2,000 people who actually put in the time ha

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17 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

It seems pretty reasonable I feel. At least in an order of magnitude. There's probably, what, 20-30 guys per NFL team? then probably fewer than 100 media personalities/former players/execs/scouts that keep up with it. Then a chunk in the college ranks.

Like @Spartacus said, this is largely true for many skilled professions. 10,000 hours to expertise and all that. Sure a lot of people COULD do this if they put in the time, but there's probably around 2,000 people who actually put in the time ha

Yea what I didn't like is the whole equating the amount of people who do the job to how hard the job is. There is simply not that many opportunities for scouts and frankly if it was such an intelligent field you would think the draft order would be filled with hits in the first 3 rounds but its simply a crapshoot anyways so how actually smart are these guys? This isn't brain surgery or rocket scientist levels of intelligence here to scout. I guarantee anyone smart person could do what he does if they had a 2 year course on the field. Something about it just rubs me the wrong way. 

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5 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

Yea what I didn't like is the whole equating the amount of people who do the job to how hard the job is. There is simply not that many opportunities for scouts and frankly if it was such an intelligent field you would think the draft order would be filled with hits in the first 3 rounds but its simply a crapshoot anyways so how actually smart are these guys? This isn't brain surgery or rocket scientist levels of intelligence here to scout. I guarantee anyone smart person could do what he does if they had a 2 year course on the field. Something about it just rubs me the wrong way. 

I'm an actual rocket scientist engineer, and I bet there are scouts smarter than some of my colleagues lol

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25 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

Yea what I didn't like is the whole equating the amount of people who do the job to how hard the job is. There is simply not that many opportunities for scouts and frankly if it was such an intelligent field you would think the draft order would be filled with hits in the first 3 rounds but its simply a crapshoot anyways so how actually smart are these guys? This isn't brain surgery or rocket scientist levels of intelligence here to scout. I guarantee anyone smart person could do what he does if they had a 2 year course on the field. Something about it just rubs me the wrong way. 

The reason success rates on draft picks is the way it is and probably always will be is because after they are drafted their success is yet to be determined. They are not drafting a RAM 3500, there for they know the max tow capacity 35,000 and that is what they will always have. These are young humans that for many have no idea what they really want in life and mental will change a great deal in the few years after being drafted. Was a scout suppose to know that Chris Borland would decide to retire after one season in the NFL. TJ Lang is a great Packers example of this, to his own admission he was very near being cut his second year in the NFL because he was drinking heavily almost every night in the local bars. Just a single guy wanting to party. He said that meeting the woman that would become his wife saved his career. Him maturing professionally allowed him to stick around long enough to develop into the player he became. Scouts study the nature side of the player, but the nurture side of it is yet to be determined.    

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1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

It seems pretty reasonable I feel. At least in an order of magnitude. There's probably, what, 20-30 guys per NFL team? then probably fewer than 100 media personalities/former players/execs/scouts that keep up with it. Then a chunk in the college ranks.

Like @Spartacus said, this is largely true for many skilled professions. 10,000 hours to expertise and all that. Sure a lot of people COULD do this if they put in the time, but there's probably around 2,000 people who actually put in the time ha

Sure sure. I get you.  2000 who actually do seems fair. But he made it sound like there's only 2k people capable of doing it I felt. 

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39 minutes ago, Norm said:

Sure sure. I get you.  2000 who actually do seems fair. But he made it sound like there's only 2k people capable of doing it I felt. 

Interesting. I didn't read it that way at all, more along the lines that their was current only 2000 people trained enough to effectively breakdown tape. It would be interesting to ask him his intent of the comment.  

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Maybe this is my fault but "there may be a couple thousand people who know how to watch tape" makes it sound like capable, not a couple thousand out there doing it that know what they're doing. If it's the latter then I think he's on point. I bet that's what he meant though. I guess first read he was acting like only 2k people could at all which seemed insane to me. I'm sure he's smarter than that

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8 hours ago, pgwingman said:

Amen to that. I've watched the draft every year going back to at least the Rodgers draft. Every year, like clockwork, I've watched them select a guy who basically has a late round/UDFA grade. Every year I tell myself to trust that the Packers scouts have better info than the talking heads. And every year I watch the third round pick from two or three years ago flame out. It seems beyond comprehension.

It's why I don't think we're capable of drafting in the 3rd and why I wish Gutey would've traded down into the 4th from the 3rd round instead of giving up a 4th when he's traded up.

In all fairness, however, the last half of the 3rd round is typically made up of players that teams think have potential to be much better in the pros than college or they're looking for that solid role player that another team may have their eyes set on; rarely is the value actually there. I'd honestly trade away my 3rd round pick just about every year to either move up in the 2nd or to pick up more Day 3 picks unless my 3rd rounder was pick 80 or higher. 

Edited by Joe
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6 hours ago, incognito_man said:

It seems pretty reasonable I feel. At least in an order of magnitude. There's probably, what, 20-30 guys per NFL team? then probably fewer than 100 media personalities/former players/execs/scouts that keep up with it. Then a chunk in the college ranks.

Like @Spartacus said, this is largely true for many skilled professions. 10,000 hours to expertise and all that. Sure a lot of people COULD do this if they put in the time, but there's probably around 2,000 people who actually put in the time ha

Anyone who played football in college (at any division) or pros can evaluate game tape. It's not a difficult skill. His number is probably quite low. The NFL FO's of late are the poster for nepotism. There are no more Gutey or Schneider's coming up who grind away at lower divisions of the NCAA while writing letters to NFL front offices and get internships. It's all who you know.

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