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Random Thoughts - 2021 Offseason edition


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People keep pointing out that same trade would be viewed as smart for Indy and dumb for Chicago and it isn't fair.

But it is correct.  Indy has a much better O line an equal Defense, a crap ton of cap space to upgrade and FO and coaching job security.

Wentz has a much better opportunity to succeed in Indy than he would in Chicago which would almost be certain failure.

 

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19 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

People keep pointing out that same trade would be viewed as smart for Indy and dumb for Chicago and it isn't fair.

But it is correct.  Indy has a much better O line an equal Defense, a crap ton of cap space to upgrade and FO and coaching job security.

Wentz has a much better opportunity to succeed in Indy than he would in Chicago which would almost be certain failure.

 

I don't think there is anyone here that thinks the Bears have a clear path to being successful in 2021, that the most likely scenario is some 7-9 or 9-7 team that gets Nagy and Pace fired and handcuffs the next organization by having a lousy draft slot and possibly trading away furure capital in their floundering. 

But. Imagine if they pull it off? The net Watson, Carr and they play out of their minds behind a subtly improved offense and D stays strong? Or they trade up for Wilson and he works out?  That would be an incredible achievement and I think we'd all be happy to have them around long term then. 

My own take remains that the Bears have long odds for a lot of reasons, that success relies on both making moves and getting above average luck in terms of them working out. 

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4 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

I don't think there is anyone here that thinks the Bears have a clear path to being successful in 2021, that the most likely scenario is some 7-9 or 9-7 team that gets Nagy and Pace fired and handcuffs the next organization by having a lousy draft slot and possibly trading away furure capital in their floundering. 

But. Imagine if they pull it off? The net Watson, Carr and they play out of their minds behind a subtly improved offense and D stays strong? Or they trade up for Wilson and he works out?  That would be an incredible achievement and I think we'd all be happy to have them around long term then. 

My own take remains that the Bears have long odds for a lot of reasons, that success relies on both making moves and getting above average luck in terms of them working out. 

We have seen stranger things happen in NFL.   Dealing with human beings, outside forces and lots of moving parts.   

I still wouldn't say there is no path to success for them.

 

 

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I make fun of Pace, but I also defend him to some extent.

He is not dumb.

Everything he has done has been fairly rational at time he has done it.

White was receiver 1a in 2015 draft after Cooper and a lot of scouts had White 1.  Bears desperately needed a number 1 WR at time.  

In 2016 Leonard Floyd was this high upside pass rusher/OLB hybrid super athlete that a lot of scouts were enamored with and Fangio and Fox pounded table hard for him - in a year that they felt they were unfairly lame ducks to the new GM.   A newbie Pace was facing down two guys who had been in NFL for decades with success and who were not happy at all that he was likely throwing them to wolves that year.   We badly needed a pass rusher going forward so it was win/win at time.      

In 2017, MT was number 1 QB to a lot of scouts in that draft based on upside potential.   

Watson was seen as a product of stacked team and there were questions about his accuracy -  fair or unfair - unfair as it turns out.  Mahomes was another in line of Leach tree system QBs that had previously failed in NFL.     Pace got baited into trading up one spot, but to be fair he had no way of knowing he was being baited.  Ooops. 

Then, on top of that, Watson turns out to be one of best QBs in league and Mahomes the best in a generation.   Double, super ooops.   That is a bad year to miss on QB in eyes of public and your legacy.   

In 2018, Smith was seen as safest player with highest floor in draft.

2018 - Team was built theoretically to peak in 2019 with assumed development of MT, so with team still desperately needing pass rush Mack trade made a lot of sense to put the into true contending status and plug a major hole.

In hindsight it all went bad as a combined action and missing on top talent available, but at time those were not terrible decisions given situation and information at hand.   

I think dumbest, most irrational thing he has done in real time is not drafting or acquiring good OTs and picking/acquiring and overpaying subpar TEs.   Game is still largely won in trenches and offensive front has been abysmal every year of his tenure save one and that year just average.  

  

Edited by dll2000
highest floor rather than lowest ceiling
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I said prior to SB on here that nobody wins with a bad O line, if Mahomes does it in SB with that O line in state it is in, he is truly superhuman.

Turns out he couldn't do it either.   His scrambling and off platform throws were pretty incredible though.

But it does go to show that maybe people are being harder on guys like Darnold and Trubisky than is fair as they have had to deal with horrible O lines most of their young careers.

Rodgers O Line had a crap day against TB too and look how he played in that game and look how Mahomes played in SB.

  I don't think anyone would sanely argue 2020 Rodgers and Mahomes were bad QBs.   Might be two of best ever for any year.  But they looked bad in that circumstance.   

Circumstance matters.  

 

 

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Another thought:  We hammer Nagy for awful play calling and design, but at same time we hammer MT for constantly missing wide open WRs.

It seems both can't be completely true.  If guys are open then that play was a good call and design, just poorly executed.   

If you change deep drops, over throws and miscues to touchdowns in each instance many outcomes are completely different due to momentum, situational change and other factors   Perception of team and Nagy would be 180 degrees from what it is today.

But execution is still largely on Nagy's lap, so he can't be excused.

But my point has always been Nagy is not a bad X and O coach, but a bad or sub par execution, teacher, evaluator of talent and practice coach (to date).

  

 

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I posit that had Wentz come to Bears fans and media would have relentlessly attacked his stupid mechanics after every mistake and it would have drove him insane because apparently he is sensitive to such criticism.

This would have made his chances for success here that much lower.   

And rightfully so.   

His bad, and this is what is -bad, throwing motion (elbow drop and the raise) both gives DBs an extra 1/10th of sec. to break on ball and makes him far more susceptible to strip sacks.

 There is no excuse for him to throw ball that way at this stage of his career and with his intelligence.  None.  He should have fixed that years ago in his late teens or then in college or early in pros.

I wouldn't tolerate that from an 11 yr. old QB I was coaching.  I don't care how talented he was.   Its wrong.  Fix it.  Rest is fine, he is just adding an extra step to process that doesn't need to be there. 

But at highest level of play that extra step is huge problem.   It means incompletions, INTs and fumbles.  

 

 

 

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42 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I make fun of Pace, but I also defend him to some extent.

He is not dumb.

Everything he has done has been fairly rational at time he has done it.

White was receiver 1a in 2015 draft after Cooper and a lot of scouts had White 1.  Bears desperately needed a number 1 WR at time.  

In

  

In lockstep with you here; very few of Pace's moves have been flat BAD.  There have been moves that made sense given the available data, that flopped.  His record with first found picks is hilariously poor, but-aside from the trade up for MT and scheme fits for Floyd-seemed fine at the time. Add to that that he traded away two first round picks,  it makes for a good joke to say Pace can't draft. 

My big issue is that you have that career trajectory, then no matter how much you like the guy and can excuse his actions, you don't keep him aroudn this year. You stick him in a very difficult spot: win this year or you're toast.  You put the GM's best interest against the teams best interest.  You'd be better off firing him, or extending him for 3 years to keep him from doing something bat**** this year.  You don't put him on the precipice and then say you've got another year. 

Much to like about Pace: he's got a decent eye for which way injuries are heading (Robinson, Meredith) and for the most part has not given crazy contracts. That changed a bit in the last offseason with Graham and Quinn. Those were win-now moves when the rest of the team wasn't right.   It's a little curious he hasn't bitten on one of the other big win-now prospects at QB (and I think those prospects kinda suck) so I wonder if he's on a leash.  

 

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29 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I posit that had Wentz come to Bears fans and media would have relentlessly attacked his stupid mechanics after every mistake and it would have drove him insane because apparently he is sensitive to such criticism.

Well to be fair our fans aren’t exactly rational. Neither are those in Philly. Both fan bases have highly unrealistic expectations for perfection at the position. Can you imagine how we as a collective fan base would have treated Russell Wilson after he threw 4 INT in the 2014 NFCCG (but still won) then threw the Malcolm Butler INT at the goal line at the end of the SB 2 weeks later? He’s Russell ******* Wilson, and a not-so-small portion of our fan base would have tried to run him right out of town. 

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2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Well to be fair our fans aren’t exactly rational. Neither are those in Philly. Both fan bases have highly unrealistic expectations for perfection at the position. Can you imagine how we as a collective fan base would have treated Russell Wilson after he threw 4 INT in the 2014 NFCCG (but still won) then threw the Malcolm Butler INT at the goal line at the end of the SB 2 weeks later? He’s Russell ******* Wilson, and a not-so-small portion of our fan base would have tried to run him right out of town. 

I hear what you are saying and generally agree.

But I think they would have embraced Russell Wilson and here is why:

1) He was a later round pick (3rd round I believe).

2) He started out as a back up and won job.   

[Bears fans love an underdog and the back up who pulls himself up by bootstraps against the odds.  They love to be guy who watched camp and said this guy needs to start.]

3) He won his first SB in a blow out which makes Chicago go nuts forever and ever.

On other hand you are correct, if he was a top 5 pick and 2014 happened without the other SB then he would be a bum that needs replacing.  It would be good Wilson/bad Wilson which are we going to get this week?

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3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Tyler Bray is being resigned next year to practice squad. 

Is that actual news, or a prediction? 

20 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

On other hand you are correct, if he was a top 5 pick and 2014 happened without the other SB then he would be a bum that needs replacing.  It would be good Wilson/bad Wilson which are we going to get this week?

Dude...c'mon. It's Russell Wilson. There is one and I mean one quarterback I'd rather have than Russell Wilson. Let's not get silly...

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10 hours ago, dll2000 said:

People keep pointing out that same trade would be viewed as smart for Indy and dumb for Chicago and it isn't fair.

But it is correct.  Indy has a much better O line an equal Defense, a crap ton of cap space to upgrade and FO and coaching job security.

Wentz has a much better opportunity to succeed in Indy than he would in Chicago which would almost be certain failure.

 

I think there are a few factors that make more sense for IND than CHI.

- Wentz has the same system to go to that he already has success in, Chicago has no system.

- Much better OL in IND, Wentz's OL was bad last year and look at what happened.

- Much more cap space, we have to lose talent to pay him while they pay him and can still retain talent in the near future. (I'm excited to see what Nelson's deal is though  lol)

 

9 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Another thought:  We hammer Nagy for awful play calling and design, but at same time we hammer MT for constantly missing wide open WRs.

It seems both can't be completely true.  If guys are open then that play was a good call and design, just poorly executed.   

If you change deep drops, over throws and miscues to touchdowns in each instance many outcomes are completely different due to momentum, situational change and other factors   Perception of team and Nagy would be 180 degrees from what it is today.

But execution is still largely on Nagy's lap, so he can't be excused.

But my point has always been Nagy is not a bad X and O coach, but a bad or sub par execution, teacher, evaluator of talent and practice coach (to date).

 

 

I think they can be true for both while not being true at all times.

Nagy has some good playcalls, some games that he puts together good gameplans. I'm one of the biggest detractors of his and will never deny that. My issue is that he is predictable and cannot adapt. That is why good defenses crush our offense and we beat up on crap defenses. When they adapt we rarely can, and he refuses to go to things that work. JAF has thrown in numbers showing effectiveness in a few sets and lack of use in those sets. That boggles my mind, but admittedly I have been slightly disgusted with him ever since the "I wasn't hired to run the I-formation" comment was made. You were hired to put points on the board and develop the franchise QB. If you can do one the other has a better chance of being successful, and you're failing at both.

Execution is on him as well. You've gone in depth of his failings - especially on the OL - and that isn't isolated to them. I'm betting the same lack of attention to detail and correction goes on all areas. Just like learning powerlifting or Olympic lifts - stopping after 5 good reps is better than completing 500 bad ones.

As a playcaller there are several facets. I don't believe he is stupid at all, but egotistical. He knows the X and O's, Reid wouldn't have an OC that didn't. But failing on almost every other aspect is plenty damning, especially when they have to change and adapt but can't do it.

 

9 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Well to be fair our fans aren’t exactly rational. Neither are those in Philly. Both fan bases have highly unrealistic expectations for perfection at the position. Can you imagine how we as a collective fan base would have treated Russell Wilson after he threw 4 INT in the 2014 NFCCG (but still won) then threw the Malcolm Butler INT at the goal line at the end of the SB 2 weeks later? He’s Russell ******* Wilson, and a not-so-small portion of our fan base would have tried to run him right out of town. 

 

I'm convinced most of our fan base would have thrown Brady to the wayside for Jimmy G. lol

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16 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Is that actual news, or a prediction? 

More along lines of a joke. 

16 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Dude...c'mon. It's Russell Wilson. There is one and I mean one quarterback I'd rather have than Russell Wilson. Let's not get silly...

See above.  

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