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What it would take to move up from #20 to each spot in the draft


JAF-N72EX

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Its 2021 and the Bears are still looking for a franchise QB. The odds of them having enough firepower to move up in the draft to get either Fields or Wilson seem rather dim since they have the 20th overall pick.  But is it possible?

Just out of curiosity, I wanted to find out what it would cost to move up to each spot in the draft based on history. I started with the 1st overall pick and worked my way down to the 19th pick in the draft.

This is based on past history and draft value chart using the Rich Hill model scale as a reference. 

Just to quickly explain the process. First I looked at all recent trades in which any team traded down from exactly the #20 spot and how much it costs them to do so. (I.e X team had the 20th pick and traded Y team to move down to the 14th pick, and it costs them Z amount in draft value). 

If I could not find any trades made with the 20th pick then I would look at draft positions as close to #20 as I could, and I would improvise.

Some examples used are for more than 1 draft pick.

To keep things even and unbiased, the value of future draft picks are equal to the 16th pick of each relative round.

Disclaimer: For those who may nitpick at the smallest of things. I am not saying this is perfect. I am well aware that there is more that go into draft trades than just history and charts. This is only an attempt to get as close to reality as possible, as opposed to throwing out random guesses. If you feel as if this is trash then you are welcome to ignore it and come up with your own way.

 

Picks #1 and #2: N/A
I'm not even going to entertain the idea of moving up this far.  There is nothing to suggest this is even possible.
 

Miami Dolphins #3:  N/A
I didn't spend a lot of time on this for the same reason as above.  Miami would have to be totally sold on Tua to even consider trading back that far, regardless of the return value.
 

Atlanta Falcons #4

Trade cost:

  • 2021 1st round, pick #20
  • 2021 2nd round, pick #52
  • 2021 5th round, pick #165
  • 2022 1st round
  • 2022 4th round

Bears get: 2021 1st round, pick #4


Trade example: (the closest I could come up with)
Cleveland → Atlanta. Cleveland traded this pick to Atlanta for Atlanta's first 27th overall, second (59th) and fourth-rounder (124th) and also Atlanta's first- and fourth-round selections in 2012.

Summary:

In 2011, the Atlanta Falcons traded with the Cleveland Browns to move up 21 spots in the draft from 27th to 6th. 

This trade costs Atlanta 661 points worth of draft value in exchange for the 6th overall pick which is valued at 446 points.  That's a net gain/loss of 215 points for each team.

2011 1st round, pick #27 = 216 pts
2011 2nd round, pick #59 = 91 pts
2011 4th round, pick #124 = 21 pts
2012 1st round pick  = 305 pts
2012 4th round pick  = 28 pts


By comparison, if the Bears mirrored this same trade then they would be giving up 719 points for the 4th overall pick which is valued at 491 points. A net gain/loss of 228 points. To put that into better perspective the 2nd overall pick alone is valued at 717 points.

This would be 58 points more than the Falcons gave up in 2011, which is nothing to sneeze at. This is the equivalent value of the 80th overall pick in the draft -- mid 3rd round.

2021 1st round, pick #20  = 269 pts
2021 2nd round, pick #52  = 109 pts
2021 5th round, pick #165  =  8 pts
2022 1st round pick  = 305 pts
2022 4th round pick  = 28 pts


It's worth mentioning, the point differential between picks #27 and #20 is worth 53 points, and the point differential between picks #6 and #4 is 45 points.  This is important because not only would the Bears be giving up more in draft value, but they would also be doing it from a higher spot as well.

Now you could argue that Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot could try to squeeze Pace, knowing that he needs a QB to save his job, but 53 points is still a lot of extra meat.

This trade would only leave the Bears with this year's 2nd, 6th, and 7th round picks to fix the rest of the offense.  Possibly two 6th round comps. 

Would you be okay with this?

Stripping the 4th and 5th round picks seems more reasonable. The value would 36 points lower, and it would still be worth 22 points more than the Falcons, and high enough to compensate for desperation. (The 22 points is equivalent to a late 4th round pick #122 pick.  The Falcons gave up #124 in 2011).

But would the Falcons or Bengals be willing to give up such a high asset for only 3 draft picks in return? The math seems right, but that's hard for me to believe. Regardless if they are high value picks.

 

 

Edited by JAF-N72EX
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Reserved. (ugh...will finish later when I have more time)

I had this whole thing wrote out earlier, and I lost it TWICE now...jfdgabsdygbds. I accidentally pressed enter earlier as I was typing it out (this thread was created by accident). Then I started to type the rest of it out again, and I lost it for the 2nd time and was called away before I could finish it!

Anyhow. I'll try this again, but I'm only going to #10 tonight, and I'm not going to go into as much detail as I originally intended to do.

(I'll do picks 11-19 tomorrow)

Cincinnati Bengals #5:
Same as #4.  The value is nearly the same. Maybe this is more suited for my suggestion to take away the 5th round pick, but I wouldn't expect much more than that for the same reasons stated above.
 

Philadelphia Eagles #6:

Trade cost

  •     2021 1st round, pick #20
  •     2021 2nd round, pick #52
  •     2021 3rd round, pick #83
  •     3 players (does not have to be stars)


Bears get: 6th overall pick.

Trade example
Cleveland traded its first-round selection (5th overall) to the Jets for the Jets' first- and second-round selections 17th overall and 52nd overall; Kenyon Coleman, Brett Ratliff, and Abram Elam.

The Jets gave up 405 points in capital, the Bears would be giving up 430.  The 3rd round pick is to make up for the 27 point differential between the 17th and 20th pick and another 25 pts to compensate for desperation and moving up from a later position.  Since it's impossible to place a particular value on players I'm treating them all equally.

Detroit Lions #7
This is not going to happen unless the Lions trade this pick away.  It's very rare for division rivals to exchange picks in the 1st round, and it's even rarer for a team to help a rival move that far up in the draft to take a franchise QB.  The last division trade in the 1st round happened in 2010. When they do happen it's usually a team trading down from a late round position and there is only 3 cases of this happening since 2006.

 

Carolina Panthers #8
Trade cost

  •     2021 1st round, pick #20
  •     2021 2nd round, pick #52
  •     2021 5th round

    Bears get:  8th overall pick
    
Trade example
Baltimore traded its first-round selection to Jacksonville for Jacksonville's first-round selection, two third-round selections, and fourth-round selection (No. 26, 71, 89, 125).

Draft value between the 26th and 20th pick is worth 46 points. The Jaguars gave up 358 points in draft capital to move up from the 26th spot. The Bears would be giving up 392 points from the 20th spot. 

The Bears #1 and #2 picks are valued at 378 alone and so this seems like a bad trade ---value wise. But, no team is going to give up this spot for only two picks, and we don't have two 3rd round picks or a 4th round pick to offer.  The only 3rd we do have is in the later round.  You could call it the cost of doing business. 

Denver Broncos #9

The trade cost could be anywhere between #10 and #8.
 

Cowboys #10
Trade cost

  •     2021 1st round, pick #20
  •     2021 2nd round, pick #52
  •     2022 3rd round pick

Bears get: 10th overall pick

Denver traded a first-round selection (10th) to Pittsburgh in exchange for Pittsburgh's first- and second-round selections (20th and 52nd) as well as the third-round selection in 2020.

This speaks for itself.  The Steelers had the same exact draft picks within the first 2 rounds of the 2019 draft as the Bears do in 2021. The 20th and the 52nd overall picks.  I think it's safe to say that this one is very plausible.
 

Edited by JAF-N72EX
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1 hour ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Trade cost:

  • 2021 1st round, pick #20
  • 2021 2nd round, pick #52
  • 2021 5th round, pick #165
  • 2022 1st round
  • 2022 4th round

Bears get: 2021 1st round, pick #4

If Zach Wilson is on the board.

Yep, I'm doing the trade.

That being said, I'd be at least a bit curious as to why Jets, Miami, and Atlanta all wouldn't draft him immediately  at spots 2, 3, and 4.   All three of those teams would be pretty justified in grabbing him themselves..... Jets would have to pick Fields, or think Darnold is going to save them and grab Sewell to pair with Becton...... Miami would have to think Tua is their savior and potentially go Sewell (which means the Jets picked Fields), and Atlanta has to be basically just trying to keep their team together with duct tape on matty ice's contract, despite him being (imo) on his way out of the league soon.

 

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7 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Picks #1 and #2: N/A
I'm not even going to entertain the idea of moving up this far.  There is nothing to suggest this is even possible.

JAX isn’t trading 1, but the rough framework for a deal from 20 to 2 can be found in the 2016 Rams trade from 15 to 1 for Goff:

Rams traded 2016 1, two 2016 2s and a 2016 3, plus a 1 and 3 in 2017 to TEN for #1 overall plus TEN’s 2016 4 and 6.

For us to trade to 2 to guarantee we get whichever we prefer between Fields and Wilson, that would mean something like: 

We send: 

2021: 1 (20), 2 (52), 3 (83)

2022: 1st, 2nd

2023: 2nd

We get: 

2021: 1 (2), 5 (147)

 

I’d do it. Fortune favors the bold. 🤷‍♂️ But, if we’re doing this we gotta make the move before FA so we can then address our OT and WR needs in some way in FA. 

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6 hours ago, Epyon said:

If Zach Wilson is on the board.

Yep, I'm doing the trade.

That being said, I'd be at least a bit curious as to why Jets, Miami, and Atlanta all wouldn't draft him immediately  at spots 2, 3, and 4.   All three of those teams would be pretty justified in grabbing him themselves..... Jets would have to pick Fields, or think Darnold is going to save them and grab Sewell to pair with Becton...... Miami would have to think Tua is their savior and potentially go Sewell (which means the Jets picked Fields), and Atlanta has to be basically just trying to keep their team together with duct tape on matty ice's contract, despite him being (imo) on his way out of the league soon.

 

FWIW,  the consesus among draft "experts" is  that Fields go #2 to the Jets and Wilson is going #4.  That's as of right now as I type this.

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2021/consensus-mock-draft-2021

Yesterday, Wilson was going #3.  Just food for thought is all.

IMO, I'm not giving up that much for any rookie. AT this point, you may as well throw another 1st round pick in there and get Watson.  At least then you are getting an established commodity.

 

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5 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

JAX isn’t trading 1,

This is why I was trying to keep this as close to reality as possible.  The Jags are not giving up a chance to draft a generational talent in Lawrence.

This is why I excluded the #3 pick as well.  It's possible with alot of luck, but it's not reasonably possible.

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4 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I would offer Miami

20

52

2022 1st

2023 2nd

 

If they say no, then okay.

IMO a trade to 3 only works if you make it on draft day after we are sure the guy we desire isn’t gone to the Jets at 2. For a deal that big and complex I don’t think you can get it together in a 10-minute time window. If we’re going up for Fields or Wilson I think it has to be all the way to 2. Trading what it’ll cost to get there has to be such that the only way our guy is gone is if he goes 1st which would leave us with Lawrence. 

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42 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

IMO a trade to 3 only works if you make it on draft day after we are sure the guy we desire isn’t gone to the Jets at 2. For a deal that big and complex I don’t think you can get it together in a 10-minute time window. If we’re going up for Fields or Wilson I think it has to be all the way to 2. Trading what it’ll cost to get there has to be such that the only way our guy is gone is if he goes 1st which would leave us with Lawrence. 

2 may not be open for business.

I think you have the deal agreed to based on what happens in front of them.

I am fine with Fields or Wilson. I would try and make the move now so I have more clarity on QB and available resources.

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4 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

IMO a trade to 3 only works if you make it on draft day after we are sure the guy we desire isn’t gone to the Jets at 2. For a deal that big and complex I don’t think you can get it together in a 10-minute time window. If we’re going up for Fields or Wilson I think it has to be all the way to 2. Trading what it’ll cost to get there has to be such that the only way our guy is gone is if he goes 1st which would leave us with Lawrence. 

I don't think it has to be one way or the other. say pace calls up MIA and asks what it would take, maybe throw out a low-ball initial offer like first, 2nd, first next year - then when it gets rejected before the draft, during the draft you call back up and make the same offer plus a 3rd and go from there. having the framework before hand isn't going to kill negotiation later

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4 hours ago, WindyCity said:

2 may not be open for business.

I think you have the deal agreed to based on what happens in front of them.

I am fine with Fields or Wilson. I would try and make the move now so I have more clarity on QB and available resources.

 

1 hour ago, HuskieBear said:

I don't think it has to be one way or the other. say pace calls up MIA and asks what it would take, maybe throw out a low-ball initial offer like first, 2nd, first next year - then when it gets rejected before the draft, during the draft you call back up and make the same offer plus a 3rd and go from there. having the framework before hand isn't going to kill negotiation later

A LOT depends on what happens with Watson. Or, if anything happens with Watson. 

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7 hours ago, WindyCity said:

2 may not be open for business.

Agreed on that. And frankly I think Miami has less incentive to move down. That #3 pick is found money to them. They are going to basically fall into an elite prospect to add to a 10-6 team that probably already has its QB of the future. That’s an ideal situation. I can’t see them giving that up. Maybe move from 3 to 6 (where they almost certainly still add Chase or Smith), but not all the way down to 20. 

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ATL is keeping Matt Ryan at least for this year and possibly next year too. They could possibly take 2 #1 and 2 #2 to move to 20. Getting to 4 IMO still probably gets you Fields or Wilson.

But again, we can’t count on that. If our plan is to get one or the other at 4 and someone jumps up to 3 we are screwwwwwwwwwed. 

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37 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Agreed on that. And frankly I think Miami has less incentive to move down. That #3 pick is found money to them. They are going to basically fall into an elite prospect to add to a 10-6 team that probably already has its QB of the future. That’s an ideal situation. I can’t see them giving that up. Maybe move from 3 to 6 (where they almost certainly still add Chase or Smith), but not all the way down to 20. 

If they believe the Bears will be bad for years to come, they could multiply that money pretty easily. If we trade them multiple firsts and we miss on the QB, Miami is almost certainly guaranteed at least one top ten pick from us.

Edited by chisoxguy7
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7 hours ago, chisoxguy7 said:

If they believe the Bears will be bad for years to come, they could multiply that money pretty easily. If we trade them multiple firsts and we miss on the QB, Miami is almost certainly guaranteed at least one top ten pick from us.

We have had horrendous QB play in back to back seasons and still haven’t had higher than the 19th pick.

This team is QB proof in terms of being horrible.

They just can’t win anything of note because of the QB play.

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