What it would take to move up from #20 to each spot in the draft

[WindyCity]

8 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Agreed on that. And frankly I think Miami has less incentive to move down. That #3 pick is found money to them. They are going to basically fall into an elite prospect to add to a 10-6 team that probably already has its QB of the future. That’s an ideal situation. I can’t see them giving that up. Maybe move from 3 to 6 (where they almost certainly still add Chase or Smith), but not all the way down to 20. 

It would be a big ask and you would need to pay for it. I think it is unlikely as well.

My side hope is that the Eagles go QB and we can buy Hurts for cheap.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

It would be a big ask and you would need to pay for it. I think it is unlikely as well.

My side hope is that the Eagles go QB and we can buy Hurts for cheap.

I’m not super high on Hurts but I like him enough to give him a shot. He’s not a “big swing” though like Pace might be looking for though, and that too falls into the line where we might not be able to wait that long to address the position. Presumably any trade for Hurts is a draft day deal, and I just can’t see Pace heading to draft day at 20 with nothing but Foles at the position. He’s always been meticulous in hiding his draft day intentions. Going that route would be setting off sirens, fireworks and alarm bells all at the same time.

[WindyCity]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I’m not super high on Hurts but I like him enough to give him a shot. He’s not a “big swing” though like Pace might be looking for though, and that too falls into the line where we might not be able to wait that long to address the position. Presumably any trade for Hurts is a draft day deal, and I just can’t see Pace heading to draft day at 20 with nothing but Foles at the position. He’s always been meticulous in hiding his draft day intentions. Going that route would be setting off sirens, fireworks and alarm bells all at the same time.

I think it would be if Philly drafts a QB.

I expect we will add a veteran not named Foles, but that won't really hide our intentions.

[JAF-N72EX]

On 2/22/2021 at 10:58 AM, WindyCity said:

I would offer Miami

20

52

2022 1st

2023 2nd

 

If they say no, then okay.

On 2/22/2021 at 3:49 PM, AZBearsFan said:

IMO a trade to 3 only works if you make it on draft day after we are sure the guy we desire isn’t gone to the Jets at 2. For a deal that big and complex I don’t think you can get it together in a 10-minute time window. If we’re going up for Fields or Wilson I think it has to be all the way to 2. Trading what it’ll cost to get there has to be such that the only way our guy is gone is if he goes 1st which would leave us with Lawrence. 

On 2/22/2021 at 4:32 PM, WindyCity said:

2 may not be open for business.

I think you have the deal agreed to based on what happens in front of them.

I am fine with Fields or Wilson. I would try and make the move now so I have more clarity on QB and available resources.

On 2/22/2021 at 8:06 PM, HuskieBear said:

I don't think it has to be one way or the other. say pace calls up MIA and asks what it would take, maybe throw out a low-ball initial offer like first, 2nd, first next year - then when it gets rejected before the draft, during the draft you call back up and make the same offer plus a 3rd and go from there. having the framework before hand isn't going to kill negotiation later

On 2/23/2021 at 12:34 AM, chisoxguy7 said:

If they believe the Bears will be bad for years to come, they could multiply that money pretty easily. If we trade them multiple firsts and we miss on the QB, Miami is almost certainly guaranteed at least one top ten pick from us.

We don't have the resources to move up to #2 or #3. 

All of this talk about moving up to #2 is not even a realistic conversation to have.  It may be fun to discuss or imagine the what-if's, but it's far from reality.
Especially the #2 pick.  It's far too valuable, and we don't even have close to enough resources to pull it off even if we wanted to.

The draft value of the #2 pick is worth 717.  Our entire draft combined this year is only valued at 449.  That's how valuable the #2 pick is, and GMs treat it this way too.

Fun fact; Only 6 teams have traded the #2 pick in the last 35 years, and 4 of those 6 teams were traded to teams that had the 3rd overall pick. Again, that's how valuable the 2nd overall pick is.

Here is a list of teams that have moved up to 2nd overall in the last 35 years. 

2nd overall is valued at 717 points.

• 1985:  Oilers traded 1985 first + second (#3, #30) in exchange for Vikings #2 pick.
• Oilers draft value offer: 710 (+7 return value)
   
• 1988:  Chiefs traded 1988 first and second (#3, #29) in exchange for Lions #2 pick.
• Chiefs draft value offer: 717 (0 return value)
   
• 1997:  Raiders traded 1997 first, second, fourth (#10, #39, #104) and a player in exchange for Saints #2 pick + sixth (#166).
• Raiders draft value offer:  555 + player (+170 return value, player not included)
   
• 1998:  Chargers traded 1998 first, second (#3, #33), 1999 first, and 2 players in exchange for Cardinals #2 pick.
• Chargers draft value offer:  999 + 2 players (-282 return value, players not included)
   
• 2012:  Redskins traded 2012 first, second (#6, #39), 2013 first, and 2014 first in exchange for Rams #2 pick.
• Redskins draft value offer:  1209 (-492 return value)
   
• 2017: Ughh....do I have to? Bears traded 2017 first, third, fourth(#3, #67, #111), and 2018 fourth in exchange for 49ers 2nd pick.
• Bears draft value offer: 645 (+72 return value)

---------
Ask yourself. Why has no other team in the last 35 years that is drafting from 11th spot or later never tried to move up to #2? 

The answer is simple. The team trying to move up that far does not have enough resources to make sense for either side. It doesn't make any sense from a business or practical standpoint.

Think about it.  A team usually has the #2 pick because they're in bad shape, and they need a player who can make a difference right out the gate, and they also need as many resources as they can get to start the rebuild process.  So why would they move that far back in the draft without an insanely and historic amount of kick back that would make the RG3 trade look like child's play?

Think about it from the other end too and how many resources it would take to move from #20 to #2.   Remember what it took for us to only move up ONE spot to grab Mitch in 2017.  Now multiply that times 5.

That's pretty much an impossible trade to make.  

 

On 2/23/2021 at 12:00 AM, AZBearsFan said:

Agreed on that. And frankly I think Miami has less incentive to move down. That #3 pick is found money to them. They are going to basically fall into an elite prospect to add to a 10-6 team that probably already has its QB of the future. That’s an ideal situation. I can’t see them giving that up. Maybe move from 3 to 6 (where they almost certainly still add Chase or Smith), but not all the way down to 20. 

Pretty much. #3 is also out of question. Not only because MIA would not trade this far back in the draft, but we also don't have the resources that it take to make it happen.

Here is every trade made to move up to #3 in the last 35 years

1987:  Houston traded 1987 first and second (#8, #36) in exchange for Bills #3 pick.

1993:  Jets traded 1993 first (#4) in exchange for Cardinals #3 pick + player.

1997:  Falcons traded 1997 first, second, third, and fourth (#11, #41, #70, #100) in exchange for Seahawks #3 pick + third (#63).

2000:  Redskins traded both 2000 first's, a fourth and fifth (#12, #24, #118, #148) in exchange for 49ers #3 pick.

2012:  Browns traded 2012 first, fourth, fifth, and seventh (#4, #118, #139, #211) in exchange for Vikings #3 pick.

2013:  Dolphins traded 2013 first and second (#12, #42) in exchange for Raiders #3 pick.

2016:  Eagles traded 2016 first, third, fourth (#8, #77, #100),  2017 first, and 2018 second in exchange for Browns #2 pick and 2017 fourth.

2018: Jets traded 2018 first, two second round picks (#6, #37, #49), and 2019 second in exchange for Colts #3 pick.

 

Technically, it could  happen with alot of luck.  If you can get #4, which is ALOT in value, then you could get 3 too since the value difference between #3 and #4 is only 23 points higher. But it's not possible from a practical standpoint. 

Team wise, Miami is in a good position.  They're only a good QB away from being a true contender, and I can't see them giving up an opportunity to get one with either with Fields or Wilson. Especially right now with how the division is looking. The Jets are still in full rebuild, the patriots are spiraling downhill, and now they're only competing with the Bills.

Spoiler

 

 

[JAF-N72EX]

I've been busy, I'll get to 11-19 when I get a chance.

[AZBearsFan]

22 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

We don't have the resources to move up to #2 or #3. 

The 2016 Rams went from 15 all the way to 1.

Rams traded 2016 1, two 2016 2s and a 2016 3, plus a 1 and 3 in 2017 to TEN for #1 overall plus TEN’s 2016 4 and 6.

If they can get from 15 to 1 without even needing to go 2 years forward in picks then we could get from 20 to 2 or 3 if we really wanted to if those picks were put on the block (I doubt they will be).

[WindyCity]

26 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

The 2016 Rams went from 15 all the way to 1.

Rams traded 2016 1, two 2016 2s and a 2016 3, plus a 1 and 3 in 2017 to TEN for #1 overall plus TEN’s 2016 4 and 6.

If they can get from 15 to 1 without even needing to go 2 years forward in picks then we could get from 20 to 2 or 3 if we really wanted to if those picks were put on the block (I doubt they will be).

It would cost a ton, but it’s possible. If Miami wants Robinson it would be easier.

I still think the best thing for the Bears is if Watson or Wilson get traded and the Bears can get a discount on who they replace.

[JAF-N72EX]

13 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

The 2016 Rams went from 15 all the way to 1.

Rams traded 2016 1, two 2016 2s and a 2016 3, plus a 1 and 3 in 2017 to TEN for #1 overall plus TEN’s 2016 4 and 6.

If they can get from 15 to 1 without even needing to go 2 years forward in picks then we could get from 20 to 2 or 3 if we really wanted to if those picks were put on the block (I doubt they will be).

Cmon AZ, with all due respect, I don't think you thought this through because you're not making a fair comparison here. 

Not all draft picks are treated equal.  Claiming the Rams moved up with only one 1st, two 2nds, a third, etc mean nothing without context.  The Rams had more draft capital to offer in the first 2 rounds ALONE (514) than the Bears do in their entire draft combined (449).  

--The Rams had 645 points worth of draft capital to offer in the first 3 rounds alone while the bears only have 430 to offer.  That's a HUGE gap in value.  A 215 point difference in value to be exact. The gap difference is equivalent to a 1st round 28th overall pick.

--The Rams 2nd round picks alone have a combined value as our 1st round pick does.  The exact amount actually--269.
43rd = 138
45th = 131
20th = 269

--The Rams had the 15th spot while the Bears have the 20th, which is a 46 point difference in value--this gap difference is equivalent to a late 3rd round pick (89th).

--The Rams had two 2nd round picks (43rd and 45th) and both were in the top half of the round. The Bears have one 2nd round pick in the bottom half (52nd). Which is a 160 point difference in value--this gap difference is equivalent to an early 2nd round pick (37th)

As I said before, there's a reason no team has ever moved up that far in the draft.

#3 isn't impossible but it would take alot of luck.

Edited February 27, 2021 by JAF-N72EX

[AZBearsFan]

10 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Cmon AZ, with all due respect, I don't think you thought this through because you're not making a fair comparison here. 

Not all draft picks are treated equal.  Claiming the Rams moved up with only one 1st, two 2nds, a third, etc mean nothing without context.  The Rams had more draft capital to offer in the first 2 rounds ALONE (514) than the Bears do in their entire draft combined (449).  

--The Rams had 645 points worth of draft capital to offer in the first 3 rounds alone while the bears only have 430 to offer.  That's a HUGE gap in value.  A 215 point difference in value to be exact. The gap difference is equivalent to a 1st round 28th overall pick.

--The Rams 2nd round picks alone have a combined value as our 1st round pick does.  The exact amount actually--269.
43rd = 138
45th = 131
20th = 269

--The Rams had the 15th spot while the Bears have the 20th, which is a 46 point difference in value--this gap difference is equivalent to a late 3rd round pick (89th).

--The Rams had two 2nd round picks (43rd and 45th) and both were in the top half of the round. The Bears have one 2nd round pick in the bottom half (52nd). Which is a 160 point difference in value--this gap difference is equivalent to an early 2nd round pick (37th)

As I said before, there's a reason no team has ever moved up that far in the draft.

#3 isn't impossible but it would take alot of luck.

With all due respect that’s a whole lot of math that doesn’t consider at all that the Bears could include their #1 pick 2 years from now in the hypothetical deal (3 #1 picks total). Hell if they really wanted to they could add a 2 in 2023 as well. LA offered nothing in year 3. Also, some of the difference in pick value on whichever chart you’re using (I usually use the Jimmy Johnson one which has totally different values than those you listed) is also reduced by the fact that TEN sent back picks in round 4 and 6 of year 1, meaning they actually got less in net return than the 2 picks in each of rounds 1-3. A lot less? Not by chart value, but still less.

The value chart is a guide, not a catch all equation. LA went from 15 to 1 with 2 picks in each of rounds 1-3 over a 2-year window. You don’t think the Jets would have to strongly consider a similar package that offsets the value difference between a 2021 2 and a 2022 2 (LA gave 2 2s in year 1 didn’t give one in year 2) with an additional #1 pick in year 3? We’ll have to agree to disagree on that.

All I’m saying is I think it could be done by adding picks into the 3rd year, or a player or players. Just because it hasn’t been done before doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen this year, especially when you’re talking about desperate people like we all assume Pace is. Whether it should be done is an entirely different discussion. Like you said, there’s a reason it hasn’t happened before. Do I think it’d be a great idea to spend 3 firsts and then some to get something that isn’t a sure thing (like, say, Watson or Russ)? No, and neither does the league according to history. Is it possible and is it likely someone would pay the cost to do it are two different questions though. 

This is all almost certainly moot anyway though because for any of this to matter at all the Jets have to be willing to move down instead of taking their QBOC, which I don’t think they are. They’d be crazy to pass on Fields or Wilson in favor of keeping Darnold (last in QB rating, 33rd in QBR, 31st in YPG, 31st in INT% in 2020). Darnold’s failures may or may not have been a product of Gase and poor supporting cast, but I’m not bypassing a fresh prospect with a clean slate and a higher ceiling (which both Fields and Wilson have IMO) with 3 extra years of cost controlled salary to find out. Saleh isn’t expecting to draft in the top 2 again so the likelihood he will get another shot to draft this caliber of QB prospect again is pretty low. I’m relatively sure the only way they move out from 2 is if the return nets them one of Watson, Russ or Dak. 

[JAF-N72EX]

42 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

With all due respect that’s a whole lot of math that doesn’t consider at all that the Bears could include their #1 pick 2 years from now in the hypothetical deal (3 #1 picks total).

I didn't consider them because that would be insane. 

 

30 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

(I usually use the Jimmy Johnson one which has totally different values than those you listed)

The Jimmy Johnson value chart is very outdated. Especially since the 2011 CBA.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/10/bill-belichick-every-team-uses-the-same-draft-chart/

 

The 1990s Cowboys were built in large part by Jimmy Johnson’s wheeling and dealing with draft picks, and Johnson developed a chart that demonstrated how to value draft picks. Soon every other team started using the same chart.

That chart is now obsolete, as the rookie wage scale and research showing greater value in accumulating more picks has changed the way teams evaluate draft trades. But Patriots coach Bill Belichick says all teams have arrived at more or less the same place on how to value draft picks.

 

45 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

LA went from 15 to 1 with 2 picks in each of rounds 1-3 over a 2-year window. You don’t think the Jets would have to strongly consider a similar package that offsets the value difference between a 2021 2 and a 2022 2 (LA gave 2 2s in year 1 didn’t give one in year 2) with an additional #1 pick in year 3? We’ll have to agree to disagree on that.

This is confirmation bias at its best.

We don't have close to the same amount of valuable assets to offer as the Rams did. So no, not at all, not even at the expense of adding a 1st round pick in 2022.

56 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

All I’m saying is I think it could be done by adding picks into the 3rd year, or a player or players. Just because it hasn’t been done before doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen this year, especially when you’re talking about desperate people like we all assume Pace is.

If you wanna lean on that then that's your prerogative. Personally, I think history speaks for itself.  Pace isn't the first desperate GM and they couldn't get it done either from a late position.

But I agree. This is all a moot point anyhow. There is no way the Bears are moving up that far.

[AZBearsFan]

@JAF-N72EXSo the scenarios that go further than those you considered are insane, and thinking a team might consider accepting such a potential offer is confirmation bias? That’s pretty dismissive, no?

[Heinz D.]

On 2/26/2021 at 11:58 PM, WindyCity said:

It would cost a ton, but it’s possible. If Miami wants Robinson it would be easier.

Or Johnson, or Fuller, or Goldman, or Kmet, or...

[JAF-N72EX]

7 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

@JAF-N72EXSo the scenarios that go further than those you considered are insane, and thinking a team might consider accepting such a potential offer is confirmation bias? That’s pretty dismissive, no?

No but it's cute that you try to spin that way.

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

No but it's cute that you try to spin that way.

Dismissive and condescending? You must be fun at parties.

Take care, bud. 

[WindyCity]

The Eagles traded from 16 to 2 to take Carson Wentz.

They moved to 8 initially and then to 2.

Edited March 1, 2021 by WindyCity