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Houston is gonna drop the ball on Watson


Blue

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The longer this Watson situation drags on in Houston, the more I think the Texans are going to be absolutely fleeced by somebody come August when it becomes crystal clear Watson won't play for them. Why?

- Watson's value is never going to be higher than it is now, both in terms of him as a player and in terms of interested teams with valuable assets. Watson is already an MVP candidate talent at the most valuable position in sports. His cap hit for 2021 is a manageable $16 million before skyrocketing to $40+ million for the rest of the contract. His value can only go down from here; if he gets hurt, especially seriously like Alex Smith or Teddy Bridgewater, Houston will be lucky to get anything at all for him and still have to deal with his enormous cap hits in the future.

- There is literally never going to be a situation where Houston is going to get a better return in terms of assets than this offseason. A team is not going to trade the 1st overall pick, let alone that and other assets, for a QB on a second (market value) contract in a draft with a clear elite QB prospect: the value of having an elite quarterback on a below-market deal is such an unspeakably enormous competitive advantage that it would take a breathtakingly brave and/or stupid team to even consider it. But Houston is in the unique situation where the teams in the 2 and 3 slots A) need a QB, B) have young QBs to trade back, C) have multiple 1st rd picks this year, D) have desirable young talent, and E) play in the same division. I am at a total loss trying to envision a more perfect scenario to play teams off against each other to get the best offer possible. They're not going to have this kind of opportunity to maximize Watson's trade value--ever.

- The longer this goes on, the more likely it is that teams move on. Carolina, San Francisco, and Denver are not going to cling to $20 million in cap space on the chance that Houston comes to their senses in August and decides to trade Watson (although San Fran can easily move on from Garoppolo to clear that space). All those teams either have rosters ready to compete now or an owner who thinks they do. They're going to spend that money in free agency, and that's going to take them out of the Watson sweepstakes because of the cap. Other teams may feel comfortable with their rookie QB and avoid trading for Watson for the same reason that a team with the No. 1 pick wouldn't trade it for him.

- Even if Houston did trade Watson to one of those teams after the draft, they're not going to get nearly as good of a top pick out of it. Trading him now virtually assures a top-10 (and probably top-3) pick they can spend on a QB of their choice, if they want to go that route. Sending Watson to any of these teams after this draft practically guarantees that the highest pick they're getting back will be in the teens, if not even later.

- On top of that, the picks they can get for Watson this offseason are at their greatest value before they are used on specific players. If New York drafts a QB at No. 2 that Houston isn't high on, suddenly they're getting a much worse offer from the Jets--and what if Miami doesn't take a QB at No. 3 and the Texans don't want Tua? It's not so simple as "even if a team drafts a QB this year, they can just trade him to Houston as part of the Watson deal" because we know teams don't all rate QBs the same, and there's no guarantee the Texans will think highly of the QB their potential trade partner drafted. Trading for the pick before it's spent gives Houston the ability to pick a player they truly want.

Houston has all the leverage right now in Watson trade talks. It's very smart of them to realize they're better with Watson than a bevy of picks and assets, but I think Watson is serious about forcing his way out and they really need to recognize this relationship is not salvageable. If you know your franchise QB is going to force his way out, this is the kind of dream scenario to trade him that we would all laugh at as unrealistic if someone made it into a movie. They need to either get serious about trading Watson now, or start making big concessions to show they're listening to him, if it's not already too late for that.

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8 minutes ago, Blue said:

They need to either get serious about trading Watson now, or start making big concessions to show they're listening to him, if it's not already too late for that.

It's too late for that.

Please remember, this is 2/3rd the group that felt as if David Johnson and a 2nd round pick was fair compensation for DeAndre Hopkins. "Maximizing value" isn't on the menu on Kirby Ave.

The Texans are going to completely botch this, because they're too busy trying to be smart and think outside the box - sometimes, conventional thinking is necessary just to get out of a tailspin such as this. But the Texans are too busy trying to find new and creative ways to become the village idiot to ever work out of this one.

I'm already on record - Texans are going to go 0-16 next season. They may not believe it, but they're on the clock for Sam Howell or Spencer Rattler right now.

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5 minutes ago, ET80 said:

It's too late for that.

Please remember, this is 2/3rd the group that felt as if David Johnson and a 2nd round pick was fair compensation for DeAndre Hopkins. "Maximizing value" isn't on the menu on Kirby Ave.

The Texans are going to completely botch this, because they're too busy trying to be smart and think outside the box - sometimes, conventional thinking is necessary just to get out of a tailspin such as this. But the Texans are too busy trying to find new and creative ways to become the village idiot to ever work out of this one.

I'm already on record - Texans are going to go 0-16 next season. They may not believe it, but they're on the clock for Sam Howell or Spencer Rattler right now.

I don't even think it's that--I think this is a far more basic ego situation. McNair doesn't want to set the precedent that players can make demands of ownership because he doesn't want the players to know they have that kind of leverage.

Edited by Blue
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Oh my god, I even forgot about his no-trade clause. They can't even trade wherever they want, he has to agree to it. That's not a huge deal if Watson really wants out, but imagine if Watson refuses to play for the team that makes the best offer.

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6 minutes ago, Blue said:

Oh my god, I even forgot about his no-trade clause. They can't even trade wherever they want, he has to agree to it. That's not a huge deal if Watson really wants out, but imagine if Watson refuses to play for the team that makes the best offer.

...or he doesn't want his future team paying the kind of haul it would/should take to acquire him. :) 

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7 minutes ago, Blue said:

I don't even think it's that--I think this is a far more basic ego situation. McNair doesn't want to set the precedent that players can make demands of ownership because he doesn't want the players to know they have that kind of leverage.

I think it's simpler than that - Cal McNair is a dummy. A simpleton.

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2 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

I agree Watson value is highest now (will only reduce).. but with Miami the only team on Watson list, the longer Houston waits the lower return they get. If Watson opens up to more teams, that helps Houston. 

Miami isn't the only team on his list. Multiple reports that he wants to go to the Jets too, I believe.

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TBH, I think that Miami is the one team going to drop the ball here because of what they feel they have "invested" in Tua. If you would have told them last year:

You can have Watson for Tunsil and your 2020 1st round pick, plus maybe some other later picks...they do it in a heartbeat...but they aren't going to think about it that way.

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Just now, Blue said:

Miami isn't the only team on his list. Multiple reports that he wants to go to the Jets too, I believe.

That's been refuted and revived about a hundred times - there's nothing to really base either on, just conjecture.

My personal theory is that the Texans leaked that original interest list. It seems odd that the two interested teams happened to own pick 2/3 and had extra picks in this draft. Seemed too convenient for the Texans that the two teams interested had the most to offer THIS upcoming draft.

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There are 3 routes Houston can go

  1. Actively shop Watson - Get 2-4 teams to submit formal offers and start to pit them against each other. This option maximizes the return
  2. Actively refuse to move Watson and try to repair the relationship - You face the risk of Watson not bluffing, giving you a horrific season, and leaving this cloud over your head. It also has the upside of Watson playing (and still probably having a horrific season)
  3. Wait around a while, ultimately decide you have to cave, and move Watson later - by this point several teams have moved on and made other plans. You might only have 1 team with a strong offer and lose a good portion of leverage

I would do #1. It sucks, but if you can get an absolute haul, you still have the ability to rebuild. It seems they are going for route 2. It might work out for them, it might not. My big fear for Houston fans is that they don't seem to be actively repairing the relationship. I don't think communication is happening from what I've heard and I don't see how this resolves in a good outcome. Which makes me worry that #3 happens and they end up getting $0.80 on the dollar when they could otherwise maybe get $1.20.

I don't trust this team to not screw it up, and if I'm a big name FA, the move would have to be VERY enticing to make me choose Houston over a good number of other teams that are out there

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19 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

There are 3 routes Houston can go

  1. Actively shop Watson - Get 2-4 teams to submit formal offers and start to pit them against each other. This option maximizes the return
  2. Actively refuse to move Watson and try to repair the relationship - You face the risk of Watson not bluffing, giving you a horrific season, and leaving this cloud over your head. It also has the upside of Watson playing (and still probably having a horrific season)
  3. Wait around a while, ultimately decide you have to cave, and move Watson later - by this point several teams have moved on and made other plans. You might only have 1 team with a strong offer and lose a good portion of leverage

I would do #1. It sucks, but if you can get an absolute haul, you still have the ability to rebuild. It seems they are going for route 2. It might work out for them, it might not. My big fear for Houston fans is that they don't seem to be actively repairing the relationship. I don't think communication is happening from what I've heard and I don't see how this resolves in a good outcome. Which makes me worry that #3 happens and they end up getting $0.80 on the dollar when they could otherwise maybe get $1.20.

I don't trust this team to not screw it up, and if I'm a big name FA, the move would have to be VERY enticing to make me choose Houston over a good number of other teams that are out there

I say 2 and collect your money back if he sits out and force him to fulfill the contract he signed 6 months ago and if he doesnt, then retire. No matter what you trade him for, its not going to be the value he is worth. Your paying him more money to not be on the team then he is. When was the last time a qb in his prime was traded that was not contractual or money related issues? Eli Manning outside of that who? 

There are some implications that people (ie fans and media) do not talk about. 1 is the amount of money that the organization has to give up if they trade him, I am not talking about cap I am talking about what was contractually agreed on in which the signing bonus and then some other guarantees were out of the owners pocket that he is pissing away. #2 is organizations (31 teams) including NFL execs have to be stepping in behind close doors to force the texans not to be making the trade as then it will start to be a snowball effect where other players view it as a prime qb in his career who just signed a massive deal also got to be traded. That will then start putting in to play inferior talent can start demanding that they not only have say on contract negotiations but other things such as GM, HC, and roster say if not then you trade me. While the NBA has the ability to do this because all contracts are essentially guaranteed and the rosters are much smaller the NFL should not allow the players to make one small step in that direction as it could lead to more in the future. 

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27 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

I say 2 and collect your money back if he sits out and force him to fulfill the contract he signed 6 months ago and if he doesnt, then retire. No matter what you trade him for, its not going to be the value he is worth. Your paying him more money to not be on the team then he is. When was the last time a qb in his prime was traded that was not contractual or money related issues? Eli Manning outside of that who? 

There are some implications that people (ie fans and media) do not talk about. 1 is the amount of money that the organization has to give up if they trade him, I am not talking about cap I am talking about what was contractually agreed on in which the signing bonus and then some other guarantees were out of the owners pocket that he is pissing away. #2 is organizations (31 teams) including NFL execs have to be stepping in behind close doors to force the texans not to be making the trade as then it will start to be a snowball effect where other players view it as a prime qb in his career who just signed a massive deal also got to be traded. That will then start putting in to play inferior talent can start demanding that they not only have say on contract negotiations but other things such as GM, HC, and roster say if not then you trade me. While the NBA has the ability to do this because all contracts are essentially guaranteed and the rosters are much smaller the NFL should not allow the players to make one small step in that direction as it could lead to more in the future. 

I would say there is a 0% chance that the NFL owners/execs are going to collude to force Watson to stay

The slippery slope has already begun. The battle between "power" between QBs and the team has been going on for a while, and this is only one more instance. 

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3 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

I would say there is a 0% chance that the NFL owners/execs are going to collude to force Watson to stay

The slippery slope has already begun. The battle between "power" between QBs and the team has been going on for a while, and this is only one more instance. 

I see it as you have to. If you don't then the flood gates will open. I think there is a range of what an organization can and cannot do without the influence of other organizations: when it comes to positional contracts, and when it comes to trades. Once you step or look to step outside that range you have multiple owners calling up that team and saying this cant be done or it will cause a larger issue then it is. Players already have the leverage on contracts you can not allow their leverage on trades at the same time, by allowing Watson to do this you lose all leverage moving forward. If watson was older, or didn't sign a long term extension with in a season, or didn't perform top 5 like he did, then I say a trade wouldnt be that big of a deal but he hit all 3 and I dont see how this can be overlooked by the other 31 teams, or 30 who aren't involved in a trade.

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