iknowcool Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 (edited) And are we going to act like the Texans didn't win 10+ games in both 2018 and 2019, and that Watson has as many playoff wins as Lamar? This isn't me trying to say one is better than the other. But trying to hold winning, or lack thereof, against Watson is just a silly, short-sighted argument. Ravens are rarely ever in a position to be that bad. 2015 is the only year in the Harbaugh era where they had fewer than 8 wins. It is crazy to try and compare them to the 2020 Texans. Texans were bad because they fired their bad HC, who was also their GM, and made a lot of dumb personnel and trade decisions. Watson is no less capable of winning than Jackson. Edited February 24, 2021 by iknowcool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinebackerGod Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 I know Watson is good, but some of these trade packages are absurd. I would 10000% move him for 3 1st round picks. Panthers fans saying that they would give up 3 1sts, Jeremy Chinn, and Derrick Brown for Watson? That seems insane to me. If I were Houston, I would take the trade in a heartbeat and run like a thief in the night. That's an insane amount of draft capital and good young talent to begin a rebuild with. Houston is best off nuking this whole thing. Their organization really screwed the pooch with the Hopkins trade. After that, it seemed like the whole morale of the organization plummeted and has now rotted this franchise to the very bottom. I know there isn't much hope with the current regime that is in charge, but the best bet now is just go to nuclear and try to regain some draft capital, which was idiotically thrown away for decent players. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soflbillsfan Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Dr A W Niloc said: I agree in general but Lawrence-for-Watson is an exceptional case because it is the only win-win trade conceivable. Indeed, I can imagine the fans of both teams doing cartwheels at the news. All other offers will involve the other team exhausting its draft capital for Pick #1. Zero sum gain. Hardly worth the effort to reconfigure. By contrast, in Lawrence-for-Watson Houston gets a generational talent who fits their profile while getting rid of someone who doesn't want to play there any more. We bear in mind that, based on Watson's success, Houston might believe they have a talent for developing QBs. Jacksonville? David Garrard, Luke McCown, Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, Blake Bortles, Gardner Minshew? Not so much. The Jags won't sweat the cap hit, obviously. They get the league's best QB as a proven quantity (i.e. "A bird in hand is worth two in the bush"). Better yet, Watson is a QB who, unlike Mahomes, Rodgers, and Brady, has recent experience with a squad even worse than the Jags. In addition to being #1 in cap space, the Jags have the draft picks to surround Watson with the best talent he's seen since his glory days. Having the veteran (Watson) instead of the rookie (Lawrence) QB fast-forwards Jacksonville's development/transition time. What objection do you think either team would have to this specific trade? (I agree wholeheartedly that Watson should deal away Watson before draft day.) Agreed. There is no way Lamar Jackson would win 4 games in Houston. If the Jacksonville braintrust evaluates individuals based on team Win/Loss records you're probably right. Urban went to Jacksonville specifically to coach Lawrence. I do not see any reason to tie the history of the jags to what they are doing now. Lawrence is being discussed as one of the most pro ready qbs to come out since Andrew Luck, you just dont give up on that for Watson. Had Lawrence said you know what I am going to stay at Clemson, then this story would be different. The team and organization is set around Lawrence being the QB there as Urban wouldn't have taken the job. In no such way would you ever make that move. All those qbs you talked about dont even scratch the surface of Lawrence potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJaxxenGuy Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 (edited) 14 minutes ago, iknowcool said: Packers went 6-10 in 2008 and 6-9-1 in 2018 Colts went 6-10 in 2001 Saints went 7-9 3 consecutive years What is your opinion on Rodgers, Manning, and Brees? Well it seems like in their very worst seasons win/loss wise they still managed more wins than Watson in a year that people are claiming was his best. So, their floor for W/L is multiple games higher than Watson’s, makes sense to me because they were better quarterbacks. 7-9 is a lot less damning on a QB than 4-12 also this is another discussion but I’ve never been that high on Brees Edited February 24, 2021 by ThatJaxxenGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 hour ago, MWil23 said: However, you can't cherry pick the "weapons" argument on throwing to guys and omit the other "weapons" that Lamar has at his disposal, on defense (hence a good part of the W/L record, as the Texans D is substantially worse than Baltimore), where they were drafted (Lamar was drafted onto an already playoff caliber team, whereas the Texans were not that), how Baltimore has an elite OL/running game and Watson was barely able to be kept upright pre-trades and have virtually no running game, and how scheme/coaching has factored in. Yeah, that's kind of why I didn't even bring up W's and L's, or team success, I fully admit Lamar has a better defense/organization around him. My main point with that post was that Deshaun's stats get pimped out a ton, but when it comes down to it, he's had much better weapons the past 2 years, has thrown the ball 270+ times more, and has been down in games much more (lending to better passing stats) and he still doesn't have more passing TDs than Lamar. But the passing discrepancy between the two is usually the first thing pointed out. This wasn't a "Lamar vs Deshaun" as players post - at least it wasn't intended to be. It was just a look at the most common claim between them - that Deshaun somehow dominates him when it comes to throwing the ball - and despite all of these factors (when it comes to passing success, not team success) in Deshaun's favor - that's not really the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJaxxenGuy Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 (edited) The Jets are a less talented team than the Texans with a similarly bad head coach (Gase is probably worse than BOB and Romeo Crennel, who’s won a playoff game). they won 2 games. Call me crazy but I feel like an Elite QB season should be worth more than 2 wins over contemporary Sam Darnold and the corpse of Joe Flacco. People are entitled to be impressed by Watson this past season, but it’s not anything crazy to think it wasn’t that great of a year for him. like I’ve maintained, Watson is a good/great QB but the idea that the Ravens would swap Lamar for him just isn’t based in fact or context. The Texans would be absolute bandits to make out of this horrible situation they’re in with a former MVP who is younger than the guy he’s replacing ( a guy who is currently threatening to hold out next season). Good luck ever attracting a free agent again when you’re the team who ships out the youngest MVP in league history for someone who one way or the other likely moves the needle on your team an insubstantial amount. Edited February 24, 2021 by ThatJaxxenGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalvadorsDeli Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, iknowcool said: And are we going to act like the Texans didn't win 10+ games in both 2018 and 2019, and that Watson has as many playoff wins as Lamar? This isn't me trying to say one is better than the other. But trying to hold winning, or lack thereof, against Watson is just a silly, short-sighted argument. Ravens are rarely ever in a position to be that bad. 2015 is the only year in the Harbaugh era where they had fewer than 8 wins. It is crazy to try and compare them to the 2020 Texans. To me it's not that we need to hold it against Watson that he didn't win in 2020. It's more that there's not really much acknowledgment that there's a pretty clear relationship between him not winning and his individual stock going up. If you really wanted to compare Lamar and Deshaun in 2020, then you'd have to say they both pretty much did what they were meant to do in their situation. Lamar's situation is optimized for winning games and that's what he did. Deshaun's situation was optimized for putting up gaudy stats and that's what he did. On the whole I do think Deshaun had a better season than Lamar in 2020 even when controlling for the different scenarios, but the gap is significantly closer than I think it's really acknowledged, simply because people look at Deshaun's box score stats and assume that he'd do even better on a good team rather than the more likely scenario that he'd be sacrificing some of that individual glory for team success. And that's sort of borne out in his own experiences, too. The more interesting question for me here isn't Deshaun vs. Lamar but more why everyone's estimation of Deshaun has grown so much from 2019 to 2020 (which is at least my impression of the situation). In 2019 on a better team, Deshaun puts up good but not CRAZY stats and helps the Texans get to the divisional round. He is certainly highly regarded but fast forward a year and after throwing a third of his touchdowns and a quarter of his yards when losing by 2+ scores, he's now talked about as being a clear step ahead of everyone other than Mahomes. The best argument for that is that he proved he can ball without DeAndre Hopkins and there's some truth to it, but airing it out to Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller in a season's worth of low-stakes garbage time is a pretty good situation for piling up the numbers as well. The difference between the two years isn't really so much that Watson is a dramatically different player but just that playing on a bad team actually helps good QB's from an individual standpoint. It's not like Watson is the only guy we've seen this with - you see it all the time with the way people talk about Stafford, for example, and we saw a version of that with Brees as well. None of that means Watson isn't awesome but the baked-in assumption a lot of people make with him is to look at 2020 and say, "wow, imagine what he could do with a good team!" and the reality is that him on a good team is actually something closer to 2019 Deshaun rather than getting 2020 output with a better record. Edited February 24, 2021 by SalvadorsDeli 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, ThatJaxxenGuy said: I’m Mainly addressing this towards the “Ravens would swap Lamar for Watson in a heartbeat” comment. That would never happen. Sure, I'm not engaging in that discussion (outside of a joke in another thread). Do you. 12 minutes ago, ThatJaxxenGuy said: However, the idea that the Ravens would swap Lamar for Watson I can’t let fly. We’re good thanks, I’ll take the former MVP, who’s younger and puts up more points with a less talented offensive supporting cast. I disagree here. Better WRs, sure. A push at LT, IMO. Outside of that, everything - and I mean EVERYTHING - is heavily slanted towards the Ravens. Better IOL, better RT, MUCH better TEs, MUCH better RBs. And that's not even going into the disaster that is the Texans defense. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalvadorsDeli Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 (edited) 22 minutes ago, ET80 said: Sure, I'm not engaging in that discussion (outside of a joke in another thread). Do you. I disagree here. Better WRs, sure. A push at LT, IMO. Outside of that, everything - and I mean EVERYTHING - is heavily slanted towards the Ravens. Better IOL, better RT, MUCH better TEs, MUCH better RBs. And that's not even going into the disaster that is the Texans defense. Ronnie Stanley played 5 games this year before going on IR. Once he went down we had one good offensive lineman in Brown and then a bunch of mostly crap along the rest of the line. There's a reason both Harbaugh and DeCosta have all but said that revamping IOL is basically priority #1 for the team this offseason. Better running game for sure but that's the sort of thing that will help the team but not necessarily Lamar's own output, same as having a good defense. In terms of the pieces that directly impact each player's output, both had bad offensive lines and Watson had significantly better receiving options as well as game scripts that were far better set up for him to shine from an individual standpoint. If we're comparing the two then everything was set up this year basically for Watson to put up video game stats and for Lamar to win more games and both of them did that. Like I said above I do think Watson was better than Lamar this year but it's not really the exaggerated difference are making it out to be in this thread, and that comes a year after Lamar was demonstrably better than Watson. So as far as why we're not banging down the door trying to make the trade, as a Ravens fan I'm more than willing (and as some of my fellow Ravens fans in this thread will attest to, probably a little annoyingly desperate about) to have us further build around Lamar and see how he can grow with weapons more on par with what many of his peer young QB's are getting rather than contemplating a trade. Edited February 24, 2021 by SalvadorsDeli 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 21 minutes ago, SalvadorsDeli said: Ronnie Stanley played 5 games this year before going on IR. Once he went down we had one good offensive lineman in Brown and then a bunch of mostly crap along the rest of the line. Still better than the likes of Senio Kelemete, Zach Fulton and Nick Martin... Those three have been bad for several years together. 22 minutes ago, SalvadorsDeli said: Like I said above I do think Watson was better than Lamar this year but it's not really the exaggerated difference are making it out to be in this thread, and that comes a year after Lamar was demonstrably better than Watson. I can buy into this, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 hour ago, SalvadorsDeli said: To me it's not that we need to hold it against Watson that he didn't win in 2020. It's more that there's not really much acknowledgment that there's a pretty clear relationship between him not winning and his individual stock going up. I think I can explain this - the reaction isn't necessarily because he's not winning. The reaction is counter to the narrative in 2018/2019, which was "Yeah, it's easy to look like a great QB when DeAndre Hopkins is making incredible circus catches..." In this specific praise, it's not because W/L. It's because he proved that old viewpoint wrong - no Hopkins (or Fuller for five games) and the Texans boasted a top 3 passing offense. There's a bit of an overcorrection, I can buy that - that happens when a theory from prior years turns out to be absolutely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iknowcool Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, SalvadorsDeli said: And that's sort of borne out in his own experiences, too. The more interesting question for me here isn't Deshaun vs. Lamar but more why everyone's estimation of Deshaun has grown so much from 2019 to 2020 (which is at least my impression of the situation). In 2019 on a better team, Deshaun puts up good but not CRAZY stats and helps the Texans get to the divisional round. He is certainly highly regarded but fast forward a year and after throwing a third of his touchdowns and a quarter of his yards when losing by 2+ scores, he's now talked about as being a clear step ahead of everyone other than Mahomes. The best argument for that is that he proved he can ball without DeAndre Hopkins and there's some truth to it, but airing it out to Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller in a season's worth of low-stakes garbage time is a pretty good situation for piling up the numbers as well. I kind of get what you are saying here. I do think, in a way, his stock has risen in a lot of peoples eyes after 2020. But I think that has more to do with people viewing the Texans in such a bad light, and people just respect what he's done more than they used to (warranted or not is aside the point). Even before 2020 though, his name was being thrown around as a top 5 QB. These are rankings by big media prior to 2020: NFL.com had him at #4 NBC had him at #6 PFF had him at #6 and added that the main thing holding him back was the ugly games he would have. I'm not a Texans fan so I could be wrong having not watched all 16 of their games, but I did feel his performances were more consistent in 2020. That is one of the reasons his stock rose for me personally. CBS had him at #6 ESPN had him at #4 SI had him at #6 (well, technically this is ranking every team's QB situation, but still) Yahoo had him at #4 A lot harder to figure out where each casual fan had him ranked, obviously, but a poll on Reddit saw Watson get voted at #6 This is the most recent FF thread ranking QBs prior to 2020. And mostly everyone had Watson no lower than 6th, which matches up with the media rankings. So, like I said, I kind of get what you are saying. It definitely feels like, even before this saga, people were talking a little bit more glowingly about Watson than before. But it isn't like he wasn't widely seen as a top-6 QB beforehand. On top of that, one of the guys typically placed ahead of him in those lists was Drew Brees, who is no longer a factor. And I don't think anyone (well, most people) actually thinks Watson is the #2 QB in the NFL right now, but he's rightfully seen as the future of the position along with Mahomes and Jackson. And again, while I'm not really interested in debating Watson vs Jackson (because I think both are great), it is pretty clear why some people would be more bullish on Watson's future than they are Jackson's. I'd imagine that most rational people agree Watson isn't better than Rodgers or Russ yet, but he's probably the next guy behind them and when you consider Brees is retired, it means he's seen in basically the same light now as he was last year when it comes to where he falls on the QB hierarchy. I like both Jackson and Watson a lot. If I had to choose, I'd have to go Watson. I don't think the Ravens passing issues fall squarely on Jackson, and personally I think they are making a mistake keeping Greg Roman another season if developing a functional passing game that can thrive in the playoffs is the goal. Jackson is a good enough passer to be better than their playoff passing productivity to date and there are things around him that need to improve. With that said, Watson is pretty clearly the better passer. Jackson is the more dynamic playmaker, and when he is on he is ON and arguably only Mahomes and Rodgers are better when that happens, but Watson's game translates to more consistent success in the playoffs than Jackson's in my opinion. But I also get taking Jackson over Watson, which is why it isn't a debate that really interests me. Both are great young QBs. Really just comes down to preference. I think it is easier for a great defense to limit Jackson's game than it is to limit Watson's, but Jackson has more "take over the game and will your team to victory" potential than Watson, which is what I love about him the most. Edited February 24, 2021 by iknowcool 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 hour ago, SalvadorsDeli said: The best argument for that is that he proved he can ball without DeAndre Hopkins and there's some truth to it, but airing it out to Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller in a season's worth of low-stakes garbage time is a pretty good situation for piling up the numbers as well. This is incorrect. 8 of the 12 losses were in one score games; 6 of those 8 losses were within the final 2:00 of the game (2x vs Tennessee, 2x vs Indianapolis, Minnesota, Cincinnati). Texans lost this year, I get that. But they were competetive in just about every game (KC, Baltimore, Green Bay and Chicago were the four decided by greater than a single score). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, ET80 said: This is incorrect. 8 of the 12 losses were in one score games; 4 of those 8 losses were within the final 1:00 of the game (2x vs Tennessee and 2x vs Indianapolis). Texans lost, I get that. But they were competetive in just about every game (KC, Baltimore, Green Bay and Chicago were the four decided by greater than a single score. Tidbit from another thread. You’ve watched them in depth, but even statistically, the numbers don’t support that Watson was a garbage time stat padder. On 2/21/2021 at 1:57 PM, Yin-Yang said: Watson was second to only Aaron Rodgers (9.5 vs 9.6) in AY/A. Mahomes was third at 8.9, SB winner Tom Brady (with those loaded weapons) was 10th with 8.0, moon ball Russell Wilson was 11th with 7.9, and former league MVP was T-15th with 7.6. Watson led the league in YPA with 8.9. Cousins was second with 8.3, only Mahomes/Rodgers even got above 8. Watson’s depth of target is identical to last year’s, without Hopkins, but he threw 50 more balls. The air yards/completion are up. His TD% is up. His ANY/A (by nearly 25% which is crazy). His INT% is down. Passer rating is up. Yards are up. Completion % is up. Guy threw 14 TDs/1 INT when trailing by one score. 19 TDs/3 INTs when the it’s a one score game (or less) in either direction. Has more passing yards and more passing attempts in the 1st half than he does in the second half. Houston was 18th in scoring while the run game was 30th/31st in rushing (running backs rushed for 7 TDs...on the season). So he’s throwing more in the 1st half than the second, performs well when the game is tight, is throwing deeper and with more efficiency than in any previous years, placing top 10 in TD%, and elevating the Texans offense 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalvadorsDeli Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 (edited) 16 minutes ago, ET80 said: This is incorrect. 8 of the 12 losses were in one score games; 6 of those 8 losses were within the final 2:00 of the game (2x vs Tennessee, 2x vs Indianapolis, Minnesota, Cincinnati). Texans lost this year, I get that. But they were competetive in just about every game (KC, Baltimore, Green Bay and Chicago were the four decided by greater than a single score). I'm not really talking just about in-game situations when I say garbage time, though it certainly did play a role in Watson pumping his stats in 2020: 9 of his 33 TD throws came when he was down 2+ scores and he racked up over a thousand extra yards of passing in those scenarios. I'm also just talking about broader team context. The Texans were out of the playoff hunt early enough in the season that he basically just played ~half a season of a different version of garbage time. there just wasn't the same kind of pressure that comes with approaching November and December games in the playoff hunt, with each increasing week taking on the feeling of being a win-or-go-home kind of game. There's just a different atmosphere and IMO an easier atmosphere to perform in to a late-season tiff between 4-11 teams and everyone's sorta just playing for themselves compared to what its like when you feel accountable to your team's championship aspirations. None of that means Watson wasn't playing well, or that he didn't keep many games competitive, but I just think we've seen time and time again that basically good QB's are well set up to take advantage of those low-stakes kind of scenarios and we can sometimes get carried away with how we evaluate those performances. Edited February 24, 2021 by SalvadorsDeli Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts