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Houston is gonna drop the ball on Watson


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2 hours ago, GodOfLinebackers said:

I know Watson is good, but some of these trade packages are absurd. I would 10000% move him for 3 1st round picks.

 

Panthers fans saying that they would give up 3 1sts, Jeremy Chinn, and Derrick Brown for Watson? That seems insane to me. If I were Houston, I would take the trade in a heartbeat and run like a thief in the night. That's an insane amount of draft capital and good young talent to begin a rebuild with.

 

Houston is best off nuking this whole thing. Their organization really screwed the pooch with the Hopkins trade. After that, it seemed like the whole morale of the organization plummeted and has now rotted this franchise to the very bottom. I know there isn't much hope with the current regime that is in charge, but the best bet now is just go to nuclear and try to regain some draft capital, which was idiotically thrown away for decent players.

I couldnt agree more with this. Watson for 3 firsts, 2 seconds and players in ridiculous. Hes a great QB, but trading that much away hurts your ability to build around him for years to come, you better get starters in the mid-rounds if thats the case.

Secondly, the Texans are better off burning the whole thing to the ground like you stated. Take a massive trade package and run similar to how the OKC Thunder did in the NBA and now the have 17 first round picks. The Browns did that in 2017, scrapped every player of value for picks, had a treasure chest of 1s, 2s and 3s and was actually able to build a team from scratch sort of like a accelerated expansion.

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12 minutes ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

I'm not really talking just about in-game situations when I say garbage time, though it certainly did play a role in Watson pumping his stats in 2020: 9 of his 33 TD throws came when he was down 2+ scores and he racked up over a thousand extra yards of passing in those scenarios.

I'm also just talking about broader team context. The Texans were out of the playoff hunt early enough in the season that he basically just played ~half a season of a different version of garbage time. there just wasn't the same kind of pressure that comes with approaching November and December games in the playoff hunt, with each increasing week taking on the feeling of being a win-or-go-home kind of game. There's just a different atmosphere and IMO an easier atmosphere to perform in to a late-season tiff between 4-11 teams and everyone's sorta just playing for themselves compared to what its like when you feel accountable to your team's championship aspirations.

None of that means Watson wasn't playing well, or that he didn't keep many games competitive, but I just think we've seen time and time again that basically good QB's are well set up to take advantage of those low-stakes kind of scenarios and we can sometimes get carried away with how we evaluate those performances. 

Wouldn’t playing with a deflated team make it harder to perform? 

Watson also threw a TD for every ~16 pass attempts in a 0-7 margin game. That only jumps to 1/15 at 15+, with almost half the pass attempts. The first down percentage is slightly higher in the 15+ margin (43% vs 39.8%), while the passer rating is higher in the close margin games (115 vs 113.2). The passer rating is only a 0.8% different. The YPA is again, only slightly different (8.97 vs 8.89). So yeah, overall you could probably say his efficiency went up in two+ score games...very slightly. 

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5 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Wouldn’t playing with a deflated team make it harder to perform? 

Maybe? We're obviously getting pretty speculative at this point so you can probably make the case for either side. My general opinion on the matter is that those conditions just tend to make it easier for good players to perform at really high levels. Bad players tanking on defense just means that as long as guys like Watson and Brandon Cooks are still bringing it they're gonna really be able to eat.

And it does seem like in those quasi-exhibition/low-stakes games the defense end up tanking harder than offenses, for whatever reason. It's why you get wacky Week 17 scores sometimes and late-season fantasy legends like Billy Volek/Drew Bennett, Breshad Perriman, and Matt Flynn who come out of nowhere or that insane game where Jerome Harrison nearly broke the single-game rushing record for the Browns. Feels like you see more of that than bad teams playing out 9-6 slopfests against each other at the end of the season. 

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36 minutes ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

Maybe? We're obviously getting pretty speculative at this point so you can probably make the case for either side. My general opinion on the matter is that those conditions just tend to make it easier for good players to perform at really high levels. Bad players tanking on defense just means that as long as guys like Watson and Brandon Cooks are still bringing it they're gonna really be able to eat.

And it does seem like in those quasi-exhibition/low-stakes games the defense end up tanking harder than offenses, for whatever reason. It's why you get wacky Week 17 scores sometimes and late-season fantasy legends like Billy Volek/Drew Bennett, Breshad Perriman, and Matt Flynn who come out of nowhere or that insane game where Jerome Harrison nearly broke the single-game rushing record for the Browns. Feels like you see more of that than bad teams playing out 9-6 slopfests against each other at the end of the season. 

If they made it easier, it really only barely showed up in the numbers - at least in those two score deficits. 

And with 8/12 games being one score, then that means either A) the defense didn’t tank in effort, or B) the defense did tank in effort, but the offense was able to keep the game close.

And even if we were to roll with the idea that the defense tanked, that means they somehow underperformed, right? Sort of implies you expect more out of them, when they leave a lot to be desired. JJ’s the lone talent on the line (which is why he was able to be the most doubled edge rusher in 2020), you could’ve maybe expected more out of Mercilus but he’s been on the downswing for a bit now. Cunningham’s definitely a quality player and you have to like Reid’s overall game, but when 3/4 (in play time) of your top DBs are Lonnie Johnson, Eric Murray, and Vernon Hargreaves...I don’t see how you expect much out of that. That’s a unit that last season, while they were winning, was middle of the pack (19th to points allowed) to bad (28th in yards, 25-31st in per drive stats) with Gipson/Roby/Joseph filling out those DB spots. Plus Reader and a lot more of McKinney in the front 7. 

So did the Texans deflate? I’m sure they did in the midst of their season and their FO.  But I just don’t see anything of substance that suggests that that was the cause of a defensive regression or effected Watson’s output.

 

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6 hours ago, MWil23 said:

My...how the people here would have hated young Michael Jordan, clearly the best in the NBA, before he got a coach and Pippen around him.

I still remember Watson getting roped into trash talk against some of our scrubs in the playoffs when they blew the lead. It was such an obvious what are you doing man moment. Even ignoring the ball velocity, he still has some growing up to do. It's hard for me to imagine him not letting this michael jordan praise get to his head at all. He's got one playoff win but is treated like a multi time champion it's bizzare to me.

I'd rather just draft my own rookie who will be cheap for some years than give up 5 premium picks for the 2nd highest paid guy in the league who is like 9th on my list for who id take as my QB going into next season.

 

 

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On 2/23/2021 at 9:23 PM, Blue said:

I am realistic, the only teams that wouldn't make a straight-up trade are the Chiefs, Seahawks, maybe the Bills and Packers.

Geez, y'all thinking that Baltimore wouldn't trade Lamar Jackson for Deshaun Watson straight up in a heartbeat are utterly delusional.

I'm happy with Herbert for the Chargers, thank you very much. Maybe if we had Tua, I would change my mind. But I like what I saw of Herbert from his rookie season. And he has potential to be better with a lower salary. So thanks, but no thanks to Watson straight up.

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14 hours ago, Kirill said:

for the 2nd highest paid guy in the league who is like 9th on my list for who id take as my QB going into next season.

L

O

L

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8 hours ago, Xenos said:

I'm happy with Herbert for the Chargers, thank you very much. Maybe if we had Tua, I would change my mind. But I like what I saw of Herbert from his rookie season. And he has potential to be better with a lower salary. So thanks, but no thanks to Watson straight up.

Your team would trade Herbert for Watson one-for-one absolutely no questions asked if Houston lost their minds and accepted that deal.

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4 minutes ago, Blue said:

Your team would trade Herbert for Watson one-for-one absolutely no questions asked if Houston lost their minds and accepted that deal.

I'm not so sure about that. Herbert has 3 more years on a rookie contract plus the 5th year extension, while Watson is about to have a cap hit of 40

If you trust Herbert, and I think the Chargers do, there is a lot of value in having that extra 30-35M to spend on talent around him

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7 minutes ago, Blue said:

Your team would trade Herbert for Watson one-for-one absolutely no questions asked if Houston lost their minds and accepted that deal.

No they wouldn't.

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also @Blue change the title already

everyone has agreed its unnecessary. If we're talking about Houston/Watson/trade partners keep it to Houston/Watson/trade partners

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How far do you have to go before you get to Watson on the QB list, not including age:

Rodgers/Mahomes

MAYBE Tom Brady

Watson/Allen

...to me, that's the list.

Throw in AGE, and you get Mahomes as about the only guy above him...and maybe there's an argument for a guy still on a rookie contract like Allen/Herbert for the sheer sake of contract/cap space.

Throw in other guys you may want to argue for, like Lamar Jackson for a few people, or the upside of a guy like Joe Burrow (unproven/injured) or the upside of Trevor Lawrence...but I'm not sure you could really argue anyone else. 

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14 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

I'm not so sure about that. Herbert has 3 more years on a rookie contract plus the 5th year extension, while Watson is about to have a cap hit of 40

If you trust Herbert, and I think the Chargers do, there is a lot of value in having that extra 30-35M to spend on talent around him

 

13 minutes ago, Kirill said:

No they wouldn't.

They would because Watson is a known, proven commodity and Herbert isn't. Yes, Herbert had a great rookie season and I think he's a franchise QB-but if they want to compete in a division with Patrick Mahomes, I think they would take a sure thing in his prime rather than spending years developing Herbert and hoping he continues to improve.

I don't dispute the cap space and picks are very valuable, though, and it would be a tougher decision than a place like Baltimore or Cincinnati.

8 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

also @Blue change the title already

everyone has agreed its unnecessary. If we're talking about Houston/Watson/trade partners keep it to Houston/Watson/trade partners

If the Falcons fans can't handle some ribbing over the biggest blown lead in Super Bowl history, they need to grow up.

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