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Houston is gonna drop the ball on Watson


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Just now, indifference said:

Prayers brother. Mac Jones is going to suck IMO

I'm very well aware. Mac Jones looked as good as he did playing for Alabama - he'll be joining a Texans team that would probably lose to that same Alabama team.

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OK Watson did what you'd expect, and stuck to his guns when meeting the new HC:

Houston's FO saying they're not dealing Watson now, also expected.  Gotta say this is a different way to handle interested prospective buyers, though.

 

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There's no reason to deal him right away. He's locked into a contract, they get money back if he sits, they lose money if they trade him, his value won't go down if they trade him this time next year. Time is on their side. 

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3 minutes ago, lancerman said:

There's no reason to deal him right away. He's locked into a contract, they get money back if he sits, they lose money if they trade him, his value won't go down if they trade him this time next year. Time is on their side. 

New head coach will face a media circus for a year though with reporters asking every day about Watson, and they won't stop. It will be worse if the team is losing games. Also, all Watson has to do if they play hardball is have one sit-down interview to air the Houston Texans' dirty laundry.

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1 minute ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

New head coach will face a media circus for a year though with reporters asking every day about Watson, and they won't stop. It will be worse if the team is losing games. Also, all Watson has to do if they play hardball is have one sit-down interview to air the Houston Texans' dirty laundry.

They hired a 60 something year old first time coach who is probably going to retire in the next 3 years. He isn't longterm. Watson has no leverage. He has a contract and the new CBA minimizes team risk if he sits. Teams will still trade for him in the next two years if things are unsavlageable.

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On 2/22/2021 at 3:23 PM, Tk3 said:

There are 3 routes Houston can go

  1. Actively shop Watson - Get 2-4 teams to submit formal offers and start to pit them against each other. This option maximizes the return
  2. Actively refuse to move Watson and try to repair the relationship - You face the risk of Watson not bluffing, giving you a horrific season, and leaving this cloud over your head. It also has the upside of Watson playing (and still probably having a horrific season)
  3. Wait around a while, ultimately decide you have to cave, and move Watson later - by this point several teams have moved on and made other plans. You might only have 1 team with a strong offer and lose a good portion of leverage

I would do #1. It sucks, but if you can get an absolute haul, you still have the ability to rebuild. It seems they are going for route 2. It might work out for them, it might not. My big fear for Houston fans is that they don't seem to be actively repairing the relationship. I don't think communication is happening from what I've heard and I don't see how this resolves in a good outcome. Which makes me worry that #3 happens and they end up getting $0.80 on the dollar when they could otherwise maybe get $1.20.

I don't trust this team to not screw it up, and if I'm a big name FA, the move would have to be VERY enticing to make me choose Houston over a good number of other teams that are out there

I would go with #2. Dare him to sit. No matter the return, it won't match the value of a true franchise QB. If they have to move him later, there will always be a market for a QB like that, but they should do all they can not to get there. 

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1 hour ago, lancerman said:

They hired a 60 something year old first time coach who is probably going to retire in the next 3 years. He isn't longterm. Watson has no leverage. He has a contract and the new CBA minimizes team risk if he sits. Teams will still trade for him in the next two years if things are unsavlageable.

He has no contractual leverage, sure.  But I disagree with the idea that he has no leverage at all.  He's making the Texans a very undesirable destination for any free agent, especially one looking to win-now, because nobody knows about his future.  He's almost certainly going to hurt the locker-room morale.  Not saying teammates will dislike him or not take his side but at the end of the day, its your QB, your leader, making it clear he doesn't want to play for your team.  He's almost certainly going to hold out OTAs and most, if not all of training camp, making it very difficult to implement your offensive system to the extent that you would be able to if Watson is there.  And this is a team that without a lot of cap or draft capital will need all the work in TC they can get.  Whether he chooses to go this route or not, Watson could simply show up out of shape.  He could exaggerate injuries.  He can ruin the teams image.  

Watson has plenty of leverage he can use as the QB and leader of the team.  His actions will absolutely affect the performance and morale of the team.  Sure yeah the Texans hold the leverage of not having to get rid of them if they don't want to, but Watson has the leverage of making an already bad team in a bad position even worse.  And if the Texans are cool with it, then so be it that is the leverage they have - they can ride this out however long and see if Watson changes his stance.  

But IMO if that doesn't happen.  Then the Texans are essentially wasting the next 2 years.  And sure, they could probably get about the same compensation in 2023 or however long they decide to hang onto a disgruntled Watson (if that is how it plays out) - but then at the end of the day you just made a decision that you probably should have just made in 2021.

Texans are smart to hang onto Watson and see what happens.  But let's not act like there isn't a lot of risk on the Texans end in doing so.  If Watson blows up your locker-room or decides to be less committed to being great for the Texans, then the benefit of having a great QB in the first place goes out of the window for the next 1 or 2 years because your team isn't making the playoffs anyway.  

Anything can happen though.  Obviously no guarantee Watson goes through with any of what I said.  But he's got leverage if he chooses to use it.  And the Texans have the leverage of choosing how to handle it.  In my opinion though the Texans are not going to be a playoff team with a ticked off Watson.  And if you aren't making the playoffs, then does it really matter if you have an elite QB?  And if the Texans perspective is okay, we'll ride this out for a season or two and see if he changes his mind, and he doesn't, then in hindsight it becomes a bad decision.  Because you could have started the rebuild sooner.  We'll see how it plays out though.

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3 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Also, all Watson has to do if they play hardball is have one sit-down interview to air the Houston Texans' dirty laundry.

I would love to see that. It would be breathtaking theater. Put these franchises under scrutiny for a change and specifically Jack Easterby. The despicable demographic needs to be defined and exposed. Watson wins long term even if his playing career takes a hit. Kaepernick will be one of the legendary NFL figures from this era, whether that demographic likes it or not. That demographic enabled it. 

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3 hours ago, WideRight said:

I would go with #2. Dare him to sit. No matter the return, it won't match the value of a true franchise QB. If they have to move him later, there will always be a market for a QB like that, but they should do all they can not to get there. 

This right now is Caserio’s mindset because he doesn’t want to be the first ever GM to trade a superstar QB in his prime.  But, he’s smart and knows this can’t drag on into training camp.  Being a rookie HC is hard enough when you’re not dealing with an epic distraction.  I’m sure we’ll get the Shefter tweet about 2 weeks before the draft that they’ve starting to field calls. 

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8 hours ago, iknowcool said:

He has no contractual leverage, sure.  But I disagree with the idea that he has no leverage at all.  He's making the Texans a very undesirable destination for any free agent, especially one looking to win-now, because nobody knows about his future. 

 

They will be a very desireable destination for free agents, just like the Raiders were at the end of the Al Davis era.

The problem is that you'll only attract very mediocre free agents and only because you pay them way to much. As in Javon Walker $55 million or Gibril Wilson $39 million for a handfull of games. 

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I can’t imagine the nightmare it would be (since Chicago has had an endless supply of god awful qbs (besides Jay Cutty)) to draft a franchise QB that could go down as the best in franchise history and have him desperately never wanting to play for your franchise again after a few seasons. 

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7 minutes ago, Ty21 said:

I can’t imagine the nightmare it would be (since Chicago has had an endless supply of god awful qbs (besides Jay Cutty)) to draft a franchise QB that could go down as the best in franchise history and have him desperately never wanting to play for your franchise again after a few seasons. 

Nightmare is exactly the word I'd use. I'm waiting to wake up and know this was all a dream and Watson is eager to get to work in Houston with Jack Easterby gone, Cal McNair back in the background, Omar Khan at GM and Matt Eberflus as HC. Seriously, just wake me up please...

It's seriously killing all passion I have for football, I'm simply not into it with this cloud hanging over our heads. People are trying to talk about a haul for Watson, how good Zach Wilson or Tua Tagovailoa could be, how Quinnen Williams or Xavian Howard would be for our defense - it's all white noise to me, because I don't trust the franchise to make any sort of sound decision.

The Texans will find a way to royally screw it up again, have to tear it down again... and then, trust the same stupid people to try to build it back up.

It's defeating. Simply defeating. If Cal announced he was moving the team to OKC, I'd help them pack up and leave the state, then just give up on having a vested interest in any team. I'd go rogue and hate every team equally.

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What happens if this holdout goes to week 10 or whatever, and Watson realizes he needs to keep the contract moving

Can he show up for the last 6 games, suit up, and refuse to step on the field? 

In that scenario, presumably Houston can fine him to the point where he makes no money, but that still advances him to the next year of his contract, right?

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1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Nightmare is exactly the word I'd use. I'm waiting to wake up and know this was all a dream and Watson is eager to get to work in Houston with Jack Easterby gone, Cal McNair back in the background, Omar Khan at GM and Matt Eberflus as HC. Seriously, just wake me up please...

It's seriously killing all passion I have for football, I'm simply not into it with this cloud hanging over our heads. People are trying to talk about a haul for Watson, how good Zach Wilson or Tua Tagovailoa could be, how Quinnen Williams or Xavian Howard would be for our defense - it's all white noise to me, because I don't trust the franchise to make any sort of sound decision.

The Texans will find a way to royally screw it up again, have to tear it down again... and then, trust the same stupid people to try to build it back up.

It's defeating. Simply defeating. If Cal announced he was moving the team to OKC, I'd help them pack up and leave the state, then just give up on having a vested interest in any team. I'd go rogue and hate every team equally.

This is how I felt when Rankin Smith owned the Falcons. When he sold to Arthur Blank, it was obvious that the team was going to be moving in a positive direction. And Blank at least showed he gave a damn. I'd love to see someone come in and buy the Texans and make them better top to bottom. But Easterby and McNair are definitely the problem. I don't honestly hate the move of Caserio. He's a smart GM and Belichick would override him for drafts. But the HC should have been Bienemy.

27 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

What happens if this holdout goes to week 10 or whatever, and Watson realizes he needs to keep the contract moving

Can he show up for the last 6 games, suit up, and refuse to step on the field? 

In that scenario, presumably Houston can fine him to the point where he makes no money, but that still advances him to the next year of his contract, right?

They can't fine him that much by CBA rules. But yes, if he's listed as active for 6 games, the year moves.

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