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Houston is gonna drop the ball on Watson


Blue

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If I were the new GM and HC I would give Watson a compromise solution. I would ask him to give them 12 months of production to see if they could turn the culture of the franchise around. If Watson still felt the same way in 12 months then they would assist him to get to his next destination. This gives Watson and Houston an out with the angst right now. Also I don't think his trade market will have depleted unless he has a major injury. However if it is agreed, and then Houston changes it's mind in 12 months time, then the **** really hits the fan.

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On 2/22/2021 at 2:12 PM, Blue said:

The longer this Watson situation drags on in Houston, the more I think the Texans are going to be absolutely fleeced by somebody come August when it becomes crystal clear Watson won't play for them. Why?

- Watson's value is never going to be higher than it is now, both in terms of him as a player and in terms of interested teams with valuable assets. Watson is already an MVP candidate talent at the most valuable position in sports. His cap hit for 2021 is a manageable $16 million before skyrocketing to $40+ million for the rest of the contract. His value can only go down from here; if he gets hurt, especially seriously like Alex Smith or Teddy Bridgewater, Houston will be lucky to get anything at all for him and still have to deal with his enormous cap hits in the future.

- There is literally never going to be a situation where Houston is going to get a better return in terms of assets than this offseason. A team is not going to trade the 1st overall pick, let alone that and other assets, for a QB on a second (market value) contract in a draft with a clear elite QB prospect: the value of having an elite quarterback on a below-market deal is such an unspeakably enormous competitive advantage that it would take a breathtakingly brave and/or stupid team to even consider it. But Houston is in the unique situation where the teams in the 2 and 3 slots A) need a QB, B) have young QBs to trade back, C) have multiple 1st rd picks this year, D) have desirable young talent, and E) play in the same division. I am at a total loss trying to envision a more perfect scenario to play teams off against each other to get the best offer possible. They're not going to have this kind of opportunity to maximize Watson's trade value--ever.

- The longer this goes on, the more likely it is that teams move on. Carolina, San Francisco, and Denver are not going to cling to $20 million in cap space on the chance that Houston comes to their senses in August and decides to trade Watson (although San Fran can easily move on from Garoppolo to clear that space). All those teams either have rosters ready to compete now or an owner who thinks they do. They're going to spend that money in free agency, and that's going to take them out of the Watson sweepstakes because of the cap. Other teams may feel comfortable with their rookie QB and avoid trading for Watson for the same reason that a team with the No. 1 pick wouldn't trade it for him.

- Even if Houston did trade Watson to one of those teams after the draft, they're not going to get nearly as good of a top pick out of it. Trading him now virtually assures a top-10 (and probably top-3) pick they can spend on a QB of their choice, if they want to go that route. Sending Watson to any of these teams after this draft practically guarantees that the highest pick they're getting back will be in the teens, if not even later.

- On top of that, the picks they can get for Watson this offseason are at their greatest value before they are used on specific players. If New York drafts a QB at No. 2 that Houston isn't high on, suddenly they're getting a much worse offer from the Jets--and what if Miami doesn't take a QB at No. 3 and the Texans don't want Tua? It's not so simple as "even if a team drafts a QB this year, they can just trade him to Houston as part of the Watson deal" because we know teams don't all rate QBs the same, and there's no guarantee the Texans will think highly of the QB their potential trade partner drafted. Trading for the pick before it's spent gives Houston the ability to pick a player they truly want.

Houston has all the leverage right now in Watson trade talks. It's very smart of them to realize they're better with Watson than a bevy of picks and assets, but I think Watson is serious about forcing his way out and they really need to recognize this relationship is not salvageable. If you know your franchise QB is going to force his way out, this is the kind of dream scenario to trade him that we would all laugh at as unrealistic if someone made it into a movie. They need to either get serious about trading Watson now, or start making big concessions to show they're listening to him, if it's not already too late for that.

Agreed. Classic case of sunk cost fallacy. This relationship is irreparable IMO. Get the best value that you can at this point.

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7 hours ago, Dingo18287 said:

I think the fact that Jack Easterby has some how not “voluntarily” stepped down speaks volumes about how much of a bum he is. Most normal people would have figured out they should probably step away by now. 

Come on man, we all know he’s doing “important” work. He’s casting out all the teams “sinners.” Deshaun needs to repent and fall in-line IMO....

Edited by diamondbull424
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On 2/26/2021 at 9:03 PM, ET80 said:

Once O'Brien was fired - Easterby "did everything except call plays" according to sources. He had Any Palcic fired because of comments she made following the election (given the McNair's political leanings, I'll let you guess who Palcic talked about) and he ran Jamey Rootes out - a guy Bob McNair considered like a son. That's not Executive Assistant, that's a Dictator executing rebels in the town square. This isn't staying in his lane, this is driving backwards while drifting across a busy highway, flipping people off the whole time...

This dude Easterby sounds like Emperor Palpatine, the real life Phantom Menace. I mean to execute this plan this way was flawless. This is Order 66 stuff. 

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On 2/27/2021 at 4:52 PM, Melbourne 9er said:

If I were the new GM and HC I would give Watson a compromise solution. I would ask him to give them 12 months of production to see if they could turn the culture of the franchise around. If Watson still felt the same way in 12 months then they would assist him to get to his next destination. This gives Watson and Houston an out with the angst right now. Also I don't think his trade market will have depleted unless he has a major injury. However if it is agreed, and then Houston changes it's mind in 12 months time, then the **** really hits the fan.

you can't do that anymore...it might have been an option 6 months ago, but Watson has crossed the Rubicon and he isn't going to change his mind. You also have to acknowledge that you can't take half measures with QBs and HCs because of their leadership roles on the team. You can't have a leader who says:
"They forced me to stick around for a wasted year"

All IN or All OUT are the only options for those 2 roles and All Out is the only one left at this juncture. The Easterby's just had to put up enough of a public "no trade stance !"  to give themselves cover and claim they tried. But zero chance the Houston Easterby's are gonna move forward with any team leaders who aren't True Believers.
see Hopkins, Watt et al. 

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14 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

you can't do that anymore...it might have been an option 6 months ago, but Watson has crossed the Rubicon and he isn't going to change his mind. You also have to acknowledge that you can't take half measures with QBs and HCs because of their leadership roles on the team. You can't have a leader who says:
"They forced me to stick around for a wasted year"

All IN or All OUT are the only options for those 2 roles and All Out is the only one left at this juncture. The Easterby's just had to put up enough of a public "no trade stance !"  to give themselves cover and claim they tried. But zero chance the Houston Easterby's are gonna move forward with any team leaders who aren't True Believers.
see Hopkins, Watt et al. 

When beat guys like McClain say it's time to listen - basically, the FO has already conceded they're listening.    McClain is famous for carrying their water, he's eaten a lot of crow when the FO has backed off their stances (FO isn't taking Clowney 1.1, Nuk not getting traded, Watson not getting traded, etc.).    Him conceding that it's time to start listening, it speaks volumes to what the FO is saying in private.

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On 2/26/2021 at 11:47 AM, Nabbs4u said:

I might agree with this take if Watson didn't just sign his $160M extension 5 months ago.

Thoughts on Kyle Van Noy getting cut less than a year after signing a 4/$51mm extension with the Dolphins? Or is this take only applicable when the players have issues with the team, and the team can operate with impunity?

Deshaun holds out/demands a trade: He signed a contract, how dare he!

Player gets cut with years left on their deal: The team signed a contract, how dare they...

Right?

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Here is the thing, from my point of view. First of all I can't blame a team for not wanting to get rid of an exceptional talent at QB considering how hard it is to acquire such a talent.  Having said that the Texans have done a horrendous job putting together any semblance of a competitive team since well... they were formed (with a few playoff appearances as exceptions).

They've gotten to the point where many players simply don't want to be there. 

So if they really think forcing Watson to be on the roster is gonna make things better, I personally think they're in for a rude awakening.

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10 hours ago, ET80 said:

Thoughts on Kyle Van Noy getting cut less than a year after signing a 4/$51mm extension with the Dolphins? Or is this take only applicable when the players have issues with the team, and the team can operate with impunity?

Deshaun holds out/demands a trade: He signed a contract, how dare he!

Player gets cut with years left on their deal: The team signed a contract, how dare they...

Right?

Difference is that when you get cut the franchise still is acting within what was agreed: Player gets a guaranteed $ amount and upside in $ if the team decides to keep the player on the roster. When a team cuts a player they still kept their part of the contract. 

Holding out isnt part of the contract and as much as i understand why Watson wants out it certainly is not comparable with van noy getting cut.

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13 hours ago, ET80 said:

Thoughts on Kyle Van Noy getting cut less than a year after signing a 4/$51mm extension with the Dolphins? Or is this take only applicable when the players have issues with the team, and the team can operate with impunity?

Deshaun holds out/demands a trade: He signed a contract, how dare he!

Player gets cut with years left on their deal: The team signed a contract, how dare they...

Right?

Agree 100%.

I was signed by a PL team aged 6 let go at 10 then signed with a different PL side. From the age of 6 to 18 I was signed in the academy of two PL sides and then at 18 you just get told no thanks in a five min interview. Zero loyalty or compassion. 
 

That’s why I always side with the players...teams treat their players like moveable pieces and will make decisions without a second thought. That player may have developed good community programs, have their children in school etc and they just get the chop.

As soon as players want more money or have an issue fans jump all over them. Such contradictory 😂

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18 minutes ago, xenajets said:

Agree 100%.

I was signed by a PL team aged 6 let go at 10 then signed with a different PL side. From the age of 6 to 18 I was signed in the academy of two PL sides and then at 18 you just get told no thanks in a five min interview. Zero loyalty or compassion. 
 

 

I thought you were brought up from the Napoli ranks, Fabio ?

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