Houston is gonna drop the ball on Watson

[ET80]

4 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

I think y'all shouldn't care one bit about getting a player in return (unless its someone you can flip for more draft capital)

I sort of agree to this - in the respect that is what a competent group would do. If you're blowing it up, go nuclear and plan on losing out. This FO really believes they can compete, because goodness knows you compete by cutting your best defensive player and trading a top 5 QB after signing them to an extension.

I've said it before, I'll say it again - if the Texans land 1.8 from Carolina they ARE going to select Alabama QB Mac Jones at that spot. Write it in ink, carve it into the sidewalk, get a tat if that's your thing; Jones will be the QB for the Texans in 2021...

...and it's going to be a glorious disaster. 

[Blue]

1 hour ago, soflbillsfan said:

You have no idea if he will play, he has 30 mil riding on him this year each time he sits out he will be fined and that signing bonus he just got of 20 mil will be sent back to the organization. You honestly dont think he will be pressured to at least show up to prevent that? Money is on the line for him just as much as it is on the line for the Texans its not a simple I took money from you and I will sit out if you dont trade me. Those acts can cost him millions.

You're right, I don't know that he's going to sit out--but there is zero upside for Watson to not sit out. He's going to be playing on a bad team, for a coach he doesn't want, and risking injury with every snap he takes. It doesn't sound like Watson is committed to sitting out yet, but when it gets to August and the Texans still won't budge on trading him, I wonder if his agent will talk some sense into him.

You're dead wrong on the money side of things though, Le'veon Bell literally did this two years ago and still got paid. Plus Watson has already been paid his signing bonus up front, he's not paying any of that money back. The worst Houston can do is fine him.

[Tk3]

Just now, ET80 said:

I sort of agree to this - in the respect that is what a competent group would do. If you're blowing it up, go nuclear and plan on losing out. This FO really believes they can compete, because goodness knows you compete by cutting your best defensive player and trading a top 5 QB after signing them to an extension.

I've said it before, I'll say it again - if the Texans land 1.8 from Carolina they ARE going to select Alabama QB Mac Jones at that spot. Write it in ink, carve it into the sidewalk, get a tat if that's your thing; Jones will be the QB for the Texans in 2021...

...and it's going to be a glorious disaster. 

Building a 6-7 win team is the worst thing a team can do when you have a choice between adding players and amassing draft capital

I am adamantly against players tanking. I am adamantly against coaches tanking. Tanking a specific game to improve a draft pick is BS

However, I am fully in support of a front office making a short term decision to amass longer term assets in lieu of trying to maximize short term wins in a season where playoffs are completely unfeasible

Drafting a Mac Jones should be sickening to a full rebuilding team. Drafting a Mac Jones is a decision a win-now team can take a gamble on if they have an old QB and they need to groom one... But frankly I see Mac Jones as a Mason Rudolph type of guy who should go 2nd-3rd round, but QB market is intense at the moment

[thebestever6]

4 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I sort of agree to this - in the respect that is what a competent group would do. If you're blowing it up, go nuclear and plan on losing out. This FO really believes they can compete, because goodness knows you compete by cutting your best defensive player and trading a top 5 QB after signing them to an extension.

I've said it before, I'll say it again - if the Texans land 1.8 from Carolina they ARE going to select Alabama QB Mac Jones at that spot. Write it in ink, carve it into the sidewalk, get a tat if that's your thing; Jones will be the QB for the Texans in 2021...

...and it's going to be a glorious disaster. 

What if Mac was the next Brady and Easterby got the credit lmao 🤣

[ET80]

6 minutes ago, Blue said:

You're dead wrong on the money side of things though, Le'veon Bell literally did this two years ago and still got paid. Plus Watson has already been paid his signing bonus up front, he's not paying any of that money back. The worst Houston can do is fine him.

Lev Bell was going into a contract year as a tagged player - for a similar outcome, Watson would have to do this for five consecutive years. Furthermore, the fines are now part of the CBA, the Texans couldn't rescind fines even if they wanted to:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29553309/expect-nfl-training-camp-holdouts-2020-why-to-do-coronavirus

And while a portion of the signing bonus was paid up front, it's not the full amount that was due to him - much of it is yearly signing/workout bonuses, which are certainly in jeopardy if he doesn't show up.

Fines are fines, that'll impact game checks - but the signing bonuses are staggered across the years, so he'd be in a spot to lose a LOT of money, more money than majority of people will ever see.

[Blue]

Just now, ET80 said:

Lev Bell was going into a contract year as a tagged player - for a similar outcome, Watson would have to do this for five consecutive years.

And while a portion of the signing bonus was paid up front, it's not the full amount that was due to him - much of it is yearly signing/workout bonuses, which are certainly in jeopardy if he doesn't show up.

Fines are fines, that'll impact game checks - but the signing bonuses are staggered across the years, so he'd be in a spot to lose a LOT of money, more money than majority of people will ever see.

Houston will budge first--they're not going to keep taking Watson's cap hits year after year and not get anything from him.

He's already made more money than the majority of people will ever see. If that was his priority, he wouldn't be trying to force his way out of Houston. The Texans hold a lot of the cards here; if he truly wants out, he has to go hard to force their hand.

[Tk3]

10 minutes ago, Blue said:

Houston will budge first--they're not going to keep taking Watson's cap hits year after year and not get anything from him.

He's already made more money than the majority of people will ever see. If that was his priority, he wouldn't be trying to force his way out of Houston. The Texans hold a lot of the cards here; if he truly wants out, he has to go hard to force their hand.

This..

It will be a big financial loss for Watson to sit out a season or more - but it will be a tremendous burden on the Texans as well. Just because they cash won't go into Watson's pockets doesn't mean they can spend that money elsewhere. They still have to keep that cap money on Watson in case he reports. They can't reallocate.

They will be absolutely crippled if he choses to do so

edit: I suppose this is a much bigger issue in 2022 when his cap hit balloons than 2021

Edited February 23, 2021 by Tk3

[ravishingone]

11 minutes ago, Blue said:

Houston will budge first--they're not going to keep taking Watson's cap hits year after year and not get anything from him.

He's already made more money than the majority of people will ever see. If that was his priority, he wouldn't be trying to force his way out of Houston. The Texans hold a lot of the cards here; if he truly wants out, he has to go hard to force their hand.

If Watson is a no show, he will get fined daily during training camp and then miss game checks.  It gets murky for me if the team can try and recoup signing bonus money.

If Watson s conviction is that strong, I can appreciate that stance.  If he s on some type of prolonged absence, I m assuming there is some type of "Did not report" where he will not count against the 53 man roster and salary cap.

IMO, I m not sure either side has that much leverage over the other.  I cannot speculate how it will end.  I do know every morsel of information the media will relentlessly be analyzed and speculated.

Edited February 23, 2021 by ravishingone

[Blue]

5 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

They still have to keep that cap money on Watson in case he reports. They can't reallocate.

 

They will be absolutely crippled if he choses to do so

edit: I suppose this is a much bigger issue in 2022 when his cap hit balloons than 2021

This is the consideration Houston has to face. In the unlikely scenario they keep Watson through the 2021 season and he actually plays the 6 games required to accrue a season towards free agency, they're in the exact same situation next year--and almost certainly with a vastly worse hand to play in trade talks.

Edited February 23, 2021 by Blue

[soflbillsfan]

14 minutes ago, Blue said:

You're right, I don't know that he's going to sit out--but there is zero upside for Watson to not sit out. He's going to be playing on a bad team, for a coach he doesn't want, and risking injury with every snap he takes. It doesn't sound like Watson is committed to sitting out yet, but when it gets to August and the Texans still won't budge on trading him, I wonder if his agent will talk some sense into him.

You're dead wrong on the money side of things though, Le'veon Bell literally did this two years ago and still got paid. Plus Watson has already been paid his signing bonus up front, he's not paying any of that money back. The worst Houston can do is fine him.

A ton of players play on crap teams thats how it goes at times. He had an opportunity to get out of this franchise by forcing the team to trade him prior to the extension or play out his rookie deal and then trade him on his final year. Then the trade issues would be with in reason for him but when you have an organization sucked in to more dead money then what his cap hit is this year along with other financial cost that went in to it, his leverage dropped. 

Im dead wrong on what? Bell sat out on the franchise tag and lost 15 mil for it. The steelers moved on and didnt elect to tag him again releasing his rights so he can hit FA. He then signed with the Jets. This scenario is nothing what Watson is in right now. 

Yes you pay money back just cause you get it in the form of a signing bonus you still have to fulfill the duties of the contract and if you do not then the team has every right to recoup that bonus on top of not paying him plus fining him. 

[ThatJaxxenGuy]

2 hours ago, Kirill said:

Watson is mad overrated. He doesn't process the game quick enough or throw the ball fast enough to be worth a crap ton of picks

check out the comparison forum, FF doesn’t take kindly to anything short of outright worship of Watson’s fantasy points. I got shredded for not thinking Watson took his game to new heights in a season where he lost 12 games.

 

Edited February 23, 2021 by ThatJaxxenGuy

[ET80]

20 minutes ago, Blue said:

Houston will budge first--they're not going to keep taking Watson's cap hits year after year and not get anything from him.

A few things, courtesy of Spotrac:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/deshaun-watson-21753/

- Watson's cap hit is slated at $15.4mm, with a dead cap of $67mm. In essence, sitting Watson would cost the Texans $15.4mm against the cap, trading him would levy a whopping $52mm dead cap hit (or roughly 30% of the cap). So it is considerably cheaper to let Watson sit 2021.

- If Watson were to sit in 2021 for all 16 games, his contract does not toll... So it would remain $15.4m/$67m every year, until Watson played the required six games in a season to qualify for a year of service.

- OK, let's say Watson fakes an injury for 10 weeks and then plays the last six games; Contract tolls and the cap hit starts off at $40mm, dead cap at $51mm - so roughly an $11mm delta. Much more manageable.

So, it actually behooves the Texans to call Watson on his bluff - they avoid the significant cap hit, and then they showcase Watson for six games to maintain his value, or rinse and repeat calling his bluff every year.

One thing for certain - the Texans aren't exactly altruistic in relation to their prisoners. Letting Watson spoil on the vine is better than wrecking their cap in their eyes.

[Blue]

Just now, soflbillsfan said:

A ton of players play on crap teams thats how it goes at times. He had an opportunity to get out of this franchise by forcing the team to trade him prior to the extension or play out his rookie deal and then trade him on his final year. Then the trade issues would be with in reason for him but when you have an organization sucked in to more dead money then what his cap hit is this year along with other financial cost that went in to it, his leverage dropped. 

Im dead wrong on what? Bell sat out on the franchise tag and lost 15 mil for it. The steelers moved on and didnt elect to tag him again releasing his rights so he can hit FA. He then signed with the Jets. This scenario is nothing what Watson is in right now. 

Yes you pay money back just cause you get it in the form of a signing bonus you still have to fulfill the duties of the contract and if you do not then the team has every right to recoup that bonus on top of not paying him plus fining him. 

You're right on Bell, I'm misremembering--he never signed the franchise tag, so he didn't get paid.

Watson definitely screwed himself here signing the extension; if he was still on his rookie deal only, he would have a lot more leverage. But they're not gonna get any money back from him--they will trade him long before that becomes a real possibility.

[soflbillsfan]

7 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

This..

It will be a big financial loss for Watson to sit out a season or more - but it will be a tremendous burden on the Texans as well. Just because they cash won't go into Watson's pockets doesn't mean they can spend that money elsewhere. They still have to keep that cap money on Watson in case he reports. They can't reallocate.

They will be absolutely crippled if he choses to do so

edit: I suppose this is a much bigger issue in 2022 when his cap hit balloons than 2021

They cant reallocate it in 2021 however what ever money that is not being spent in 2021 will be rolled over in 2022 if the organization elects to use it. Not only that but the cost of Watson sitting out in 2021 will be now pushed a year in which the 2021 cap hit will be now in 2022 as the contract will be delayed a year. Same with Franchise Tags if players do not show up for 2021 like Leveon Bell then the steelers in return got 14 mil to roll over for 2019 when he didnt show for 2018.

[ravishingone]

2 minutes ago, ET80 said:

A few things, courtesy of Spotrac:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/deshaun-watson-21753/

- Watson's cap hit is slated at $15.4mm, with a dead cap of $67mm. In essence, sitting Watson would cost the Texans $15.4mm against the cap, trading him would levy a whopping $52mm dead cap hit (or roughly 30% of the cap). So it is considerably cheaper to let Watson sit 2021.

- If Watson were to sit in 2021 for all 16 games, his contract does not toll... So it would remain $15.4m/$67m every year, until Watson played the required 10 games in a season to qualify for a year of service.

- OK, let's say Watson fakes an injury for six weeks and then plays the last 10 games; Contract tolls and the cap hit starts off at $40mm, dead cap at $51mm - so roughly an $11mm delta. Much more manageable.

So, it actually behooves the Texans to call Watson on his bluff - they avoid the significant cap hit, and then they showcase Watson for 10 games to maintain his value, or rinse and repeat calling his bluff every year.

One thing for certain - the Texans aren't exactly altruistic in relation to their prisoners. Letting Watson spoil on the vine is better than wrecking their cap in their eyes.

Very well written, but "their prisoners" is a little over the top.  Watson signed the contract extension with Easterby already in the building.  He chose life changing money, which I have zero issue with.  

I get why he wants out and don t blame him, but prisoner, nah.