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Houston is gonna drop the ball on Watson


Blue

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8 minutes ago, Blue said:

Playing around on Spotrac and it appears Watson only incurs $21.5 million in dead cap this year if they trade him by June 1st--hardly an apocalyptic total. They could restructure Tunsil and save $10 million there alone.

Still a LOT more than the $15.4mm that Watson is due. Next season, it's $11mm without a 6/1 designation - so you're looking at a $6mm hit in 2022, $5mm hit in 2023 (vs $21.5/$30.5 2022/2023).

From pure economics - Texans save the most by punting on 2021 and doing nothing.

And - if you're really thinking 6/1 designation, you're still missing out on 2021 picks. As far as I know, the 6/1 designation and cap spread is only for cutting/releasing players and not trades. (Correct me if I'm wrong). You couldn't designate Watson as a 6/1 trade AND get those Miami picks. It's one or the other.

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3 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

Yep. And frankly, unless you are trying to extend Tunsil well past his current 2024, I don't see any need to restructure for the benefit of 2021 cap at the expense of future cap.

Houston should NOT worry about 2021 cap situation. It's a dead year. If you have to take hits, now is the time to do it, so you can start fresh in 2022

Both Johnson's are cuttable too IMo if you are trying save 2021 dollars. I'd cut Randall Cobb too, even at the expense of 2021 cap to save them later. They should do everything in their power to acquire long term assets while clearing up 2022 cap..

 

42 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Everything we've discussed as far as what to do and how to do it - it's one rational person (you) talking to another rational person (me). Rational people have a lot of strengths - one of which is predictability and the ability to reason with other people to influence to a rational decision.

The Texans are not ran by rational people

 

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9 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Still a LOT more than the $15.4mm that Watson is due. Next season, it's $11mm without a 6/1 designation - so you're looking at a $6mm hit in 2022, $5mm hit in 2023 (vs $21.5/$30.5 2022/2023).

From pure economics - Texans save the most by punting on 2021 and doing nothing.

And - if you're really thinking 6/1 designation, you're still missing out on 2021 picks. As far as I know, the 6/1 designation and cap spread is only for cutting/releasing players and not trades. (Correct me if I'm wrong). You couldn't designate Watson as a 6/1 trade AND get those Miami picks. It's one or the other.

It's only $6 million more--and they can easily create that money with moves they're likely going to make anyways.

You're wrong, it's for trades as well (you may be thinking of post-June 1st cuts). Check the Spotrac page: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/deshaun-watson-21753/

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Just now, ET80 said:

Interesting, thanks for this - now, my question is whether or not you could designate the trade as post 6/1 while trading the player pre 6/1?

The draft is last week of April, so if you executed a draft day trade, you'd be subjected to the pre 6/1 figure of $52mm dead cap (right?) which would absorb pretty much every dollar the Texans currently have (and cuts like Cobb/Mercilius are also negative value cuts). Waiting for the 6/1 designation wouldn't help, because the picks you're wanting will already be used (unless there's some gentleman's agreement that NYJ/Mia/Carolina picked based on the Texans big board, or something).

I'm just lost on the logistics on this one...

No, you're not looking at the Spotrac numbers. Click on the $67,140,000 number in the dead cap column, it should pop up with a chart below explaining how much they owe based on various roster decisions they make regarding Watson.

If they trade him pre-6/1, it's a $21 million cap hit. If they trade him after 6/1, it looks like they actually save $10 million in 2021 and then take a $16.2 million cap hit in 2022 (I'm not clear on the cap implications post-2021 here).

The $67 million figure, as far as I can tell, only comes into play if they release him before June 1st. If they release him after June 1st, it's closer to a $50 million cap hit. Doesn't matter either way, he's not getting cut.

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Just now, Blue said:

No, you're not looking at the Spotrac numbers. Click on the $67,140,000 number in the dead cap column, it should pop up with a chart below explaining how much they owe based on various roster decisions they make regarding Watson.

If they trade him pre-6/1, it's a $21 million cap hit. If they trade him after 6/1, it looks like they actually save $10 million in 2021 and then take a $16.2 million cap hit in 2022 (I'm not clear on the cap implications post-2021 here).

The $67 million figure, as far as I can tell, only comes into play if they release him before June 1st. If they release him after June 1st, it's closer to a $50 million cap hit. Doesn't matter either way, he's not getting cut.

Yeah, took me a sec to click on it. You're right, that would be the most optimal solution...

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Just now, ET80 said:

Yeah, took me a sec to click on it. You're right, that would be the most optimal solution...

It's totally possible Spotrac is wrong or I'm missing something, but if this is accurate, the financial implications lean even more into trading Watson now when you maximize his contract's value by limiting the immediate cap hit for the interested team(s) in a year when the cap is tighter than normal.

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Just now, Blue said:

It's totally possible Spotrac is wrong or I'm missing something, but if this is accurate, the financial implications lean even more into trading Watson now when you maximize his contract's value by limiting the immediate cap hit for the interested team(s) in a year when the cap is tighter than normal.

No, I fully agree - $5mm cap delta is manageable, quick cuts get that done.

Doesn't mean I think the Texans will do it, just means I agree that it's the only win/win solution to be had.

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14 minutes ago, Blue said:

It's totally possible Spotrac is wrong or I'm missing something, but if this is accurate, the financial implications lean even more into trading Watson now when you maximize his contract's value by limiting the immediate cap hit for the interested team(s) in a year when the cap is tighter than normal.

I get that you are seeing it as the financial implications of trading him the cap is no big deal especially if they pose it as a june 1st but you have to look at it from your owner's perspective of paying him 73.7 mil which he got at signing. That is now out of his pockets 6 months later that if he trades will never get it back. Where if you have him sit then you recoup that money. So if this is the case where McNair doesn't see that 73.7 mil 5 first rd picks may make sense for the fans or maybe even the front office but it does not make sense to the guy having to give that much money up for 1 season of play

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3 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

I get that you are seeing it as the financial implications of trading him the cap is no big deal especially if they pose it as a june 1st but you have to look at it from your owner's perspective of paying him 73.7 mil which he got at signing. That is now out of his pockets 6 months later that if he trades will never get it back. Where if you have him sit then you recoup that money. So if this is the case where McNair doesn't see that 73.7 mil 5 first rd picks may make sense for the fans or maybe even the front office but it does not make sense to the guy having to give that much money up for 1 season of play

He's not getting that money back anyways. I'm sure you're right that McNair doesn't see it that way, but with the way he lied to Watson's face about including him in the coach search and listening to his input, I really think trying to do anything but get the maximum trade value for Watson is a total waste of time.

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23 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

I get that you are seeing it as the financial implications of trading him the cap is no big deal especially if they pose it as a june 1st but you have to look at it from your owner's perspective of paying him 73.7 mil which he got at signing. That is now out of his pockets 6 months later that if he trades will never get it back. Where if you have him sit then you recoup that money. So if this is the case where McNair doesn't see that 73.7 mil 5 first rd picks may make sense for the fans or maybe even the front office but it does not make sense to the guy having to give that much money up for 1 season of play

sunk costs, tbh

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Just now, Blue said:

He's not getting that money back anyways. I'm sure you're right that McNair doesn't see it that way, but with the way he lied to Watson's face about including him in the coach search and listening to his input, I really think trying to do anything but get the maximum trade value for Watson is a total waste of time.

You can get that money back. $100k if he sits out of minicamp. $50k each day of training camp he misses (last year it started around July 28 through Sept 6, about 40 days) thats $2 mil for overall training camp. $620k for each preseason game he misses if they do have preseason this year. Around $700k per game he misses. on top of that you have performance based things such as $500k for not hitting the 85% of workouts in the offseason. While its not a huge amount it is still quite a bit of change the organization can get back from him. So lets say he sits out until week 6, as that is when he is likely having to report in order for the year to count, that is about 6-8 mil that he will have to pay back plus incentives he misses out on. Not to mention he is still on the Texans roster. 

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26 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

You can get that money back. $100k if he sits out of minicamp. $50k each day of training camp he misses (last year it started around July 28 through Sept 6, about 40 days) thats $2 mil for overall training camp. $620k for each preseason game he misses if they do have preseason this year. Around $700k per game he misses. on top of that you have performance based things such as $500k for not hitting the 85% of workouts in the offseason. While its not a huge amount it is still quite a bit of change the organization can get back from him. So lets say he sits out until week 6, as that is when he is likely having to report in order for the year to count, that is about 6-8 mil that he will have to pay back plus incentives he misses out on. Not to mention he is still on the Texans roster. 

I mean, if you really want to ensure you're forced to trade him, sure.

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3 hours ago, ThatJaxxenGuy said:

check out the comparison forum, FF doesn’t take kindly to anything short of outright worship of Watson’s fantasy points. I got shredded for not thinking Watson took his game to new heights in a season where he lost 12 games.

 

I think all of this hype stems from his college coach calling him michael jordan. Because the player we've seen in the NFL is not as good as everybody is acting like.

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Reasons not to trade for Watson:

All time low throwing velocity, less than 50MPH, becomes a more apparent issue in the playoffs.

Already taken a bunch of hits and has a big contract.

The track record of players holding out in dramatic fashion then returning to their prior form is iffy at best. You know this entire situation is just eating away at his mind and not helping him progress and develop in the mental side of the game.

I will say he's a great leader and guys gravitate to him which is his starpower trait, but this idea that teams should be lining up to give off 3 first round picks and more for him is ludicrous to me. That makes sense for the 49ers and probably no one else.

 

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