Houston is gonna drop the ball on Watson

[Blue]

Just now, ThatJaxxenGuy said:

Either way. Watson is currently for sale. You say all these teams would swap their QBs (at which the Texans would absolutely bite). Yet, none of these teams have offered their QBs up for Watson. Curious. 

I said those teams would trade their QBs straight up for Watson. And no, Houston absolutely would not because they actually know Watson is an elite quarterback, unlike y'all apparently.

[ThatJaxxenGuy]

1 hour ago, Blue said:

I said those teams would trade their QBs straight up for Watson. And no, Houston absolutely would not because they actually know Watson is an elite quarterback, unlike y'all apparently.

As the situation stands the Texans would be dreaming to think they could even keep a GM on the phone in discussions about swapping Watson for Herbert, Lamar, Kyler, or Josh Allen. Why would up and coming teams blow up their nucleus for a QB who thinks he should get to hire his own head coach? Especially teams like the Ravens with QBs who have achieved more than Deshaun Watson and are younger... I don't see it at all. 
 

Honestly the fact you think it's delusional to think the Ravens wouldn't trade Lamar straight up for Watson without thinking twice makes me think you don't understand how the NFL works and the fact that the people involved are humans with loyalties, relationships, etc. to the guys they hire and work with. This ain't Madden dude, Lamar is the Ravens franchise and they wouldn't swap their MVP QB who saved their head coach's job. 10/10 times the Ravens reject that offer.

Watson is a great QB but his trade value is being overrated in this thread. Teams who have promising young QBs  for the foreseeable future aren't about to move away from that for guys who make headaches with ownership, especially when it's a guy who just lost 12 games this past season and the team holding his rights is desperate. 

Edited February 24, 2021 by ThatJaxxenGuy

[Leoric]

On 2/22/2021 at 11:41 AM, Blue said:

Miami isn't the only team on his list. Multiple reports that he wants to go to the Jets too, I believe.

Nobody “wants” to go to the Jets

[Dr A W Niloc]

People often make the synecdochical error of comparing players with teams (e.g. Wins/Losses, playoffs, Super Bowls, etc.).  I am more comfortable with players contextualized by their own teams.

Quote

Start with this:  In 2020 Deshaun Watson was second in pass depth and second in completion percentage.  8th in Fantasy Points Per Game.  6th in QB rushing yards.  4th in pass yards but only 23rd in pass attempts.  This is behind one of the league's five worst O-Lines and with the NFL's second worst ground game.  His coach?  Fired.  Star WR?  Arizona.  WR2?  Suspended.  Tight End?  33rd in PPG.  The less said about owner and management the better.  Somehow Watson won four games with this and the second least talented defense.

As phenomenal as Patrick Mahomes and others are, no other QB could accomplish what Watson does in the circumstances he does it.  No other player could be traded straight up for the first pick in the 2021 draft (read:  for Trevor Lawrence).

[Ray Reed]

10 hours ago, iknowcool said:

I mean... ya'll do realize he's only 25 years old, right?

Of course there are some things he can do better.  But how many QBs across the history of the NFL, Mahomes and Marino aside, are damn near perfect QBs at his age?  Even Rodgers, for as good as he was in 2008 in his first year starting, was just so, so much better in 2011.  And that isn't just about the #s.  Go watch '08 Rodgers if you can find some and then go watch '11 Rodgers.  

There is just no strong reason to think that Watson is even closed to maxed out.  Like no reason at all.  He's gotten better every year.  He's a great athlete.  Great competitor.  Great accuracy.  Yeah some things like his pocket presence/awareness could be a lot better (probably his biggest flaw IMO; Texans OL isn't good but he has a tendency of making it look even worse).  But the dude is 25.  What reason could you possibly have to think that a dude playing this good this early at QB is just going to suddenly stop improving?  

It's like trying to act like Peyton Manning wasn't worth 3 first round picks prior to 2003 just because he wasn't a finished product and had flaws (ie turnovers).  Nobody is trading for Deshaun Watson just because of how he has looked so far.  They are trading for him because QBs that perform this well this early in their career typically continue to improve, especially around 27-30 (ala Russ).  

Watson is 100% worth 3 1st-round picks.  And then some.  Easily.  It is just way more likely that his best years are ahead of him than him being a finished product.

I don't disagree with this. Players - especially QBs - grow/get better throughout their careers.

I just find it incredibly odd to see how arbitrarily this "he's young, he's obviously going to continue to improve, he's not a finished product, etc." logic is applied on this forum.

This line of thinking wasn't afforded to Josh Allen after 2019.

This line of thinking wasn't afforded to Baker Mayfield after 2019.

This line of thinking wasn't afforded to Lamar Jackson after 2018.

Hell, it's not being afforded to Sam Darnold this year.

Just bizarre to me.

 

 

Edited February 24, 2021 by Ray Reed

[Ray Reed]

8 hours ago, Blue said:

I am realistic, the only teams that wouldn't make a straight-up trade are the Chiefs, Seahawks, maybe the Bills and Packers.

Geez, y'all thinking that Baltimore wouldn't trade Lamar Jackson for Deshaun Watson straight up in a heartbeat are utterly delusional.

Deshaun Watson has thrown the ball 272 times more than Lamar Jackson these past 2 seasons and has thrown for less TDs.

In that span he has more INTs, a lower QB Rating, and gets blown out of the water when you add in rushing production.

That's throwing to a cast of: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb

Lamar's cast in that span has been: Mark Andrews, Hollywood Brown, Willie Snead, Dez Bryant, Seth Roberts

Not even going to get into W/L record and head-to-head performances because those are team stats more than anything, but, no - we aren't delusional. Far from it. I implore you...we good out here. lol.

[iknowcool]

1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

I don't disagree with this. Players - especially QBs - grow/get better throughout their careers.

I just find it incredibly odd to see how arbitrarily this "he's young, he's obviously going to continue to improve, he's not a finished product, etc." logic is applied on this forum.

This line of thinking wasn't afforded to Josh Allen after 2019.

This line of thinking wasn't afforded to Baker Mayfield after 2019.

This line of thinking wasn't afforded to Lamar Jackson after 2018.

Hell, it's not being afforded to Sam Darnold this year.

Just bizarre to me.

It is bizarre to you that QBs who up to that point never looked anywhere near as good as Watson weren’t given the same expectations?

[Blue]

7 hours ago, Leoric said:

Nobody “wants” to go to the Jets

I mean, I wouldn't, but clearly there are players who do (and a lot of players will go just about anywhere if the pay is good).

6 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

People often make the synecdochical error of comparing players with teams (e.g. Wins/Losses, playoffs, Super Bowls, etc.).  I am more comfortable with players contextualized by their own teams.

As phenomenal as Patrick Mahomes and others are, no other QB could accomplish what Watson does in the circumstances he does it.  No other player could be traded straight up for the first pick in the 2021 draft (read:  for Trevor Lawrence).

I pointed out in the OP of this thread why no team is going to trade the 1st overall pick for a veteran QB on a market-level contract. No player is getting traded straight up for the first pick in any draft with a clear-cut QB1.

59 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

Deshaun Watson has thrown the ball 272 times more than Lamar Jackson these past 2 seasons and has thrown for less TDs.

In that span he has more INTs, a lower QB Rating, and gets blown out of the water when you add in rushing production.

That's throwing to a cast of: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb

Lamar's cast in that span has been: Mark Andrews, Hollywood Brown, Willie Snead, Dez Bryant, Seth Roberts

Not even going to get into W/L record and head-to-head performances because those are team stats more than anything, but, no - we aren't delusional. Far from it. I implore you...we good out here. lol.

STATS

Thinking Lamar Jackson is a better player than Deshaun Watson is embarrassing. Watch the games.

[Ray Reed]

4 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

It is bizarre to you that QBs who up to that point never looked anywhere near as good as Watson weren’t given the same expectations?

In the context of improvement?

Um, yeah? lol

Edited February 24, 2021 by Ray Reed

[Ray Reed]

12 minutes ago, Blue said:

I mean, I wouldn't, but clearly there are players who do (and a lot of players will go just about anywhere if the pay is good).

I pointed out in the OP of this thread why no team is going to trade the 1st overall pick for a veteran QB on a market-level contract. No player is getting traded straight up for the first pick in any draft with a clear-cut QB1.

STATS

Thinking Lamar Jackson is a better player than Deshaun Watson is embarrassing. Watch the games.

The only argument Deshaun Watson has over Lamar is stats - because it certainly isn't winning, and it certainly isn't guiding his team/offense to more success - and save bulk passing yards, those don't even fall in his favor.

I do watch the games. I see Lamar win a lot of those games when I watch the games. I see Lamar win a unanimous MVP when I watch the games. I see Lamar leading an offense that has scored more points than any team in the NFL the past 2 seasons with Dez Bryant and Seth Roberts getting meaningful snaps when I watch the games.

I see Deshaun Watson lose a lot when I watch the games. I see Deshaun putting up 300+ yards and 3 TDs after his team gets down by 20 in the 4th quarter when I watch the games.

Edited February 24, 2021 by Ray Reed

[iknowcool]

17 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

In the context of improvement?

Um, yeah? lol

That literally doesn’t make any sense.

I am not expecting Watson to improve just because he is young. I am expecting him to improve because he’s been great every year of his career so far.

My point wasn’t that all young QBs get better... because they don’t. It was that Watson has shown so much that based on other QBs who’ve been this good this early, it is unlikely he’s even had his best year yet. 

You are absolutely reaching by trying to compare Darnold/Mayfield or pre-2020 Allen. Expectations for them to improve was way lower because they never looked great & certainly not as good as Watson. 

Edited February 24, 2021 by iknowcool

[Blue]

13 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

The only argument Deshaun Watson has over Lamar is stats

If you ignore your eyes, sure

[Ray Reed]

11 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

That literally doesn’t make any sense.

I am not expecting Watson to improve just because he is young. I am expecting him to improve because he’s been great every year of his career so far.

My point wasn’t that all young QBs get better... because they don’t. It was that Watson has shown so much that based on other QBs who’ve been this good this early, it is unlikely he’s even had his best year yet. 

You are absolutely reaching by trying to compare Darnold/Mayfield or pre-2020 Allen. Expectations for them to improve was way lower because they never looked great. 

Na, you're getting it twisted. And it literally makes perfect sense lol.

I'm not comparing the players. I'm saying it's bizarre that talented, young, first-round QBs entering their 2nd and 3rd seasons weren't afforded a "you know what, they're young, they can probably improve" relative to where they were and how they played, but a guy whose already pretty unanimously seen as a top-5 guy, entering year 5, is guaranteed to get even better than top-5 in the league.

If you can't see the logic in that take idk what to tell you the conversation should probably just end here...lol. Typically most football people expect young talented players to improve year to year. Just odd to me some of them are afforded that and others aren't.

Edited February 24, 2021 by Ray Reed

[The Helicopter]

This thread reminds me of what went down with Elway, Eli, & Manning...could add Tarkenton...

[MWil23]

1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

Deshaun Watson has thrown the ball 272 times more than Lamar Jackson these past 2 seasons and has thrown for less TDs.

This is a very valid point

1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

In that span he has more INTs, a lower QB Rating,

These two are tied into one another directly. Also, the law of consequences of more passing attempts=more interceptions. Similarly, scheme has 100% to do with a lot of this. Baltimore has a dominant OL and some quality running backs, and the obvious portion of Roman utilizing that via scheme. Watson has had very little help running the football, with the Texans ranking 31st in 2020. Given the other fact about how much better Baltimore's defense is in comparison to  

1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

and gets blown out of the water when you add in rushing production.

Clearly Lamar is a huge proponent of the success of running the football/is as good as I've ever seen at his position doing this. However, Watson has suffered 2 torn ACL's in his history, so clearly the Texans have tried to limit the hits/rushing attempts for him in this regard, and they're smart to do so. In terms of throwing from the pocket, there's really no comparison, because Watson is WAY better than Lamar in this area. While Watson wouldn't be the runner that Lamar is, when healthy, he's very dangerous and a great runner.

1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

That's throwing to a cast of: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb

Lamar's cast in that span has been: Mark Andrews, Hollywood Brown, Willie Snead, Dez Bryant, Seth Roberts

Also very valid points.

1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

Not even going to get into W/L record and head-to-head performances because those are team stats more than anything, but, no - we aren't delusional. Far from it. I implore you...we good out here. lol.

However, you can't cherry pick the "weapons" argument on throwing to guys and omit the other "weapons" that Lamar has at his disposal, on defense (hence a good part of the W/L record, as the Texans D is substantially worse than Baltimore), where they were drafted (Lamar was drafted onto an already playoff caliber team, whereas the Texans were not that), how Baltimore has an elite OL/running game and Watson was barely able to be kept upright pre-trades and have virtually no running game, and how scheme/coaching has factored in. 

Baltimore's organization is one of the gold standards of stability, smarts, and being well run. The Texans are a meme.