Which team that missed the playoffs has the best chance of being this years Bucs?

[Danger]

I'll let you know after free agency and the draft.

[MikeT14]

On 2/27/2021 at 8:33 PM, ET80 said:

If Watson heads there, I'd back this one. Same for San Francisco.

Yeah it kinda hinges on this. Otherwise, I am not sure any of the teams are "good enough" 

[HoboRocket]

On 2/27/2021 at 8:13 PM, HoboRocket said:

I'm going to go the homer route and pick the Cardinals. The Cardinals had some quality wins against tough opponents. A lot of the pieces were there, but they couldn't put it together on a week-to-week basis.

Their offense and defense were both borderline top-10 in points, and they were the 6th-ranked offense in yardage. They were a middle-of-the-pack passing game and a dangerous team on the ground. Kenyan Drake wasn't very impressive, but they still racked up yards with Kyler putting up RB numbers to supplement Drake, and Chase Edmonds did well in limited opportunities once again, racking up nearly as many yards from scrimmage as Drake. Drake is expected to exit via free agency, but honestly, it should be fairly easy to upgrade him. He was incredible in 2019 for us, but was just so lackluster this past year. There are multiple RBs that should be able to replace or upgrade his production in free agency, and the draft is always an excellent option for RBs. There are a few guys this year that would be solid choices.

Their passing game weapons left a lot to be desired. DeAndre Hopkins was unstoppable for most of the season, but Christian Kirk was extremely frustrating. Dan Arnold failed to make the necessary steps and Larry Fitzgerald has lost a step, and at 38 years old, with a limited role on offense, he should not have finished second on the team in receptions. Chase Edmonds, the back-up RB, was third. Aside from those three players, it was a frustrating bunch of players catching the football. On the bright side, it's a really young group overall. There's still hope that guys like Dan Arnold or Christian Kirk can just take the next step in a contract year, or even if someone else from their multitude of young receivers can step up, (Andy Isabella, Keesean Johnson, Trent Sherfield, Maxx Williams, or Darrell Daniels are all still yet to enter their prime). Overall, every receiver on the team, aside from Fitzgerald and Hopkins, is still under 25. There should be some level of natural progression.

Their defense was playoff-caliber. Part of it was just that it was hard to have consistency. A slew of injuries to the defense occurred about halfway throughout the season, and all of a sudden they didn't have the personnel to run some of those exotic looks that were working so well at times and disrupting offenses. Honestly, I thought Vance Joseph did an incredible job with the players he had. They had the 3rd-best red zone defense and held teams to a low 39% conversion rate. Hopefully the defense will get healthier this year. Patty P has lost a few steps, and he might leave. He's a really meaningful guy for this locker room, but he's also had a little bit of drama in recent years and was unhappy with playing here, so that combined with poor play means that I'm okay with him leaving. Chandler Jones is a monster and a fantastic leader, and I really hope he stays. I really like our edge rush, but we just haven't had everyone healthy. Retaining Haason Reddick is an absolute must. We still haven't been able to see much of a healthy Zach Allen, someone who the front office has been bullish on, and then we didn't really see Jordan Phillips, either. Both rookie DTs were awful, but it's not out of the question that they'll progress, as this year was a crapshoot for a lot of rookies. 

Overall, I really like our edge rush, LBs, and safety group. The corners were okay but could use an upgrade, and while the interior of the DL didn't perform very well and was injured, Vance Joseph did a masterful job as masking that with different personnel packages and interior blitzes. I honestly wouldn't really invest in an upgrade on the DL unless it was a sure thing, considering that we've drafted three DTs on day 2 over the past couple years, and we also have just had injury issues there. Overall, like I said, I really believe in this defense and in Vance. We're only a piece or two away, IMO. 3rd-best red zone D, 39% 3rd down rate.

Part of the issue is that we also had a 39% 3rd down rate on offense. We didn't really have any answers on third and long. Our best bets were when the defense made a mistake and let Nuk wreck them, or when Kyler was able to scramble for 12+ yards. Kirk was Mr. Dropsy, Dan Arnold flashed some seam ability but isn't there yet, and Fitz can't create separation beyond 10 yards anymore and he wasn't much of a separation guy in the first place. We really need some of these young guys to step up.

As far as our offensive line goes, I like it, honestly. DJ Humphries is a really good left tackle and has been nasty in the run game for a while. Justin Pugh is a very good guard. Justin Murray has played well, and hopefully he'll be the RG next year, while I thought Josh Jones was a round-1 tackle and like the idea of him starting moving forward. We're in desperate need of a competent center, though. 

Kyler was a good QB. He wasn't elite, but he was good. He needs to continue to work on his processing, but it has gotten better. There were quite a few times where he held onto the ball for too long, and there were also times where he bailed on plays with guys open downfield, settling for check-downs to Edmunds or Fitz. It's hard when your weapons fail to step up, but he still can get better about that. He also gets happy feet sometimes and that leads to sloppy throws. There were times when he was avoiding a rush that wasn't there and threw off his back foot. Overall, though, he's an accurate QB with fantastic athleticism and escapability and a strong arm. 

Honestly, I feel like we're only a couple pieces away from being a true contender. We really need a center, and I feel like even an okay center would be a massive improvement to middle of the OL. Lamont Galliard was an upgrade over Mason Cole when he got some chances this season, and this was only his second season in the league, but I'm not sure if he's the answer. A good complementary receiver would go to great lengths to improve the offense, and with so many young guys who have flashed but are just inconsistent, it's not out of the question that one of them could step up, find some consistency, and be that piece. If not, there are some options out there via the draft or free agency. Again, Hopkins is an elite alpha receiver. We just need a second guy on the team who can be counted on to reach at least 650 yards, something that didn't happen this past year. Finally, we could use an improvement at corner. Dre Kirkpatrick was good, Byron Murphy continues to develop. Maybe Murphy steps up and becomes the guy. Probably not, considering his frame and how badly he's been beaten at times, but he's also gone toe to toe with some of the league's better receivers and held them in check. Ideally, though, we'd be getting another corner.

Honestly, at all of the positions of weakness, there are potential solutions in our young guys. If we can just hit on one or two guys this off-season and the team stays mostly intact, I think we could surprise people. 

There's a natural line of progression here for both Kyler and Kliff as they enter year 3 in the NFL. They've both gotten better. The team as whole is still very young and has gotten better. We just need that trend to continue with a little bit of help, but yeah, I seriously think we could make waves next season. Do I think we'll win the Super Bowl? Nope. Would I be SURPRISED if we made a deep playoff run? Nope.

Got our IDL upgrade in JJ Watt. The team also seriously missed Jordan Phillips' presence when he went down, and he'll be back. Dude was eating double teams on the inside, but now teams will be forced to deal with Chandler Jones, Haason Reddick, JJ Watt, Jordan Phillips, Dennis Gardeck, and Devon Kennard. That's a group, man. 

But yeah, I expect the IDL to be significantly better just from a combo of Watt's addition, Phillips being healthy, and ideally Leki Fotu and Rashard Lawrence will improve in their sophomore seasons. 

Now, the wishlist would be (in this order):

1. Receiving weapon (WR or TE - ideally someone who can be counted on to at least get to 700 yards from scrimmage, as even that much would be an upgrade over anyone not-named DeAndre Hopkins); whether that's from player progression and development, a FA addition, or the draft, I don't care as long as this team has a viable second option in the passing game.

2. Outside cornerback. Ideally, it would be someone who could handle deep speed. Both Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick are getting up there in age and don't have the deep speed anymore. Peterson is expected to depart, anyways. Byron Murphy has good quickness and decent speed, but he isn't long enough and doesn't have the jets to go stride for stride with a legit deep threat on the outside. 

3. Running back. Kenyan Drake was a disappointment and isn't really worth keeping at his expected price tag. He struggled a lot running between the tackles and Chase Edmonds looked much more dynamic. Edmonds has good traits and has been efficient, but I'm not sure that he's a bell-cow. Eno Benjamin is a cheap guy on a rookie deal, and he has some believers, but even if Edmonds and Eno end up getting increased playing time, I'd like a contingency plan if they falter.

Currently, I'd rate the position groups for 2021 (expecting to franchise or re-sign Reddick):

QB: A

OL: B+

WR: B-

RB: B

TE: C

DL: B-

EDGE: A+

CB: B-

S: A

Some key additions could really away this, but overall the Cards have a solid roster. Literally just upgrading the weapons and finding a corner would be massive.

[VigilantZombie]

For me it would be SF. The biggest factor in their poor season was injury so it's not like I'm going out of much of a limb here.

[Bolts223]

Miami.

They're a SB contender if they get Watson, which they have the draft capital to do.

Edited March 2, 2021 by Bolts223

[jrry32]

On 2/27/2021 at 11:29 PM, Forge said:

I think they are likely to lose a ton of players. I really need to see free agency. Sherm is gone. Probably Trent williams. Probably k'waun. Probably Tartt. Hyder is a free agent. Need a center. 

I just have to see how they solve this mess as there are way too many moving parts. This seems like a transition year

You think Trent Williams is gone?

On 2/27/2021 at 8:13 PM, HoboRocket said:

There's a natural line of progression here for both Kyler and Kliff as they enter year 3 in the NFL. They've both gotten better. The team as whole is still very young and has gotten better. We just need that trend to continue with a little bit of help, but yeah, I seriously think we could make waves next season. Do I think we'll win the Super Bowl? Nope. Would I be SURPRISED if we made a deep playoff run? Nope.

Y'all still haven't solved your biggest problem. Kliff Kingsbury is a mediocre HC.

[Forge]

17 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

You think Trent Williams is gone?

Yes. Like 70/30. He's already turned down two offers, I think. He wants to hit market. We could budget him in, so we either hit our limit for some reason, or he just wants to hit market

My gut says we draft slater to replace him if he's there. 

[RamblinMan99]

Miami should have been in the playoffs this year and got snubbed because of the dumb divisional seeding, so they obviously have a lot of pieces already in place.  

The Chargers maybe.  Herbert's most likely their franchise QB but I don't think they have the team built around him to go anywhere for another 3-5 years.  

Then there's Jacksonville.  They get Trevor Lawrence and he might be the next GOAT right out of the gate.  You don't know for sure, but you can't rule it out either.  Not saying they'll be in the Super Bowl with him as a rookie by any means, but he could be in there sooner than we think.  

[kramxel]

Why is everyone saying Pats? 

They have no offense. 

Look at teams that were in the playoff run or teams with above average rosters, like Cowboys (defense may have some concerns), Cards (a couple of pieces away), 49ers (without half the roster on IR)... 

 

[Awsi Dooger]

On 3/1/2021 at 10:56 AM, MWil23 said:

Ah, got it. It's the same reason that I have CLE having another good 2021...they have that 3rd place schedule after finishing behind Pitt and Baltimore...and I could actually see Miami regress significantly unless Tua plays lights out or they acquire Watson.

I know defensively they're good, but they need to get something going on offense or I have them at .500 or below.

You're one of the few who understands situational influence. Miami is a huge favorite to bounce, after going from 6 wins to 10 wins. The sharp guys who wager big on season win over/unders always look for regression in scenarios like that, while the public expects fanciful continuation. 

Watson might be enough to prevent a reversal but I would expect a disappointing season in terms of expectation, whether Miami gets Watson or not.

The 2019 Buccaneers scored a ton of points. I'd have to use the same criteria, although I haven't looked at the numbers. These days you really can't fake anything without consistent point production. I gave that stat many times that Brady is virtually immune from the low or mid scoring defeat because he finds a way to put up 27 or thereabouts.

[Dr A W Niloc]

6 hours ago, kramxel said:

Why is everyone saying Pats? 

They have no offense.

They had  no offense [beyond their superlative O-Line and fine RBs]. 

In 2021 they'll find and/or develop a QB and they'll actually be able to practice together.  Otherwise, one of the top three NFC teams, San Francisco, Rams, or Tampa Bay, will win Super Bowl LVI.

[kramxel]

5 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

They had  no offense [beyond their superlative O-Line and fine RBs]. 

In 2021 they'll find and/or develop a QB and they'll actually be able to practice together.  Otherwise, one of the top three NFC teams, San Francisco, Rams, or Tampa Bay, will win Super Bowl LVI.

So everyone is predicting them to be the next Bucs, because they may figure it out?

Seems awfully speculative. They're not 2 or 3 pieces away, they're a QB and an entire WR group away, plus all the rest.

If you're giving them that much wiggle room, you need to include half the teams in the NFL.

Edited March 4, 2021 by kramxel

[Dr A W Niloc]

4 hours ago, kramxel said:

Quote

So everyone is predicting them to be the next Bucs, because they may figure it out?

      With arguably the best Head Coach and General Manager in football, yes.  Last year the Patriots were devastated by COVID-19 from the get-go (8 opt outs!), practiced less than once a week (nullifying the immense advantage in coaching), had no QB (pace Cam Newton), and still finished with 7 wins.  With the league's toughest year-start 2020 schedule (which softens to 19th going into 2021).

Quote

Seems awfully speculative. They're not 2 or 3 pieces away, they're a QB and an entire WR group away, plus all the rest.

      We bear in mind that they are third in cap space, with enough to acquire as many as five or six double digit free agents.  Ten franchises can't afford any.  It is clear that New England can address in free agency whatever deficiencies they see at WR.  QB is another matter entirely.  In this sense, the Pats are one piece away.  Better yet, free agents such as TE Kyle Rudolph are jonesing to join the team.  To cap it off, the Patriots are drafting 15th, the best position they've seen in a generation.

Quote

If you're giving them that much wiggle room, you need to include half the teams in the NFL.

      Only if resources were distributed evenly.  This is the NFL's Quarterback University.  It has produced the starting QBs on two of the NFC's top three teams mentioned.  Belichick has a full year, including training camp and preseason, to produce a QB.  To suggest he won't succeed would seem pessimistic, if not counterintuitive.

P.S.:  None of this should suggest that I am or have ever been a New England fan.

 

[Zalixar]

On 3/1/2021 at 1:08 PM, HoboRocket said:

Got our IDL upgrade in JJ Watt. The team also seriously missed Jordan Phillips' presence when he went down, and he'll be back. Dude was eating double teams on the inside, but now teams will be forced to deal with Chandler Jones, Haason Reddick, JJ Watt, Jordan Phillips, Dennis Gardeck, and Devon Kennard. That's a group, man. 

But yeah, I expect the IDL to be significantly better just from a combo of Watt's addition, Phillips being healthy, and ideally Leki Fotu and Rashard Lawrence will improve in their sophomore seasons. 

Now, the wishlist would be (in this order):

1. Receiving weapon (WR or TE - ideally someone who can be counted on to at least get to 700 yards from scrimmage, as even that much would be an upgrade over anyone not-named DeAndre Hopkins); whether that's from player progression and development, a FA addition, or the draft, I don't care as long as this team has a viable second option in the passing game.

2. Outside cornerback. Ideally, it would be someone who could handle deep speed. Both Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick are getting up there in age and don't have the deep speed anymore. Peterson is expected to depart, anyways. Byron Murphy has good quickness and decent speed, but he isn't long enough and doesn't have the jets to go stride for stride with a legit deep threat on the outside. 

3. Running back. Kenyan Drake was a disappointment and isn't really worth keeping at his expected price tag. He struggled a lot running between the tackles and Chase Edmonds looked much more dynamic. Edmonds has good traits and has been efficient, but I'm not sure that he's a bell-cow. Eno Benjamin is a cheap guy on a rookie deal, and he has some believers, but even if Edmonds and Eno end up getting increased playing time, I'd like a contingency plan if they falter.

Currently, I'd rate the position groups for 2021 (expecting to franchise or re-sign Reddick):

QB: A

OL: B+

WR: B-

RB: B

TE: C

DL: B-

EDGE: A+

CB: B-

S: A

Some key additions could really away this, but overall the Cards have a solid roster. Literally just upgrading the weapons and finding a corner would be massive.

Haven't you heard?  We are a terrible team and probably picking top 5.

[CP3MVP]

The only Covid opt out worth a damn for the pats was Hightower. Cannon and Chung’s replacements performed better than they did the previous season.  I’m sick and tired of people using that as an excuse why the team sucked this year lol.

 

i like the cardinals talent, the problem is KK. I don’t think he’s a good coach, maybe he can develop into one but we will see. The patriots loss was inexcusable. 

Edited March 4, 2021 by CP3MVP