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21 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I'll explain why the immunity from the vaccine is better.

Antibodies are basically Y-shaped claw looking things that are built to latch on to very specific things, like viruses. So if you get COVID, your immune system will take a look at it and design an antibody against it - but the problem is we don't know exactly where the antibody will be programed to latch on to the virus. It could be the most important part of COVID (called the spike protein), that leads to infection and is necessary for COVID to work, or it could be on a different part of COVID that isn't nearly as important.

The vaccine only shows the immune system that super important spike protein part, so we've forced the immune system to develop the antibodies to grab onto the most important part. You may get that with immunity though COVID, but there's no guarantee. So when we say the immunity from the vaccine is "better", what we mean is we've guaranteed that your immune system will be as resistant to COVID changing as we can get it.

Fantastic post and thanks for writing it.

One tidbit of additional info regarding the "design" comment above...its more of a "selecting the right one from the catalog"  vs designing one from scratch. The Clonal Selection Theory was a seminal paper in the industry.
It describes how we actually have this amazing library of antibody-producing cells available to us from a young age and the immune system "selects" the right ones for that virus/bacteria and then turns on the factory to make billions of them.

https://oxsci.org/clonal-selection-theory-an-immunological-breakthrough/

"Put very simply, clonal selection is when one specific cell is selected and cloned to fight infection. B cells in the bone marrow divide to create new cells, but what’s special here is that each daughter cell is different from its parent as well as from all its siblings. The result is an incredibly diverse population of B cells with different receptors that can connect with a unique antigen. The receptor is very specific and very powerful against the antigen it’s designed for, but often useless against any other antigen."

That selection and production process takes about 3 weeks and that's why vaccines are your friend- they cut down the response time to days instead of weeks AND they select the very best ones.

Our immune systems will always select very good antibodies, but the best ones take longer to emerge. And that's what the vaccine developers did - they tested and tested till they found the strongest, most potent, best binding COVID ***- kickers they could find. Then they made the vaccines based on that info

Making a modern vaccine is sort of like doing an NFL re-draft 3 years later - you already know the winners and can choose HOF players ( antibodies) with every pick.

So that's why a vaccine-induced immunity is most likley to be better than a COVID disease-induced immunity.

Get yourself a HOF immunity today

 

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3 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

Fantastic post and thanks for writing it.

One tidbit of additional info regarding the "design" comment above...its more of a "selecting the right one from the catalog"  vs designing one from scratch. The Clonal Selection Theory was a seminal paper in the industry.
It describes how we actually have this amazing library of antibody-producing cells available to us from a young age and the immune system "selects" the right ones for that virus/bacteria and then turns on the factory to make billions of them.

https://oxsci.org/clonal-selection-theory-an-immunological-breakthrough/

"Put very simply, clonal selection is when one specific cell is selected and cloned to fight infection. B cells in the bone marrow divide to create new cells, but what’s special here is that each daughter cell is different from its parent as well as from all its siblings. The result is an incredibly diverse population of B cells with different receptors that can connect with a unique antigen. The receptor is very specific and very powerful against the antigen it’s designed for, but often useless against any other antigen."

That selection and production process takes about 3 weeks and that's why vaccines are your friend- they cut down the response time to days instead of weeks AND they select the very best ones.

Our immune systems will always select very good antibodies, but the best ones take longer to emerge. And that's what the vaccine developers did - they tested and tested till they found the strongest, most potent, best binding COVID ***- kickers they could find. Then they made the vaccines based on that info

Making a modern vaccine is sort of like doing an NFL re-draft 3 years later - you already know the winners and can choose HOF players ( antibodies) with every pick.

So that's why a vaccine-induced immunity is most likley to be better than a COVID disease-induced immunity.

Get yourself a HOF immunity today

 

@Kirill - really good reading here. If you're interested in learning more, @Shanedorf and @ramssuperbowl99 are your best sources of information you'll find on this site.

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17 minutes ago, Xenos said:

Well then not enough people got vaccinated if it happens again.

Vaccinated or not, there will still be a significant rise in cases. (about 2/3 vaccinated among adults, 50% overall roughly). Not as high of a spike as last year, but there are a significant number of breakthrough cases. The vaccination is effective at making the disease effectively harmless, but it doesn't do nearly as well at preventing it from existing within us. I'm sure even now there are a fairly large number of vaccinated people who have the disease and don't even know it because the vaccine is doing it's job and preventing the disease from being effective. 

Never said there'd be a comparable spike in deaths. The large large large majority of hospitalizations and deaths will be amongst the unvaccinated, but there will be a notable number of vaccinated carriers, both known and unknown asymptomatics.

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3 minutes ago, Danger said:

Vaccinated or not, there will still be a significant rise in cases. Not as high as last year, but there are a significant number of breakthrough cases. The vaccination is effective at making the disease effectively harmless, but it doesn't do nearly as well at preventing it from existing within us. I'm sure even now there are a fairly large number of vaccinated people who have the disease and don't even know it because the vaccine is doing it's job and preventing the disease from being effective. 

Never said there'd be a comparable spike in deaths.

With regard to the bolded part, what are you talking about?

Edit: also with regards to the breakthrough cases, what are the percentages of it happening? 

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13 minutes ago, Xenos said:

With regard to the bolded part, what are you talking about?

The number of breakthrough cases will increase due to a variety of factors. First this vaccine isn't a sterilizing vaccine like the ones we're traditionally used to for thinks like mumps, polio, or small pox. It inhibits the disease from damaging us and reproducing as much as it otherwise would. The CDC changed the definition of "Vaccination" very slightly to reflect this and you can see it via the waybackmachine. 

Before: Vaccination: The act of introducing a vaccine into the body to produce immunity to a specific disease.
After: Vaccination: The act of introducing a vaccine into the body to produce protection from a specific disease.

It's still an effective vaccine, but it still doesn't work as we have traditionally come to expect of vaccines. Additionally you have to consider this is likely the reason many places like some universities for example are still requiring the wearing of masks even for vaccinated individuals. You can see in the recent meeting between the US President and UK Prime Minister (Avoid politics here because that's not the point) that they were still both wearing masks when sitting fairly close to one another.

The other cause for concern is waning vaccine efficacy. This I grant you is still relatively up in the air. I've seen a wide variety of estimates that say boosters will be needed as soon as 5 months, others saying only people at risk need them. As well as studies from Israel that suggest it does fall off over time. I think as time goes on, we will see cases rise again even amongst those that are vaccinated. My questions are, how soon, and how much? Both of these things remain to be seen. From everything I've heard over the past 6 months, my expectations (I would prefer to be incorrect mind you) is that come about December/January things will pick up again. What I heard initially from the get go is that the boosters would be recommended at 8-10 months after getting the 2nd shot. If most got it between April-June, we'd be looking at early 2022 when things start to rear their head.

So long as the vaccine remains effective. Your risk from COVID is still effectively null, but you're still able to transmit it if you're a breakthrough case.

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Just now, Deadpulse said:

about 1 in 13,402 chances of getting it and 1 in 86,500 of dying from it. 

based on reported numbers from end of August

I think it'll rise, also have to consider that many people who are vaccinated won't even know they have a breakthrough case because it's been blunted so much they don't feel any effects from it. Which is good.

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2 minutes ago, Danger said:
4 minutes ago, Deadpulse said:

about 1 in 13,402 chances of getting it and 1 in 86,500 of dying from it. 

based on reported numbers from end of August

I think it'll rise, also have to consider that many people who are vaccinated won't even know they have a breakthrough case because it's been blunted so much they don't feel any effects from it. Which is good.

unvaccinated its 1 in 8 of getting it and 1 in 63 of dying from it. 

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