Covid-19 News/Discussion

[mission27]

3 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

At 60k cases/day, the odds of getting COVID each day are 1 in 5.5k. Death rate would be somewhere between 1 in 100 to 1 in 500 of positive cases. Let's call it 1 in 250. So the odds of getting a fatal COVID infection today are ~1 in 1.4 million. (Of course, this assumes vaccine supply limits are the issue, which won't be the case in a few weeks).

The math says to me a death rate of ~1 in 7 million is relevant if only pausing for a few days, and then resuming dosing with a more bolstered blood clot protocol. I don't think it justifies a larger response than that.

 

The twitter mania side effect isn't great either.

I think you have it slightly backwards.  If the risk is 1 in 1.4 million from COVID and 1 in 7 million from the shot, that would theoretically justify pausing the vaccine for about 1/5th of a day or ~5 hours, all deaths being equal and assuming no impact on the number of folks who eventually get vaccinated.  

Btw the 1 in 1.4 million would imply 200-250 COVID deaths a day, we are about 3x that on a trailing 7 day basis, so I'd argue your chances may be closer to 1 in 500k from COVID vs 1 in 7 million from the shot, in which case we'd only be willing to pause the vaccine for about an hour or two.  Clearly not practical or worthwhile. 

The more important point though is what I underlined above.  Lets say this media circus scares an incremental 1% of Americans into forgoing the vaccine.  That's 3 million people.  If 10% of those 3 million people get symptomatic COVID over the next year because they forgo the vaccine, that's probably 500-1000+ deaths.  Not to mention the knock-on effects in our quest to reopen and get to herd immunity, stop variants, etc. 

I really don't see the cost benefit here.

[mission27]

16 minutes ago, Xenos said:

People who were leaning towards the antivax camp were going to do it regardless if there were no pause. I disagree that it will turn the hesitant away as much you may believe.

In terms of media running this in an irresponsible way, I don’t know what media you’re watching. Is this the same ones that helped you create the MOL?

I've already had multiple on the fence friends text me saying stuff like "see, the vaccine is deadly."  Thankfully a couple of them already got the shot before this came out.  But I do think it will have an impact, just like pausing the AZ shot appears to have had an impact on vaccine attitudes in Europe. 

The media (cable news, twitter, the internet) is not good at covering nuance.  The message people are already getting is J&J might cause blood clots and the FDA is scared enough to pause the vaccine.  That is going to have an impact.

[Xenos]

7 minutes ago, mission27 said:

I've already had multiple on the fence friends text me saying stuff like "see, the vaccine is deadly."  Thankfully a couple of them already got the shot before this came out.  But I do think it will have an impact, just like pausing the AZ shot appears to have had an impact on vaccine attitudes in Europe. 

The media (cable news, twitter, the internet) is not good at covering nuance.  The message people are already getting is J&J might cause blood clots and the FDA is scared enough to pause the vaccine.  That is going to have an impact.

Did you tell your friends that taking birth control has a better chance of giving them a blood clot than the vaccine?

[WizeGuy]

31 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

At 60k cases/day, the odds of getting COVID each day are 1 in 5.5k. Death rate would be somewhere between 1 in 100 to 1 in 500 of positive cases. Let's call it 1 in 250. So the odds of getting a fatal COVID infection today are ~1 in 1.4 million. (Of course, this assumes vaccine supply limits are the issue, which won't be the case in a few weeks).

The math says to me a death rate of ~1 in 7 million is relevant if only pausing for a few days, and then resuming dosing with a more bolstered blood clot protocol. I don't think it justifies a larger response than that.

 

The twitter mania side effect isn't great either.

It's apparently only going to be for a few days, and one the reasons they did it was to be transparent with the public. We'll see how it works out. I think they gave anti vaxxers more ammo, but maybe some on the fence will appreciate the openess. 

 

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-vaccine-pause-johnson-20210413-qq3a2goznjfnpkyepslg6rhmyq-story.html

Edited April 13, 2021 by WizeGuy

[ramssuperbowl99]

12 minutes ago, mission27 said:

The more important point though is what I underlined above.  Lets say this media circus scares an incremental 1% of Americans into forgoing the vaccine.  That's 3 million people.  If 10% of those 3 million people get symptomatic COVID over the next year because they forgo the vaccine, that's probably 500-1000+ deaths.  Not to mention the knock-on effects in our quest to reopen and get to herd immunity, stop variants, etc. 

I really don't see the cost benefit here.

This logic has to go both ways though. What is the impact of the vaccine-caused deaths on vaccine compliance? I would argue that as bad as the media storm is now, it would be far worse if the death toll from the vaccine starts slowly creeping up.

 

[ramssuperbowl99]

27 minutes ago, mission27 said:

think you have it slightly backwards.  If the risk is 1 in 1.4 million from COVID and 1 in 7 million from the shot, that would theoretically justify pausing the vaccine for about 1/5th of a day or ~5 hours, all deaths being equal and assuming no impact on the number of folks who eventually get vaccinated.  

Btw the 1 in 1.4 million would imply 200-250 COVID deaths a day, we are about 3x that on a trailing 7 day basis, so I'd argue your chances may be closer to 1 in 500k from COVID vs 1 in 7 million from the shot, in which case we'd only be willing to pause the vaccine for about an hour or two.  Clearly not practical or worthwhile. 

Sorry I forgot to respond to this - yeah I'm aware that even using the baseline math I got about 5x COVID deaths to the 1x vaccine death. It doesn't necessarily have to be a 1:1 ratio to pull the plug.

[mission27]

21 minutes ago, Xenos said:

Did you tell your friends that taking birth control has a better chance of giving them a blood clot than the vaccine?

No, I don't want a baby tbh

[Xenos]

1 minute ago, mission27 said:

No, I don't want a baby tbh

I would hope they wouldn’t either 😂

[squire12]

1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

The hard part is, this argument in and of itself is circular.

Fact: We have an unbelievably high obesity rate

Fact: Aside from the elderly, over 80% of Covid deaths are linked to people with obesity

Fact: Due to Covid, gyms and workout facilities were shut down for months in 2020, thus leading to more obesity

It's hard to weigh human life. Those 6 people may have been better off not getting the vaccine at all, whereas hundreds or thousands of others may have benefitted from taking that vaccine.

Your 3rd "fact" is probably more myth than fact.  Calories in is a far bigger piece of the equation than calorie out (in the form of exercise)

[Xenos]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2C01BC
 

Quote

Janet Woodcock, acting commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said the agency expected the pause to be a matter of days, and it was aimed at providing information to healthcare providers so they can diagnose, treat and report such blood clots.

Sounds like there was another reason they had to do the pause based on the quote below:

Quote

FDA's Marks said part of the reason for the pause was to warn doctors that administering the standard treatments for clots can cause tremendous harm in these cases, or be fatal.

 

[TLO]

5 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Your 3rd "fact" is probably more myth than fact.  Calories in is a far bigger piece of the equation than calorie out (in the form of exercise)

Was gonna say the same thing. Realistically, how many non obese healthy people became obese during the pandemic solely due to gym closures? Not saying it didn’t happen, but I don’t think the presence of the gym is that fine of a line between obese and not obese. 

[TLO]

5 minutes ago, Xenos said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2C01BC
 

Sounds like there was another reason they had to do the pause based on the quote below:

 

Totally get it but not sure it warrants putting a hold on injections. Presumably you can get that messaging out there in other forms. 

[Xenos]

3 minutes ago, TLO said:

Totally get it but not sure it warrants putting a hold on injections. Presumably you can get that messaging out there in other forms. 

I understand your points, and I understand why others think the pause needed to happen. It’s a damn if you do and damn if you don’t situation. Hopefully it’ll only be a few days and they figure out what’s the issue, and modify accordingly.

[squire12]

22 minutes ago, TLO said:

Was gonna say the same thing. Realistically, how many non obese healthy people became obese during the pandemic solely due to gym closures? Not saying it didn’t happen, but I don’t think the presence of the gym is that fine of a line between obese and not obese. 

affect on mental health due to alterations in exercise habits and preferences is something more likely

[mission27]

11 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

This logic has to go both ways though. What is the impact of the vaccine-caused deaths on vaccine compliance? I would argue that as bad as the media storm is now, it would be far worse if the death toll from the vaccine starts slowly creeping up.

 

 

Depends what you mean by 'creeping up.'  We've delivered 190 million doses of the vaccines in the US and so far have 1 death that is being reported as under investigation as related to a COVID vaccine adverse event and a handful of other potential adverse events including allergic reactions.  My guess is there are probably other deaths where the vaccines were contributing causes, especially among older folks, as has been reported in other countries (importantly, those countries where health authorities made the decision to flag these deaths despite very little data and low risk).  There's been very little media coverage of the adverse events, appropriately, given they are so rare, not definitively linked to the vaccine, and the CDC/FDA have maintained the vaccines are safe.

Now that the CDC/FDA have called this out and the vaccine is on pause, its headline news everywhere, and I think that's going to have a much bigger impact than extremely rare and isolated stories of potential adverse events that don't get much or any media coverage.