Packer_ESP Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 I just did a simulation of the whole season for the NFC North to see what my gut feeling told me about our playoff chances. This was the result doing a best case scenario (I'm an optimist regardless of how I may or may not look during Game Threads): Packers: 10 wins (vs Lions, at Bears, vs Ravens, vs Bucs, at Browns, vs Vikings). The big ones here are Week 9 and 16. Week 9 will give us hope or bury us and if all goes well, Week 16 will decide our fate. Vikings: 9 wins (vs Ravens, at Browns, at Lions, vs Bengals, vs Bears). The losses are tough games (at Redskins, vs Rams, at Falcons, at Panthers, at Packers). Redskins, Rams and Packers are probably the most questionable losses, if they take care of their business in one or two of those games there's probably nothing we can do. Lions: 7 wins (vs Browns, vs Bears, at Bengals, vs Packers). I think this defense is not going to hold the whole season, I just don't trust this team very much. Hopefully they won't prove me wrong week 9. Bears: 6 wins (vs Lions, vs 49ers, at Bengals, vs Browns). It wouldn't really surprise me if the Bears end up overtaking the Lions tbh, they've had some close losses and if Trubinsky holds they'll be a solid if unspectacular team. Obviously this is just a bunch of crap, I can't even predict one game (see the point spread pick'em) much less one season, but it was one theoretical exercise that made me think there are three keys to reach the post season other than health: Take care of the division. We have to go at least 3-1 including the Vikings game, otherwise we're toast. Take care of the AFC East. I don't think we can beat Pittsburgh (Bell and Brown are going to feast on us) but it's essential to avoid slipping against the Ravens and Browns. I don't think we'll beat the Saints (too early) or the Panthers (too tough and on the road) so we really have make Lambeau count vs the Bucs. Pretty unpredictable game including Winston's health, he's going to try to play through his injury so a lot can change between now and then. Can't wait for Week 9 to be honest, that'll probably make or break the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugger Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 I don't want to be Madam Gloom but I'm not entertaining the notion we will make the playoffs this year. This is the year to see what we have on this roster and how they respond to this adversity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Three things have to happen for us to make the playoffs this year: 1. We have to get and stay healthy. Everywhere. King, House, Burnett, Bakhtiari, Bulaga... They all have to stop missing games. 2. We can't suffer anymore injuries to starters. We have to have unheralded health. 3. Our defense has to change, and be a new defense successfully. No more bend, don't break. If all that happens, the Packers have a chance at making the playoffs. Hundley will be better than he was yesterday. The problem is that this team is only good enough to win a Super Bowl when Rodgers is QB. If he doesn't have a shot at playing in the playoffs, not sure I want us in the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 In a few weeks Hundley will be the 2nd best QB in the division, so yes we absolutely still can win the north. I don't see us making much noise in January however unless the defense turns it up a TON. And that means, Daniels, CMIII, Perry, Clark, Martinez all playing better than they are currently. King and House being healthy and really, really good. Burnett being healthy and, probably most importantly HHCD and Randall completely turning it around this year. Hard to see ALL that happening, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugger Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 We aren't gonna win the SB with Hundley back there so what good will it do for us to make the playoffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, Pugger said: We aren't gonna win the SB with Hundley back there so what good will it do for us to make the playoffs? Hoping Rodgers returns for playoffs is the assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, incognito_man said: In a few weeks Hundley will be the 2nd best QB in the division, so yes we absolutely still can win the north. I don't see us making much noise in January however unless the defense turns it up a TON. And that means, Daniels, CMIII, Perry, Clark, Martinez all playing better than they are currently. King and House being healthy and really, really good. Burnett being healthy and, probably most importantly HHCD and Randall completely turning it around this year. Hard to see ALL that happening, however. You're almost coming around. I was getting worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 33 minutes ago, Pugger said: I don't want to be Madam Gloom but I'm not entertaining the notion we will make the playoffs this year. This is the year to see what we have on this roster and how they respond to this adversity. Totally agree on the last part. That's gonna be very interesting for me to watch as it goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, NormSizedMidget said: Hoping Rodgers returns for playoffs is the assumption. well, winning the north gives the GB economy a shot in the arm too. Extra home playoff game is $$$. That's a successful season goal right now IMO. Plus, a WC win is feasible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, incognito_man said: well, winning the north gives the GB economy a shot in the arm too. Extra home playoff game is $$$. That's a successful season goal right now IMO. Plus, a WC win is feasible. That's true. Fans don't think of those things and usually don't want to. Not that I blame them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocHambone Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, NormSizedMidget said: Hoping Rodgers returns for playoffs is the assumption. *expecting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltarich87 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 If the Packers had a running game and a better than mostly average defense, they could still contend for the division. As it stands, they have neither of that, with injuries helping to aid in both of those situations. The OL is a wreck and the secondary wasn't great even at full health and they're nowhere near full health there. I'm sure Mac and his staff will do what they can to prepare Hundley and tailor the offense around him to help him play to his strengths, but this team is still largely dependent on their QB playing great. Hundley gonna have too much on his plate IMO I think they can win 3 more games the rest of the way, maybe 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, deltarich87 said: If the Packers had a running game and a better than mostly average defense, they could still contend for the division. As it stands, they have neither of that, with injuries helping to aid in both of those situations. The OL is a wreck and the secondary wasn't great even at full health and they're nowhere near full health there. I'm sure Mac and his staff will do what they can to prepare Hundley and tailor the offense around him to help him play to his strengths, but this team is still largely dependent on their QB playing great. Hundley gonna have too much on his plate IMO I think they can win 3 more games the rest of the way, maybe 4. None of the other division teams have a really strong defense AND a good QB either though. It's wide open. MIN has a below avg QB and a slight above average defense. DET has an avg to slightly below avg QB and a good defense (but one I feel is overachieving). CHI has a bad QB and an avg defense. There's really not a lot separating all 4 defenses right now. GB has played the worst of the bunch so far but has been severely understaffed. Likely going to come down to who can stay the most healthy from this point on, and who makes a play or 2 in the h2h matchups between MIN, DET and GB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 32 minutes ago, DocHambone said: *expecting Haha fair enough Doc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 oh, bollocks. Stafford is above average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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