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Green Bay Packers 2017 Draft Pick Watch


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44 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

I definitely like the mega haul trade Rodgers idea.  I know it's dumb, so don't argue with me whether or not it's dumb.  I still want to do it.  If Hundley is even Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor level, I'd trade Rodgers for three first round draft picks.  It would have to include the first overall pick, and there'd have to be an obvious pass rusher available for that first pick, but I'd definitely do it.  Brady doesn't win Super Bowls, quarterbacks don't win Super Bowls, defense wins Super Bowls.  It helps to have Brady/Rodgers, but even Brady/Rodgers don't win without top 10 scoring defenses. 

No offense but I'm glad you aren't our GM.  You only trade a QB of Rodgers' caliber if you have someone special backing him up.  If defenses win championships why are teams with poor QBs always searching for an elite one? 

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7 hours ago, Pugger said:

No offense but I'm glad you aren't our GM.  You only trade a QB of Rodgers' caliber if you have someone special backing him up.  If defenses win championships why are teams with poor QBs always searching for an elite one? 

Because you can't win with a poor QB. 

Can't win with poor QB, can't win Super Bowl with poor defense.  There are at least 20 quarterbacks good enough to win a Super Bowl with the number one defense in the NFL right now.  Peyton Manning was not Peyton Manning and he won the Super Bowl.  Russell Wilson could have been any QB in the world and the Seahawks still win that Super Bowl.  Flacco won a Super Bowl.  Eli Manning, third year starter Aaron Rodgers, Rex Grossman would have won a Super Bowl if he just handed it off instead of fumbled and intercepted the game away.  Brad Johnson, first year Brady, Trent Dilfer...

If you count Manning as an average QB the year the Broncos won (and he was a bad QB that year), and if you count Brady as average the first year he won (and he was), you're looking at:

9 great quarterbacks.
5 average quarterbacks.
3 bad quarterbacks.

Then look at the defenses...

Starting from last year, the Super Bowl winners and scoring defense (defense/S/T scores removed):

#1 scoring defense.
#4 scoring defense.
#7 scoring defense.
#1 scoring defense.
#9 scoring defense.
#21 scoring defense.    *
#2 scoring defense.
#18 scoring defense.    *
#2 scoring defense.
#15 scoring defense.    *
#11 scoring defense.    *
#4 scoring defense.
# 3 scoring defense.
#5 scoring defense.
#1 scoring defense.
#6 scoring defense.
#1 scoring defense.
#4 scoring defense (1999 Rams, the team everybody remembers for their offense). 

For the past 18 Super Bowl winners, 14 of the teams have been a top 10 scoring defense.  11 of them have been top 5.  Only four of them were outside the top ten. 

Let's look at the four teams that WERE NOT top ten in scoring defense, particularly their playoff performances:

*Giants second Super Bowl, the Giants allowed 2 points, 20 points, 17 points and 17 points in the playoffs.  That's an average of 14 points a game in the playoffs.  They held Rodgers and Brady to 17 points each.
*Giants first Super Bowl, the Giants allowed 14 points, 17 points, 20 points, 14 points.  Average of 16.25 points.  Their DEFENSE won that Super Bowl.
*Saints Super Bowl, they allowed 14, 28, 17 points.  Average of 19.6 points. 
*Colts Super Bowl, they allowed 8, 6, 34, 17 points.  Average of 16.25 points.

 

Bottom line, if I have a choice between Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or a guaranteed top 5 scoring defense for the next ten years, I'm taking that defense every.  Single.  Time. 

Tom Brady has never won a Super Bowl.  Aaron Rodgers has never won a Super Bowl.  Peyton Manning has never won a Super Bowl.  Drew Brees never won a Super Bowl  They've helped teams with good defenses win Super Bowls. 

What do people remember about Brady's 5 Super Bowls?  His first 3 they won grueling defensive struggles that wouldn't have gotten to field goal attempts without defense.  Against the Seahawks?  The interception.  Against the Falcons?  Brady wouldn't have had a chance if it wasn't for Hightower.  Not.  A.  Chance.  Would Rodgers have won if Matthews didn't force that fumble?  If Collins didn't get that touchdown?  Probably not.  Would the Saints have beaten the Colts without that Manning pick six?  Probably not. 

Defense wins championships.  That's why I dislike Rodgers.  Yes, he's the greatest QB of all time.  I really don't even doubt that, and neither should any non-Patriots fan (because Brady is clearly the second best), but Brady hasn't done squat without great defenses (and he won't even get to the Super Bowl this year), and neither has Rodgers. 

If I was a GM, I would call the Browns right now and say, "Hey, first of all, stockpiling draft picks doesn't work if you don't use them.  Second, why don't you send Myles Garrett and your first and second round picks to me and I'll give you Rodgers?  He should be healthy by next year."  Myles Garrett, the first or second overall pick next year, our pick plus a very high second round pick gets us to a Super Bowl within two years. 

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3 minutes ago, SassyFascistAlphaGuy said:

And if you trade away Rodgers and the picks bust, say goodbye to your job.

Exactly. 

I say he'd lose his job if he did it anyway.  You don't trade away a QB of Rodgers' caliber unless you have someone just as good waiting in the wings like we did when Favre "retired".

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On 10/18/2017 at 12:17 AM, HorizontoZenith said:

I definitely like the mega haul trade Rodgers idea.  I know it's dumb, so don't argue with me whether or not it's dumb.  I still want to do it.  If Hundley is even Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor level, I'd trade Rodgers for three first round draft picks.  It would have to include the first overall pick, and there'd have to be an obvious pass rusher available for that first pick, but I'd definitely do it.  Brady doesn't win Super Bowls, quarterbacks don't win Super Bowls, defense wins Super Bowls.  It helps to have Brady/Rodgers, but even Brady/Rodgers don't win without top 10 scoring defenses. 

I'd trade the other 52 players on our team, at once, before I trade Rodgers. But.....only if they take Capers as part of the deal. 

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16 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

I'd trade the other 52 players on our team, at once, before I trade Rodgers. But.....only if they take Capers as part of the deal. 

That would actually be a terrible idea if you think about it lol

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2 minutes ago, NormSizedMidget said:

That would actually be a terrible idea if you think about it lol

Obv I'm being facetious (to a degree), but the answer isn't letting go of Rodgers. The answer is keeping Rodgers and giving him what he needs to go win the damn SB. You want a trade? Trade our next few 1st, 2nd and/or 3rd rounders for a couple of hall of fame, pro bowl or all pro type caliber players on defense, get a DC who can run a basic scheme that the players actually buy into and let 12 do the rest. Trading Rodgers for the next Perry, HHCD, Harrell, Randall, Clark or combination of similar players isn't the answer if we are trying to win a championship.  

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3 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Obv I'm being facetious (to a degree), but the answer isn't letting go of Rodgers. The answer is keeping Rodgers and giving him what he needs to go win the damn SB. You want a trade? Trade our next few 1st, 2nd and/or 3rd rounders for a couple of hall of fame, pro bowl or all pro type caliber players on defense, get a DC who can run a basic scheme that the players actually buy into and let 12 do the rest. Trading Rodgers for the next Perry, HHCD, Harrell, Randall, Clark or combination of similar players isn't the answer if we are trying to win a championship.  

Oh I know you were. I just actually thought about how that would go for a second. There's virtually no scenario where I traded Rodgers. 

The issue with what you said too is okay go for that trade, you'd never get it under the cap, most likely. Then if you still don't win you're the Browns after.

I believe with the list you used though the idea was we needed a first overall or close in it too. So you don't get late 20s guys and that's it.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Let's update the situation:

  • Vikings 7-2
    • Next 4: vs Rams, at Lions, at Falcons, at Panthers
    • That's a pretty brutal stretch right there. The Rams are playing great and then they get 3 straight games on the road - one divisional and two teams that aren't at their highest right now but are still tough teams.
    • We have to hope they won't win more than 2 games during that stretch (9-4). One would be orgasmic but I don't really count on it.
  • Packers 5-4
    • Next 4: vs Ravens, at Steelers, vs Buccaneers, at Browns
    • There's three very winnable games there and the Steelers is a pretty tough matchup.
    • We should win 3 of those if we want to stay in the fight (8-5), and it has to start with the Ravens. Going back to 5-5 would be brutal for our morale.
  • Lions 5-4
    • Next 4: at Bears, vs Vikings, at Ravens, at Buccaneers
    • Three winnable games (though are all on the road) and a tough divisional matchup with the Vikes.
    • The Lions could be back in the fight after this stretch with 3 wins (8-5). Gotta keep an eye of them, they're very alive (though we can always count on them doing Lion things at some point).
  • Bears 3-6
    • Next 4: vs Lions, at Eagles, vs 49ers, at Bengals
    • Two winnable games for them but they'll find a way to lose one of them probably.
    • Should be 4-9 after the stretch, maybe 5-10.

The Vikings are rolling right now, we have to hope the tough stretch ahead will set them back at least enough to allow us to claw back 1 game.

Just believe babe

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What's the earliest we could get Rodgers back? Week 16 vs the Vikings I think? I obviously don't want him to rush back to go up against that tough defense but it'd be nice to have him back there. It would be just over 9 weeks since his surgery...here's hoping he has already or will soon make a trip to Germany 

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If we can beat the Ravens then we can talk about our chances at making the playoffs.  I still have my doubts even after yesterday.  The best thing about that game is seeing improvement in Hundley and Williams run hard after Ty and Jones got hurt.   :)

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We're gonna ride the wave and win our next four.  Only reason I believe this is because the Ravens offense sucks, the Steelers play to their competition, and the Buccaneers and Browns suck worse than any teams we'll play this year.

We're going to lose to the Panthers.  Aaron comes back for a revenge game against the Vikings. 

It's sad, and I'm just coming to terms with it myself, but we're going to the playoffs this year.  I'm doubtful.  Highly skeptical.  I'm seeing a wildcard heartbreaker where every phase (offense, defense, special teams) plays well, but we lose anyway.  However... In the playoffs, anything can happen. 

Nobody take over gameday threads anymore.  I started making the gameday threads last year once we were 4-6.  We went 8-0 over the next 8 weeks including playoffs. 

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25 minutes ago, Pugger said:

If we can beat the Ravens then we can talk about our chances at making the playoffs.  I still have my doubts even after yesterday.  The best thing about that game is seeing improvement in Hundley and Williams run hard after Ty and Jones got hurt.   :)

Agree completely. I think 9 wins could get us in, with this wacky NFL season, but let's aim for 10.

 

Win vs Balt would give us 6. Then we should win vs Tampa, 2 Cleveland and let's say Aaron comes back week 17 and wins @ Det, that gives us 9 wins.

 

That leaves us @ Pitt, @ Car, vs Minny... It would be tough to take one of those games. 

Winning vs Balt is a must though imo. 

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On ‎11‎/‎13‎/‎2017 at 9:01 AM, pollino14 said:

Agree completely. I think 9 wins could get us in, with this wacky NFL season, but let's aim for 10.

 

Win vs Balt would give us 6. Then we should win vs Tampa, 2 Cleveland and let's say Aaron comes back week 17 and wins @ Det, that gives us 9 wins.

 

That leaves us @ Pitt, @ Car, vs Minny... It would be tough to take one of those games. 

Winning vs Balt is a must though imo. 

Games against Pitt are always wacky.

We run basically the exact same defense so usually it is crazy high scoring. Maybe that will help Hundley

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57 minutes ago, SpeightTheVillain said:

Games against Pitt are always wacky.

We run basically the exact same defense so usually it is crazy high scoring. Maybe that will help Hundley

Ben, Bell and Brown get to play against a worse version of their defense?

lol

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