incognito_man Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 1 minute ago, skibrett15 said: oh, bollocks. Stafford is above average '12 - 12th in DVOA '13 - 15th in DVOA '14 - 21st in DVOA '15 - 10th in DVOA '16 - 14th in DVOA '17 - 19th in DVOA (prior to his 3 INT game vs New Orleans) Stafford is may literally be the poster boy for 'average QB'. I bet this poster actually exists. I didn't even quite imagine he was THIS average when I made that comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 1 minute ago, incognito_man said: '12 - 12th in DVOA '13 - 15th in DVOA '14 - 21st in DVOA '15 - 10th in DVOA '16 - 14th in DVOA '17 - 19th in DVOA (prior to his 3 INT game vs New Orleans) Stafford is may literally be the poster boy for 'average QB'. I bet this poster actually exists. I didn't even quite imagine he was THIS average when I made that comment. To be average over that many years in a row is by definition to be above average. What you should look at is DYAR not DVOA, which rewards one year starters and rookies with no game film, and spot starters over 4-5 games. 2011-2017 5th, 6th, 12th, 15th, 9th, 9th, 18th Just look at the guys who are above him in DVOA, behind him in DYAR some of those years and aren't in the NFL or aren't viable starters: Kapernick (2x) RGIII Nick Foles (2x) Josh McCown Ryan Fitzpatrick Derek Anderson Drew Stanton Jay Cutler Brian Hoyer Case Keenum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 that's not how this works... sure he will have an above average career due to longevity, but any any given season he is absolutely average. He is below average so far this year, in fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 I'd rather have him than all but 8 or 10 qbs. He'd be very good in this offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Just now, skibrett15 said: I'd rather have him than all but 8 or 10 qbs. He'd be very good in this offense. but he's not very good in their's and that's all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 I guess I don't like the idea of "below average qb" when it's really saying "below average passing offense". I don't see QB as the issue there. It hasn't been the issue since he toned down the INTs in 2014. Below average coach, below average skill players, below average offense. Pretty good QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: I guess I don't like the idea of "below average qb" when it's really saying "below average passing offense". I don't see QB as the issue there. It hasn't been the issue since he toned down the INTs in 2014. Below average coach, below average skill players, below average offense. Pretty good QB. I never said he's below average. He is almost exactly average every.single.year. It's kind of uncanny actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 the offense is average. It would be putrid without him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Matthew Stafford Tier: 3 Rank: 17 Write-up: Matthew Stafford was benched for a poor performance against the Arizona Cardinals back in October 2015. The Lions quarterback three three interceptions in less than three quarters, forcing Jim Caldwell to turn to Dan Orlovsky. Stafford didn’t lose his starting spot, he was in for the first snap for all 16 games that year. But that was the catalyst for the coordinator change that would soon follow. Jim Bob Cooter took over the Lions offense and set about easing the pressure on his quarterback. Cooter implemented safer passing concepts that concentrated Stafford’s reads in specific areas of the field. He threw outside and short more than over the middle. Screens became a major part of the offense’s identity. In 2016 Stafford led the league with 76 screens. Only three quarterbacks threw a higher percentage of screens and only one of those quarterbacks gained a higher percentage of his yards on screens. Alex Smith and Jared Goff were the only quarterbacks to gain more of their yards after the catch than Stafford’s 52.43 percent. Cooter didn’t turn Stafford into something he wasn’t or build this very specific offense that highlighted his strengths, he babied him. He tried to limit his impact on games by asking him to do less, it’s why 23.39 percent, the second-highest rate in the league, of Stafford’s throws didn’t cross the line of scrimmage last year. The problem with asking Stafford to run a more expansive passing game is his commitment to mental errors and erratic ball placement. Even while being celebrated as an MVP candidate because of fourth quarter comebacks last season, Stafford was still playing with the same reckless abandon that has come to define his career. He finished the 2016 season with a 4.63 interceptable pass rate, a below average number that put him behind 23 other quarterbacks. His biggest issues have always been leading defenders to the ball with his eyes over the middle of the field and throwing the ball too far infield when trying to target receivers outside the numbers. Those problems shone through even in Cooter’s offense, even as he had the fifth-lowest average depth of target and the ninth-lowest rate of passes into the 11-20 yard range. An ability to perform in unclean pockets and athleticism to extend plays into either flat before making difficult throws allows Stafford to offset some of his negatives. The Lions haven’t had a good offensive line over recent years so Stafford has been forced to find ways to be productive outside of structure. Those difficult conditions tested his poise and toughness. He hasn’t overcome those challenges with the same consistency of those who rank above him but he does make plays that most of the quarterbacks below him are simply incapable of making. Stafford is 29 years old. He is who he is at this point, someone with a career closer to Jay Cutler’s rather than Ben Roethlisberger’s. Did you know? Only 9.42 percent of Matthew Stafford’s passes travelled further than 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, 23 quarterbacks in the league were more aggressive. 28 quarterbacks threw a higher percentage of their passes further than 10 yards downfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 someone else who views him as almost exactly average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 42 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: oh, bollocks. Stafford is above average Have to agree with this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, NormSizedMidget said: Have to agree with this too. he flashes some elite potential absolutely, but he's inconsistent and the overall product is just average. I was SUPER high on him years ago, so it's not like I'm a hater. I thought he was going to be absolutely elite. But he never put it all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, incognito_man said: he flashes some elite potential absolutely, but he's inconsistent and the overall product is just average. I was SUPER high on him years ago, so it's not like I'm a hater. I thought he was going to be absolutely elite. But he never put it all together. I think average sells him short, how much more than "average" is he, I guess that's another thing. So many guys in his tier seem identical to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, NormSizedMidget said: I think average sells him short, how much more than "average" is he, I guess that's another thing. So many guys in his tier seem identical to me. if I can pick 10 guys that are better than him right now, I think the guy is in the 'average' tier. Just roughly how I figured things off the top of my head. That average tier is rather large for me and he's squarely in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Just now, incognito_man said: if I can pick 10 guys that are better than him right now, I think the guy is in the 'average' tier. Just roughly how I figured things off the top of my head. That average tier is rather large for me and he's squarely in it. That's fair. It becomes the whole "what is average to you" thing. I agree with your assessment as far as I can tell, just not average or below. Which doesn't really mean anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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