the free agent frenzy 2021 - a thread to discuss what teams with money are doing with it

[mikemike778]

9 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

This is all hype.

Preston is $20m and will be cut with $7.25m dead cap hit
Zee Smith is $28m and will be extended
Kenny has $8m salary that will converted to singing bonus

Host of other moves that can be done. 

Main one is Rodgers $40m salary, $17.5 dead hit. He will either be traded or extended. 
 

 

Which is the big one.

I don't think anyone sees a high probability of us competing in 22 for a title if Love is QB. So if you aren't competing there is little point in making moves such as pushing Kenny's cap hits down the road. That doesn't make sense. No matter how much the cap increases if you push 8m down the road you are giving everyone else a 8m advantage over you in future years. That makes sense if you are competing for a title but makes no sense if you are rebuilding with a rookie QB. There is no point in weakening your team in future years to help you in a rebuild year.

For me, we make a decision and either go with Rodgers in 22 and do whatever you can to try and fiddle the cap to make it work in 22. Or you move on in which case, the rational thing to do is cut Z, let Adams go and so on. 

 

 

[craig]

39 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

....Main one is Rodgers $40m salary, $17.5 dead hit. He will either be traded or extended. 

Super dumb questions that all you smarter guys have known forever, I'm sure.  

When a guy on a multi-year deal gets traded, the trading team gets tagged with the full remaining dead-cap, correct?  Same as if the player was just released?  So in terms of cap relief, a trade and a release have the same cap impact, yes?  And the acquiring team takes on none of the pro-rated signing-bonus cap hit?  (This is obviously for in general, nothing special for Aaron.  I know the Packers don't trade for established players on multiyear contracts, but *IF* they did I've wanted to be clear on the cap implications.).  

I've not been familiar with voidable years until this offseason.  What happens to those in event of a trade?  Are they treated the same as signing-bonus, so the trading team is immediately capped for voidable-year dollars?  Or are they treated like contract, so that the acquiring team is responsible and cap-liable for those future voidable years? 

Thanks in advance!  

[Packer_ESP]

12 minutes ago, craig said:

When a guy on a multi-year deal gets traded, the trading team gets tagged with the full remaining dead-cap, correct?  Same as if the player was just released?  So in terms of cap relief, a trade and a release have the same cap impact, yes?  And the acquiring team takes on none of the pro-rated signing-bonus cap hit?

There basically two types of "guaranteed" money:

• Signing bonus: this is money that was actually already paid to the player at the time of the contract signing but its cap is spread over 5 years or the length of the contract, whichever is shorter. If you release/trade a player before that cap hit has been accounted for it's accelerated to the current year (or part to the current and part to the next if it's a post June 1st cut). This does not have any impact on the receiving team if there is a trade, 100% of this is on the trading team.
• Future guarantees: if your contract includes a guaranteed salary for a year (let's say 2022) and you cut a player before that year is up, you will have to pay that money to the player and its cap will impact you on the current year. However, if you trade the player, the new team inherits that contract and they're the ones that must pay that salary when the year 2022 comes. If they cut him before 2022, they will have to pay the money and it will count against their cap.

Edited April 5, 2021 by Packer_ESP

[Brit Pack]

1 hour ago, mikemike778 said:

I don't think anyone sees a high probability of us competing in 22 for a title if Love is QB.

You don' know and I don't know the answer to that, as we have never seen a snap of Love in a Packers uniform. My guess is the way the FO playing this is that they would only trade Rodgers if they believed they had something in Love, if not they would extend Rodgers next year and lower his cap hit as after this season he only has $11.5m guaranteed, so he would be inclined to extend and get more guaranteed cash

[Victor1124]

Really just all in on us hopefully freeing up some money and signing Geno Atkins then having enough left over for a veteran RT. Then double down and draft both of those positions early.

[mikemike778]

5 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

You don' know and I don't know the answer to that, as we have never seen a snap of Love in a Packers uniform. My guess is the way the FO playing this is that they would only trade Rodgers if they believed they had something in Love, if not they would extend Rodgers next year and lower his cap hit as after this season he only has $11.5m guaranteed, so he would be inclined to extend and get more guaranteed cash

True ..

But being objective the probability of Jordan Love being a Championship winning level QB from day 1 is incredibly low. Aaron Rodgers wasn't at that level in his first season - maybe Love is another level above Rodgers but we are talking low odds here.  Its poor management to significantly weaken your team in future years to spend it in a year when your chance of competing is low.

People think extending Adams and Rodgers is some magic answer. Think about the numbers. If we take Adams ...

Consensus is that Adams is going to command a WR market setting contract. So if we are going to give him that and lower his cap hit in 2021 (pushing it into 2022 onwards) how much is the rest of the contract going to be (which will be his new contract plus everything you pushed back from 21) ?   We have no cap room in 2022 so this market setting contract will be crammed into 2023 onwards (so basically your back dated 21, 22 money plus everything else). You will be paying QB money to an old regressing receiver with an injury history.

Same with Rodgers - his cap hit is so high because we restructured him. If you keep on extending/restructuring the cap hits you push back just get bigger and bigger. Again Z if you extend to lower his cap hit in 22 then his new contract will have all the money you pushed back as well as his new contract which will be significant. Yes, the caps will rise but its not great management to have these monster contracts on old players.

Not being downbeat about it all.  I'm quite optimistic - looking forward to the team having a real go at it in 21.  And then realistically probably a very different roster afterwards - change can be good.  Ideally would like to have Rodgers here for a few more years but it does look like its time.

By the way - would still be happy to wake up to the news that Adams, Rodgers, Z and so on have extended, and would look forward to seeing them play for longer if we can make it work. Just looks to me like its not the direction we have to go.

[HeresAGuy]

Panthers just got darnold for peanuts (6th this year, 2nd and 4th next year), I love that deal for the panthers, absolutely no Risk there that cheap 

[skibrett15]

18 minutes ago, HeresAGuy said:

Panthers just got darnold for peanuts (6th this year, 2nd and 4th next year), I love that deal for the panthers, absolutely no Risk there that cheap 

trading a 2nd isn't no risk.  2nd round picks are usually good players.  Darnold has gotten worse each and every year.  I'm not saying it's a bad gamble to take, but that's hardly No Risk

[cannondale]

1 hour ago, HeresAGuy said:

Panthers just got darnold for peanuts (6th this year, 2nd and 4th next year), I love that deal for the panthers, absolutely no Risk there that cheap 

I wonder if that 2nd and 4th are contingent on him making the team ?? His contract ends this year. Not all that cheap if you ask me

Edited April 5, 2021 by cannondale

[Brit Pack]

2 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

True ..

But being objective the probability of Jordan Love being a Championship winning level QB from day 1 is incredibly low. Aaron Rodgers wasn't at that level in his first season - maybe Love is another level above Rodgers but we are talking low odds here.  Its poor management to significantly weaken your team in future years to spend it in a year when your chance of competing is low.

People think extending Adams and Rodgers is some magic answer. Think about the numbers. If we take Adams ...

Consensus is that Adams is going to command a WR market setting contract. So if we are going to give him that and lower his cap hit in 2021 (pushing it into 2022 onwards) how much is the rest of the contract going to be (which will be his new contract plus everything you pushed back from 21) ?   We have no cap room in 2022 so this market setting contract will be crammed into 2023 onwards (so basically your back dated 21, 22 money plus everything else). You will be paying QB money to an old regressing receiver with an injury history.

Same with Rodgers - his cap hit is so high because we restructured him. If you keep on extending/restructuring the cap hits you push back just get bigger and bigger. Again Z if you extend to lower his cap hit in 22 then his new contract will have all the money you pushed back as well as his new contract which will be significant. Yes, the caps will rise but its not great management to have these monster contracts on old players.

Not being downbeat about it all.  I'm quite optimistic - looking forward to the team having a real go at it in 21.  And then realistically probably a very different roster afterwards - change can be good.  Ideally would like to have Rodgers here for a few more years but it does look like its time.

By the way - would still be happy to wake up to the news that Adams, Rodgers, Z and so on have extended, and would look forward to seeing them play for longer if we can make it work. Just looks to me like its not the direction we have to go.

Thing is cap is going to go up markedly in 2023, new TV deal, 17 games etc so all of these back loaded contracts will seem like peanuts and there will be very little impact to our competitiveness going forward. 

The main question will be what is the Rodgers situtation. All I can say with confidence is he won't have a $40m cap hit  in 2022 for the Packers. If he balls out again this year and shows little to no signs of regression he will be extended and that figure will go down. If his play drops AND Love looks like the real deal then he will be traded and we'll gain $23m in cap space. 

[VonKarman]

Am I the only one who thinks that Rodgers is never going to be extended year? He still has 3 years of his deal and will be 40 by the time the deal ends. Our worst case scenario is that Love is a huge bust and we just let Rodgers finish his deal no matter how good/bad he plays. Our best case scenario is that Love is a quality starter, Rodgers plays at a Top 3 QB level again and we can get 3 1sts for him.

[MacReady]

2 hours ago, VonKarman said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Rodgers is never going to be extended year? He still has 3 years of his deal and will be 40 by the time the deal ends. Our worst case scenario is that Love is a huge bust and we just let Rodgers finish his deal no matter how good/bad he plays. Our best case scenario is that Love is a quality starter, Rodgers plays at a Top 3 QB level again and we can get 3 1sts for him.

We shouldn't have extended Rodgers the last contract he signed.  He had two years left on that one, too.

With a one year franchise tag, there is zero reason whatsoever we extend Rodgers unless we want to go all in on this season to win a Super Bowl.

People often say it's unfair for the Packers to have gone from HOF QB to HOF QB.  It would be cosmically unfair if the Packers knew what the **** to do when they had a HOF QB and when to do it. 

Gute literally made the exact same mistakes Thompson did.  No, it was worse.

Draft your QBOTF (2005)
Go all out, sign a bunch of defenders to improve the defense (2006)
Get a down year in your quarterback's cap hit (10.8% hit to the cap for Favre in 2007 which was a 4 year low) and do NOTHING ABOUT IT.

Thompson failed the Packers in 2007.  He makes that move for Moss that everyone in the world knew was close as hell to happening and that's the difference.  Patriots without Moss, Packers with Moss?  Yeah, that's a Super Bowl win for Favre.

 

 

[packfanfb]

4 hours ago, VonKarman said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Rodgers is never going to be extended year? He still has 3 years of his deal and will be 40 by the time the deal ends. Our worst case scenario is that Love is a huge bust and we just let Rodgers finish his deal no matter how good/bad he plays. Our best case scenario is that Love is a quality starter, Rodgers plays at a Top 3 QB level again and we can get 3 1sts for him.

The problem is his cap hit though. You wouldn't be extending him to "extend" him, you're using the extension as a tool to lower his cap hit for the next few years when he's still playing great football. If you pay Rodgers $37m and $39m on the cap the next 2 seasons, can you field a championship team around that? Can you make that extra move or two? The Packers wouldn't be extending 12 so he can be the QB the next 5 years, they'd be doing it so it puts them in a better position to win a SB in the next 2 years. 

Right now, the Packers are kind of sitting in the middle, paying a QB so much money that it paralyzes their ability to address other needs. You need to free that money up, either by extending the player or trading him. What we're currently doing probably won't work. 

[AlexGreen#20]

30 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

We shouldn't have extended Rodgers the last contract he signed.  He had two years left on that one, too.

With a one year franchise tag, there is zero reason whatsoever we extend Rodgers unless we want to go all in on this season to win a Super Bowl.

People often say it's unfair for the Packers to have gone from HOF QB to HOF QB.  It would be cosmically unfair if the Packers knew what the **** to do when they had a HOF QB and when to do it. 

Gute literally made the exact same mistakes Thompson did.  No, it was worse.

Draft your QBOTF (2005)
Go all out, sign a bunch of defenders to improve the defense (2006)
Get a down year in your quarterback's cap hit (10.8% hit to the cap for Favre in 2007 which was a 4 year low) and do NOTHING ABOUT IT.

Thompson failed the Packers in 2007.  He makes that move for Moss that everyone in the world knew was close as hell to happening and that's the difference.  Patriots without Moss, Packers with Moss?  Yeah, that's a Super Bowl win for Favre.

 

 

There's no such thing as a guaranteed win with Favre as your QB. There's always that 10% chance he's going to throw you out of a game.

[Packerraymond]

Sounds like an Adams extension post draft is likely reading what Silverstein has been putting out.

I'd imagine we're done until the draft and UDFA. We'll look at the depth chart then, extend Adams, put 9m on the books and grab vets where needed to fill out the roster.

Leave Aaron untouched. If he plays well, his contract next year can provide massive savings. If you move out too much money this year, he becomes harder to gain much space from next year. 

Think instead of one year all in, we're going 80% of the way this year so we can do it again next year without too much of a roster purge. 

I'd still guess Love is the starter come 2023 and Rodgers can decide at 40 if he wants to keep playing for a different team or move on to other life interests. This will all depend on him keeping up his level of play, and also the possibility of him getting a ring, will he walk away on top if he gets a chance?