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1st Round QB: The Last Piece of the Puzzle?


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 I can only see one of two possibilities for a QB; 

1) Trade up for a QB into top 5, giving up #15, a future first (maybe more) and up to a third round pick.  Then trade back from our second for a late second, and two third rounders for more depth

(I'm 90% this won't happen)

 

2) If Jones is there at 15, take him. If not, got to go for a Day 2/3 guy like Trask, Newman or Mond - use 15 to get a CB, probably

 

Edited by Hunter2_1
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25 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

 I can only see one of two possibilities for a QB; 

1) Trade up for a QB into top 5, giving up #15, a future first (maybe more) and up to a third round pick.  Then trade back from our second for a late second, and two third rounders for more depth

(I'm 90% this won't happen)

 

2) If Jones is there at 15, take him. If not, got to go for a Day 2/3 guy like Trask, Newman or Mond - use 15 to get a CB, probably

 

why don't you think a trade up to 7-10 happens?

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Jags will pick Lawrence, that's obvious.

Jets will pick a QB, almost certainly Wilson

I do not see the Dolphins moving on from Tua. Watson might be the other option but I don't see them taking a QB. Chase or Sewell.

The Falcons can definitely pick a QB. I think I would lean towards Pitts for them but Justin Fields here would not surprise me.

Bengals will pick Sewell or Pitts imo. I think they would trade back if they are not there.

Eagles will go QB imo.

After that the Broncos and Panthers could also look at a QB.

 

I see no way we can sit at 15 and get Jones. 4 QBs in the first 6 picks is on the table but I definitely see 3. The Broncos and Panthers could push for Watson but if his legal problems are not resolved until the draft, they could be desperate.

 

I think Belichick will aggressively trade up to get the QB he wants. If he wants Fields, I think he will look to acquire Atlanta's pick. If they do not trade the pick, I think they will take Fields themselves. Would be interested to see if Belichick would take the bait and look to go up to #3. In this case I think he eyes 4 overall though if he wants Justin Fields. If Belichick is certain Atlanta and Miami don't go QB a trade up to #5 also makes sense.

The Eagles don't seem to trust Hurts. I think QB will happen here. If Lance goes there, Detroit is next. I doubt they pick a QB so they would be a realistic trade partner. Assuming PHI takes Lance, the question becomes if Belichick would take Jones at 7. Or is it too rich for him and he would rather take best available at 15 and look to for someone like Mond in the 2nd round?

 

If I had to bet I think Belichick signed all these players to go real hard after a QB and I see a significant trade up. Fields at 4 is more likely than Jones at 7 to me. This Jones at 15 talk is very unrealistic.

 

 

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1 hour ago, SBLIII said:

Eagles will go QB imo.

The Eagles don't seem to trust Hurts. I think QB will happen here. 

I agree with the majority of your post but I'm not sure why you're so convinced the Eagles are going QB? If anything, the Flacco signing makes it seem like they are going all in on Hurts with a reliable if not spectacular backup just in case. I'd be utterly amazed if they voluntarily got themselves into another messy QB debate next year, especially when Hurts showed promise and they have so many other roster holes to fill.

For me we have potential trade partners from 4th-7th, but as you say if Watson isn't available we can expect the Panthers to be aggressive in the draft with Denver and SF also rival trade up candidates.

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2 minutes ago, ToonPatriot said:

I agree with the majority of your post but I'm not sure why you're so convinced the Eagles are going QB? If anything, the Flacco signing makes it seem like they are going all in on Hurts with a reliable if not spectacular backup just in case. I'd be utterly amazed if they voluntarily got themselves into another messy QB debate next year, especially when Hurts showed promise and they have so many other roster holes to fill.

For me we have potential trade partners from 4th-7th, but as you say if Watson isn't available we can expect the Panthers to be aggressive in the draft with Denver and SF also rival trade up candidates.

yep, I think it's safe to assume we need pick between 4 and 7 to get the QB we want. It's probably going to take about another 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds and a 4th or so which I'm perfectly fine with if they nail this QB choice.

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3 hours ago, SBLIII said:

why don't you think a trade up to 7-10 happens?

I said top 5, but if we're thinking 7-10;

Risk is one. There could be a scenario where all of Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, and Lance are gone by then. We've traded into 7th position, and we still have the same prospects available as at 15, as they've been taken in top 6

Cost is another. The price to get to #4 to guarantee you got one of them was this year’s 1st (#15) this year’s 2nd (#46) and next year’s 1st? Two 1sts and a 2nd for the 4th pick. Atlanta will ask for this at least.

Competition - you have to assume if we're willing to do that, Carolina and Denver are too, and they have better capital. We may have to trade 2 drafts for the possibility at getting Fields or Lance. Chicago were also willing to mortgage their roster to get Wilson....let's add them to the mix

Value - Worth it? Maybe. This is a prediction that we won't trade down

 

 

 

 

Edited by Hunter2_1
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    On the 5-point [Arm] Strength-Accuracy-Mobility-Intelligence ("SAMI") scale Mac Jones (4-5-2-5) is ideal for the Patriots.  His mediocre footwork brings him within draft range while the team's excellent O-Line compensates.   I can imagine Belichick trading up a few spots to get Mac but not selling the farm for the less coachable Justin Fields (4-5-4-2).  Fourth rated Trey Lance (5-3-4-1) will be fine in, say, Denver, but doesn't fit the Patriots mold because his assets are the ability to outrun New England's blockers in order to overthrow its WRs...with average accuracy and few other quarterbacking skills.  Trask (3-4-2-4) is a pauper's Jones, like Mond (4-3-2-4). 

    My guess is that Belichick will sit tight at #15.  If he gets Mac Jones I'd expect dancing in the streets of Boston.  Yes, this is the final piece.  Otherwise, we'll see a backup plan.  People will joke about him taking Brady [White, 1-2-2-3] in the sixth round but Bill will likely go with the clumsy K.J. "Condor" Costello.

 

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We should go the KC Chiefs route, and trade up for an uber talented QB, and sit him for a year whilst he learns the ropes on a good team, before unseating the previous QB and taking us back to the SB.

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5 hours ago, SBLIII said:

yep, I think it's safe to assume we need pick between 4 and 7 to get the QB we want. It's probably going to take about another 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds and a 4th or so which I'm perfectly fine with if they nail this QB choice.

Call me crazy but I rather give up 2022 1st than this years 2nd. Reason I see us picking later in the 1st 2022 and i would rather have a player in the system ASAP. IMO there's little difference in talent in the lower 1st and high the 2nd RD. The only thing is the 5th year.

EX 2022 pick OL   2021 2nd RD  OL.

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QB I will actively pound the table for:

Lawrence, Wilson

QB I'd be fine trading up for:

Fields

QBs I'd be fine taking at 15:

Jones, Lance

QBs I'd be happy taking on day 2 or 3:

Newman, Mills

QB I don't want any part of: 

Trask

 

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3 hours ago, Starless said:

QB I will actively pound the table for:

Lawrence, Wilson

QB I'd be fine trading up for:

Fields

QBs I'd be fine taking at 15:

Jones, Lance

QBs I'd be happy taking on day 2 or 3:

Newman, Mills

QB I don't want any part of: 

Trask

 

What about if we traded up just 3 or 4 spots to get Jones? 

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I think we'll be facing the scenario of by pick 7, all of Wilson, Lawrence, Fields and Lance will be gone. So we'll be thinking 'crap, 7 more picks to survive if we want Jones....'

Imagine that for a second. If you really want Jones, this will be quite stressful. He'd have to get past Carolina, Denver and SF. Not to mention a non-QB needy team like Dallas could trade out to say...Chicago or Washington.

 

We may need to trade up even to get Mac Freaking Jones

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1 hour ago, Hunter2_1 said:

I think we'll be facing the scenario of by pick 7, all of Wilson, Lawrence, Fields and Lance will be gone. So we'll be thinking 'crap, 7 more picks to survive if we want Jones....'

Imagine that for a second. If you really want Jones, this will be quite stressful. He'd have to get past Carolina, Denver and SF. Not to mention a non-QB needy team like Dallas could trade out to say...Chicago or Washington.

 

We may need to trade up even to get Mac Freaking Jones

yep, as I said we could very well be facing the question if pick 4 Fields or pick 7 Jones is better. Jones at 15 will not happen because there will be an early run at QBs. If we want Mac Jones we will have to wait for the Eagles pick and act accordingly. But even then I still wouldn't be sure that Denver and Carolina don't take a QB, so really all 5 QBs should be gone by pick 9 in my opinion.

We will have to hope that Atlanta is giving Matt Ryan Chase, Pitts or Sewell, the Eagles trust Hurts and Fields, Lance and Jones drop a bit that even after Carolina and Denver there is someone available.

I do have my doubts though. And even if someone is available past Denver and even if SF passes on a QB and goes for a premium CB, we could still see a team like Washington trade up for a top 5 QB if someone is available in the teens.

 

So really the question becomes, how high do we have to and want to trade up for the guy we like or can we get a premium talent at 15 and can we get away getting Kellen Mond at 45? And he probably sits 1 year.

 

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I have been following the draft before computers were invented!!!!  Just off the top of my head, Pats passed on the player I wanted in the 1st rd. The players that they picked that  I wanted and THEY got it right were , Lester Williams. Merriwheather and Ty Warren.

I want Jones bad !!!! The Pats pick ...  Ah crap how could they pass on him!!!!!!

Edited by m haynes
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8 hours ago, Starless said:

QB I will actively pound the table for:

Lawrence, Wilson

QB I'd be fine trading up for:

Fields

QBs I'd be fine taking at 15:

Jones, Lance

QBs I'd be happy taking on day 2 or 3:

Newman, Mills

QB I don't want any part of: 

Trask

 

Everything but the Trask part I am in agreement on.

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