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I'm curious who you guys like with our 1st round pick


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5 minutes ago, ditchdigger said:

Hard to believe Woods was operating his defense as planned with all the injuries in the secondary. 
 

very true, but in 2017 when he coordinated the Broncos, Brandon Marshall played the most snaps on defense (92%) and in ‘18 Todd Davis played the 6th most at 78%.

5 minutes ago, ditchdigger said:

LB is a role player in his defense. You don't draft role players in the 1st.

I’m not sure how a guy who typically calls the defense and plays 80ish percent of all snaps is considered a role player.

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I’m just not seeing the logic in pretending you can ignore an entire position group.

I mean..

Steelers: drafted Timmons and Bush in the first round, typically have a great defense.

Ravens: Lewis, Mosley, Queen, typically have a great defense

Bucs: Just won the SB with two first round off ball linebackers

Bills: very good defense, spent a first on Edmunds.

Seahawks: spent a top 50 pick on Wagner and resigned him to big money, consistently good defense.

Pats: drafted Hightower in the first.

Colts: Invested in Darius Leonard, very solid defense.

 

And here we are not having drafted a first or second round linebacker since.... Jackson?? in ‘06 and continually wondering why we can’t stop the run or cover TE’s.  Sometimes things are just as simple as they seem.

 

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54 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I’ve heard this repeatedly and repeatedly seen perennial playoff teams invest in the position. At some point maybe we need to question the thought process.

As I’ve said before, we don’t need 3 pro bowlers, but you need SOMEONE who is a difference maker at the second level.

Yeah cause the playoff teams already have other positions locked up, so they can invest into the positional group. You also don’t have to over pay LBs like you do with DL and corners. Browns don’t need difference makers. Browns just need guys who can do their job. They struggled with that last year.

Like when KC transformed their defense when it was holding them back, they did so by improving their DL and secondary not by drastically improving their Lb group.

 

Improve the secondary and DL first

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3 minutes ago, buno67 said:

Yeah cause the playoff teams already have other positions locked up, so they can invest into the positional group. You also don’t have to over pay LBs like you do with DL and corners. Browns don’t need difference makers. Browns just need guys who can do their job. They struggled with that last year.

Like when KC transformed their defense when it was holding them back, they did so by improving their DL and secondary not by drastically improving their Lb group.

 

Improve the secondary and DL first

I get that and if the best players available are CB and DE all the better, but we can’t keep shying away forever imo.

If a stud LB is there, just take them. It will pay dividends.

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1 hour ago, ditchdigger said:

That's gonna be a rover, not a traditional LB

Does durability factor into player ratings in analytics?

If it does, why would we consider someone like Newsom or Phillips BPA at 26?

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2 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

very true, but in 2017 when he coordinated the Broncos, Brandon Marshall played the most snaps on defense (92%) and in ‘18 Todd Davis played the 6th most at 78%.

I’m not sure how a guy who typically calls the defense and plays 80ish percent of all snaps is considered a role player.

In the interview with John Johnson III, he stated he had called plays in LA and was told they were expecting him to continue that here.

He also sometimes lined up at MIKE in Dime packages. 

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43 minutes ago, ditchdigger said:

In the interview with John Johnson III, he stated he had called plays in LA and was told they were expecting him to continue that here.

He also sometimes lined up at MIKE in Dime packages. 

That’s good stuff and all, but still, there’s a history of a linebacker taking 80ish% of the snaps every year under Woods. That’s not a “role player”. That’s a significant contributor.

Unless we plan to run a defense unlike any other in NFL history, linebacker is a thing, and ours are arse.

Again, not asking for a bunch, just one good one.

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3 hours ago, bruceb said:

Does durability factor into player ratings in analytics?

If it does, why would we consider someone like Newsom or Phillips BPA at 26?

It should, considering the attrition we went through last year, especially at DB.

Phillips is a day 3 guy to me, and that's knowing nothing about his medicals. I don't see it with him. I could be loud wrong, but I would definitely err on the side of caution there.

Newsome could be in play at 59, but I like Meliwonfu more at that spot. Paulson Adebo in round 4 is also appealing. A lot of lengthy corners in this draft.

 

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31 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

That’s good stuff and all, but still, there’s a history of a linebacker taking 80ish% of the snaps every year under Woods. That’s not a “role player”. That’s a significant contributor.

Unless we plan to run a defense unlike any other in NFL history, linebacker is a thing, and ours are arse.

Again, not asking for a bunch, just one good one.

Good linebackers can be found outside of round 1, with much less risk.

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1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

That’s good stuff and all, but still, there’s a history of a linebacker taking 80ish% of the snaps every year under Woods. That’s not a “role player”. That’s a significant contributor.

Unless we plan to run a defense unlike any other in NFL history, linebacker is a thing, and ours are arse.

Again, not asking for a bunch, just one good one.

*year-two Jacob Phillips has entered the chat*

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On 3/22/2021 at 2:07 PM, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Also, fwiw, a lot of analytics favor coverage to pass rusher, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we went CB in round one and looked to find a DE day 2.

One factor seems to be overlooked here. 

A great pass rusher greatly improves the performance of all pass defenders.  The converse is not so true.

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1 hour ago, sonny44 said:

One factor seems to be overlooked here. 

A great pass rusher greatly improves the performance of all pass defenders.  The converse is not so true.

That’s absolutely not true.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-data-study-coverage-vs-pass-rush

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-data-study-coverage-vs-pass-rush-revisited

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-data-study-coverage-vs-pass-rush-part-three

A few key points from the articles above if you don’t care to read them in their entirety:

“during the PFF era, teams with elite coverage (67th percentile or better) and a poor pass rush (33rd percentile or worse) win, on average, about a game and a half more than teams with the reverse construction.”

“While a pass rush certainly helps, offenses can scheme away from it pretty easily (a la the Patriots in the AFC playoffs) and readily exploit weaknesses in coverage if their quarterback is good enough to do so.”

In 2019, we found what we’ve observed that each time we have studied how different PFF grade facets affect defensive efficiency, coverage correlates more highly to things like EPA allowed than pass-rush does. Some of the premier defenses in the NFL — the Patriots, Ravens and Bills, for example —are explicitly favoring coverage in their personnel preferences, while the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers have all made an effort to improve in the secondary through the draft, free agency and trades, and they have reaped the benefits as a result.”

 

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7 hours ago, ditchdigger said:

Good linebackers can be found outside of round 1, with much less risk.

Sure they can, just like every other position.  That said, the elite ones are typically found in round 1/2, just like every other positions. I’m not saying we NEED to spend the first on one and anything less is a failure, just that if a linebacker is BPA, take them.  I do think somewhere on day 1/2 we need to address LB though.

I get that we don’t need a 2 down run stuffer in the first, but a complete 3 down linebacker who excels in coverage and the run?  Oh yes we do.  
 

I also can’t think of a position group on this team that is as devoid of elite speed/athleticism as our linebackers.  They all look slow tbh. A bunch of lumbering slugs in space.

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